Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[stickty111]

Leafs fans have actually better estimated our younger players and prospects over the past half a dozen years than most detractors actually. Who was the last hyped prospect who overtly failed here?

Pretty much. A lot of our players who had some good hype usually work out. Our forward track record is solid. I don't like our defence development approach but Liljegren and Sandin are good starts. Turning a 2nd rounder Dermott into an NHL player is fine too. Leafs fans have done well with their evaluations on prospects. The detractors results have been pretty bad and you can look at Kadri and Liljegren as the biggest examples.
Plus anyone who says Robertson is a failure shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

[Mess]

I don't think there's any conclusions that can be definitively drawn based on one tournament or season, but more like a snap shot in time and generally what you feel a player will become.

I keep thinking of the old saying "counting your chickens before they hatch." Especially with mid rounders. Prospects like Garrett Sparks and Jeremy Bracco even managed to become fairly dominant AHL players before face planting as NHL capable players. So you never really know until they make it.

All prospects are suspects until they prove they aren't, but you definitely like to see positive progress as regression is early warning signs at times that development is not heading in the right direction.

Most Leaf fans would consider Knies as Leafs best and most promising prospect at this time, because he has the size and strength to be a difference maker and not just a depth player.

I love the WJC tournament and was really hoping to see Knies make a big impact on the tourney because this is a step up from the level of NCAA competition and where a teams best age appropriate prospects get to shine against their peers.

 

[Stephen]

All prospects are suspects until they prove they aren't, but you definitely like to see positive progress as regression is early warning signs at times that development is not heading in the right direction.

Most Leaf fans would consider Knies as Leafs best and most promising prospect at this time, because he has the size and strength to be a difference maker and not just a depth player.

I love the WJC tournament and was really hoping to see Knies make a big impact on the tourney because this is a step up from the level of NCAA competition and where a teams best age appropriate prospects get to shine against their peers.

For me, I'm neither excited about Hirvonen's offensive numbers nor Knies lack there of. Just doesn't feel like a real WJC. Of course I'd prefer massive numbers, but meh.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I think we were likely expecting Knies to be a top 25 scorer in this tournament. Perhaps that was too high, and unfair but the expectations for Leafs top prospect were high.

There were 9 X USA forwards that finished with more or equal points to Knies.

Maybe you were, but in turned out not to be the case. Team USA disappointed this tournament. Even Knies wasn't good in the quarter final. He had a good tournement overall though. I was expecting more scoring, but he was good nonetheless.

 

[BertCorbeau]

For me, I'm neither excited about Hirvonen's offensive numbers nor Knies lack there of. Just doesn't feel like a real WJC. Of course I'd prefer massive numbers, but meh.

It's a weird time .. players and teams are in mid-season form like they typically would be.

I mean I already wouldn't put much stock into it when it was in its normal time, but even now it's probably less indicative.

It's a nice to have on the resume but isn't anything conclusive.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It's a weird time .. players and teams are in mid-season form like they typically would be.

I mean I already wouldn't put much stock into it when it was in its normal time, but even now it's probably less indicative.

It's a nice to have on the resume but isn't anything conclusive.

It's a tournament randomly in the middle of August...most of these guys would be training at this point or attending some parties at this age.

 

[francis246]

In past decade or so there were many fans certain all of these guys were going make an impact
Kenny Ryan
Jesse Blacker
Matt Frattin
Greg McKegg
Stuart Percy
Matt Finn
Jeremy Bracco
Nick Robertson

In Fairness Matt Frattin was a pretty decent NHLer, the NHL is weird sometimes, a guy can be a goal scorer and then can be out of the NHL the next. Sticking in the NHL is yes mostly skill based, but it’s also about having guys on the coaching staff and management team who believe in you and are willing to give you opportunity. Without that you’re done really. Greg McKegg is still kicking around and has had a pretty solid NHL career.

Stuart Percy if not for a devastating him injury would have been a good #4/5. He looked great in his short stint.

Again I’ve been a leafs fan my entire life, there’s really only 4 overhyped prospects that failed hugely. Jiri Tlusty, Tyler Biggs, Luke Schenn (to a certain extent) and Justin Pogge.

The rest you listed I don’t think a majority of the fan base thought they were all stars or impact guys.

 

[123offtheglass]

A few world junior games mean pretty little, but Knies was disappointing.

I think he can instantly become a good bottom 6 checker for the Leafs but maybe not more than that yet; it's good for his development that he's staying at NCAA level atm.

 

[egd27]

In Fairness Matt Frattin was a pretty decent NHLer, the NHL is weird sometimes, a guy can be a goal scorer and then can be out of the NHL the next. Sticking in the NHL is yes mostly skill based, but it’s also about having guys on the coaching staff and management team who believe in you and are willing to give you opportunity. Without that you’re done really. Greg McKegg is still kicking around and has had a pretty solid NHL career.

Stuart Percy if not for a devastating him injury would have been a good #4/5. He looked great in his short stint.

Again I’ve been a leafs fan my entire life, there’s really only 4 overhyped prospects that failed hugely. Jiri Tlusty, Tyler Biggs, Luke Schenn (to a certain extent) and Justin Pogge.

The rest you listed I don’t think a majority of the fan base thought they were all stars or impact guys.

1. There was a major debate pitting Frattin against Kadri
2. Kicking around is much different than a successful Top 6 forward
3. Always ifs
4. I never said the majority of Leaf fans, I said "it's typical of many Leaf fans to expect their prospects to exceed their current abilities". There were a number of posters ready to parachute Knies onto the 2nd line heading into to the series with Tampa. That's who I was posting about.

 

[francis246]

1. There was a major debate pitting Frattin against Kadri
2. Kicking around is much different than a successful Top 6 forward
3. Always ifs
4. I never said the majority of Leaf fans, I said "it's typical of many Leaf fans to expect their prospects to exceed their current abilities". There were a number of posters ready to parachute Knies onto the 2nd line heading into to the series with Tampa. That's who I was posting about.

Knies would have fit in that second line. Like I explained before. He was at a peak in performance at that point in time. He was at the top of his game and really in form. You can’t look at his performance 3/4 months after he was at the top of his game and is now not in peak form and go “look see I knew it was dumb to assume he would be effective in the playoffs”.

I’m sure you’re knowledgeable about sports and performance. So you’d definitely understand what I’m trying to articulate. There is no reason to suggest that he wouldn’t have maintained the level of play that garnered so much attention at that time, in the playoffs.

The other dumb argument I’ve seen in this thread is he can barely dominate guys his own age, he wouldn’t be able to do it against guys older than him. He was one of the best players in the NCAA as freshman against guys who are 20, 21, 22, 23 and possibly even 24.

 

[justashadowof]

Nothing wrong with being enthusiastic about your favourite team's prospects. Nothing wrong with hyping your absolute favourite indvidual prospect. Nothing wrong with having debates over which prospect is the best one. Nothing wrong with debating the qualities of any prospect. Nothing wrong with having an off-the-wall positive opinion on obscure prospect x.

About specific names dropped above:

Frattin looked really promising up that point his knee got injured going for an empty net goal in the AHL playoffs. Looked like a possible NHL scorer. After that, he was middling skater who couldn't get open shots, wasn't particularly physical or wasn't very high hockey iq. Too bad.

Players like Dermott (I guess there's still an outside chance of advancement) and McKegg aren't great drafting wins. They turned out to be run of the mill NHLers of which are always available in surplus on the trade and free agent markets.

Drafting wins are hitting on those rare talents that aren't common and easily sourced. Drafting your starting goalie for the next 10 years is a huge drafting win. Drafting a high end scoring forward is obviously a huge drafting win. Drafting a consistently top 4 defender is a drafting win. And drafting any regular shift power forward even if he isn't an offensive juggernaut is a big drafting win because these players don't become available in their prime very often. Also it saves spending a 1st round pick on some broken down former power forward type at the trade deadline.

 

[egd27]

Knies would have fit in that second line. Like I explained before. He was at a peak in performance at that point in time. He was at the top of his game and really in form. You can’t look at his performance 3/4 months after he was at the top of his game and is now not in peak form and go “look see I knew it was dumb to assume he would be effective in the playoffs”.

I’m sure you’re knowledgeable about sports and performance. So you’d definitely understand what I’m trying to articulate. There is no reason to suggest that he wouldn’t have maintained the level of play that garnered so much attention at that time, in the playoffs.

The other dumb argument I’ve seen in this thread is he can barely dominate guys his own age, he wouldn’t be able to do it against guys older than him. He was one of the best players in the NCAA as freshman against guys who are 20, 21, 22, 23 and possibly even 24.

Think we're going have to agree to disagree on this one.

I hope he turns out to be a solid Top 6 winger, I just don't think he was ready to make his NHL debut on the 2nd line in a series against a team Tampa.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Knies look good against other professional hockey players at 19 years old in the Olympics, it's not the Tampa Bay Lightning but I think if he's pushing himself in the gym between games in the NCAA, he could help our middle 6 later on this season.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

You know what, not worth responding to false comments like this. Delete

Da truth always hurts but you gotta be real .. don't know da kid at all and only seen him play 1 game and it was on TV which is a bad way to scout a kid .. but he is another slow guy to add to collection of slower guys on our roster .. looks like he has some skill though .. and his skating issue is not stride length as he takes a full stride it is either power in his legs or he use of edges of his blades .. like I said I could not really tell unless I was on ice with him

 

[Mess]

After watching Knies closely in this tournament, I think he made the correct decision to stay in school and continue to develop his game. This was his last chance to shine in a WJC as he ages out of this premier tourney now.

He did not look like an NHL ready prospect at this point of time, and more development time required to continue to build on his powerforward game. Rather than being rushed onto a Leafs roster, where he wasn't even dominate at the junior level, he is best served back in the NCAA and away from the daily scrutiny of a top prospect.

Lets hope he gets back to that level of play and confidence that we saw heading into the NCAA playoffs last year and then have him turn pro coming off a National Championship and may be a factor to the Leafs when he is back at the top of his game.

 

[Recipe Unlimited]

In past decade or so there were many fans certain all of these guys were going make an impact
Kenny Ryan
Jesse Blacker
Matt Frattin
Greg McKegg
Stuart Percy
Matt Finn
Jeremy Bracco
Nick Robertson

I think you are exaggerating the hype on most of these players. The only ones that had any hype were Bracco, Robertson (who can still prove his hype) and maybe Percy after his short stint in the NHL. The rest of those players were pretty run of the mill prospects and not hyped up by Leaf fans.

 

[egd27]

I think you are exaggerating the hype on most of these players. The only ones that had any hype were Bracco, Robertson (who can still prove his hype) and maybe Percy after his short stint in the NHL. The rest of those players were pretty run of the mill prospects and not hyped up by Leaf fans.

Kadri or Frattin

Who's better or more valuable this year? I thought this needs a thread this year.

forums.hfboards.com

Jesse Blacker

How has he played this year? I have only seen him play once or twice. Can anyone that has seen him play more tell me what you think of him? He is a defenseman and was a Leafs 2nd round pick in 2009 and recorded 54 points in 62 games this season and 12 points in 15 games in the playoffs in the...

forums.hfboards.com

Prospect Info: - Matt Finn

Sorry mods if this shouldn't be a single thread but would rather some quick answers. Is this guy getting overrated or is he a really valuable piece? I don't pay much attention to him honestly, so I don't know how he is been, so I am surprised by in the Trades/FA talk how for tyutin/Giordano...

forums.hfboards.com

I'll stop there

 

[13pacheco31]

Kadri or Frattin

Who's better or more valuable this year? I thought this needs a thread this year.

forums.hfboards.com

Jesse Blacker

How has he played this year? I have only seen him play once or twice. Can anyone that has seen him play more tell me what you think of him? He is a defenseman and was a Leafs 2nd round pick in 2009 and recorded 54 points in 62 games this season and 12 points in 15 games in the playoffs in the...

forums.hfboards.com

Prospect Info: - Matt Finn

Sorry mods if this shouldn't be a single thread but would rather some quick answers. Is this guy getting overrated or is he a really valuable piece? I don't pay much attention to him honestly, so I don't know how he is been, so I am surprised by in the Trades/FA talk how for tyutin/Giordano...

forums.hfboards.com

I'll stop there

None of those threads suggest any of those guys were certain to make an impact. The frattin thread is discussing whether frattin has a better shot of making it that year over kadri, which I believe he did at that time. The other 2 threads discussed blacker and Finn's potential but no one said they were top end prospects

 

[egd27]

None of those threads suggest any of those guys were certain to make an impact. The frattin thread is discussing whether frattin has a better shot of making it that year over kadri, which I believe he did at that time. The other 2 threads discussed blacker and Finn's potential but no one said they were top end prospects

I guess it depends on your definition of "top end"

 

[LeafChief]

Kadri or Frattin

Who's better or more valuable this year? I thought this needs a thread this year.

forums.hfboards.com

Jesse Blacker

How has he played this year? I have only seen him play once or twice. Can anyone that has seen him play more tell me what you think of him? He is a defenseman and was a Leafs 2nd round pick in 2009 and recorded 54 points in 62 games this season and 12 points in 15 games in the playoffs in the...

forums.hfboards.com

Prospect Info: - Matt Finn

Sorry mods if this shouldn't be a single thread but would rather some quick answers. Is this guy getting overrated or is he a really valuable piece? I don't pay much attention to him honestly, so I don't know how he is been, so I am surprised by in the Trades/FA talk how for tyutin/Giordano...

forums.hfboards.com

I'll stop there

LOL.

Every single player drafted by the team gets a thread. What a big secret you've just uncovered. @FBI hire this man.

 

[ULF_55]

In Fairness Matt Frattin was a pretty decent NHLer, the NHL is weird sometimes, a guy can be a goal scorer and then can be out of the NHL the next. Sticking in the NHL is yes mostly skill based, but it’s also about having guys on the coaching staff and management team who believe in you and are willing to give you opportunity. Without that you’re done really. Greg McKegg is still kicking around and has had a pretty solid NHL career.

Stuart Percy if not for a devastating him injury would have been a good #4/5. He looked great in his short stint.

Again I’ve been a leafs fan my entire life, there’s really only 4 overhyped prospects that failed hugely. Jiri Tlusty, Tyler Biggs, Luke Schenn (to a certain extent) and Justin Pogge.

The rest you listed I don’t think a majority of the fan base thought they were all stars or impact guys.

Well Tlusty did play 450 NHL games, but he looked pretty good as a kid then had a good season at age 24, but yes a disappointment.

Tyler Biggs? He wasn't even good enough to be a disappointment. More a Burke indictment.

Luke Schenn ... I really hope Knies isn't in the same vein.
Yes, Schenn has had a nice long career, but he never amounted to what was expected.

Of course here was another miss: Dan Hodgson Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

 

[Recipe Unlimited]

Kadri or Frattin

Who's better or more valuable this year? I thought this needs a thread this year.

forums.hfboards.com

Jesse Blacker

How has he played this year? I have only seen him play once or twice. Can anyone that has seen him play more tell me what you think of him? He is a defenseman and was a Leafs 2nd round pick in 2009 and recorded 54 points in 62 games this season and 12 points in 15 games in the playoffs in the...

forums.hfboards.com

Prospect Info: - Matt Finn

Sorry mods if this shouldn't be a single thread but would rather some quick answers. Is this guy getting overrated or is he a really valuable piece? I don't pay much attention to him honestly, so I don't know how he is been, so I am surprised by in the Trades/FA talk how for tyutin/Giordano...

forums.hfboards.com

I'll stop there

Frattin is almost 3 years older than Kadri. The fact that there's a discussion of who would make the Leafs sooner doesn't help your argument.

The threads on Finn and Blacker are just your standard "He's looking pretty good in Juniors, looking forward to seeing him in pro!" type of posts that you would probably see for literally every prospect outside of busts.

 

[13pacheco31]

I guess it depends on your definition of "top end"

If you actually bothered to read the threads it would be pretty clear that these guys weren't as hypes as you claim they were. You showing this just kind of proved the other posters point. Everyone agreed that Finn's skating and injury pronness was an issue, there was no consensus on blacker, and the frattin discussion only pertained to that particular up coming season.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

wtf is the current argument even about

 

[egd27]

LOL.

Every single player drafted by the team gets a thread. What a big secret you've just uncovered. @FBI hire this man.

Frattin is almost 3 years older than Kadri. The fact that there's a discussion of who would make the Leafs sooner doesn't help your argument.

The threads on Finn and Blacker are just your standard "He's looking pretty good in Juniors, looking forward to seeing him in pro!" type of posts that you would probably see for literally every prospect outside of busts.

If you actually bothered to read the threads it would be pretty clear that these guys weren't as hypes as you claim they were. You showing this just kind of proved the other posters point. Everyone agreed that Finn's skating and injury pronness was an issue, there was no consensus on blacker, and the frattin discussion only pertained to that particular up coming season.

I stand corrected, there is obviously not a group of posters that have overestimated Leaf prospects over the past 10 years or so.