2021-22 Utica Comets and ECHL thread - part V

[Tao Jersey Jones]

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Ehhh this isn't how you are supposed to close the season out going into the playoffs...

 

[Nubmer6]

Comets playing their typical own zone d. 5 guys down low standing around and waiting for the opponent to do something. Are you kidding me Dineen. This is not a defensive scheme that will win games.

Sounds like the Devils' D, which would kind of make sense since I presume Utica is supposed to play the same system.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Sounds like the Devils' D, which would kind of make sense since I presume Utica is supposed to play the same system.

Sad state of affairs since there is no system. looks like Fitz has another task this offseason. No team can win consistently playing all offense and no defense. It's never happened and it never will.

 

[NJ07102]

Sad state of affairs since there is no system. looks like Fitz has another task this offseason. No team can win consistently playing all offense and no defense. It's never happened and it never will.

Exactly. I think I have never seen a team blow as many multiple goal leads as they have. That is just terrible. Besides, I don't get why everyone seems to think Holtz is gonna be a great NHL player. I simply don't see it, sorry.

 

[Nubmer6]

Exactly. I think I have never seen a team blow as many multiple goal leads as they have. That is just terrible. Besides, I don't get why everyone seems to think Holtz is gonna be a great NHL player. I simply don't see it, sorry.

Ah... I was hoping to read a dissenting voice on Holtz. Have you watched a lot of him? If so, what makes you come to your conclusion? Is it his speed? Defensive ability?

 

[NJ07102]

Ah... I was hoping to read a dissenting voice on Holtz. Have you watched a lot of him? If so, what makes you come to your conclusion? Is it his speed? Defensive ability?

Watched basically all Utica games, yes. And I am not impressed by anything Holtz does. He is just another guy at this point. Once opposing teams started to concentrate on his one weapon, he does absolutely nothing. And when he gets his shot off these days, he shoots it into the goalie or over the crossbar. I know I am probably the only one here with this opinion, so I am sure I am wrong and everybody else is right. Nothing we can do but wait another two or three years, only then somebody will be able to say "I told you so".

 

[Nubmer6]

Watched basically all Utica games, yes. And I am not impressed by anything Holtz does. He is just another guy at this point. Once opposing teams started to concentrate on his one weapon, he does absolutely nothing. And when he gets his shot off these days, he shoots it into the goalie or over the crossbar. I know I am probably the only one here with this opinion, so I am sure I am wrong and everybody else is right. Nothing we can do but wait another two or three years, only then somebody will be able to say "I told you so".

Well, I'm not one that would say "I told you so". I like differing views to avoid "group think". I was just wondering what his flaws were, and if they're fixable or not... if they're things he'll get better at as he gets more experience.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Utica clinches the North Division title on Wednesday with: (a) a win at Cleveland

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Watched basically all Utica games, yes. And I am not impressed by anything Holtz does. He is just another guy at this point. Once opposing teams started to concentrate on his one weapon, he does absolutely nothing. And when he gets his shot off these days, he shoots it into the goalie or over the crossbar. I know I am probably the only one here with this opinion, so I am sure I am wrong and everybody else is right. Nothing we can do but wait another two or three years, only then somebody will be able to say "I told you so".

Utica is a + team. 20 players are +. 10 players are +10 or more. 10 players are -. Before last night Holtz was tied for last with -5. Now he's up to -4. DeLeo and Thompson are -3. Wotherspoon leads with +23

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

 

[Triumph]

Utica is a + team. 20 players are +. 10 players are +10 or more. 10 players are -. Before last night Holtz was tied for last with -5. Now he's up to -4. DeLeo and Thompson are -3. Wotherspoon leads with +23

The problem is that we have no idea how often Holtz plays with an empty net on his own side versus an empty net on his opposition's. A forward who plays point on the PP, doesn't kill penalties, doesn't typically play with the opposition's net empty, and plays with his own net empty likely has a baseline +/- of around -8.

 

[Guttersniped]

The problem is that we have no idea how often Holtz plays with an empty net on his own side versus an empty net on his opposition's. A forward who plays point on the PP, doesn't kill penalties, doesn't typically play with the opposition's net empty, and plays with his own net empty likely has a baseline +/- of around -8.

Jack Quinn is a -9 he so he must really suck.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Jack Quinn is a -9 he so he must really suck.

+/- is best used relative to players on the same team (but you already knew that). Rochester is a minus team. 30 players are - on Rochester. Seven players are +.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

The problem is that we have no idea how often Holtz plays with an empty net on his own side versus an empty net on his opposition's. A forward who plays point on the PP, doesn't kill penalties, doesn't typically play with the opposition's net empty, and plays with his own net empty likely has a baseline +/- of around -8.

PP and PK don't affect +/- unless you are implying he is getting less ES TOI when he's on the PP. Empty nets are the difference between Holtz' -4 and Foote's +16

 

[Triumph]

PP and PK don't affect +/- unless you are implying he is getting less ES TOI when he's on the PP. Empty nets are the difference between Holtz' -4 and Foote's +16

Sigh. Yes they do. Players get a + for shorthanded goals for and a - for shorthanded goals against. Now I don't care how good you are on the power play, you will give up shorthanded goals against, especially if you are the fourth forward on the PP. That's just part of the deal - Alex Ovechkin has been on the ice for 79 short handed goals against since 2007-08. That's a -79 he can't get back. Moreover, since Holtz is the 4th forward, he almost always changes for a defenseman at the end of the power play, so he will seldom get credit for a + for a goal that is scored 0-20 seconds after a PP ends.

Likewise, even bad penalty kill scorers find some goals during that game state, and those are free +'s.

+/- is bad. It'd be a whole lot better if they got rid of counting it for empty net goals or anything that's not even strength.

 

[Guttersniped]

+/- is best used relative to players on the same team (but you already knew that). Rochester is a minus team. 30 players are - on Rochester. Seven players are +.

Quinn is their 2nd leading scorer and their leading scorer is -7.

I don’t care about +/- much but there’s context to every stat.

Holtz was called up after 4 games and missed 8 wins between Nov 5-20 where the goal differential was +21. (Obviously that’s not all going to player’s +/-.)

He got back on Nov 24 to see the streak end with 4-2 loss with Daws in net. (And he scored one of the goals.)

The next time Daws played, Dec 8th, he would get injured and be out until 1/15. Then Schmid was called up on Dec 10th. So he missed the high point of the goalie tandem.

He still was getting pluses early on because he scored a lot on even strength. Holtz has only been picking up a lot more minuses more lately. That happens when you and your line-mates personally score less and your team loses more.

On Feb 9th, after 25 games, Holtz was +8.
On March 23rd, after 40 games, Holtz was +3.
On April 19th, after 50 games, Holtz is -4.

To me, the team lacks what it always was going to obviously lack, centers and play drivers. De Leo was a nice add, not sure how much Flynn is bringing. (Poturalski would have been a nice add but such is life.)

It’s also unfortunate that we lost two of those: Schnarr (center) and Studenic (play driver). We have a bunch of scoring winger prospects and not that many people to feed them or keep possession. It’s the opposite of the 2019-20 which had a lot of big centers and playmaking wingers (not much in the scoring winger department).

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Sigh. Yes they do. Players get a + for shorthanded goals for and a - for shorthanded goals against. Now I don't care how good you are on the power play, you will give up shorthanded goals against, especially if you are the fourth forward on the PP. That's just part of the deal - Alex Ovechkin has been on the ice for 79 short handed goals against since 2007-08. That's a -79 he can't get back. Moreover, since Holtz is the 4th forward, he almost always changes for a defenseman at the end of the power play, so he will seldom get credit for a + for a goal that is scored 0-20 seconds after a PP ends.

Likewise, even bad penalty kill scorers find some goals during that game state, and those are free +'s.

+/- is bad. It'd be a whole lot better if they got rid of counting it for empty net goals or anything that's not even strength.

Checks Utica's SHGA. Four.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Quinn is their 2nd leading scorer and their leading scorer is -7.

I don’t care about +/- much but there’s context to every stat.

Holtz was called up after 4 games and missed 8 wins between Nov 5-20 where the goal differential was +21. (Obviously that’s not all going to player’s +/-.)

He got back on Nov 24 to see the streak end with 4-2 loss with Daws in net. (And he scored one of the goals.)

The next time Daws played, Dec 8th, he would get injured and be out until 1/15. Then Schmid was called up on Dec 10th. So he missed the high point of the goalie tandem.

He still was getting pluses early on because he scored a lot on even strength. Holtz has only been picking up a lot more minuses more lately. That happens when you and your line-mates personally score less and your team loses more.

On Feb 9th, after 25 games, Holtz was +8.
On March 23rd, after 40 games, Holtz was +3.
On April 19th, after 50 games, Holtz is -4.

To me, the team lacks what it always was going to obviously lack, centers and play drivers. De Leo was a nice add, not sure how much Flynn is bringing. (Poturalski would have been a nice add but such is life.)

It’s also unfortunate that we lost two of those: Schnarr (center) and Studenic (play driver). We have a bunch of scoring winger prospects and not that many people to feed them or keep possession. It’s the opposite of the 2019-20 which had a lot of big centers and playmaking wingers (not much in the scoring winger department).

I have nothing against Jack Quinn. You're the one threw out his -9 without context. I provided context for Holtz by comparing him to his teammates, which is about the only thing+/- is good for. I was responding to a post questioning Holtz' defensive ability. A player at the bottom of a team's +/- probably isn't a defensive stalwart.

 

[Triumph]

Checks Utica's SHGA. Four.

Okay, so that's one source. How about empty net goals for and against?

I have nothing against Jack Quinn. You're the one threw out his -9 without context. I provided context for Holtz by comparing him to his teammates, which is about the only thing+/- is good for. I was responding to a post questioning Holtz' defensive ability. A player at the bottom of a team's +/- probably isn't a defensive stalwart.

+/- is not good for that because you are not comparing him to his teammates. His teammates do not play in the same situations he does. A player who plays PK but not the PP, who is out for empty net situations against but not for, will have a significant advantage in +/- versus a player who does the reverse. It's on the order of 10 goals a year.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Okay, so that's one source. How about empty net goals for and against?



+/- is not good for that because you are not comparing him to his teammates. His teammates do not play in the same situations he does. A player who plays PK but not the PP, who is out for empty net situations against but not for, will have a significant advantage in +/- versus a player who does the reverse. It's on the order of 10 goals a year.

If Holtz not being used on the PK that indicates he is not strong defensively. If he's not protecting a lead it's because he is not trusted defensively.

23 ENGF
7 ENGA

+16 differential

29 Comet skaters have a better +/- than Holtz due to deployment on empty net and shorthanded situations. Got it.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Watched basically all Utica games, yes. And I am not impressed by anything Holtz does. He is just another guy at this point. Once opposing teams started to concentrate on his one weapon, he does absolutely nothing. And when he gets his shot off these days, he shoots it into the goalie or over the crossbar. I know I am probably the only one here with this opinion, so I am sure I am wrong and everybody else is right. Nothing we can do but wait another two or three years, only then somebody will be able to say "I told you so".

I am definitely leaning in your direction. He does make very good passes when he uses his brain. The times he doesn't he follows the Comets rule of handle the puck until ypou have nowhere to go and are covered, pass the puck directly into the defender or worse into a muddle of players hoping to complete it to your guys on the back side of the mess. Result is turnover after turnover. He also can't score a breakaway goal to save his ass. usually has at least 1/game. Also comes back on D and has become better than most of the prospects which is not very good to begin with.

 

[UticaHockey]

Comets playing their typical own zone d. 5 guys down low standing around and waiting for the opponent to do something. Are you kidding me Dineen. This is not a defensive scheme that will win games.

I generally like what Dineen has done with this team but his defensive zone system is bewildering. The Comets never defend the points during 5 on 5. They just keep all 5 players down low and get stuck in their own zone for extended periods of time when the opposition starts using the points to keep possession. We actually defend better on the PK because we put pressure on the points.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Utica is a + team. 20 players are +. 10 players are +10 or more. 10 players are -. Before last night Holtz was tied for last with -5. Now he's up to -4. DeLeo and Thompson are -3. Wotherspoon leads with +23

Last night Thompson was on the ice for 3 of the 4GA. The 2nd resulted directly from a pass he tried to make off hisa own half boards to the center of the ice. It weas cleanly interrcepted and deposited in the Comets goal for the tying goal.

I'm not a fan of +/-. I like to keep track of who is on the ice for goals against regardless of the situation and use the total with the the number of games played.

Comets are 1-5 in their last 6 GP and 3-7 in the last 10

Let's look at the team's goal scorers (Top10):
Zetterlund - 47GA/58GP, kills some penalties,but not many.
Has been in NJ during the last 5 games
+5
A.J. Greer - 44 GA/50GP, main PKer
Has been in NJ the last 5 games.
+13

Deleo - 47 GA/51/GP, kills penalties
In the last 5 games he has been on the ice for 9 GA
-3

Holtz - 46 GA/50GP, does not kill penalties.
In the last 5 games he has been on the ice for 7 GA
-4

Thompson - 20 GA/13GP, does kill penalties.
In the last 5 games he has been on the ice for 11 GA of which 1 was on the PK.
-3

Walsh - 57 GA/67GP, main PKer
In the last 5 games he has been on the ice for 5 GA
+9

Russo - 67 GA/67GP, main PKer
In the last 5 games he has been on the ice for 5 GA
+11

Foote - 28 GA/54GP, not a PKer
in the last 5 games he was on the ice for 6 GA
+16

Gauthier - 36 GA/51GP, main PKer
Injured for the past 5 games.
+17

Schmelzer - 34 GA/60GP, main PKer
In the last 5 games he has been on the ice for 2GA.
+11

Gambardella - 26 GA/61GP, main PKer
In the last 5 games he has been on the ice for 2 GA
+5

The other D-men
Bahl - 49 GA/54GP, main PKer
Has been in NJ for the last 5 games.
+15

Wotherspoon - 55 GA/51GP, main PKer
in the past 5 games he has been on the ice for 7 GA, of which 1 was on the PK
+23

Okhotyuk - 47 GA/63GP, main PKer
in the past 5 games he has been on the ice for 4 GA, of which 1 was on the PK
+10

Vukojevic - 35 GA/50GP/ kills penalties
In the past 5 games he was on the ice for 4 GA
+7

Groleau - 37 GA/46GP
in the past 5 games he was on the ice for 7GA, of which 2 were on the PK
-5
+/- can be very deceiving

 

[Devils731]

I generally like what Dineen has done with this team but his defensive zone system is bewildering. The Comets never defend the points during 5 on 5. They just keep all 5 players down low and get stuck in their own zone for extended periods of time when the opposition starts using the points to keep possession. We actually defend better on the PK because we put pressure on the points.

NJ has that issue too, so I assume it comes from trying to run the same/similar system.