Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft: The Home Stretch, Draft July 23-24

[Frk It]

No winger available to us at 6 is on a different level than the LD and Cs available to us.
If there was, I'd draft them.
But there aren't. Not that I can see.
Nothing in HP's Black Book makes me feel like I missing out by skipping Eklund or Clarke or Guenther.
Even with Eklund at #2 - he's a 5'10 winger with slightly above average skating.

And I have changed my opinion.
I didn't have Edvinsson this high.
And I also had Wallstedt higher.

So HP was the absolute authority when they ranked Sanderson high last year.... but them ranking Eklund highly carries no weight.

Funny how that goes...

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

After perusing HockeyProspect's book and reading their take the key players who may or may not be available to us at 6...

• The big change is I'm more comfortable with Edvinsson at 6.
• Despite Hughes falling to 11, I'm still fine with him at 6.
• I'm fine with Kent Johnson @ 6 if Edvinsson or Hughes are gone.
• Not sold on Eklund for the Wings.
• Wallstedt falls a bit for me. I'm not sure I'm OK with either Wallstedt or Cossa. My belief in taking a goalie at 6 was a bit too frail to have the Wallstedt report come out right now.

So my draft board for that 6th overall pick now looks like:

1. Power - To be honest, I haven't even considered him because he won't be there.
2. Hughes - Like Byfield and Sanderson last year, I think people forget he's super, super young. He's even younger than those two were.
3. Edvinsson - The idea a fleet-footed 6'4 defenseman next to 6'5 Seider, or maybe on the other pairing, sounds too good.
4. Johnson - if he bombs, 3rd line winger. If he's great, maybe a 1C. f*** it. Go for gold. He's not young. In fact, he's among the older kids in the draft. But he's physically behind everyone. He's got room to improve everything a lot. A lot of these other prospects coming in at 6'1 200 are athletically already at or close to their peak.
5. Beniers - Larkin 2.0.
6. McTavish - Heavy center with a shot and grit. Opposite of Johnson, in that I wonder if he might be physically maxed out just beating up on weaker kids.

For me - I really don't want McTavish either.
I want someone from the top 5. I think Johson will be there.
Wallstedt was probably in the 3-6 range before this.

I think you're a bit off in the Beniers/Larkin comparison. He's probably more Ryan OReilly or Sean Coutourier than Larkin.

And for what it's worth McTavish was beating up on adults in Switzerland as well. Not just kids from Belarus.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Honestly I don't agree at all. While I think he has a lot of developing left to do, and is very uncertain to hit his very high ceiling, I think his skating, size and excellent gap make him damn near certain to be a second pairing defensive defenseman. He's already NHL ready at defending in transition IMO and I'd be surprised if he he can't develop everything he needs to be effective in his own end.

Now the risk with him, as far as I can tell, is if he can be something more than a less physical Erik Cernak. If he cleans up his passing and develops his O-zone game, he'll be a premier two way defenseman. I think Edvinsson is the second safest defenseman and third safest player altogether in the draft behind Power and Beniers. Hughes who needs a lot of work defensively and Clarke who's skating form may hold him back are both a lot more uncertain to stick in the top 4 for me.

I am with you. I don't see Edvinsson as risky at all. He is long, mobile and can actually defend. At the very least you are getting a competent middle pair guy who can eat some real minutes. Decision making with the puck and defending are two separate things.

 

[jkutswings]

Decision making with the puck and defending are two separate things.

But couldn't that lead to a guy who is great at taking the puck away from forwards... and then promptly gives it right back?

 

[Martinez]

About time for us to post our draft lists

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Interesting to see Sillinger so high on a couple newer lists. I was kind of curious why McTavish had been slowly climbing lists while Sillinger remained largely in that 10-20 range despite consistently good production in the USHL this year. Neither he nor McTavish really match the profile of player I like to see us bet on in the top 10, but I definitely see the appeal of both players and could certainly come to terms with either if they end up our pick.

I do hope we don't let our need for another top 6 center cloud our vision here though. Personally I like the talent at the blue line and wing more than center where we're picking.

 

[Killerjas]

Imagine a 1st line with Eklund, Wright/Bedard and Raymond. Destruction.

Gimme Eklund at 6th overall.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Imagine a 1st line with Eklund, Wright/Bedard and Raymond. Destruction.

Gimme Eklund at 6th overall.

You can go ahead and imagine it. The Wings won't be bad enough to draft either Wright or Bedard during the next 2 years unless we lose Bernier and replace him with the ghost of 2020 Jim Howard and bring back Madison Bowey to play on the first pair.

 

[Frk It]

Interesting to see Sillinger so high on a couple newer lists. I was kind of curious why McTavish had been slowly climbing lists while Sillinger remained largely in that 10-20 range despite consistently good production in the USHL this year. Neither he nor McTavish really match the profile of player I like to see us bet on in the top 10

You don’t want a guy who has dominated every level he’s played at? I think that kind of guy matches what we need.

 

[Killerjas]

You can go ahead and imagine it. The Wings won't be bad enough to draft either Wright or Bedard during the next 2 years unless we lose Bernier and replace him with the ghost of 2020 Jim Howard and bring back Madison Bowey to play on the first pair.

Okay fine, but Eklund and Raymond (with Larkin?) is pretty damn good. A Lambert, Ostlund or Savoie also looks great. Keep an eye out for Ostlund next year.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

You don’t want a guy who has dominated every level he’s played at? I think that kind of guy matches what we need.

I'm not sure if you're referring to Sillinger or McTavish here. I'd love to have either in a vacuum, they're clearly good prospects. I just prefer other candidates at #6 is all.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Been keeping tabs on this Roman Schmidt kid. Big RHD, a real hound in the defensive zone. Not much there for offense but seems to have a pretty accurate wrister despite it. that. Seen him ranked somewhere been a late first, to mid third. Could be a good pick.

 

[HisNoodliness]

About time for us to post our draft lists

1. Power
---------
2. Edvinsson
3.Hughes
4. Beniers
-------------
5. Eklund
6. Clarke
7. Johnson
8. Guenther
----------------
9. Lucius
10. Svechkov
11. Wallstedt
12. Lysell
13. Sillinger
14. L'Heureux
15. Lambos
16. Coronato
17. Mctavish
----------------
18. Rosen
19. Raty
20. Cossa
21. Chayka
22. Bourgault
23. Bolduc
24. Pinelli
25. Samoskevich
26. Stankoven
---------------------
27. Robertsson
28. Dean
29. Svozil
30. Olsson
31. Mailloux

I couldn't watch all these kids as much as I'd like so there's still a lot of movement from 18-31. A new shift-by-shift making a good or bad impression can still change my opinion a good deal for those players.

I feel pretty good about my top 17. Maybe as I watch more video and read more leading up to the draft some guys will move a spot or two (I've recently bumped Edvinsson above Hughes and Svechkov above Wallstedt after watching some old tape again) but I don't think there'll be any dramatic changes to the top 17.

Because of Seider and Raymond I definitely scouted the SHL more than any other league this year so there's possibly some bias for those players as I feel like I know them a little better. I also tried to catch some Michigan games and any tournaments like the WJC or u18s. Beyond that it's just shift-by-shifts, highlights, stats and scouting reports forming my opinions so take them with however many grains of salt you think appropriate. Oh and I find scouting goalies really tough so I'm mostly just deferring to industry opinion on Wallstedt and Cossa.

 

[Frk It]

I'm not sure if you're referring to Sillinger or McTavish here. I'd love to have either in a vacuum, they're clearly good prospects. I just prefer other candidates at #6 is all.

Sillinger. He’s dominated every level since he was 15. Over a ppg in the WHL in his -1 season. 1.5 PPG this season in the USHL

I think he is as skilled as any of these other forwards in the top 10.

I think his skating is a fair knock, but I heard similar things on Suzuki and Robertson, and we just watched them ball out this year.

 

[BeersHockey]

You can go ahead and imagine it. The Wings won't be bad enough to draft either Wright or Bedard during the next 2 years unless we lose Bernier and replace him with the ghost of 2020 Jim Howard and bring back Madison Bowey to play on the first pair.

I think we could definitely be in the running for Wright, especially if we have some injuries. Org depth at key positions (LD, mostly) is our biggest weakness and if our A team gets hurt, our plugs aren't ready to keep us middle of the pack. Unless some guys play well above next year expectations. I think after next year we could see Stevie dealing for actual roster players who can help win now.

 

[BeersHockey]

Sillinger. He’s dominated every level since he was 15. Over a ppg in the WHL in his -1 season. 1.5 PPG this season in the USHL

I think he is as skilled as any of these other forwards in the top 10.

I think his skating is a fair knock, but I heard similar things on Suzuki and Robertson, and we just watched them ball out this year.

And Point.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Sillinger. He’s dominated every level since he was 15. Over a ppg in the WHL in his -1 season. 1.5 PPG this season in the USHL

I think he is as skilled as any of these other forwards in the top 10.

I think his skating is a fair knock, but I heard similar things on Suzuki and Robertson, and we just watched them ball out this year.

Yeah agreed, I like Sillinger quite a lot. #6 is probably a bit too rich for my taste personally, but as mentioned I certainly see the appeal.

 

[MBH]

So HP was the absolute authority when they ranked Sanderson high last year.... but them ranking Eklund highly carries no weight.

Funny how that goes...

What's funny is how you stretch and contort to reject points.
I had Sanderson ranked higher before HP - but I was glad to see it at HP.
Red Line and McKeen's also ranked Sanderson higher.

Nothing in HP's write-up successfully challenges my notion that a light-weight, 5'10 winger with slightly average skating is going to thrive at some "high above replacement level" way.

Not to me, anyway.

 

[Frk It]

What's funny is how you stretch and contort to reject points.
I had Sanderson ranked higher before HP - but I was glad to see it at HP.
Red Line and McKeen's also ranked Sanderson higher.

Nothing in HP's write-up successfully challenges my notion that a light-weight, 5'10 winger with slightly average skating is going to thrive at some "high above replacement level" way.

Not to me, anyway.

Just be weary looking for things to validate centers/defenseman and rejecting things that validate wingers.

That would be the definition of confirmation bias.

FWIW, I would also like to walk out of this draft with a LD or C ideally. But you can't be locked into that mindset. If Power, Edvinsson, Hughes go before our pick I am not taking a LD. If Beniers goes before our pick, I am not entirely sure there is a C worth taking that will actually stick at C.

A draft only has to offer what it has.

 

[MBH]

I think you're a bit off in the Beniers/Larkin comparison. He's probably more Ryan OReilly or Sean Coutourier than Larkin.

And for what it's worth McTavish was beating up on adults in Switzerland as well. Not just kids from Belarus.

That's fine.
I always compared Larkin to Kelser/O'Reilly when he was younger.
I think Beniers is probably better, defensively, than Larkin. Dylan works hard, but I'm not sure the defensive IQ is top notch - though it might become top notch one day... on a team with better coaching and better defensemen.

Everything about McTavish screams winger to me.
Kind of feels like a smaller David Backes.

I can see some appeal of a team with guys like that and Seider and Larkin and Bertuzzi, etc, and maybe Rasmussen fits that well, too, if he can develop some snarl.

You get to the playoffs and these smaller players sometimes end up in the press box in favor of bigger forwards.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

That's fine.
I always compared Larkin to Kelser/O'Reilly when he was younger.
I think Beniers is probably better, defensively, than Larkin. Dylan works hard, but I'm not sure the defensive IQ is top notch - though it might become top notch one day... on a team with better coaching and better defensemen.

Everything about McTavish screams winger to me.
Kind of feels like a smaller David Backes.

I can see some appeal of a team with guys like that and Seider and Larkin and Bertuzzi, etc, and maybe Rasmussen fits that well, too, if he can develop some snarl.

You get to the playoffs and these smaller players sometimes end up in the press box in favor of bigger forwards.

I take David Backes all day every day at #6. Some people forget what a beast he was in St. Louis because of his less than stellar tenure as a slow, overpriced veteran in Boston.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

But couldn't that lead to a guy who is great at taking the puck away from forwards... and then promptly gives it right back?

Think of it as the circle of life...

 

[Martinez]

1. Beniers
2. Power
3. Clarke
4. Edvinsson
5. Hughes
6. Eklund
7. Guenther
8. Johnson
9. Lambos
10. Samoskevich
11. Wallstedt
12. Lysell
13. McTavish
14. Olausson
15. Chibrikov
16. Svechkov
17. Morrow
18. Pinelli
19. Sillinger
20. Raty
21. Svozil
22. Lucius
23. Rosen
24. Kidney
25. Coronato
26. L’Heureux
27. Cossa
28. Kirsanov
29. Ceulemans
30. Poltapov
31. Gaudreau
32. Peart
33. Tuomaala
34. Robertsson
35. Dean
36. Pastujov
37. Bourgault
38. Bar
39. Chayka
40. Olsson
41. Roulette
42. Stillman
43. Broz
44. Stankoven
45. Martino
46. Othmann
47. Kisakov
48. Salminen
49. Buium
50. Korczak
51. Bolduc
52. Zellweger
53. Hreschuk
54. Mailloux
55. Johnston
56. Behrens
57. Heimosalmi
58. Kostenko
59. Ufko
60. Grushnikov

 

[MBH]

Just be weary looking for things to validate centers/defenseman and rejecting things that validate wingers.

That would be the definition of confirmation bias.

Right.
We all have notions we've built, right or wrong, from years of watching hockey.

One of my notions is that 5'10 and 5'9 wingers have to incredibly special to become key players in the NHL.
And if they don't have great skating, it's even more challenging.

For sub-5;11 foot wingers, you have that top tier:

Patrick Kane.
Nikita Kucherov.
Brad Marchand

Truly elite players. Definitely worth a top 10 pick or top 5 or even higher pick.

Then you have your next level.
Debrincat. Gaudreau. Kaprizov. Marchessault. Gourde. Arvidsson. Gallagher. Fiala.
Guys who have value. Guys who should have been drafted higher than they went.

But what are they really worth?

How hard are they to replace?

Because f***ing top 4 defenseman can be a nightmare to replace. A 1C or 2C can be a nightmare to replace.

So unless I'm seeing things in videos and scouting reports that make me feel like Eklund have a good chance to be at the Kane or Marchand or Kucherov level, I'm not buying in the top 6.



As for Guentzel or Clarke, they don't seem like they're next-level guys compared to the guys I'm looking at.
So why wouldn't I draft players at the same level, at positions of need?

If Hughes or Edvinsson are there, I'm more than comfortable with either guy.

I understand Kent Johnson is a stretch in some ways. But I also think he's got a lot of development left in his game.
He's going to sand off some of the cutesy stuff without killing his creativity.
He played at 6'1, 165. He could add 20 pounds of muscle and still be 15-20 pounds lighter than McTavish and Sillinger are on draft day.
Adding 20 pounds will make him a more powerful skater and help his shot.

I'm trying to remember we're looking at these guys as projects. The 6'0, 205 pound players are already working out like NHLers and playing in men's bodies.

If I can walk away with Edvinsson at 6, maybe one of the Cs or Gs I like slip to me at 22.

We didn't take our LD last year.
I remember lots of people saying, Next Year is the year to draft LD.
Let's f***ing do it.

You can't keep ignoring C and LD and G and wondering why you've only developed 2 goalies in 25 years, or why you haven't developed a good LD since Kronwall (99 draft).

In recent years, we've drafted Svechnikov, Zadina, Mantha and Raymond with our #1 pick.
Even Rasmussen looks more like a W than a C. And I have a hard time, then or now, projecting Rasmussen as an impact C.

All things equal - put players in tiers and fix your roster.

 

[MBH]

It's not ranking busting. It's looking at the disparity in talent.

Drysdale vs. Sanderson was very close in terms of talent and I think will be for a long time in the NHL. Wallstedt vs. Cossa in a side-by-side comparison looks like there is a much more significant talent gap.

And HP ranks Cossa ahead, significantly.

HP tends to do a good job explaining why certain prospects might be closer to their ceiling and why other prospects may have room for growth.
They've done that with Cossa and Wallstedt.
Not saying I agree or disagree with it.