GDT: 2021-22 season game 18 LA Kings vs Arizona Coyotes @7:00pm 11/21/21

[Matt13]

Kupari is not ready for the NHL, especially at center. He was and has been terrible over the last 5 or so games and need to go back down. You guys want to bitch about Brown dragging down the line, how about that guy being damn near invisible at 3rd/4th line center? He can't play the position and has basically is a one trick pony, he can skate. Where's that awesome heavy shot, or his great skill with the puck. He can't even get out of his own zone at times. I noticed him ONCE last night.

I was think the same last night. I like the kid but I really want to win now. Send him down, bring up (What the) Frk and start playing Lias again and sitting Arty / Brown and Frk on a platoon.

 

[Schmooley]

Kupari is not ready for the NHL, especially at center. He was and has been terrible over the last 5 or so games and need to go back down. You guys want to bitch about Brown dragging down the line, how about that guy being damn near invisible at 3rd/4th line center? He can't play the position and has basically is a one trick pony, he can skate. Where's that awesome heavy shot, or his great skill with the puck. He can't even get out of his own zone at times. I noticed him ONCE last night.

He showed lots of upside early on and led the ahl team last season. All of a sudden hes not good enough and needs to be sent down after being strapped to the two worst players on the team right now in Moore and Brown.
This is what we are all talking about being put in a position to succeed. Im not so high on Kupari but to say Kupari is invinsible while playing with two guys that cant setup or keep possession is unreal. Kopitar would look bad between these two wingers also.

 

[King'sPawn]

The vast majority of prospects are better served being slowly worked into the NHL. There are exceptions for phenomenal talents.

People seem to want a coach who's just going to throw a bunch kids into important roles right away. There's not a single coach in the NHL that would do that.

Where has anyone said they want a bunch of kids in important roles?

How about 1 kid in a decent role where he has a chance to use his talents, supported by the appropriate vets?

 

[bland]

Brown is one of the few guys willing to stand in front of the net,and deflect shots, that's been his job as a King. We have a bunch of soft cocks who won't go there. Did you notice anyone there during that 2 min pp where they controlled the puck...NOT ONE F-ING GUY. It was all around the perimitter, nothing inside. One problem is we have nobody on defense who can shoot. Roy is approaching Randy Jones territory. One shot straight into the chest when there wasn't anyone within 20 feet of the net, that was the only shot on net. This is by far the worst shooting group of defensemen I ever seen the Kings dress. Kempe is our only threat from the point, that's how sad it is.

Absolute fiction.

Dustin Brown does not currently nor has he ever been a quality net front presence. Its always been one of the weakest parts of his game. He stands to the side of the net and limply waves his stick at pucks, he rarely positions himself for screens or deflections. He simply waits for rebounds to fall on to his stick or to be fed for easy tap-ins.



There are a lot of things Brown has done well over his career, but that ain't one of them.

 

[kilowatt]

Kupari is not ready for the NHL, especially at center. He was and has been terrible over the last 5 or so games and need to go back down. You guys want to bitch about Brown dragging down the line, how about that guy being damn near invisible at 3rd/4th line center? He can't play the position and has basically is a one trick pony, he can skate. Where's that awesome heavy shot, or his great skill with the puck. He can't even get out of his own zone at times. I noticed him ONCE last night.

I agree actually, but he's up, so it is what it is. I'd slot Byfield there when he gets back. I didn't want to draw too much ire by inserting Vilardi too, so I tried to work with what we've got.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I agree actually, but he's up, so it is what it is. I'd slot Byfield there when he gets back. I didn't want to draw too much ire by inserting Vilardi too, so I tried to work with what we've got.

Vilardi was bad in week one so he's allowed to come up approximately...never.

Demoted and literally scored in minutes after two weeks off lmao, this clown show organization...

 

[kilowatt]

Vilardi was bad in week one so he's allowed to come up approximately...never.

Demoted and literally scored in minutes after two weeks off lmao, this clown show organization...

No no no RJ. You're wrong here. He had one goal on five shots and was a +1 in a 4-2 loss. Why didn't he score three more goals? Why didn't he get an assist on the other goal (instead of just being on the ice for it)? If you think that amounts to "earning ice time" then I don't know what to say.

 

[lumbergh]

Nothing you laid out above actually addresses the question I asked of how closely expected goals lines up with actual goals scored over the course of the season. The truth is that there is an almost 1 to 1 correlation between xGF and the actual amount of goals scored over the course of the entire season:

View attachment 483014
(Data above from Jack Fraser aka jfresh)

Generally, the public models have actually underestimated by a slight margin, except for this season so far where the public models (other than NST) are slightly overestimating actual goals. No one statistic is the end-all be-all for describing the game, but if it were a complete “crap” number like you say, wouldn’t it be pretty terrible at forecasting actual goal scoring over the course of a season?

I guess you answered your own question, so I'm not sure why you asked me. Over thousands of games, these models are off by 0-12%. I think I can give you a pretty good estimate within 5% of the number of goals scored in the league by season just by taking a look at the number of goals scored in the league in previous seasons. It doesn't take any sophisticated models.

My argument is that xGF% is not a good advanced stat as it relates to figuring out who is good and who is not good. It is a weak predictor of which team will outscore the other team. If what I argued is the case (and the data support my argument), then it's not really very useful to try to compare any two players, any two lines, or any two teams over a period, a game, or 18 games.

 

[AbsentMojo]

I wonder how Tkachev is feeling being sent to AHL on a 2 way contract making just 80k now

 

[Bandit]

I’ve got the only advanced stat you need:

0-1 vs. Arizona.

This team needs an enema.

 

[KINGS17]

They would do me like that. I'm trying to live that good life and call in an executive decision for the good of the navy, and the world. And they'd nuke me. Typical.

Captain USS Alabama: "Yes sir, drop that f'er, twice."

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Vilardi was bad in week one so he's allowed to come up approximately...never.

Demoted and literally scored in minutes after two weeks off lmao, this clown show organization...

Demoted, and then this 'clown show organization' wins 7 in a row without him. Do you post just to keep your average at 15 posts a day? Take a break from the keyboard, geezus.

 

[cyclones22]

Well to be fair when he first came up the Kings went on a seven game winning streak.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Well to be fair when he first came up the Kings went on a seven game winning streak.

I'm not knocking Gabe, I want to see him up and producing with the big boys as much as everyone else. With that said, none of us can deny that he was NOT good to start this season (which was very surprising given how he looked in the preseason), so what's wrong with sending him down to the Reign in an effort to get his confidence back? That's a 'clown show' of an organization tactic? Stupid...

 

[Lt Dan]

I’ve got the only advanced stat you need:

0-1 vs. Arizona.

This team needs an enema.

And some hookers and blow!!!

 

[Jason Squirties]

And some hookers and blow!!!

Wings & Beers

 

[King'sPawn]

I'm not knocking Gabe, I want to see him up and producing with the big boys as much as everyone else. With that said, none of us can deny that he was NOT good to start this season (which was very surprising given how he looked in the preseason), so what's wrong with sending him down to the Reign in an effort to get his confidence back? That's a 'clown show' of an organization tactic? Stupid...

The issue is it's been discussed for some time that he would be better at wing. Not only was he kept at center, but put in a checking role with a mishmash of players.

With the vets the Kings do have, they could easily put at least one dependable vet to give the youth a better chance to grow and develop. Insulate.

But instead it's "overload up front, try to win with our aging core, and demote/punish the youth playing out of their element." Opposing teams can match lines, especially when the Kings are on the road, and manhandle rookies who don't have the proper support.

 

[bland]

The issue is it's been discussed for some time that he would be better at wing. Not only was he kept at center, but put in a checking role with a mishmash of players.

With the vets the Kings do have, they could easily put at least one dependable vet to give the youth a better chance to grow and develop. Insulate.

But instead it's "overload up front, try to win with our aging core, and demote/punish the youth playing out of their element." Opposing teams can match lines, especially when the Kings are on the road, and manhandle rookies who don't have the proper support.

Arvidsson was the perfect opportunity to give Vilardi the type of winger who can stretch defenses, open lanes and provide the same kind of attacking intent that Vilardi needs to find his legs at the NHL level.

If the goal is to get better by having the high picks with talent break in and replace the mid level vets with modest ability, one would think that you need to put them into position to succeed in their role so they improve more quickly and leave room for the next wave of kids to come in.

That isn't happening here. They are still stuck in the ridiculous win now mode where the vets who need to move on to the next stage of their careers dictate the decision making because they want to stay relevant.

So, by putting kids into positions to struggle that are NOT to their strengths, they are delaying the progress and are forcing what is going to be the next wave to all be ready at the same time where there are 7 candidates for 2 jobs and the rest will most likely be dealt for more proven players to augment the whiney vets.

Its stagnation at best, completely counterproductive and a total waste of the pain and suffering that led to the high picks.

There must be a change of plans here to get past this plateau, and if it means healthy scratching Brown, pissing off Doughty and Quick, tough shit.

They could win 20 in a row and it wouldn't change a damn thing. Its a far worse situation than most seem to understand.

 

[tny760]

The issue is it's been discussed for some time that he would be better at wing. Not only was he kept at center, but put in a checking role with a mishmash of players.

With the vets the Kings do have, they could easily put at least one dependable vet to give the youth a better chance to grow and develop. Insulate.

But instead it's "overload up front, try to win with our aging core, and demote/punish the youth playing out of their element." Opposing teams can match lines, especially when the Kings are on the road, and manhandle rookies who don't have the proper support.

pretty much what they did with iafallo right? maybe my memory's betraying me but i don't feel like i remember him spending much time in the bottom 6, he went right up to kopitar's wing and now he's flourishing.. maybe that's more of a comment on iafallo himself but i feel like he was brought up, expectations weren't insane, and he learned the right way while being protected a bit

 

[King'sPawn]

pretty much what they did with iafallo right? maybe my memory's betraying me but i don't feel like i remember him spending much time in the bottom 6, he went right up to kopitar's wing and now he's flourishing.. maybe that's more of a comment on iafallo himself but i feel like he was brought up, expectations weren't insane, and he learned the right way while being protected a bit

Exactly. He was a puck hound. He outplayed all the forwards and was essentially on Kopitar's hip from day one. Now granted, he started older than most rookies (though not as old as Tkachev, who was sent down after 4 games), but he had a strength. They found a good fit, and he's steadily improved (despite the "demotion") ever since.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Demoted, and then this 'clown show organization' wins 7 in a row without him. Do you post just to keep your average at 15 posts a day? Take a break from the keyboard, geezus.

And now they're on a 4 game losing streak including that to AZ.

Do you see why that's the dumbest metric to evaluate a prospect's success?

I know one other poster 'took a break' when called out on 'just win baby' when it turned out we weren't going to win every game. Maybe there's more nuance here than that. But the above posters who are 'better fans' than me have said it better.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Exactly. He was a puck hound. He outplayed all the forwards and was essentially on Kopitar's hip from day one. Now granted, he started older than most rookies (though not as old as Tkachev, who was sent down after 4 games), but he had a strength. They found a good fit, and he's steadily improved (despite the "demotion") ever since.

Literally all I'm asking for is a continuation of this, but with respect for the idea that not every player is Iafallo/Danault.

Now if Blake came out and said the vision is for EVERYONE on the roster to be like this? Sure I get it and start trading Kaliyev, Vilardi, etc.

 

[HookKing]

I wonder how Tkachev is feeling being sent to AHL on a 2 way contract making just 80k now

I hope he's feeling I better work my ass off and up my game.

 

[kingsfan28]

I wonder how Tkachev is feeling being sent to AHL on a 2 way contract making just 80k now

Well , he did score his first goal there since being sent down like 3 weeks ago, so probably flying high.

 

[kingsfan28]

Absolute fiction.

Dustin Brown does not currently nor has he ever been a quality net front presence. Its always been one of the weakest parts of his game. He stands to the side of the net and limply waves his stick at pucks, he rarely positions himself for screens or deflections. He simply waits for rebounds to fall on to his stick or to be fed for easy tap-ins.



There are a lot of things Brown has done well over his career, but that ain't one of them.

You're splitting hairs dude. Whether he stands directly in front or a foot to the left/right to deflect the puck in, he still has done it. The guy has 318 goals, I bet there at least 50 or more pp goals have been scored that way.

So who is this in front, screening the goalie? Must be someone else wearing 23.