2021 Expansion Draft Discussion

[Beauterham]

Its to protect Kerfoot. Seattle is either taking McCann or Kerfoot. Whichever guy doesn't get picked fills the role Kerfoot had last year, 3rd line center that can kill penalties.

I was under the belief that the Leafs were actively trying to get rid of Kerfoot and his contract?

I don't think it was Kerfoot in the video, I think it was an employee at Pike Market + Kevin Weekes

It is? Ah, then it would make a lot more sense to practice with random names... I'm not 100% up to date how every Leaf player looks like on crappy phonequality video.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I'm not sure I take Voracek and a 1st for Tarasenko (at 50% retained) if I'm Seattle. I think that they could get more out of eating that much cap space, but maybe they are higher on Voracek than I am. Let's say they retain $2.75M of Tarasenko's $7.5M cap hit in that trade. That means that they are eating up $11M of their cap space for the next 2 years AND using 1 of their 3 salary retention slots in order to acquire Voracek and the 13 overall in a draft that is viewed somewhere in between "weak" and "total crapshoot due to COVID severely limiting scouting opportunities." That seems like a poor way to allocate $11M of cap space even before you consider that this deal also eats up their expansion draft selection from us.

Again, I might just have too low of an opinion on Voracek, but I just don't see him as being worth anything close to his $8.25M at this point. He turns 32 in a month and I don't think the 66 point pace player he has been for the last 3 years is going to continue when he isn't playing the large majority of his minutes with Giroux and Couts. I think he can be a 65 point guy with a legit top 20 center, but is Seattle going to get one of those? If not, who is he on their top line? A 55 point guy? If you're spending $11M on that 55 point guy (plus the 1st rounder), what would you say you're overpaying by? $5M? So is "overpaying" by $5M in back to back seasons really worth a single 1st round pick in a weird draft? In a flat cap league, I think you can get yourself more assets for eating $10M of total bad money.

If I'm Seattle, I think I'd rather just keep Tarasenko at $7.5M per, play him like a star player and hope that he returns to form. 2 year risk instead of 3, it costs me $7.5M against the cap instead of $11M for those 2 years and if he returns to being a 30 goal guy I can get a better return either at the trade deadline or next summer (or just keep him because he has become a franchise player).

I’m the impression there is a bidding process for Tarasenko with retained salary. If the rumored Voracek deal isn’t sweet enough, maybe someone else will offer them more. But it’s looking increasingly likely that that claim Vlad if there is any truth to these rumors.

 

[Majorityof1]

I was under the belief that the Leafs were actively trying to get rid of Kerfoot and his contract?

I don't follow every leaf rumour, so I am not sure. They may prefer Seattle take Kerfoot. They may have even have paid them to do so. But his is a role they shouldn't lose. McCann fits that role well. They are both defensively responsible guys who can chip in a good bit off offense and kill penalties. Both can play either C or W. Kerfoot is $500k more this year. McCann is set to renegotiate as an RFA with arbitration next year. So salaries could be a wash depending on when you need the cap space more. They seem reasonably close as players and contracts so as to not matter too much which one they lose. At least from my outsider's perspective.

 

[Ranksu]

We act like Dunn is top 4D but Berube and Army have never trusted him as one.

Same what happened to Edmundson in here played only 3rd paid and in Habs he is playing top4.

 

[Majorityof1]

Same what happened to Edmundson in here played only 3rd paid and in Habs he is playing top4.

Edmundson was often paired with Pietrangelo or Parayko. He got 19:23 and 20:44 minutes per game his last 2 years here. He was unequivocally used as a top 4 D those years. It wasn't until the playoffs of his last year where a few errors caused his TOI and usage to drop. That made him expendable. You know I am critical of the Blues as well, but let's be factual with our critiques.

 

[Blueswin]

It would be interesting if the Kraken signed Schwartz as a free agent & then we would still have Tank & possibly Dunn to trade.

 

[Thallis]

It would be interesting if the Kraken signed Schwartz as a free agent & then we would still have Tank & possibly Dunn to trade.

If they signed him, it would be during normal free agency.

 

[Eldon Reid]

If they signed him, it would be during normal free agency.

No Kraken have the ability to talk to UFA right now and sign them (They won't be announce til draft night I assume).

They basically have already signed Driedger UFA goalie from Florida from people on Twitter.

 

[Frenzy31]

It would be funny, if all the talk about Tarasenko and then the trade is actually a negotiating tactic with Schwartz to talk his price down...... And they sign Schwartz who then becomes their pick from St. Louis.

 

[Thallis]

No Kraken have the ability to talk to UFA right now and sign them (They won't be announce til draft night I assume).

They basically have already signed Driedger UFA goalie from Florida from people on Twitter.

They can talk to him, they can also sign him, but they won't because that would have to be their selection. If they wanted Schwartz, they would sign him during free agency.

 

[Brockon]

Well gents, I look forward to reading this thread on Saturday night... I'm heading out of cell service for 3 days and I fully expect HFB to crash repeatedly tommorow during & after the expansion draft.

 

[Reality Czech]

They can talk to him, they can also sign him, but they won't because that would have to be their selection. If they wanted Schwartz, they would sign him during free agency.

Could be, but not necessarily true. Especially if he is expecting a max term contract from them. I had that thought when I noticed that Schwartz is looking at PNW teams in free agency, including Seattle.

 

[Stealth JD]

So who is lost? Tarasenko, Dunn or "other"?

I think the return Seattle gets for Tarasenko is greater than any benefit they get from choosing Dunn. #91 gets picked.

 

[Xanadude]

So who is lost? Tarasenko, Dunn or "other"?

I think the return Seattle gets for Tarasenko is greater than any benefit they get from choosing Dunn. #91 get picked.

I think it's going to be Tarasenko for sure. It just makes too much sense for Seattle to either use him as a star to generate hype or as a big trade chip with salary retained to build for their immediate future.

Or both. they draft him, hope he plays like a star and then trade him for a great haul at the deadline this year or next.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Sounds like Seattle is closing in on deals for Larsson and Oleksiak. Oleksiak is someone that a portion of us wanted. Vegas has definitely allowed Seattle to have a better shot at free agents. Even if they don't start as well as they did, which they still might, they will undoubtedly start better than previous expansions and will probably be closer to winning than many other franchises out there.

This is why I don't see them taking and holding a ton of bloated bad contracts. They will be an attractive destination for many, so it's not like the Nashville/Columbus/Minnesota/Atlanta days when they would struggle to attract talent in the beginning. Seattle will have no problem attracting decent to good players.

 

[MissouriMook]

So who is lost? Tarasenko, Dunn or "other"?

I think the return Seattle gets for Tarasenko is greater than any benefit they get from choosing Dunn. #91 gets picked.

It was just some rando on Twitter so it could have been faked, but I saw a screenshot of a Vegas book that had Tarasenko at -250 and spots 2, 3, and 4 on the rankings of who gets selected from the Blues were Clifford (?!?), Scandella and Mikkola. Meaning Dunn was no higher than 5th on the list.

 

[Majorityof1]

Sounds like Seattle is closing in on deals for Larsson and Oleksiak. Oleksiak is someone that a portion of us wanted. Vegas has definitely allowed Seattle to have a better shot at free agents. Even if they don't start as well as they did, which they still might, they will undoubtedly start better than previous expansions and will probably be closer to winning than many other franchises out there.

This is why I don't see them taking and holding a ton of bloated bad contracts. They will be an attractive destination for many, so it's not like the Nashville/Columbus/Minnesota/Atlanta days when they would struggle to attract talent in the beginning. Seattle will have no problem attracting decent to good players.

Makes sense. If Seattle can attract current free agents at Market rate, why take on contracts that have already turned out bad. Market rate is generally too much for a player, and should only be reserved for the top end plahyer. But they have a cap floor to hit. So they can sign market rate guys, that accelerate their track to be competitive. On the other hand, they don't get futures with that strategy. They can increase their number of draft picks by taking on bad contracts. They have an entire cupboard of prospects they need to fill. The cheap guys they pick now, won't all stay cheap. So it's a balancing act.

 

[bleedblue1223]

It was just some rando on Twitter so it could have been faked, but I saw a screenshot of a Vegas book that had Tarasenko at -250 and spots 2, 3, and 4 on the rankings of who gets selected from the Blues were Clifford (?!?), Scandella and Mikkola. Meaning Dunn was no higher than 5th on the list.

There will be a handful of picks that are throwaway picks, so it's not completely uncalled for that someone like Clifford or Mikkola would be picked. That's why it's hard to come up with a quality prediction. Even if they go best player available route, there will still be a few teams that they can't do that on.

 

[Blues0307]

Seattle takes Tarasenko IMO. Makes too much sense. They'll have the ability to flip him or hold onto him and hope he becomes a fan favorite like he is here.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Makes sense. If Seattle can attract current free agents at Market rate, why take on contracts that have already turned out bad. Market rate is generally too much for a player, and should only be reserved for the top end plahyer. But they have a cap floor to hit. So they can sign market rate guys, that accelerate their track to be competitive. On the other hand, they don't get futures with that strategy. They can increase their number of draft picks by taking on bad contracts. They have an entire cupboard of prospects they need to fill. The cheap guys they pick now, won't all stay cheap. So it's a balancing act.

Yeah, I think they'll do a bit of both, but they are going to be very selective on who they take. I think they'll also gain picks by not selecting someone, like Calgary has to pay Seattle to not select Giordano.

 

[MissouriMook]

Sounds like Seattle is closing in on deals for Larsson and Oleksiak. Oleksiak is someone that a portion of us wanted. Vegas has definitely allowed Seattle to have a better shot at free agents. Even if they don't start as well as they did, which they still might, they will undoubtedly start better than previous expansions and will probably be closer to winning than many other franchises out there.

This is why I don't see them taking and holding a ton of bloated bad contracts. They will be an attractive destination for many, so it's not like the Nashville/Columbus/Minnesota/Atlanta days when they would struggle to attract talent in the beginning. Seattle will have no problem attracting decent to good players.

Seems to make Dunn less likely on two counts - they already have two D and (if the stories around Driedger are true) will have already selected 3 of the 10 players they are allowed to select that are not under contract.

 

[Thallis]

So who is lost? Tarasenko, Dunn or "other"?

I think the return Seattle gets for Tarasenko is greater than any benefit they get from choosing Dunn. #91 gets picked.

There's way too much smoke around Tarasenko to be anyone but him.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Seems to make Dunn less likely on two counts - they already have two D and (if the stories around Driedger are true) will have already selected 3 of the 10 players they are allowed to select that are not under contract.

Yeah, selecting and flipping Tarasenko seems most likely, and that gives us the ability to move or keep Dunn at the draft. And with Seattle getting Larsson and Oleksiak, while they aren't similar to Dunn, it throws the market a curveball from where people were anticipating it being.

 

[The Note]

At this point if the Kraken take Tarasenko, I would rather they just hang on to Dunn.

 

[Stealth JD]

It was just some rando on Twitter so it could have been faked, but I saw a screenshot of a Vegas book that had Tarasenko at -250 and spots 2, 3, and 4 on the rankings of who gets selected from the Blues were Clifford (?!?), Scandella and Mikkola. Meaning Dunn was no higher than 5th on the list.

Does that mean Army's already arranged for Dunn to not be selected? Maybe we'll find out there's more to it than Dunn not being desireable.

There will be a handful of picks that are throwaway picks, so it's not completely uncalled for that someone like Clifford or Mikkola would be picked. That's why it's hard to come up with a quality prediction. Even if they go best player available route, there will still be a few teams that they can't do that on.

They'll have a need to populate their minor-league system too. Maybe Kaspick becomes a selection for that sole purpose. (though it would be insane/borderline-criminally-negligible to pass on Tarasenko in that situation)

Though, to expand on that point, if Tarasenko were to have been traded prior to the Expansion draft (retention or not), there's a greater than 0% chance that the player being taken by the Kraken wouldn't have been Vince Dunn. They very may well have taken a throw-away player if they didn't have room for Dunn in their best version of themselves. Cannot believe Army couldn't even get a pair of picks or a prospect from a team with a loaded farm system for his banged-up sniper.