2021-2022 S Blues Multi-Purpose Thread Part 3

[STL fan in MN]

Honestly I think we were so god awful before Leddy that any improvement looked bigger than it was.

It’s a two fold thing. I don’t think Leddy is worth the money and term (especially the term.) I’m also not a fan of staying with the status quo (unless of course you’re where you want to be obviously)

Last year the Blues were not good enough and there’s some evidence that while the team was good, they were a bit fortunate. Hey that’s how you get a whopping 9 20 goal scorers. There’s some puck luck involved. Ville Husso also had a career year that I doubt he ever repeats and covered a lot of flaws.

Now we’re very likely to be worse with Perron gone and we essentially have the same cap hit so what’s the point of bringing back Leddy?

We KNOW this d core, as currently constructed, isn’t good enough (unless you disagree with that and then that’s a separate conversation)

So if it’s not good enough, why pay Leddy to come back and why on earth did he get that amount of term? To finish 3rd instead of 4th in the Central?

If your response is “well you can’t be Cup or bust every year”, the message was the window is now. If that’s true, then in how the hell have we not made upgrades? If that’s false, then why are we giving a 31 year old defenseman that didn’t make the difference a year ago a four year contract when we already have 4 LHD on one way contracts and one terrible one we currently haven’t been able to get through?

You cannot pay Leddy and Scandella what we’re paying them and expect good results.

What were they supposed to do instead? They can’t just sign or trade for anyone they want and get the players to agree to salaries that all fit under the Cap. There are 32 teams all competing for the same resources.

 

[BlueMed]

I don’t think anyone was available to make it good enough. If that’s the case, then I go with internal options and don’t hamstring myself with a bad contract since it’s not going to be good enough anyways

I think that’s awfully optimistic but I’m admittedly not a fan of basically any of the d man we have on the left side so……

That literally makes no sense. You're saying we should just go back to our D core prior to Leddy but then earlier you said "Honestly I think we were so god awful before Leddy that any improvement looked bigger than it was." So which one is it? Anyone who watched Leddy on the Blues can clearly see he was an effective top 4 LHD. He was also an important part of the NYI defense.

And you have no way of predicting whether its going to be a good or bad contract. You don't have that knowledge or insight, and no one cares to listen to someone who pretends he does.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

What were they supposed to do instead? They can’t just sign or trade for anyone they want and get the players to agree to salaries that all fit under the Cap. There are 32 teams all competing for the same resources.

That literally makes no sense. You're saying we should just go back to our D core prior to Leddy but then earlier you said "Honestly I think we were so god awful before Leddy that any improvement looked bigger than it was." So which one is it? Anyone who watched Leddy on the Blues can clearly see he was an effective top 4 LHD. He was also an important part of the NYI defense.

And you have no way of predicting whether its going to be a good or bad contract. You don't have that knowledge or insight, and no one cares to listen to someone who pretends he does.

I’ve already told you what I’ve done. I’d have not signed Leddy, played Perunovich (who wasn’t in the lineup for most of last year coincidentally) and saved ~3 mil in cap space over the next four years.

Do I KNOW it’ll be a bad contract for sure? Of course not. Are there analytics that can be considered? Yes and they don’t paint a particularly rosy picture. The likelihood of him being worth is contract is relatively low.

I’m not sure why this is considered such a controversial take. Maybe it’s just a disagreement in how close the Blues were last year, I’m not sure? Your eyes say something very different than the numbers. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

From my perspective and I watched every game, I never thought Leddy was great in the limited time he was here. I admit, the turnaround in the Wild series was surprising but I put it more on Binnington than I did Leddy.

Is he better than Scandella and Mikkola? Yes I would say so. Would I hate the signing of him less if we had moved Scandella? Yes.

But no, I’m honestly not convinced that

Krug-Faulk
Leddy-Parayko
Perunovich-Bortuzzo
Mikkola/Scandella

Is so much than

Krug-Faulk
Perunovich-Parayko
Mikkola-Bortuzzo
Scandella

That I’d commit four years to Nick Leddy AND give up on signing back David Perron

 

[BlueMed]

I’ve already told you what I’ve done. I’d have not signed Leddy, played Perunovich (who wasn’t in the lineup for most of last year coincidentally) and saved ~3 mil in cap space over the next four years.

Do I KNOW it’ll be a bad contract for sure? Of course not. Are there analytics that can be considered? Yes and they don’t paint a particularly rosy picture. The likelihood of him being worth is contract is relatively low.

I’m not sure why this is considered such a controversial take. Maybe it’s just a disagreement in how close the Blues were last year, I’m not sure? Your eyes say something very different than the numbers. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

From my perspective and I watched every game, I never thought Leddy was great in the limited time he was here. I admit, the turnaround in the Wild series was surprising but I put it more on Binnington than I did Leddy.

Is he better than Scandella and Mikkola? Yes I would say so. Would I hate the signing of him less if we had moved Scandella? Yes.

But no, I’m honestly not convinced that

Krug-Faulk
Leddy-Parayko
Perunovich-Bortuzzo
Mikkola/Scandella

Is so much than

Krug-Faulk
Perunovich-Parayko
Mikkola-Bortuzzo
Scandella

That I’d commit four years to Nick Leddy AND give up on signing back David Perron

That latter D core would get absolutely trashed on every game. There's a very solid chance that this team would miss the playoffs entirely if you replaced Nick Leddy with Scott Perunovich.

 

[Xerloris]

I’ve already told you what I’ve done. I’d have not signed Leddy, played Perunovich (who wasn’t in the lineup for most of last year coincidentally) and saved ~3 mil in cap space over the next four years.

Do I KNOW it’ll be a bad contract for sure? Of course not. Are there analytics that can be considered? Yes and they don’t paint a particularly rosy picture. The likelihood of him being worth is contract is relatively low.

I’m not sure why this is considered such a controversial take. Maybe it’s just a disagreement in how close the Blues were last year, I’m not sure? Your eyes say something very different than the numbers. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

From my perspective and I watched every game, I never thought Leddy was great in the limited time he was here. I admit, the turnaround in the Wild series was surprising but I put it more on Binnington than I did Leddy.

Is he better than Scandella and Mikkola? Yes I would say so. Would I hate the signing of him less if we had moved Scandella? Yes.

But no, I’m honestly not convinced that

Krug-Faulk
Leddy-Parayko
Perunovich-Bortuzzo
Mikkola/Scandella

Is so much than

Krug-Faulk
Perunovich-Parayko
Mikkola-Bortuzzo
Scandella

That I’d commit four years to Nick Leddy AND give up on signing back David Perron

Last I heard was Perron signed for more than we're paying Leddy.

Also you would seriously put Perunovich with Parayko? The guy that gets THE hardest defense assignments in possibly the entire NHL? Sure if you want us to tank.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

That latter D core would get absolutely trashed on every game. There's a very solid chance that this team would miss the playoffs entirely if you replaced Nick Leddy with Scott Perunovich.

That’s one hell of a statement and I’d argue bolder than anything I’ve said.

You think the Blues, as they are currently constructed, are one Nick Leddy injury away from missing the playoffs?

Last I heard was Perron signed for more than we're paying Leddy.

By 750k.

The Blues have 625k in space right now. You could have found 125k. Come on.

We paid Niko Mikkola 1.9 mil after already having 7 defenders on one way contracts. There was money there.

Also, it’s a separate conversation, but Parayko playing the hardest matchups is also something we should discuss not doing. That should be Faulk

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

That’s one hell of a statement and I’d argue bolder than anything I’ve said.

You think the Blues, as they are currently constructed, are one Nick Leddy injury away from missing the playoffs?


By 750k.

The Blues have 625k in space right now. You could have found 125k. Come on.

We paid Niko Mikkola 1.9 mil after already having 7 defenders on one way contracts. There was money there.

Also, it’s a separate conversation, but Parayko playing the hardest matchups is also something we should discuss not doing. That should be Faulk

We actually only have 625k in space bc that is 22 man roster. So already 1 short. You wanna play 2 short all season?

 

[Bluesnatic27]

That latter D core would get absolutely trashed on every game. There's a very solid chance that this team would miss the playoffs entirely if you replaced Nick Leddy with Scott Perunovich.

Holy hyperbole.

If the Blues really needed Nick Leddy to be a playoff team then there are more significant issues then we initially thought.

 

[PocketNines]

It’s a fair point but what would be your recommendation to the current cap crunch and having 8 NHL d-men?

I would not pay to move anyone. Perunovich waits in the AHL until there's an injury. It's not ideal but it's better than giving up a 3d (or more) to a team so that other team's PK can improve. Having an elite PK is a big deal, a much bigger deal than Perunovich's development or certainly the risk of losing Josh Leivo to waivers.

 

[Frobbo]

That latter D core would get absolutely trashed on every game. There's a very solid chance that this team would miss the playoffs entirely if you replaced Nick Leddy with Scott Perunovich.

Uh, overreact much?

 

[TK 421]

Does a D get moved before the season starts? Which one?

 

[BlueMed]

Holy hyperbole.

If the Blues really needed Nick Leddy to be a playoff team then there are more significant issues then we initially thought.

Uh, overreact much?

You're missing the point. It's not so much about needing Nick Leddy and moreso about Scott Perunovich not being ready to play a top 4 role yet because his 5 on 5 defensive abilities are so incredibly raw at this point. And that would be in addition to having Torey Krug in our top 4 (also not ideal defensively). Our defense would get lit up every night having both of those guys in our 2 top pairings.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

You're missing the point. It's not so much about needing Nick Leddy and moreso about Scott Perunovich not being ready to play a top 4 role yet because his 5 on 5 defensive abilities are so incredibly raw at this point. And that would be in addition to having Torey Krug in our top 4 (also not ideal defensively). Our defense would get lit up every night having both of those guys in our 2 top pairings.

Why would we have peru on 1 of top 2 pairings going into season? Even without Leddy still have Scandella or Miko, both of whom played a good bit in top 4 last year (albeit not particularly well).

 

[Brian39]

Why would we have peru on 1 of top 2 pairings going into season? Even without Leddy still have Scandella or Miko, both of whom played a good bit in top 4 last year (albeit not particularly well).

He was responding to the post by @Falco Lombardi that suggested Perunovich in the top 4 as a better solution than signing Leddy. We absolutely shouldn't rely on Perunovich in the top 4. That's exactly the point @BlueMed Is making.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

He was responding to the post by @Falco Lombardi that suggested Perunovich in the top 4 as a better solution than signing Leddy. We absolutely shouldn't rely on Perunovich in the top 4. That's exactly the point @BlueMed Is making.

To be clear, I wasn’t trying to disagree with @BlueMed, just pointing out the lunacy of the post he was responding to.

 

[542365]

New JR piece in the Athletic is just impossibly stupid. Are the Blues worse than last year? Of course they are. Their already horrific defense stayed the same and goaltending and forwards got substantially worse. There is a definite chance the Blues miss the playoffs this year without a major trade. Only team in the division that is clearly worse is Chicago. Minnesota and Colorado are clearly better. Then it’s a mess between Winnipeg, Nashville, and Dallas. Blues will probably get in because the Pacific is still terrible, but not much else.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

New JR piece in the Athletic is just impossibly stupid. Are the Blues worse than last year? Of course they are. Their already horrific defense stayed the same and goaltending and forwards got substantially worse. There is a definite chance the Blues miss the playoffs this year without a major trade. Only team in the division that is clearly worse is Chicago. Minnesota and Colorado are clearly better. Then it’s a mess between Winnipeg, Nashville, and Dallas. Blues will probably get in because the Pacific is still terrible, but not much else.

JR piece is stupid but we are clearly 2nd best team in division at this point. Luck and injuries could change that but whole bunch of stuff would have to go wrong for us to miss playoffs.

 

[Mike Liut]

New JR piece in the Athletic is just impossibly stupid. Are the Blues worse than last year? Of course they are. Their already horrific defense stayed the same and goaltending and forwards got substantially worse. There is a definite chance the Blues miss the playoffs this year without a major trade. Only team in the division that is clearly worse is Chicago. Minnesota and Colorado are clearly better. Then it’s a mess between Winnipeg, Nashville, and Dallas. Blues will probably get in because the Pacific is still terrible, but not much else.

We lost a 34 year old winger and have Leddy for an entire year. The team was much better after the acquisition of Leddy. So you think we are going from 109 points to possibly missing the playoffs?

 

[Mike Liut]

Do people realize when you lose a 27g scorer that there will be another player playing in that spot? You aren’t losing 27g, you are losing difference between between 27g and whatever the new player scorers. I guarantee Neighbors scores at least 15g.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

New JR piece in the Athletic is just impossibly stupid. Are the Blues worse than last year? Of course they are. Their already horrific defense stayed the same and goaltending and forwards got substantially worse. There is a definite chance the Blues miss the playoffs this year without a major trade. Only team in the division that is clearly worse is Chicago. Minnesota and Colorado are clearly better. Then it’s a mess between Winnipeg, Nashville, and Dallas. Blues will probably get in because the Pacific is still terrible, but not much else.

Avs have lost Kadri and Burakovsky with no replacement and downgraded from Kuemper to Georgiev.

Minnesota lost Fiala and Kaprizov is currently having issues coming home from Russia. Also have a giant cap issue with the Buyouts hitting them hard and not having any center depth

Winnipeg hasn't done really anything to get better and are having issues of their own.

Dallas lost Klingberg and still have a few RFAs to sign.

Nashville is the only team who has gotten better in the Central.

Arizona and Chicago are garbage.

Blues and Nashville are going to be gunning for #2 in the central. And with Colorado taking severe hits in their secondary scoring and their goaltending being suspect they will moat likely still be first but they will be worse next year.

 

[The Note]

For whatever you think about this Blues roster, the rest of the Central outside of COL is pretty underwhelming. Barring the goaltending imploding I’d be shocked if the Blues didn’t make the playoffs. I don’t think the ceiling is all that high on this team, but the floor should be making the playoffs.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Do people realize when you lose a 27g scorer that there will be another player playing in that spot? You aren’t losing 27g, you are losing difference between between 27g and whatever the new player scorers. I guarantee Neighbors scores at least 15g.

Not only that but other players are likely to get increased roles as a result as well. So guys like Saad, Kyrou etc will likely see more time on the PP in Perron’s absence. It would be reasonable to expect them to contribute a few more goals than they otherwise would because of those increased opportunities.

 

[STL fan in MN]

As for the article, it’s basically a nothing article. It doesn’t take a genius to see that Perron to Neighbors is a downgrade, Husso to Greiss is a downgrade, and Bozak to Acciari is an upgrade. Overall, they downgraded a bit on paper but the games aren’t played on paper. As almost always, a lot will come down to puck luck, health, etc. The Blues have downgraded a bit but because of the flat cap, so have a lot of other teams. Lots of teams having to make tough choices. The only team in the Central that I see that’s improved is Nashville. And I’d still put the Blues a bit ahead of them. So I’d still project the Blues to finish 2nd in the Central.

 

[Thallis]

I don't think there's much to be taken from the article, but seeing Barbashev-Schenn-Neighbours as our projected 3rd line scares the hell out of me.

 

[Robb_K]

Do people realize when you lose a 27g scorer that there will be another player playing in that spot? You aren’t losing 27g, you are losing difference between between 27g and whatever the new player scorers. I guarantee Neighbors scores at least 15g.

And Thomas and Kyrou will again improve exponentially, like they did last season. Plus Neighbours will add youth and speed, and goal-scoring ability that, should be at least 60-70% as productive as Perron was, assuming he will be out of the lineup significantly less than Perron was last season. And the improvements of The Blues' younger star players should help make up for the loss of Perron on The Power Play.