2021 Blues Regular Season multi-purpose thread
- Thread starter Stupendous Yappi
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Linkens Mastery
Conductor of the TankTown Express
bleedblue1223
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- Jan 21, 2011
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Thallis
No half measures
bleedblue1223
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When Buch was with Thomas and Tarasenko, the 3 looked really dangerous as well. Really have to get ROR/Perron going again. The other 4 in the top 6 will probably be fine regardless based on their current play.
Bluesnatic27
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- Aug 5, 2011
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Because putting Perron next to anyone not named O'Reilly hasn't been that successful. I like Perron and all, but he really does need O'Reilly to play even close to his best.
BlueMed
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I love how Kyrou is a fixture on the first line and we don't bat an eye.
He's come so far and it's a testament to his progression.
I do believe at his best, he's in the tier below the McDavids and Mackinnons of the world.
Kyrou has the potential to replace what Tarasenko was to us from 2013-2019.
BlueMed
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I hope we hang onto both, honestly.
It's pretty wild to think about how we have both of them right now. Despite lack of media recognition, our forward group is very good despite not having generational talent. If Perunovich can step in and be that LHD that we've been looking for, then that would be great. Skating, positioning, and vision are the most important assets that a defenseman can have, and he has those things despite lacking the same reach as other players.
Brian39
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Yup. Yup Yup Yup.
Tinker with the forward lines all you want. Kyrou is working with everyone so far, Thomas is looking great with talent on his wing and the bottom 6 is full of above-replacement players and can be mixed and matched. Maybe not my favorite combination at the forward group, but I have no complaints. Honestly, do whatever you want with the forwards right now so long as ROR/Perron stay together and Thomas/Tarasenko stay together.
That D group is exactly what I want to see. Give me this kind of breakdown from these pairs:
Krug-Parayko: 13 minutes of all-situations usage
Perunovich-Faulk: 13 minutes of all-situations usage
Scandella-Bortz: 12 minutes of defensive-leaning usage
That's 38 minutes of your game. You generally have about 45-50 minutes of even strength time in a game, so you've got 7-12 more minutes to fill that are a bit more situational (chasing/holding a lead, commercial break timing, catching a team on an icing, etc). So how do we fill the remaining 7-12 minutes at even strength? Give me Scandella-Parayko for 4-7 minutes of high leverage defensive usage against the opposition's top line and 3-5 minutes of Krug-Faulk. All told, that leads to even strength ice time totals of:
17-20 minutes for Parayko
16-18 minutes for Faulk and Krug
16-19 minutes for Scandella
13 minutes for Perunovich
12 minutes for Bortz
Krug is on PP1, Perunovich on PP2 and you lean hard on Parayko, Scandella, Bortz and Faulk for the PK. Look for opportunities to slide Faulk onto a couple extra shifts when you can (either by pumping Perunovich's role if he is excelling or getting him a couple shifts with Scandella in non-shutdown situations. There is enough wiggle room in those ice times bump/dock guys a couple minutes based on play or opponent.
I'm not sold that this group can do it against top 5-10 teams in a 7 game series, but if they can it is that type of deployment that will do it. I really, really hope Berube sticks with these pairings for better or worse over the next couple weeks. Scandella-Parayko can be a situational go-to shut down pair, but the rest of the blue line can't defend well enough to have them out together for 15+ minutes a night.
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PocketNines
Cutter's Way
Explaining to yourself that reach isn’t all that important for defenseman is pure self deception. It’s worthy of being one of Leonard’s tattoos in Memento
BlueMed
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I never said reach isn't all that important. I said there are more important things including skating, positioning, and vision. Just read it again.
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PocketNines
Cutter's Way
I didn’t quote your post because it’s a general comment. You aren’t the only one who looks at the defense core and sees it working with three small defensemen in the top two pairs, whatever the rationalization for why reach isn’t as important. I’m saying no no no, reach is every bit as important.
Brian39
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Fox: 5'11"
Josi: 6'1"
Giordano: 6'1"
Hedman: 6'6"
Burns: 6'5"
Doughty: 6'1"
Karlsson: 6'0"
Keith: 6'1"
Subban: 6'0"
Lidstrom: 6'1"
Those are the last 10 Norris winners (and they have combined for the last 12 Trophies. Going back another year, you get another giant with Chara winning it. But then the next 7 years are all won by guys who are 6'1" (Lidstrom and Niedermayer). So in a 20 year sample, you had 3 guys with monster reach win the Norris. The rest of the winners (9 guys and 17 wins) were guys who were below-to-slightly-below average height. I think it would be incredibly disingenuous to argue that Faulk is small, but Josi, Gio, Doughty, Karlsson, Keith, Subban, Lidstrom or Niedermayer weren't. Especially because average height among NHL D man has skewed down about an inch from where it was a decade ago.
Gap control, positioning and (increasingly) skating ability are all tools used to erase a reach deficiency. Reach is a great asset for a D man. It is not determinative of whether a D man can be effective.
Makar is very effective at 5'11", McAvoy is very effective at 6'0", Letang is very effective at 6'0", Girard is very effective at 5'10", Spurgeon is very effective at 5'9", Gryzelcyk is very effective at 5'9", etc. The Bruins were a top defensive team last year (both expected and raw shots/goals/chances) and two of their top 4 D men are under 6 feet tall. Their #1 D is exactly 6 feet tall. Colorado was also excellent defensively by every metric last year. Two of their top 3 D men are under 6 feet tall and the other is 6'1". Parayko is bigger than each of those team's big boys and a better skater to boot. Neither of those teams had as big a 3rd pair as we do either.
All things being equal, give me the guy with a longer reach every single time. But a long reach is not a barrier to entry for being a damn good NHL D man. And having 2 small guys (and 3+ average/below average height guys) is not prohibitive to having a team that is very good defensively. Perunovich and Krug have plenty of issues in their own zone when the other team has the puck. But that is one part of defending and they both have strengths once they get they puck that help offset those deficiencies. I have my doubts that this group as constructed will be good enough defensively to contend, but acting like the lack of reach is conclusory is absurd. Every team in the league has at least 4 D men in their starting 6 group who have some type of major shortcoming compared to the smooth skating giant who also has great vision and puck skills. Most have 5. Every team in the league works to build their best possible blue line by pairing guys together who offset/hide the deficiencies of their partner.
Parayko offsets Krug's size very well and they have been excellent together since Krug got here. It's only a 149 minute sample, but they have an xGF% of 60, scoring chance percentage of 59, high danger chance percentage of 62, and an actual GF% of 69. Only 55% offensive zone start, so they skew toward offensive usage, but it isn't like they are getting insane offensive usage. That's about what I'd expect if we have Scandella-Bortz soaking up heavy defensive usage.
We'll see how Perunovich and Faulk look together. They might struggle, but Faulk's fly around style could balance well with Perunovich (Faulk separates man from puck while Perunovich retrieves and makes a play with the puck while Faulk recovers from pulling out of position). It worked fairly well with Krug-Faulk so long as they aren't being asked to playe 24 minutes a night against top comeptition. We'll see, but I doubt that lack of reach is their downfall if they stink.
This group isn't going to be a defensive marvel. But if Perunovich is Hughes/Makar light (very light) and is capable of being a top end zone exit player, then the blue line offense/transition game can offset the middling defensive play. It is a big ask out of Perunovich and I'm not at all saying that it is the most likely outcome. But given what we've seen out of Walman and Perunovich's AHL start, it is the most likely path to success without an external acquisition. We owe it to Perunovich to give him a legit NHL look and we owe it to the roster to see if they can be good enough without trading forwards for D help.
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LGB
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- Feb 4, 2019
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Arguably the two best defenseman in the world right now, Fox and Makar, are 5'11.
PocketNines
Cutter's Way
I should probably clarify that I’m not talking about what wins Norris voting. I’m talking about building a Cup winner. Throwing results of an offensive regular season trophy is very bad argumentation when we are talking about defending in the playoffs. Even in that list the only Cup winners are 6’1”+
I realize some people consider the best defensemen in the world the one who wins the regular season offense trophy.
I realize some people consider the best defensemen in the world the one who wins the regular season offense trophy.
Majorityof1
Registered User
Krug has none of those things. The jury is still out on 2 of those for Perunovich. Why are we talking about height in the abstract when we actually have data to discuss how our D play? The last 4 Hart trophy winners were between 6'0 and 6'2, so that means should call up Laferriere and switch Lindgren to forward? We have two potential league MVPs in the minors. They are both 6'1, so they must be great.
Also, none of those guys listed are 5'9. Our D are 2 inches shorter than the shortest D on there. The difference between 5'9 and 6'1 is the same as between 6'1 and one of your giants. Who was the last 5'9 guy to finish in the top 10? I had to go back a decade to find 5'10 Brian Cambell finishing 7th. I don't feel like going even further looking for someone even shorter.
Or more appropriately to Krug, who was the last guy who is 5'9 and terrible at defense to finish high in Norris voting? Krug isn't just 5'9, he's 5''9 and doesn't have any skills that make up for it defensively. I honestly don't care that Krug has no reach. I care that he has no anything that could be construed as a defensive skill. There are multiple ways to get any job done, but you have to excel at something to get it done in the NHL. Krug doesn't.
Perunovich has to show whether he does or not over multiple games against the best competition. He hasn't had that opportunity yet but he hasn't exactly been dominant on the defensive side of the puck against lesser competition. That doesn't give me hope that he will suddenly blossom from an offensive defenseman in college to a 2-way all situation D in the NHL.
Brian39
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In 2010 the Hawks won the Cup with Keith (6'1") and Campbell (5'10") playing top 4 minutes. Their biggest D man was the size of our current roster's 3rd tallest D man.
In 2011 the Bruins won the Cup with Ference (5'11") and Seidenberg (6'0") playing top 4 minutes.
In 2012, the Kings won the Cup with Doughty (6'1") and Voynov (6'0") playing top 4 minutes. Their biggest D man was the size of our current roster's 3rd tallest D man.
In 2013 The Hawks won the Cup with Keith (6'1") and Oduya (6'0") playing top 4 minutes. Their biggest D man was the size of our 3rd tallest D man and their bottom pairing was 6'0" and 6'1".
In 2014, the Kings won the Cup with Doughty (6'1") and Voynov (6'0") playing top 4 minutes. Their biggest D man was the size of our 3rd tallest D man.
In 2015 The Hawks won the Cup with Keith (6'1") and Oduya (6'0") playing top 4 minutes. Their biggest D man was the size of our 3rd tallest D man and the 3 guys they rotated in the bottom pair were 5'10", 5'11" and 6'1".
In 2016 the Pens won the Cup with Letang (6'0"), Lovejoy (6'1"), and Daley (5'11") in their top 4. Their biggest guy was 6'4" (our 2nd tallest player) and no one else was above 6'2"
In 2017 the Pens sized up a bit on their blue line, with a top 4 all above 6 foot.
In 2018 the Caps won with Orlov (5'11"), Niskanen (6'1") and Kempny (6'1") rounding out the top 4 after Carlson (6'3"). Their biggest guy was the size of our current roster's 3rd biggest guy.
Our group in 2019 was the biggest group to win it by a country mile. Dunn was our smallest D man at 6'0" and everyone else was 6'2" or taller (with 4 of our 7 regulars being 6'4" or taller).
Tampa continued the trend of big blueliners with a core above 6 feet tall (although not nearly as big as ours).
Here is the list of 6'4" D men who played 200+ minutes on a Cup run in the last dozen years: Hedman, Parayko, Bouwmeester, Edmundson, Bortuzzo, Dumoulin, Chara, and McQuaid. Our team and the 2011 Bruins team are the only group that had more than 1. We currently have 2 such guys with a 3rd who is 6'3". The large half of our blue line has better reaches than 11 of the last 12 Cup winners. You can't point at the small half and say "no one has had success with a small half like that" without acknowledging that no one else (besides our GM) has built a large half of the blue line as big as ours either. If your argument is about reach, you can't ignore that half the blue line has much better reach than the large majority of Cup winners
Our current blue line has an average height of 73.33 inches
The average height of Washington's blue line in 2018 was 73.16 inches
The average height of the Pens blue line in 2016 was 72.83 inches
The average height of the 2015 Hawks blue line was 73 inches. 73.33 inches in 2013 and 73.16 in 2010.
The average height of the 2014 Kings blue line was 73.83 inches. That number was 73.5 in 2012.
The overall reach/length of our blue line is right in line with the majority of Cup winners over the last dozen years. If you are talking about the construction of the whole group, then we don't have a height/reach issue. If your talking about the size/effectiveness of individual players, there are plenty of examples of individuals being very effective under 6'0". Again, Krug and Perunovich have deficiencies in their games that create a high likelihood that we'll need to add a piece from outside the organization. Reach is not it.
Brian39
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To the bolded, I was directly responding to a post exclusively about reach being so important that it outweighed everything else.
I disagree that Krug doesn't have any of the skills I mentioned. He is a good (but not great) skater. His positioning and gap control in the neutral zone and around the blue line is generally good. His best defensive tool is forcing dump ins, beating guys to loose pucks and then skating or passing the puck out of trouble. He is well above average at that part of defense and it is frankly the reason he is playable as a D man in the NHL. His positioning and gap control are poor when he's defending a puck carrier 1 on 1 or defending while a team cycles down low against him. He is among the league's best at getting the puck safely out of the zone with control once we gain possession in our zone. I count that as a defensive skill.
Krug should never be in Norris contention, but the pairings rolled out today wouldn't be asking him to be that. Again, I think we still need to add to the blue line, but splitting up Scandella-Parayko to use Krug and Perunovich both as complimentary pieces to non-defense heavy pairings is the best usage of the group we have and can feasibly make a good enough group (if Perunovich is immediately a Dunn+ caliber guy defensively AND the blueline provides enough offense that we are a top 5 scoring team in the league).
PocketNines
Cutter's Way
I’m talking about the size of the top four. I look at Parayko, Faulk, Krug, Peronovich as too small not to be subsumed under playoff forecheck by quality teams. Despite all those provided examples I don’t see any where there are two guys 5’11” or under in the top four. Perhaps I looked past one.
Krug is also more than small, he is tiny. He has to waterski big guys who are all faster than him. Having two guys under 5’11” and Faulk at 6’ is rough.
PocketNines
Cutter's Way
To be clear, the bolded cannot be referring to my post. I clearly say that reach is every bit as important as the other skills which is a far, far cry from the bolded.
Brian39
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If this is the group that we take into the playoffs, I think it is incredibly unlikely that Perunovich sees more 5 on 5 ice time than Scandella on a nightly basis. It's pretty common for teams to largely roll 5 D in the playoffs with the 6th guy getting less than 10 a night. I'd expect Bortz to be that 6th guy at 5 on 5 (but playing the 3rd most PK minutes) while Scandella takes shifts with both Bortz and Parayko. So something like:
Krug-Parayko: 10 minutes
Perunovich-Faulk: 10 minutes
Scandella-Bortz: 7 minutes
Scandella-Parayko: 8 minutes
Krug-Faulk: 6 minutes
With the rest dictated by score effects. We need to get a long look at how Krug looks with Parayko and how Perunovich looks with Faulk. But once we are actually dealing with the playoff forecheck, I don't see any way that Scandella is playing less than 20 minutes a night except in games where we a are chasing and increase Perunovich's ice time to try and score.
For this D group to be successful, I think it will be like Sunny's ice time in the Cup run. He was consistently listed as the 4th line center but he was 6th among forwards in usage. We'ss see Scandella as the "bottom pair" D man who consistently is 3rd or 4th in minutes.
PocketNines
Cutter's Way
We agree that if this is what D roster they have going into the playoffs the usages will be divided by situation as is common and we agree that Scandella would actually get top four minutes when it’s all said and done. I personally don’t foresee that working out well.
It’s for this reason that adding another all-situations defender by the deadline would considerably change my outlook for the postseason results.
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