Rumor: 2022-2022 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part 14: Sakic goes back to bed

[John Mandalorian]

My hope is that he might want to play for his dad and be on a competitive team that should challenge for the cup in the near future. If he has no desire to play in Canada then obviously my hopes of getting him are dashed. Such is the life of a fan of a Canadian team, Canadian teams can't compete with the weather of the southern US (and most of the US for that matter) and don't have as favorable tax situations as Vegas, Florida, etc. While Manson was born in the US, I'm sure that he has at some time or another spent time in Canada given who his dad is and the fact that he played for Edmonton, Winnipeg, Montreal and Toronto. He may not remember much of his dads first 2 NHL stops since he was a toddler/young kid there, but he should at least remember his time in Montreal and Toronto assuming that he and his mom lived there with his dad back then (I don't know their family dynamic obviously). As for the covid situation in Canada, I don't live there but I know that they have been more strict than the US at least over the last year. I would assume that as the virus mutates and continues to weaken (hopefully) that at some point those restrictions should be eased.

He and his father have been around the sport long enough to know it's a business and that his dad could be cut loose the next time the Oilers hire a new coach. The risk of signing to live in a place for the main reason of playing for his father is going out on a long limb. His wife probably has more influence in deciding where he plays more than the father.

I'm not saying you're wrong 100%. I'm just talking about likelihoods.

Rather than overpay for FAs, do you think it might make more sense to target good players who are potential cap casulties like the Avs did with Toews? It's not like Denver is a big FA draw either but part of that is that JS refuses to overpay or go beyond terms that he's comfortable with.

 

[flyfysher]

JS refuses to overpay or go beyond terms that he's comfortable with.

This is true. Non-Avs fans have no idea just how so.

 

[MarkT]

I don't know everything I would do in the offeason, but re-signing Nuke and Manson would be top of my list along with extending MacKinnon. If I can get away without trading Girard then I'd do it. I'd also be looking for guys willing to take a pay cut to play here and win.

As much as I love Kadri, he's earned his big payday and his agent is Darren Ferris, so unless he's ready to take a lot less to stay, you wish him well and move on. Then, unless someone like Bergeron, Trocheck or Malkin falls in your lap, just go with Rantanen at 2C next season with the idea that Newhook (or Myers) can take on that role eventually so Rantanen can move back to the wing, unless of course Rants really thrives in the 2C role. It might be good to also sign someone else who can play center if necessary (Johan Larsson? Chris Tierney? Nick Paul!!), especially if trading Compher becomes necessary.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I don't know everything I would do in the offeason, but re-signing Nuke and Manson would be top of my list along with extending MacKinnon. If I can get away without trading Girard then I'd do it. I'd also be looking for guys willing to take a pay cut to play here and win.

As much as I love Kadri, he's earned his big payday and his agent is Darren Ferris, so unless he's ready to take a lot less to stay, you wish him well and move on. Then, unless someone like Bergeron, Trocheck or Malkin falls in your lap, just go with Rantanen at 2C next season with the idea that Newhook (or Myers) can take on that role eventually so Rantanen can move back to the wing, unless of course Rants really thrives in the 2C role. It might be good to also sign someone else who can play center if necessary (Johan Larsson? Chris Tierney? Nick Paul!!), especially if trading Compher becomes necessary.

If the Avs cool off on Kuemper, I wonder how much flexibility they will feel like they have in keeping Kadri? I can see the Avs doing a discount with lots of term or pay a lot for a couple of years.

 

[MarkT]

If the Avs cool off on Kuemper, I wonder how much flexibility they will feel like they have in keeping Kadri? I can see the Avs doing a discount with lots of term or pay a lot for a couple of years.

If they're really not sold on Newhook becoming the 2C at some point, they might go down that road, but Kadri is 32 next season, so decline is in the cards, and we've seen how bad he can be when he's not playing well. I haven't forgotten the way he played in the second half of last season.

 

[John Mandalorian]

If they're really not sold on Newhook becoming the 2C at some point, they might go down that road, but Kadri is 32 next season, so decline is in the cards, and we've seen how bad he can be when he's not playing well. I haven't forgotten the way he played in the second half of last season.

You're probably right. Although, I think it's more likely they target someone for trade. It's hard to imagine JS outbidding other teams for centers in free agency.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Going to be a huge summer, how well they handle it will play a big part in the teams success going forward.

MacKinnon has to get his extension, you do not play the waiting game with his contract
Nuke must be signed
Solve the goaltending
Sort out the #2C

 

[MarkT]

You're probably right. Although, I think it's more likely they target someone for trade. It's hard to imagine JS outbidding other teams for centers in free agency.

That's why I think Rantanen at 2C is the play. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the Devon Toews of centers out there for Joe to snatch.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Goaltending can't be solved by free agency. Very mediocre goalies available and everyone ask for huge money. Kuemper is the best available.

Tough spot. That's why I hated the trade. We are exactly same spot as previous summer. The trade was a waste .

 

[Drury_Sakic]

Almost everything the Avs do this summer IMO comes down to 2 things.

1) Does EJ Retire/LTIR himself?
2) What does Mac want?

It has come across in some interviews and speculation that perhaps EJ is going all in this playoffs and burning everything he has left because he is in his last year. Clearing his 6 next year goes a long ways towards allowing the Avs to keep players around, a Josh Manson as an example. For the record, I don't see the Avs trading a playing EJ. Maybe they could ship out his contract to an Arizona if he LTIR's himself out, but I just don't see Sakic asking him to waive his NTC if he wants to continue playing.

Mac's salary a year out is the other big what-if here. If he wants to get the big time 12-13 million I would not begrudge him. He deserves it. But if he settles in the 10-10.5 range, it allows the Avs to be a bit more adventurous. Him signing that deal this summer also adds some predictability into the process - he could hold until next summer and watch the cap likely grow just a bit more and his value inch up as he gets closer to UFA status. Heck, even 11-11.5 is a discount, but getting that deal in the books matters.

Once you know the answer to those two things then it allows you to focus on Nuke, Manson, Kadri, ect.

 

[MarkT]

Goaltending can't be solved by free agency. Very mediocre goalies available and everyone ask for huge money. Kuemper is the best available.

Tough spot. That's why I hated the trade. We are exactly same spot as previous summer. The trade was a waste .

We're not in the same place at all. We now have a ton of information and an existing relationship with the best (or at least one of the best) free agent goalies available. Also, what exactly was the alternative? Go with Frankie as the starter when he hadn't played the whole previous season? Who was the free agent starter still available at the time of the trade that could have won us even close to as many games as Kuemper?

Almost everything the Avs do this summer IMO comes down to 2 things.

1) Does EJ Retire/LTIR himself?
2) What does Mac want?

It has come across in some interviews and speculation that perhaps EJ is going all in this playoffs and burning everything he has left because he is in his last year. Clearing his 6 next year goes a long ways towards allowing the Avs to keep players around, a Josh Manson as an example. For the record, I don't see the Avs trading a playing EJ. Maybe they could ship out his contract to an Arizona if he LTIR's himself out, but I just don't see Sakic asking him to waive his NTC if he wants to continue playing.

Mac's salary a year out is the other big what-if here. If he wants to get the big time 12-13 million I would not begrudge him. He deserves it. But if he settles in the 10-10.5 range, it allows the Avs to be a bit more adventurous. Him signing that deal this summer also adds some predictability into the process - he could hold until next summer and watch the cap likely grow just a bit more and his value inch up as he gets closer to UFA status. Heck, even 11-11.5 is a discount, but getting that deal in the books matters.

Once you know the answer to those two things then it allows you to focus on Nuke, Manson, Kadri, ect.

I totally agree, but you also can't handcuff yourself by waiting for those two questions to be answered. Nuke, for example, should be re-signed before he can hit free agency (if he's willing).

 

[Pokecheque]

I read he was injured

Bear? I didn't read that anywhere. In fact Friedman mentioned on his pod that Bear and his camp can't be happy that he was kept out of the playoffs.

 

[Drury_Sakic]

That's why I think Rantanen at 2C is the play. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the Devon Toews of centers out there for Joe to snatch.

As long as the rest of the depth stays intact, meaning you keep Nuke on a decent deal, Mason maybe is retained, the rest of the forward depth is kept or replaced with like talented players - Helm, Sturm, Cogliano, Aubé-Kubel, ect, I think you take a flier on the 2nd line center job going to Newhook or maybe even audition Foudy or one of the other depth system players in the role.

The team has enough scoring depth for the regular season to sit with that roster. Depending on the outcome of the first half of the season or so, you then look to trade targets to upgrade if needed. There are quite a few 2C options coming up to UFA status next year on some tweener teams - likely a few are available next trade deadline and the Avs have some decent system depth to go trade for one. J.T. Miller, Pavelski, Larkin, Monahan, Toews. That list grows if you go one more year out and maybe try get a guy with term and look to the 2024 class or RFAs. Would you have to pay someone like a Newhook and/or a few other prospects, yeah, but the only way Newhook himself gets a shot at it is, well, if you give him a shot at it. Maybe you sign a 2/3rd line tweener center like a Stastny as backup on a shorter deal, but it would have to be someone wanting to win a cup and willing to take either a 1 year deal or a deal with some term at a favorable cap hit.

That said, the depth to make a trade for a 2nd line center is dependent on what happens with goaltending. If the Avs have to go all in on another big goalie trade this summer, then that weakens the ability to make that trade.

I totally agree, but you also can't handcuff yourself by waiting for those two questions to be answered. Nuke, for example, should be re-signed before he can hit free agency (if he's willing).

I suspect the Avs will know both these answers in short order after the season ends. Both likely all the faster if the Avs manage to win a cup. EJ is more likely to call it if he gets his name on a cup and I suspect Mac will only want it more if he gets one and will likely be more willing to help the team path its direction.

 

[Vaslof]

Why Rantanen as 2C? Just play him on the side he's used to playing. Nuke - Newhook - Rantanen will work. Lehkonen can take Rantanen's place on the 1st line. Or alternatively Nuke on 1st line and Lehkonen on 2nd. As long as we can re-sign Nuke we'll be good to go. Not that I'll complain if we improve even more, but there's only so much money to go around.

E: I guess another thing to consider is that Meyers is over 2 years older than Newhook. He could be another 2C option from inside the team.

 

[MarkT]

As long as the rest of the depth stays intact, meaning you keep Nuke on a decent deal, Mason maybe is retained, the rest of the forward depth is kept or replaced with like talented players - Helm, Sturm, Cogliano, Aubé-Kubel, ect, I think you take a flier on the 2nd line center job going to Newhook or maybe even audition Foudy or one of the other depth system players in the role.

The team has enough scoring depth for the regular season to sit with that roster. Depending on the outcome of the first half of the season or so, you then look to trade targets to upgrade if needed. There are quite a few 2C options coming up to UFA status next year on some tweener teams - likely a few are available next trade deadline and the Avs have some decent system depth to go trade for one. J.T. Miller, Pavelski, Larkin, Monahan, Toews. That list grows if you go one more year out and maybe try get a guy with term and look to the 2024 class or RFAs. Would you have to pay someone like a Newhook and/or a few other prospects, yeah, but the only way Newhook himself gets a shot at it is, well, if you give him a shot at it. Maybe you sign a 2/3rd line tweener center like a Stastny as backup on a shorter deal, but it would have to be someone wanting to win a cup and willing to take either a 1 year deal or a deal with some term at a favorable cap hit.

That said, the depth to make a trade for a 2nd line center is dependent on what happens with goaltending. If the Avs have to go all in on another big goalie trade this summer, then that weakens the ability to make that trade.

I think assuming Newhook can be the 2C when he hasn't shown the ability to do so yet is the exact same mistake the Avs made for years with Jost and Compher. The correct path for Newhook is to keep giving him shots at center when there are injuries, and if he plays consistently well, keep him there and move someone else to wing. That's why I like the idea of Rantanen as center, because he is the ideal candidate to move back to wing if Newhook blossoms.

Also, I have questions about your list of centers with Pavelski (who will be 39), Toews (who will be 35 and looks cooked) and Monahan (who played himself onto Calgary's 4th line).

The issue is centers are very difficult and expensive to acquire. If JT Miller and Larkin go to market, they will have tons of suitors, so the price will be very steep. If we're trading for a genuine 2C, the price will be very high. I know Sakic has performed some magic in the past, but I simply don't see a clear path to a 2C that isn't based on guys already on the roster.

Why Rantanen as 2C? Just play him on the side he's used to playing. Nuke - Newhook - Rantanen will work. Lehkonen can take Rantanen's place on the 1st line. Or alternatively Nuke on 1st line and Lehkonen on 2nd. As long as we can re-sign Nuke we'll be good to go. Not that I'll complain if we improve even more, but there's only so much money to go around.

What exactly has Newhook done to show you he's ready to be the full time 2C?

 

[The Abusement Park]

Why Rantanen as 2C? Just play him on the side he's used to playing. Nuke - Newhook - Rantanen will work. Lehkonen can take Rantanen's place on the 1st line. Or alternatively Nuke on 1st line and Lehkonen on 2nd. As long as we can re-sign Nuke we'll be good to go. Not that I'll complain if we improve even more, but there's only so much money to go around.

Newhook hasn’t been good at C in the bottom 6. He’s not anywhere near ready to be the 2C.

 

[Vaslof]

Newhook hasn’t been good at C in the bottom 6. He’s not anywhere near ready to be the 2C.

He's not a bottom 6 player. Those are not his strengths. If you want him to score, you play him on a scoring line. If you want him to become the next Jost, then you play him with the grinders and watch him become one.

 

[The Abusement Park]

He's not a bottom 6 player. Those are not his strengths. If you want him to score, you play him on a scoring line. If you want him to become the next Jost, then you play him with the grinders and watch him become one.

If we were rebuilding than absolutely. But we’re 1 win away from a cup final. Newhook hasn’t show anywhere near enough to be this teams 2C tonight and going forwards.

Next year he’ll get a shot in the top 6 I’m sure but now is not that time.

 

[MarkT]

He's not a bottom 6 player. Those are not his strengths. If you want him to score, you play him on a scoring line. If you want him to become the next Jost, then you play him with the grinders and watch him become one.

Newhook has had plenty of looks on the 2nd line, and I'm sure he'll get more, but you can't run a team by just gifting guys specific spots in the lineup based on where you drafted them and their potential. Newhook needs to at least show he can be a center in the NHL before the Avs can make decisions with him penciled into the 2nd line center position.

Also, it's not like the Avs 3rd line is made up of a bunch of goons.

 

[Drury_Sakic]

Newhook has had plenty of looks on the 2nd line, and I'm sure he'll get more, but you can't run a team by just gifting guys specific spots in the lineup based on where you drafted them and their potential. Newhook needs to at least show he can be a center in the NHL before the Avs can make decisions with him penciled into the 2nd line center position.

Also, it's not like the Avs 3rd line is made up of a bunch of goons.

The problem is young players in the NHL are not like in the NHL video games - they don't instantly show that they can be that player over summer - they need to be given chances at the job - sometimes without a safety net. Its a slow progression that takes time, some games they look the part, others they do not.

I would argue part of the reason why Kerfoot, Jost, and Compher never really developed into that 2nd line center is they were not ever really given the sink or swim opportunity. Maybe they were not ever going to even in a perfect world - but all three have IMO had their development stunted by sub-optimal development and their role being unclear and unfocused. Some games they are wingers, some centers, sometimes both. Sometimes they are asked to score, sometimes defend, sometimes grind it out and provide energy. And yes, as a second line center they of course will do all those things too -- but the point is that when your role changes game to game, it can be hard to focus your development path and progression.

 

[The Abusement Park]

The problem is young players in the NHL are not like in the NHL video games - they don't instantly show that they can be that player over summer - they need to be given chances at the job - sometimes without a safety net. Its a slow progression that takes time, some games they look the part, others they do not.

I would argue part of the reason why Kerfoot, Jost, and Compher never really developed into that 2nd line center is they were not ever really given the sink or swim opportunity. Maybe they were not ever going to even in a perfect world - but all three have IMO had their development stunted by sub-optimal development and their role being unclear and unfocused.

Kerfoot, Compher and Jost all had time on the 2nd line? Jost was never going to be a 2nd liner ever anywhere.

 

[Vaslof]

Alright we have two different philosophies about how to develop players. Putting that aside, how do we afford a stronger 2nd liner while also paying Nuke, Kuemper or another 1G, Manson or another right side D? Or do you just play Rants at 2C and Newhook at the wing, both playing on the other guys natural position. It just reminds me of people saying to play MacKinnon on the wing that he will never be able to center.

 

[Drury_Sakic]

Kerfoot, Compher and Jost all had time on the 2nd line? Jost was never going to be a 2nd liner ever anywhere.

You are right. But it was very spotty, up and down, with little consistency. Their development was poor. Again, maybe they all would never have made the jump with even the best of development - but the Avs did not do themselves any favors. Having all 3 also made it more complicated.

Newhook at the least was delayed a year. Jost started to early, he should have been forced to play one more season in College.

I am not opposed to the Avs looking to the market for a center upgrade -- just that arguably they have the answer in Newhook and giving that a real go for 30-40 games is IMO the answer given that they have some pieces to trade if not. The alternative is to probably make a trade for a player like Miller this summer -- with Newhook probably being the big piece in that deal. Maybe that is the answer, but maybe you see what you have first?

Guess we will get some sort of look these next few games to see what way to go as well.

 

[shadow1]

I thought EJ should've been bought out last summer due to his huge salary and massive health issues, but I'll eat my Colorado Avalanche "rivalry night" hat if it happens now.

Johnson has had a great year (relative to expectations). 25 points with a +22 in the regular season; 5 points with a +10 in 13 playoff games so far. He's only 34 and was healthy all season, so there's no way in heck he walks away from $6M next season year. He and Byram have gone together like PB&J, so I don't see the incentive to do EJ dirty by sending him to Arizona.

Josh Manson has been very solid in the playoffs and had a few great games against St. Louis, but Sakic shouldn't move heaven and earth to retain him. He was downright brutal in at least a third of the regular season games he played, and had a couple of tough playoff games sprinkled in. If Manson wants to take a short term, team friendly deal, so be it. A long term contract won't age well.

 

[MarkT]

The problem is young players in the NHL are not like in the NHL video games - they don't instantly show that they can be that player over summer - they need to be given chances at the job - sometimes without a safety net. Its a slow progression that takes time, some games they look the part, others they do not.

I would argue part of the reason why Kerfoot, Jost, and Compher never really developed into that 2nd line center is they were not ever really given the sink or swim opportunity. Maybe they were not ever going to even in a perfect world - but all three have IMO had their development stunted by sub-optimal development and their role being unclear and unfocused. Some games they are wingers, some centers, sometimes both. Sometimes they are asked to score, sometimes defend, sometimes grind it out and provide energy. And yes, as a second line center they of course will do all those things too -- but the point is that when your role changes game to game, it can be hard to focus your development path and progression.

I've never played the NHL video games, so I don't know what they're like.

It honestly sounds like you want the Avs to value player development over winning, which only makes sense if they're a rebuilding team. Nobody on a contending team should be handed a job until they've earned it. You want to talk about how to develop a player, look at Nuke. He started out on the bottom lines, and played well. Then we injuries hit he got moved up, but he didn't get a permanent top 6 role until he had shown he could play well in the top 6 consistently. Oh, and his role changed from playing defensively to playing a two-way game, and he adjusted.

The Avs gave Newhook long looks as the 3C, and he never managed to play consistently well in that position. Anyone in the NHL who is a 2C should at least be able to put together strings of good games on the 3rd line. Heck, Newhook hasn't shown consistent offensive performance much at all yet. He'll have a good game, then go silent for a while. And that's fine. That's what I expect from a rookie. What I don't expect is for him to suddenly thrive if Bednar tells him next season that he's now the 2C.

And yeah, sure that might work, but if the Avs make all their offseason moves assuming Newhook will be the 2C, and then he can't cut it there, they'll have to move someone else to that spot, which will just create another hole in the lineup. This is precisely the mistake the Avs kept making with Compher and Jost. They left the 2C spot open for one of them to claim, and neither could do it. The result was the Avs were a one line team for years.