Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)
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Seems like he is having a great tournament. Also out a lot late in games and makes big plays. Hopefully he is a clutch type of guy... leafs need that bad. Even though he's a while away still he is a big big dude which may help him get there faster. Looks great in these clips though.
Chief Berube
Registered User
Wow. This might be a steal of a pickup. Does anyone know how far away he is from getting a shot with the big boys?
i would suspect 2 years. Really needs to work on his skating from all accounts.
He's going to play atleast 2 years of NCAA hockey in my opinion before he comes over. Now, if he lights the world on fire next season in the NCAA maybe he transitions quicker. I don't really see that as an avenue.. we can afford to let him bake in college.
By the way, for everyone who sh*ts on Dubas constantly. He trades away picks yes, however, he nails his picks and gives us a great chance to succeed. He is not part of the problem for this organization for failing to anticipate COVID-19 would create a flat cap world which screwed over the anticipated 90-100M cap.
He will have a hard time getting on the PP this year and scoring will be pretty spread out over three lines for the Gophers. He'll be at the U at least two years and based on what I've seen of his skating it should be three.
kb
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- Aug 28, 2009
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Half the people who are analyzing him as a bad skater probably can't even skate lol
Isaac Nootin
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What about his skating do you not like, specifically?
I haven't seen him at all, and don't pretend to be an expert, but seeing his recent clips, both USHL and at the WJC summer camp, the concerns seem to be overblown. Especially for an 18 year old 6'3" 205+ lb player. He gets around the ice just fine, IMO.
hamzarocks
Registered User
Majority of the fans on these boards haven't played any form of hockey? What's your point lol
Most fans don't play the sport they watch especially not at a high level.
Not talking about Knies skating just saying that assessing a fan based on if they've played a sport or can do something a player on the team is expected to do isn't a good method
His top speed and the number of strides it takes to get to it. He looks okay in those clips but the show is a totally different world. He reminds me of Scott Reedy when he came to the Gophers. I only watch college hockey (every Gopher game), and I've seen tons of hyped players come through the program but the ones that are making the NHL for the most part are the ones that can fly. Of course I want him to dominate for the Gophers and make the NHL, and to say a 2nd rounder could use three solid years in college before jumping straight to the NHL is not a big burn or something...
Isaac Nootin
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Not saying it was a burn, I just see alot of people say his skating needs major work, without getting into detail. I personally don't see it being a major flaw, and the college route is probably ideal for him to work on any issues.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
I really hope we found the Jeff Carter regen here. That's the player I'm reminded of at the same age. I have a suspicision that when all is said and done, Knies should have been a top 20 pick.
If he can spend the next 3 years focusing on his skating and he comes into the NHL at a lean 6'3, 220lbs, he could be a force.
If he can spend the next 3 years focusing on his skating and he comes into the NHL at a lean 6'3, 220lbs, he could be a force.
This may prove to be true, but it is far too early to come to this conclusion. How many of his picks have even played a game in the NHL? While some of the prospects look promising we won't know how well Dubas and co. have drafted for a while yet.
I disagree with part of your assertion about the cap but I don't want to derail this thread.
usernamezrhardtodo
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- Mar 26, 2014
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He seems ok to me too. I don't understand what people mean when they say his skating is bad. Do they mean his crossovers and east/west skating or straight-line speed? It seems if someone is slower but good at being nimble he is considered a bad skater because of the lack of acceleration.
If they mean slow...just say it..don't lump it in to the whole enchilada of general skating.
stickty111
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- Jan 23, 2017
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Sure but until they get to the NHL, all we can evaluate is on progression and most of his picks have.
I want Knies in the NHL I’m the next two years! Do not let him get to that 3rd year as we know how Dubas is in negotiations and I don’t want him walking as a NCAA Free Agent.. best case scenario is he tears it up next year and turns pro
SeaOfBlue
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- Aug 1, 2013
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When has Dubas let a good prospect go for nothing?
Really funny how overpaying Marner, a guy who was going to pull the same thing with any GM, makes him a terrible negotiator, yet he has yet to hand out a regrettable contract thus far. Half the GM's in the league have probably handed out more regrettable contracts in the past 3 days than Dubas has in the past 3 years.
I feel like some fans need to go back to the days of Burke, Nonis, and Lou to remind themselves of a true poor negotiator.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
It's by far the most hilarious thing people bash him for. Non-Leaf fans think he's horrible, but other than Marner being overpaid by about 2M (so many Leaf fans thought he deserved Matthews money
) he's been well above average with every contract besides Matthews, and that was fair AAV but the years should have been improved at that money.
Duffman955
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- Mar 4, 2010
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I don't know anything about him,
But he is 6'3 every day of the week
But he is 6'3 every day of the week
Guy Boucher
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- Oct 22, 2008
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It's by far the most hilarious thing people bash him for. Non-Leaf fans think he's horrible, but other than Marner being overpaid by about 2M (so many Leaf fans thought he deserved Matthews money
The Venn diagram of fans who thought Marner deserved the same money as Matthews but now hate Dubas for the cap situation is nearly a single circle.
SeaOfBlue
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It's by far the most hilarious thing people bash him for. Non-Leaf fans think he's horrible, but other than Marner being overpaid by about 2M (so many Leaf fans thought he deserved Matthews money
I think it was fair AAV for the term (in Matthews' case).
I think if you wanted Matthews at 8 years, you'd need to be in the high 12's or low 13's to even get him considering it, which puts him around a 16% percentage. There was an offer like that on the table for Matthews, but we went with the lower term to keep the cap manageable. He never was going to take this money on an 8 year deal, because he would probably be taking a larger discount than McDavid did on his 12.5 x 8 deal (and that was a fairly large discount as it was).
I think if we are looking at this long term, it actually works out better that way. If we compare a 5 year followed by an 8 year vs. an 8 year (at 13 mill let's say; which is 16.35% and I think that was the rumoured 8-year offer on the table) followed by a 8 year (which likely comes at a higher cap hit than the former 8 year deal since the cap will likely increase).
Year 1: 11.64 vs. 13 (save 1.36 mill)
Year 2: 11.64 vs. 13 (save 1.36 mill)
Year 3: 11.64 vs. 13 (save 1.36 mill)
Year 4: 11.64 vs. 13 (save 1.36 mill)
Year 5: 11.64 vs. 13 (save 1.36 mill)
--- Matthews signs 8 year deal @ 16.15% on a 95 mill cap in second scenario, which is what I imagined it would be had it not been for Covid.
Year 6: 15.34 vs. 13 (2.34 mill surplus)
Year 7: 15.34 vs. 13 (2.34 mill surplus)
Year 8: 15.34 vs 13 (2.34 mill surplus)
-- Matthews signs 8 year deal @ 16% on a 100 mill cap in second scenario.
Year 9: 15.34 vs. 16 (save 650k)
Year 10: 15.34 vs. 16 (save 650k)
Year 11: 15.34 vs. 16 (save 650k)
Year 12: 15.34 vs. 16 (save 650k)
Year 13: 15.34 vs. 16 (save 650k)
-- Matthews signs new contract at 34 in first scenario; likely not getting a raise on his 15.34 mill regardless of cap increases.
Now I am making assumptions about the cap rising, and I am using similar situations with other top players (i.e. Malkin, Crosby, Ovechkin, etc.) to emulate Matthews' situation, which may not reflect reality. However, this is a fair reflection of what reality could be, and in the 13 year period proceeding his ELC, there are 3 years where we are having a surplus by giving him a 5 year deal followed by an 8 year deal, but there are 10 where we are saving cap (albeit less than we would be losing in those 3 surplus years). No idea if Dubas is looking that far ahead, but he probably worked out a similar simulation and found that it was worth biting the bullet in those three middle years and saving more money now and later.
Either way, Marner's contract is the only one that should be considered less than fair in my books. Matthews' was fair, but probably not a steal (although it definitely is trending nicely).
Eternal Leaf
Registered User
I have no clue about Knies so I can't say much about his history.
But the kid has great size and an NHL-caliber shot. He has a very appealing skillset and I can see why Dubas likes him. I think the skating will also come around as it's not completely broken.
A pretty good get for 57th.
But the kid has great size and an NHL-caliber shot. He has a very appealing skillset and I can see why Dubas likes him. I think the skating will also come around as it's not completely broken.
A pretty good get for 57th.
