Prospect Info: 2022 - 1st OA] Juraj Slafkovsky (LW) Part 4

[Belial]

Normally agree with your posts. This feels like a classic appeal to authority imo. You don’t have to have had played or coached the game at the NHL level to give a good opinion. Otherwise, why are any of us here? We’d have to value Grant McKagg’s opinion or Michel Therien’s over posters here because they’ve done it before? I don’t think so.

Marty is not perfect and has flaws of his own. I don’t think anyone believes he is intentionally messing up Slaf, but there is no good reason for 10 mins a night. You can try to dress it up and sugar coat it all night long. The most important aspect of an 18 year olds development is “ice time”, without it, development stalls. If he’s not good enough for 14-15mins a night he’s in the wrong league, if he is, but this is Marty’s master plan in teaching Slaf he is doing it wrong. I don’t care if Marty talks to him everyday.

The idea that more minutes automatically equals best for development is complete BS!

How come we've seen and we keep seeing a lot of NCAA players doing great in the league?

They play a lot fewer games down there compared to the CHL or NHL.

Somehow the lack of ice time doesn't impede them to develop into great players...

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Normally agree with your posts. This feels like a classic appeal to authority imo. You don’t have to have had played or coached the game at the NHL level to give a good opinion. Otherwise, why are any of us here? We’d have to value Grant McKagg’s opinion or Michel Therien’s over posters here because they’ve done it before? I don’t think so.

Marty is not perfect and has flaws of his own. I don’t think anyone believes he is intentionally messing up Slaf, but there is no good reason for 10 mins a night. You can try to dress it up and sugar coat it all night long. The most important aspect of an 18 year olds development is “ice time”, without it, development stalls. If he’s not good enough for 14-15mins a night he’s in the wrong league, if he is, but this is Marty’s master plan in teaching Slaf he is doing it wrong. I don’t care if Marty talks to him everyday.

In my long legal and business career I have been accused of many things but never being a supplicant to authority or power. I pride myself in my contrarianism. What I fail to see is how playing 5 or 7 minutes more a game against lesser opposition will enhance or accelerate this young player’s development. I loved what I saw last night: a player who played with speed, power and elan. Slafkovsky played a disruptive game last night. He was noticeable. He hit. He pursued. He was around the puck. He created scoring chances. He started to show elements of the player everyone hoped he will be. Is he there yet? No. He’s 18. He’s a kid in a man’s body. But last night he showed his immense potential.

I will remind you of another promising young Montreal player who the fans complained about his limited usage. When Yvan Cournoyer first arrived in the NHL, Toe Blake only used him on the power play. He was the fastest, most dynamic player on the team. As he sat stapled to the bench, the fans use to chant impatiently ‘On veux Cournoyer’. The chant use to rock the old Forum. Blake remained unmoved. Cournoyer’s ice time never increased. Those limited minutes early in his career did not hamper Cournoyer’s development. But what do I know, being a slave to authority?

 

[Habs Halifax]

No I’m not wrong, the proof is in the pudding.

I actually think Slaf is lacking talent to play with. Suzuki is the only center with the right offensive vision to work with Slaf. Monahan is playing well but he don't fit Slaf. Dvorak and Evans don't either.

Slaf looks good to me. Certainly has development growth to go through but imagine how it would look if we actually had two legit top 2C's?

I've seen many situations where his line mates are not passing it to him.

 

[ReHabs]

It's interesting that you would even take into account his numbers at such a short tournament given how you tend to ignore his tournament production against adults (Olympics and WC).


He didn't score twice against Kazakhstan. At least get your facts straight when trying to be a smart ass.

Yes, I am sure that it was the game against Kazakhstan that convinced HuGo to draft him and not scoring 7 goals in 7 games and being tournament MVP at the Olympics while playing mostly on the 4th line of a team that wasn't even considered a contender, or the 9 points in 8 games at WC while being totally misused as a screen guy on the PP.

I am also sure Slaf values that game against Kazakhstan over his silver medal from the Hlinka Gretzky Cup and his bronze medal from the Olympics and his second place in the Finnish Liiga.

I dismiss tournament numbers with regard to draft picks because I find it's too noisy in predicting future NHL success. League play is a far better indicator (though imperfect) of suitability and likelihood of future success.

Conversely, if now that he's in the NHL and the reigning 1OA, he underproduces against WJC opponents my concern would be that his playmaking ability really is not sufficient -- since he will be back on international ice and playing against much weaker opposition. His playmaking ability (which means his ability to produce points, not "beautiful passes") is the biggest question mark I see in the player. His size, speed, stride, jawline, etc. are all fine and dandy but if he won't be able to put up points then he won't be any better than Josh Anderson or Joel Armia (... GOD FORBID!)

Slaf put up two points on mighty Kazakhstan at the WC, not two goals. My mistake. His performance at the D-list Olympics is irrelevant imo, and his performance at the WC is only somewhat relevant -- but we don't need to litigate this. He's drafted, he was bound to be a topX pick, and he's our 1OA. So we have to have a certain level of expectations from him as a 1OA (ie we can't just be impressed by "beautiful passes" that don't accomplish anything on the scoresheet) and we also have to root for his success and be optimistic (something I admit I struggle with).

I think HuGo drafted him because Gorton has a nasty, hardly concealed fetish for the unicorn winger. Kaako, Laf, and now Slaf. Let's hope third time's the charm

 

[Habs Halifax]

I dismiss tournament numbers with regard to draft picks because I find it's too noisy in predicting future NHL success. League play is a far better indicator (though imperfect) of suitability and likelihood of future success.

Conversely, if now that he's in the NHL and the reigning 1OA, he underproduces against WJC opponents my concern would be that his playmaking ability really is not sufficient -- since he will be back on international ice and playing against much weaker opposition. His playmaking ability (which means his ability to produce points, not "beautiful passes") is the biggest question mark I see in the player. His size, speed, stride, jawline, etc. are all fine and dandy but if he won't be able to put up points then he won't be any better than Josh Anderson or Joel Armia (... GOD FORBID!)

Slaf put up two points on mighty Kazakhstan at the WC, not two goals. My mistake. His performance at the D-list Olympics is irrelevant imo, and his performance at the WC is only somewhat relevant -- but we don't need to litigate this. He's drafted, he was bound to be a topX pick, and he's our 1OA. So we have to have a certain level of expectations from him as a 1OA (ie we can't just be impressed by "beautiful passes" that don't accomplish anything on the scoresheet) and we also have to root for his success and be optimistic (something I admit I struggle with).

I think HuGo drafted him because Gorton has a nasty, hardly concealed fetish for the unicorn winger. Kaako, Laf, and now Slaf. Let's hope third time's the charm

I actually think 50% or more of our fan base don't understand what kind of player Slaf is. Several fans in the offseason tried to tell me he is a play driver or can drive a line from the wing. Comical

1st OA expectations is a trap. It was not a deep draft and we have to remember that most of that top 10 projected to be 2nd tier type talent (including Slaf). Possible he turns into a top line winger but lets not peg him to that with expectations and pressure and obsession.

I want to see how he looks once we find a good center for him to play with. You put Rantanten with either of Monahan, Dvorak, or Evans and he would not be a pt/game player. Reality

 

[rik schau]

I actually think Slaf is lacking talent to play with. Suzuki is the only center with the right offensive vision to work with Slaf. Monahan is playing well but he don't fit Slaf. Dvorak and Evans don't either.

Slaf looks good to me. Certainly has development growth to go through but imagine how it would look if we actually had two legit top 2C's?

I've seen many situations where his line mates are not passing it to him.

You mean those noted playmakers in Pezzetta and Evans? I somehow doubt they'd even be able to pass him the salt and pepper.lol.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You mean those noted playmakers in Pezzetta and Evans? I somehow doubt they'd even be able to pass him the salt and pepper.lol.

It don't matter to me if it's the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th line. Monahan, Dvorak, and Evans are not the right centers for Slaf. Monahan maybe but he's not an offensive gifted type. More like a 200' center who does the little things well.

Here is a question, what centers does Slovakia have for the next WJC? Very curious to see who he would play with if we send him.

 

[ReHabs]

I actually think 50% or more of our fan base don't understand what kind of player Slaf is. Several fans in the offseason tried to tell me he is a play driver or can drive a line from the wing. Comical

1st OA expectations is a trap. It was not a deep draft and we have to remember that most of that top 10 projected to be 2nd tier type talent (including Slaf). Possible he turns into a top line winger but lets not peg him to that with expectations and pressure and obsession.

I want to see how he looks once we find a good center for him to play with. You put Rantanten with either of Monahan, Dvorak, or Evans and he would not be a pt/game player. Reality

I'd like to see him with better players too -- do you think he is prevented from going up in lines/TOI because MSL doesn't think he's earned it or because MSL doesn't think he has the stamina/ability to play against better opposition?

As for expectations, if you really believe he is a second-tier talent then you should be very annoyed he was rushed to the NHL.

 

[Tyson]

He has tons of potential...a blind person can see it.
Hopefully he will be developed properly.
I have confidence in Hughes.

Where I don't have confidence is with the idiots in Laval.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'd like to see him with better players too -- do you think he is prevented from going up in lines/TOI because MSL doesn't think he's earned it or because MSL doesn't think he has the stamina/ability to play against better opposition?

As for expectations, if you really believe he is a second-tier talent then you should be very annoyed he was rushed to the NHL.

Even if he plays more and higher in the line-up, he sill needs a better center than Monahan, Dvorak, and Evans IMO.

MSL is protecting him to some degree. 4th line minutes with 2nd PP time. I'm OK with this cause he is 18 and very young and we need to let him gain confidence in the puck management area. NHL is tough man and so many 18 year olds have struggled lately.

 

[WeThreeKings]

He has tons of potential...a blind person can see it.
Hopefully he will be developed properly.
I have confidence in Hughes.

Where I don't have confidence is with the idiots in Laval.

His progression has been good at the NHL level.. he just needs more minutes and opportunity. Sending him to Laval would only placate the fears of those who only scouted Slaf using his hockeydb page.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He has tons of potential...a blind person can see it.
Hopefully he will be developed properly.
I have confidence in Hughes.

Where I don't have confidence is with the idiots in Laval.

I don't expect him to drive a line from the wing. He can make gains on the wing and get more comfortable but at some point, we need to find a good center for him.

If not Suzuki, who? Beck or PLD? We need a puck possession center who has talent. That's when I see us getting the best results from Slaf.

 

[rik schau]

It don't matter to me if it's the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th line. Monahan, Dvorak, and Evans are not the right centers for Slaf. Monahan maybe but he's not an offensive gifted type. More like a 200' center who does the little things well.

Here is a question, what centers does Slovakia have for the next WJC? Very curious to see who he would play with if we send him.

I actually don't like any of the lines,not sure what Marty is doing.
I know squat about juniors but think Slaf would be better off with a shifty center with speed and passing ability.Beck comes to mind.

 

[Jaaanosik]

I dismiss tournament numbers with regard to draft picks because I find it's too noisy in predicting future NHL success. League play is a far better indicator (though imperfect) of suitability and likelihood of future success.

...

Stats, stats, ... and more stats.
Stats are not the only input factor that can predict the future performance.
It appears you are overplaying the card.
Would you predict Tage Thompson's future (the last couple of years) performance based on his first four years?
Would you predict the future performance of Jonathan Cheechoo after he scored 56 goals in his third year?

 

[Jaaanosik]

...we also have to root for his success and be optimistic (something I admit I struggle with).

Do you struggle with rooting for him or being optimistic, or both?
Just curious.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I actually don't like any of the lines,not sure what Marty is doing.
I know squat about juniors but think Slaf would be better off with a shifty center with speed and passing ability.Beck comes to mind.

I think MSL is trying to stick with stability with what he has. Players like stability and he knows this is important as a former star in the NHL.

 

[ReHabs]

Stats, stats, ... and more stats.
Stats are not the only input factor that can predict the future performance.
It appears you are overplaying the card.
Would you predict Tage Thompson's future (the last couple of years) performance based on his first four years?
Would you predict the future performance of Jonathan Cheechoo after he scored 56 goals in his third year?

I like quantifiable data and I bet you I'd succeed more often than your vibes-and-homerism based analysis. It's funny ou brought up stats earlier in this thread to someone else. Almost as if you have no argument against stats, you just dislike stats that make your position (that Slaf is a guaranteed success) look untenable.

Tage Thompson is not quite the outlier you make him out to be -- he wasn't drafted with the 1OA but he did well enough in NCAA and then needed seasoning in the AHL. In the AHL he demonstrated something Slaf has not yet so far: the ability to produce points in a league setting. I'd be only slightly disappointed if Slaf followed his trajectory but he's already diverged and been rushed to the NHL. The 1OA shouldn't need to be 24 years old to make an impact in the NHL. He shouldn't have been the 1OA in that case.

Cheechoo was an outlier for sure. Not sure how that player from many years ago is relevant to the 1OA who's been scouted and viewed from all angels.

Do you struggle with rooting for him or being optimistic, or both?
Just curious.

I root for Slaf's success. I struggle with being optimistic about it.

 

[rik schau]

I think MSL is trying to stick with stability with what he has. Players like stability and he knows this is important as a former star in the NHL.

No doubt,he has hardly deviated much from the training camp formations,wrote stuff on paper and stuck with it. Seems to me he squandered camp by his stubbornness to not experiment more.

 

[Jaaanosik]

I like quantifiable data and I bet you I'd succeed more often than your vibes-and-homerism based analysis. It's funny ou brought up stats earlier in this thread to someone else. Almost as if you have no argument against stats, you just dislike stats that make your position (that Slaf is a guaranteed success) look untenable.

Tage Thompson is not quite the outlier you make him out to be -- he wasn't drafted with the 1OA but he did well enough in NCAA and then needed seasoning in the AHL. In the AHL he demonstrated something Slaf has not yet so far: the ability to produce points in a league setting. I'd be only slightly disappointed if Slaf followed his trajectory but he's already diverged and been rushed to the NHL. The 1OA shouldn't need to be 24 years old to make an impact in the NHL. He shouldn't have been the 1OA in that case.

Cheechoo was an outlier for sure. Not sure how that player from many years ago is relevant to the 1OA who's been scouted and viewed from all angels.


I root for Slaf's success. I struggle with being optimistic about it.

The 'successful' future performance prediction can be made only on multi-factor input analysis.
Using only limited stats (P, G, A) is not going to give us the most accurate prediction formula.
That is the problem I see.

Stats are good, I love stats, ... only when properly used.
I used Tage and Jonathan to point out stats and the future performance prediction problem, not where they were drafted.

Hint: When I use language as 'input factors, outcomes' it should ring a bell I work with stats.

Edit: The beautiful passes will translate to better more advanced stats for better multi-factor analysis.
That's optimistic.

 

[Schooner Guy]

I root for Slaf's success. I struggle with being optimistic about it.

Stop it! You're killing me!!!

 

[JoelWarlord]

One thing I do think is quite funny about the concern about point totals is that Slafkovsky has made two crisp 10/10 cross-ice passes to Anderson in the last 3 games which Anderson just completely flubbed, but by focusing so much on raw points, those passes are diminished in importance relative to two pretty chintzy assists off a flukey deflection and a seeing-eye wrister from Xhekaj.

Make that three in the last 5 or 6 games now.

 

[Retired]

In my long legal and business career I have been accused of many things but never being a supplicant to authority or power. I pride myself in my contrarianism. What I fail to see is how playing 5 or 7 minutes more a game against lesser opposition will enhance or accelerate this young player’s development. I loved what I saw last night: a player who played with speed, power and elan. Slafkovsky played a disruptive game last night. He was noticeable. He hit. He pursued. He was around the puck. He created scoring chances. He started to show elements of the player everyone hoped he will be. Is he there yet? No. He’s 18. He’s a kid in a man’s body. But last night he showed his immense potential.

I will remind you of another promising young Montreal player who the fans complained about his limited usage. When Yvan Cournoyer first arrived in the NHL, Toe Blake only used him on the power play. He was the fastest, most dynamic player on the team. As he sat stapled to the bench, the fans use to chant impatiently ‘On veux Cournoyer’. The chant use to rock the old Forum. Blake remained unmoved. Cournoyer’s ice time never increased. Those limited minutes early in his career did not hamper Cournoyer’s development. But what do I know, being a slave to authority?

Keep up the critical thinking and respectful conversations; the world needs more of it.

Agreed on your assessment on Slaf for when he looks good and also these days it seems more video, gym and practice is the trend vs playing more. I’m also quite frustrated with his limited minutes and hope playing with Monahan would mean 5v5 play against bigger opposition and higher skill, more experienced lines mates. Also most our other wingers make my eyes bleed.

Howeveeeer

Damphousse showed sequences in the D-zone on rds last night (he likes the kid) where Slaf was lost on 3-4 consecutive plays in the same sequence in the D-zone, and as such Marty can’t really give him big minutes yet.

I feel MSL has a bit of a challenge in that he both wants to win (mostly for culture and developing good habits I imagine) and not rush development, meanwhile the vets have mostly mailed it in…

 

[ReHabs]

The 'successful' future performance prediction can be made only on multi-factor input analysis.
Using only limited stats (P, G, A) is not going to give us the most accurate prediction formula.
That is the problem I see.

Stats are good, I love stats, ... only when properly used.
I used Tage and Jonathan to point out stats and the future performance prediction problem, not where they were drafted.

Hint: When I use language as 'input factors, outcomes' it should ring a bell I work with stats.

I don't only use limited stats and never said my approach is even right. But it is my approach and so far we've seen Slaf struggle to put up points. This is not a complicated concept: he has not put up a significant PPG anywhere he's played since leaving the children's leagues.

If you work with stats you'd know there are likely events and there are events that are Std Dev.s away from expected. Cheechoo is irrelevant to any discussion, no need to bring it up other than to expose your unfamiliarity with some of these concepts. Thompson is not so much of an outlier as he is a somewhat late-bloomer who had his career nearly derailed due to the Buffalo curse and Covid hitting at the same time. Two examples that don't really fit with the analysis of the 1OA.

For instance, when I say nobody with Slaf's Draft-year PPG in Liiga ever hit a high NHL ppg I don't mean that a high draft-year Liiga PPG is a necessary indicator that the player will have a high NHL ppg. Many here had trouble with that argument. The only player that came close is Roope Hintz, and guess what? -- he wasn't drafted in the first round.

 

[Sorinth]

In my long legal and business career I have been accused of many things but never being a supplicant to authority or power. I pride myself in my contrarianism. What I fail to see is how playing 5 or 7 minutes more a game against lesser opposition will enhance or accelerate this young player’s development.

Well first off he's not playing 5-7 minutes. Exaggerating doesn't really help.

And although it's not just you as many are making this claim but I find it kind of it ironic that the talk is about lesser linemates/opposition. Because if he goes to the AHL he will go up against even lesser opposition and have even worse linemates then he currently does.

I loved what I saw last night: a player who played with speed, power and elan. Slafkovsky played a disruptive game last night. He was noticeable. He hit. He pursued. He was around the puck. He created scoring chances. He started to show elements of the player everyone hoped he will be. Is he there yet? No. He’s 18. He’s a kid in a man’s body. But last night he showed his immense potential.

The description above didn't apply to Slafkovsky at the beginning of the season, so the proof is in the pudding. Even if we don't see how he can develop properly given his usage we can clearly see the results are there. And there's know way to know if a different path would have achieved similar results or not.

Now that said I don't think 4th line is the ideal development environment, however that doesn't mean a player can't benefit development wise by spending a short period on the 4th line to start out. The key though is it should be short, as too long in that kind of role does risk stalling a players development. For Slafkovsky he hasn't yet hit 20 games so it's not yet a concern for me. For reference Suzuki last game with Cousins and Weal on the 4th line was game # 37 (Dec 23rd).

An important part of development is there needs to be growth of responsibility/role. That's one reason starting on the 4th line without a ton of minutes can be good for development, it's easy to steadily add to the role as the season goes on. And that for me is what I want to see from the coaching staff with regards to Slaf, I'm fine with the slow approach but that means steadily increasing his role throughout the season.

 

[417]

Make that three in the last 5 or 6 games now.

Coaching staff should pay attention because teams are overplaying the Suzuki-to-Caufield cross ice pass.

They don't respect whoever is playing the point (In this case, it's usually Dach who has zero interest in shooting from there).