The last forward drafted 1st OA to have done so was Nico Hischier. Judging by the names to have been drafted recently, they've mostly disappointed (in the last 5 drafts). But if you look before that, you have incredible players such as McDavid and Matthews that went first overall and who had a ton of success in their rookie years. I don't think looking at the past necessarily is a good indicator of the future. Lafrenière has been lackluster so far, but that doesn't mean he won't step up in the next few years. Jack Hughes came off mediocre rookie and sophomore seasons to show that he can be a star in this league, if only he can stay healthy. I think looking at the draft only shows that there is no sure-fire way of predicting a player's trajectory. Unless you're a special talent, such as McDavid.