Rumor: 2022-2022 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part 14: Sakic goes back to bed

[Vaslof]

If Nuke signs for 5M Joe Sakic is a goddamn wizard

 

[ABasin]

Yeah pretty much. I would even argue JTC isn't overpaid at all. I think 3.5M for 30-35 points is very fair. That's the going rate for 3rd liners at this point in time. We're going to give Lehkonen that same money this summer as well. The issue I think people have is that JTC isn't on a discount contract. When you have guys like Mack, Toews, Makar, even Landy right now all making like 3M+ less then they should be making it impacts how they look at a guy who's simply making the money he is worth.


In terms of the 2C spot. They have to get someone IMO. Can't rely on Newhook to be a 2C in the final year of Mackinnon making half of what he is worth and thus our last great shot at a cup. But, they should have some cap space to work with as well. Cap is going up 1M this year, and our bonus overage penalty goes from 1.8M to just 25k next year so between the two that's 2.75M in cap space next year that we didn't have this year.


If we assume Nuke signs for 5M, that 2.75M essentially covers his raise. Then if Kadri and Burakosvky walk as UFAs, that would be in theory 9.5M to work with. I think they can sign or trade for a 2C in the ~6M range fairly reasonably if they wanted too. Then target a cheap 2nd line winger to replace Burakosvky.


If they buy out EJ, that's another 4M in space as well. Even better if they can trade him somewhere else. They could also potentially use Sam Girard as a trade chip to get the 2C. Especially if he continues to have a solid playoffs and can get rid of some of the stink around him in the post season from the Vegas series last year.

Pierce, I've been viewing the contract situation from a slightly different angle (though any way you look at it, some difficult decisions are in store for Sakic). Here's how I've been looking at it.

Right now, the following 5 players are costing the Avs about $17M: Kadri, Burakovski, Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Kuemper. I believe that next season, 3 of them will cost that same $17M: Nichushkin ($5-6M), Lehkonen ($4-4.5M), and Kuemper ($6-7M). Which means bye-bye to Kadri (which is a huge loss) and Burakovski (which is a modest loss).

If they decide to invest in that fashion, the Avs would then have a great 1st line in place, two 2nd line wings in place (Nichushkin/Lehkonen), and two 3rd line forwards in place also (Compher and Newhook). They'd have their top 5 defensemen signed (6, if you're comfortable with MacDermid), and both goaltenders signed. (I never really get worked up over 4th line guys and 6/7 defensemen, as semi-reasonable options are always available for $700/800K every offseason). With that scenario, they're short a 2C and a 3W.

Also, the EJ $6M I'm keeping in reserve for next offseason, as just about 100% of that will go to MacKinnon's new contract (MacKinnon's current $6M plus EJ's $6M, give or take a bit).

If they decide to sign a legit 2C, that's going to cost around $6M+ per (Kadri will likely cost even more than that). Which means Nichushkin is gone, plus another $1-2M.

 

[redacted]

Avs have acquired more centers in the last couple months and Newhook is scratched right now... I don't think their confidence with him at center is too high.

 

[ABasin]

Avs have acquired more centers in the last couple months and Newhook is scratched right now... I don't think their confidence with him at center is too high.

That's probably true, given the current lineup.

Do you believe that (unlike Compher) Newhook still has upside to his game? That it's a reasonable expectation that we'll see him improve as a player over the next few seasons?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Pierce, I've been viewing the contract situation from a slightly different angle (though any way you look at it, some difficult decisions are in store for Sakic). Here's how I've been looking at it.

Right now, the following 5 players are costing the Avs about $17M: Kadri, Burakovski, Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Kuemper. I believe that next season, 3 of them will cost that same $17M: Nichushkin ($5-6M), Lehkonen ($4-4.5M), and Kuemper ($6-7M). Which means bye-bye to Kadri (which is a huge loss) and Burakovski (which is a modest loss).

If they decide to invest in that fashion, the Avs would then have a great 1st line in place, two 2nd line wings in place (Nichushkin/Lehkonen), and two 3rd line forwards in place also (Compher and Newhook). They'd have their top 5 defensemen signed (6, if you're comfortable with MacDermid), and both goaltenders signed. (I never really get worked up over 4th line guys and 6/7 defensemen, as semi-reasonable options are always available for $700/800K every offseason). With that scenario, they're short a 2C and a 3W.

Also, the EJ $6M I'm keeping in reserve for next offseason, as just about 100% of that will go to MacKinnon's new contract (MacKinnon's current $6M plus EJ's $6M, give or take a bit).

If they decide to sign a legit 2C, that's going to cost around $6M+ per (Kadri will likely cost even more than that). Which means Nichushkin is gone, plus another $1-2M.

I think the numbers on Nuke/Lehkonen/Darcy are a little high IMO.


Perhaps I'm being optimistic, but I have them pegged more as:


Lehkonen - 3.5M
Nuke - 5M
Kuemper - 5.5M



I think Nukes production being up is somewhat a product of scoring being up. I think the Coleman contract is very fair value for him. I also wouldn't be totally surprised to see Nuke take slightly less, to get the security of a ~5-6 year deal. Considering he's never signed for more than 2 years in the league and was on his way out before things started clicking here with the Avs. I'm hoping the idea of say $30M over 6 years with the team that gave him a chance is enough.


With Lehkonen I think being an RFA will factor in here. I think he gets the exact same Contract we gave Compher a while back. 4x3.5M


If they come in at my numbers, that would mean 14M being spent on those 3 guys, so 3M left over. Beyond that, the 2.75M we get from A) Cap rising 1M and B) Bonus relief, and then we have 5.75M in space.


There's a few other avenues of relief we could earn as well. Most notably being Ryan Murray as his $2M coming off the books. Right now for next year on Defense we already have Toews/Makar/Girard/EJ/Byram/MacDermid signed. If they bring back Jack Johnson for example at 800k again then that saves a free $2M in space by moving on from Murray.



A lot of it will depend on what happens with Nuke/Lehkonen/Kuemper though for sure. Hopefully when the offseason does begin, Joe is quick to get those 3 contracts sorted out so they have a good idea of exactly how much they can spend on a 2C.

 

[The Abusement Park]

That's probably true, given the current lineup.

Do you believe that (unlike Compher) Newhook still has upside to his game? That it's a reasonable expectation that we'll see him improve as a player over the next few seasons?

I don’t see why there’d be much question of his upside. He looks a lot like a ~50pt guy going forwards. I think there could and should be some hesitation on whether he’s a center or not though.

 

[BHawk21]

This may be completely off base but

EJ and Girard for Murphy and Kubalik

Toews-Makar
Byram-Murphy
-Manson

and an extra 7 million in cap before signing kubalik. Murphy signed at 4.4 for 4 more years.

Chicago does this for age reasons

 

[thedoctor]

I think Newhook is the 2C next year, if only because of the cap situation to re-sign Nuke and Kuemper. If it's not working by the deadline, Sakic will look to add, and then we look to UFA.

Landeskog - Mackinnon - Rantanen
Lehk - Newhook - Nuke
someone - Compher - someone
someone - Myers - LOC

I agree with ABasin, not worth getting worked up about bottom 6ers, we'll figure it out.

 

[Foppa2118]

I really don't see them going with Newhook as 2C next year. Even 3C is in doubt for him. He just didn't have a strong enough season.

I think that had a lot to do with hitting the college wall, but the Avs will be a contender either way next year. They can't roll the dice on such an important role like 2C. I'm expecting they'll use an off season trade to address it.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Avs have acquired more centers in the last couple months and Newhook is scratched right now... I don't think their confidence with him at center is too high.

Hes going to end up a winger which is where he should be playing.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Compher would be pencilled in as the 2C before Newhook right now. Some growth in Newhook’s game could certainly change that quickly next year but it’s definitely Compher’s spot as of right now.

Speaking of Compher, I predict he has his best NHL season next year in his contract year. He’s been much improved this year as it is but I bet next year we see him engaging physically like we saw in him as a rookie.

 

[Avaholic29]

I really don't see them going with Newhook as 2C next year. Even 3C is in doubt for him. He just didn't have a strong enough season.

I think that had a lot to do with hitting the college wall, but the Avs will be a contender either way next year. They can't roll the dice on such an important role like 2C. I'm expecting they'll use an off season trade to address it.

For a 16th overall pick that was a pretty solid season. I don’t think he’s the solidified 2C next year either though.

 

[Foppa2118]

For a 16th overall pick that was a pretty solid season. I don’t think he’s the solidified 2C next year either though.

Yeah it was fine. His first half was pretty good. Showed some flashes of clutch ability too. He just fell off in the second half. Probably because he's not used to playing that many games. Next season will be a good test for him.

 

[Avaholic29]

Yeah it was fine. His first half was pretty good. Showed some flashes of clutch ability too. He just fell off in the second half. Probably because he's not used to playing that many games. Next season will be a good test for him.

Had a solid last stretch points wise and rarely played even 14-15 mins a game all year, he’s going to be a good one.

 

[niwotsblessing]

Compher would be pencilled in as the 2C before Newhook right now. Some growth in Newhook’s game could certainly change that quickly next year but it’s definitely Compher’s spot as of right now.

Speaking of Compher, I predict he has his best NHL season next year in his contract year. He’s been much improved this year as it is but I bet next year we see him engaging physically like we saw in him as a rookie.

Compher needs to get physically engaged starting next week in round 2. He floats around, but unlike Rants doesn't score.

Personally I'd be happy with him gone in the off-season as part of the re-tooling Sakic will need to accomplish. Not enough Try Hard in my view.

 

[AvStock]

Geeze, is Newhook really that much worst than say Jarvis, or other rookies who are playing this year?

 

[The Abusement Park]

Geeze, is Newhook really that much worst than say Jarvis, or other rookies who are playing this year?

I mean Jarvis has certainly been better than Newhook this year.

 

[Nihiliste]

I'm not too worried about Newhook getting scratched. He'll draw in soon when someone inevitably gets hurt. He's showing growing pains of going from college to the NHL. He'll figure it out, he's shown flashes. Everyone else on the roster is playing well right now too.

 

[Perratrooper]

What’s Nick Paul going to ask for in the off-season and could he be someone the Avs target as a 3C?

 

[BobRossColton]

Trade for Cirelli?

Not completely wild but nearly there, Girard, JTC and 2024 1st for Cirelli, Cernak and 2024 2nd.

 

[Foppa2118]

What’s Nick Paul going to ask for in the off-season and could he be someone the Avs target as a 3C?

It's too bad Joe didn't trade for him at the deadline. Came cheap too at just Mathieu Joseph + a 2024 4th for Paul at almost 50% retained.

Had a feeling he'd be a great fit on a team like the Avs/Bolts. He's been very good for them since the trade. 14 points in 21 games and some pretty good playoff games so far.

 

[Perratrooper]

Trade for Cirelli?

Not completely wild but nearly there, Girard, JTC and 2024 1st for Cirelli, Cernak and 2024 2nd.

They likely value Cernak more than Girard, so I don’t see them taking that package.

 

[redacted]

That's probably true, given the current lineup.

Do you believe that (unlike Compher) Newhook still has upside to his game? That it's a reasonable expectation that we'll see him improve as a player over the next few seasons?

I think Newhook will be a 55-65 point winger (maybe a touch more of the NHL insane scoring continues): He’s got good talent and work ethic, he just doesn’t have the goods at center. Compher makes a better center right now and that’s not great.

 

[BobRossColton]

They likely value Cernak more than Girard, so I don’t see them taking that package.

That's true, but Cernak could be a fantastic partner for Byram. Nuke-Cirelli-Hook would be a nice 2nd line.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Trade for Cirelli?

Not completely wild but nearly there, Girard, JTC and 2024 1st for Cirelli, Cernak and 2024 2nd.

Lol. And Tampa will run with Hedman, McDonough, Sergachev and Girard down the left side? Not remotely realistic, without even touching on the value (which is horrible for TB)