GDT: 2021-22 season game 18 LA Kings vs Arizona Coyotes @7:00pm 11/21/21

[Raccoon Jesus]

Not saying that Dustin Brown had any impact, but xGF% is a crap stat and people should stop quoting it.

I hate it myself but less than 10% is horrendous. The stats that back it up are -22.26 CF%rel (5 shots for, 9 against), -56.25 SCF%rel (0 scoring chnaces for, 4 against), -62.50 HDCF%rel. I just thought one stat would be a neat illustration since everyone had eyes but the behind-the-scenes is a crime scene. This guy is a corpse on the ice.

 

[AbsentMojo]

Lieweke I assume

Yes Lieweke thanks for reminder - who we didnt like for a long time bullshit artist (Lie Weakly).. but DL got him on board w rebuild and it was because of that AEG buy-in allowed the team to rebuild properly - so in the end he was a good.

 

[Sol]

ok @Sol prepare for launch we're strapping the whole f***ing organization into the sun

Yep @Sol ….I’m on board now.

I'm fueling the f***ing rocket as we speak.

 

[cyclones22]

Team rarely ever seems to click all at once.

That's because the minute a line starts producing well for a few games TMc will break it up. One of the young players on that line will be demoted after making a mistake.

 

[kilowatt]

I hate it myself but less than 10% is horrendous. The stats that back it up are -22.26 CF%rel (5 shots for, 9 against), -56.25 SCF%rel (0 scoring chnaces for, 4 against), -62.50 HDCF%rel. I just thought one stat would be a neat illustration since everyone had eyes but the behind-the-scenes is a crime scene. This guy is a corpse on the ice.

I feel like we've both been Brown defenders for a long time, but it's finally time to call a spade a spade and wish him the best on his farewell tour. I'm just afraid that he'll want to come back for another year and I'm not sure Blake and Luc will have the guts to say no.

 

[funky]

It’s time for the coach to sit a veteran and make an example. This team needs a massive wake up call. If you’re not gonna perform you’re going to sit. We have lots of hungry youth in the organization that are fighting for a spot.

Dustin Brown is the obvious choice right now. His place is horrendous and he’s dragging down whatever line he is on.

I also think it’s time to trade a vet or two. AA is an interesting niche player but is bad at hockey. I don’t think we go full Moneyball but Todd can’t play he doesn’t have.

Bench Brown, trade AA, possible Kempe. Let the kids play. Maatta to the sun. Wake this team up

 

[cyclones22]

Many of us were willing to give TMc a chance when he was first hired. I was fully on board that train until about the mid-point of last season. When it became obvious that he was dicking around the young players and over-playing the veterans. Same thing this season. Let's put it this way, if your kid is gifted, are you cool with him/her being in courses suited for basic aptitude? How is he/she going to reach their potential in that environment? No, you place them in courses surrounded by similarly gifted students with a teacher/prof who knows the curriculum. And you certainly don't get them a tutor who has a 2-star Yelp rating or some shit. Our top prospects are the gifted. You do everything you can to make sure they reach their potential. Not throw them in some sink or swim scenario and hope for the best.

 

[KINGS17]

I'm fueling the f***ing rocket as we speak.

Luc to his Crimson Tide Captain: USS Alabama - "Kings fan dissidents are fueling their rockets. Set target package 'Sol'. The use of nuclear weapons has been authorized."

 

[kilowatt]

My ideal scenario would be two veterans and a rookie on every line. Win or lose, get these kids the experience they need.

Play Kaliyev in the top six. Bring up Turcotte or Fagemo. Kupari is in a good position if he can get better at face offs. Bring up JAD for fourth line duty.

Turcotte - Kopitar - Arvidsson
Iafallo - Danault - Kaliyev
Kempe - Kupari - Moore
JAD - Lizotte - Lemieux

Bjornfot - Doughty
Anderson - Roy
Edler - Clague

Trade Maatta and Athanasiou, rotate Brown and Grundstrom in so that everyone is playing every four out of five games or so, and focus on putting the rookies into situations they need to be in.

 

[KingsFan7824]

I feel like we've both been Brown defenders for a long time, but it's finally time to call a spade a spade and wish him the best on his farewell tour. I'm just afraid that he'll want to come back for another year and I'm not sure Blake and Luc will have the guts to say no.

They've gotten rid of other guys. Everyone they could, when they could. Even their first big free agent signing. They barely even gave the Cup core a chance to try and right the ship in 18-19.

If Luc did indeed push DL out in a power grab, then it's not like he's got a ton of loyalty to his character.

There's really no evidence to suggest they'll give Brown another deal.

 

[Sol]

Luc to his Crimson Tide Captain: "Kings fan dissidents are fueling their rockets. Set target package 'Sol'. The use of nuclear weapons has been authorized."

They would do me like that. I'm trying to live that good life and call in an executive decision for the good of the navy, and the world. And they'd nuke me. Typical.

 

[johnjm22]

The vast majority of prospects are better served being slowly worked into the NHL. There are exceptions for phenomenal talents.

People seem to want a coach who's just going to throw a bunch kids into important roles right away. There's not a single coach in the NHL that would do that.

 

[bland]

The vast majority of prospects are better served being slowly worked into the NHL. There are exceptions for phenomenal talents.

People seem to want a coach who's just going to throw a bunch kids into important roles right away. There's not a single coach in the NHL that would do that.

It happens every night.

 

[madmartigan]

My ideal scenario would be two veterans and a rookie on every line. Win or lose, get these kids the experience they need.

Play Kaliyev in the top six. Bring up Turcotte or Fagemo. Kupari is in a good position if he can get better at face offs. Bring up JAD for fourth line duty.

Turcotte - Kopitar - Arvidsson
Iafallo - Danault - Kaliyev
Kempe - Kupari - Moore
JAD - Lizotte - Lemieux

Bjornfot - Doughty
Anderson - Roy
Edler - Clague

Trade Maatta and Athanasiou, rotate Brown and Grundstrom in so that everyone is playing every four out of five games or so, and focus on putting the rookies into situations they need to be in.

I like it (though not optimistic we will see it). Where does QB fit?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I feel like we've both been Brown defenders for a long time, but it's finally time to call a spade a spade and wish him the best on his farewell tour. I'm just afraid that he'll want to come back for another year and I'm not sure Blake and Luc will have the guts to say no.

Yup I was defending the hell out of Brown during his 30 point seasons because the play driving was still there as were the smarts, effort, PK. That's all gone now.

It happens every night.

Damn right it does. Gonna plagiarize myself from the other thread but it's not 1990 anymore, I dont' know why posters are acting like TM is a genius and this is a totally normal thing when in fact the BEST teams in the league are doing this night in and night out (AND the Ducks and Sharks):

• Washington Capitals' entire 2nd line from the other night is 24, 20, 23--Jonsson-Fjallby, McMichael, Sprong--and they were right in the middle six of their teams ice time. Protas, 20, got 14 minutes as well on their 4th line (3.5 the other night i guess with injuries). Brett Leason, 22, got more on the 4th line than ours did that night and more than Kupari the other night.
• Carolina's top line the other night--Svechnikov, Aho, Jarvis: 21, 24, 19. Deployed offensively. Imagine that.
  
• Jets--Don't really believe I need to say much about Connor, PLD. Deployed offensively. DOn't the Jets know they should be checkers?
  
• Colorado Avalanche played Newhook 16 minutes last night, more than Rantanen, and something called a Logan O'Connor 15 minutes. Guess they didn't get the memo that newhook should be 4C-ing in the dzone.
  
• St. Louis--Robert Thomas is a fixture on their top line and played 19.5 minutes the other night. Kyrou, top six winger, 16 minutes. Clearly they have no clue what they're doing.

There. In addition to the Ducks and Sharks 'ain't it' ing, a who's who of the top teams in the league shows teams playing their young F prospects a LOT and in positions befitting their skillsets. If you wonder why I act like people are taking crazy pills when talking about prospect playing time, THIS IS WHY. Some folks are acting like it's totally normal to bury skill players; this isn't 1990.

Don't give me this bullshit about the Kings being too good or their vets too good or their prospects too bad to not get playing time like this. It's inexcusable and frankly if you look at the teams who have integrated them into spots where they can be successful (there's the catch, I suppose--it requires a brain or an attitude of "i'm going to help you be successful" rather than some misplaced old school "well if you can't check on the 4th line you can't be on the PP"), those teams are enjoying great success as are their prospects. Mutual success instead of "beat this shitty vet by being a good 4th line checker or rot in the AHL forever."

It appears our organization is one of an absolutely precious few who wants to draft blue chip talent and then insult it. I feel pretty good about my stance on this issue and the first place teams around the league agree with me.

 

[lumbergh]

If you had to guess, how closely do you think expected goals line up with actual goals over the course of an NHL season?

I'll just quote my own post from January 25:

"The most useful stat is goals for vs. goals against, aka Goals For % (GF%). It generally will tell you who is gonna win, because the team with a high GF% generally outscores the other team.

The only "advanced stat" that has a strong correlation with the goals for % is PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage). It doesn't take an advanced degree (although I have one) to figure that out. This is important: PDO is NOT an indication of "puck luck" or whatever that is. PDO indicates how good your team is at outscoring the other team.

You can determine correlation coefficients, or how well something tracks with something else, on Excel using the data from Natural Stat Trick, but I'll just give you a synopsis:
Correlation coefficients with GF%
PDO >0.8 (strong correlation)
Corsi For % ~0.4 (very weak)
Fenwick For % < 0.4 (little correlation)
Shots For % ~0.4 (very weak)
Expected Goals For % (xGF%) ~0.5 (weak)
Scoring chances for % (SCF%) ~0.5 (weak)

That bold part tells you that the person who invented xGF% only has a mild understanding of what makes a good player or a good team. All the other stats are only meaningful in telling you about possession, but possession is only mildly correlated with the score.

This is all to say, advanced stats, as they currently exist, are only mildly indicative of quality of a team or a player. Take them with the grain of salt they deserve. Put all your weight on them, and you will fall over spectacularly, because they are NOT dependable."

The answer to your question is the part that says "Expected Goals For % (xGF%) ~0.5 (weak)". What that means is that xGF% is only weakly correlated with actual GF%.

 

[lumbergh]

If you had to guess, how closely do you think expected goals line up with actual goals over the course of an NHL season?

Here's some data from this season:

All 32 teams sorted by 5vs5 GF%. You'll notice that there's a strong correlation with point %, meaning the higher GF% you have, the better you are at winning. You'll also notice that xGF% is all over the place. There's only a weak correlation between xGF% and actual GF%. That's telling you it's a crap stat. Whoever came up with xGF% doesn't know what actually results in one team outscoring another.

The one stat that is strongly correlated with GF% is PDO, as I've said before.

I can do this all day. There are good advanced stats, and crap advanced stats. Lot's of people talk a lot about crap advanced stats as if they mean a lot, when they actually mean very little.

 

[Sol]

Seeing the now unanimous consensus of executing McLellan and Co brings a smile to my face. Unity baby.

 

[shuchukfan]

I'm still annoyed with that officiating. I'm wondering if this is why the Rangers traded Lemieux because it seems like the officials have it out for him.

 

[kingsfan28]

My ideal scenario would be two veterans and a rookie on every line. Win or lose, get these kids the experience they need.

Play Kaliyev in the top six. Bring up Turcotte or Fagemo. Kupari is in a good position if he can get better at face offs. Bring up JAD for fourth line duty.

Turcotte - Kopitar - Arvidsson
Iafallo - Danault - Kaliyev
Kempe - Kupari - Moore
JAD - Lizotte - Lemieux

Bjornfot - Doughty
Anderson - Roy
Edler - Clague

Trade Maatta and Athanasiou, rotate Brown and Grundstrom in so that everyone is playing every four out of five games or so, and focus on putting the rookies into situations they need to be in.

Kupari is not ready for the NHL, especially at center. He was and has been terrible over the last 5 or so games and need to go back down. You guys want to bitch about Brown dragging down the line, how about that guy being damn near invisible at 3rd/4th line center? He can't play the position and has basically is a one trick pony, he can skate. Where's that awesome heavy shot, or his great skill with the puck. He can't even get out of his own zone at times. I noticed him ONCE last night.

 

[Lt Dan]

I noticed him ONCE last night.

let me guess... the embellishment call?

 

[kingsfan28]

Unfortunately I missed the game live because I'm sick, but my feelings remain the same, this is a bad team. 25th in goals per game, 24th PP, 24th PK, and zero scoring from the blue line. You can look for moral victories or "they just ran into a hot goaltender" excuses, but it's going to be hard to win consistently when you can't score and your special teams suck.

TM is stubborn as crap, and I'm about done with him. There is ZERO excuse for Kopi's ice time to be so high, ZERO.

I was never a fan of bringing back AA, but if you are going to play him get him the hell off the Danault line. The second like is about puck hounding and board battles, AA is an extremely streaky counter attacker who brings nothing else. He has no business being on that line. Slightly better Austin Wagner shouldn't be getting top 6 minutes

Brown is done, he's killing every line he''s on. The fact that Brown is still getting PP time speaks to how stubborn TM is.

Play the damn kids, and put them in a position to succeed

Brown is one of the few guys willing to stand in front of the net,and deflect shots, that's been his job as a King. We have a bunch of soft cocks who won't go there. Did you notice anyone there during that 2 min pp where they controlled the puck...NOT ONE F-ING GUY. It was all around the perimitter, nothing inside. One problem is we have nobody on defense who can shoot. Roy is approaching Randy Jones territory. One shot straight into the chest when there wasn't anyone within 20 feet of the net, that was the only shot on net. This is by far the worst shooting group of defensemen I ever seen the Kings dress. Kempe is our only threat from the point, that's how sad it is.

 

[kingsfan28]

let me guess... the embellishment call?

Bingo!

 

[Lt Dan]

Bingo!

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Here's some data from this season:
View attachment 482989
All 32 teams sorted by 5vs5 GF%. You'll notice that there's a strong correlation with point %, meaning the higher GF% you have, the better you are at winning. You'll also notice that xGF% is all over the place. There's only a weak correlation between xGF% and actual GF%. That's telling you it's a crap stat. Whoever came up with xGF% doesn't know what actually results in one team outscoring another.

The one stat that is strongly correlated with GF% is PDO, as I've said before.

I can do this all day. There are good advanced stats, and crap advanced stats. Lot's of people talk a lot about crap advanced stats as if they mean a lot, when they actually mean very little.

Nothing you laid out above actually addresses the question I asked of how closely expected goals lines up with actual goals scored over the course of the season. The truth is that there is an almost 1 to 1 correlation between xGF and the actual amount of goals scored over the course of the entire season:

(Data above from Jack Fraser aka jfresh)

Generally, the public models have actually underestimated by a slight margin, except for this season so far where the public models (other than NST) are slightly overestimating actual goals. No one statistic is the end-all be-all for describing the game, but if it were a complete “crap” number like you say, wouldn’t it be pretty terrible at forecasting actual goal scoring over the course of a season?