2020 Redraft - Top 5

[Regal]

I dont really have an issue with Stutzle or Sanderson above him, even if Raymond was better than Stutzle this year. The issue I have is guys saying Jarvis can jump 10 spots ahead of him as a winger because he had a good first round of the playoffs on a great team while Raymond still outscored him this season.

Saying Byfield should hold his spot ahead of him because he finally had a season he didnt look like a bust because he got moved to the wing. A guy who Raymond had more goals than this season than Byfield does in his career. If you want to call Byfield a point per game center down the road at this point, you can easily say Raymond projects as a 100 point, 40 goal winger...

Lafreniere having a decent season and good playoff run playing with Panarin (once again, as a winger), has ~30 less points and the same amount of goals as Raymond in 60 more career games. But he holds his spot as a winger because of a 14 game sample with a top 5 or 6 player in the game on his line. Raymonds offensive game with Panarin this season and he pretty easily outdoes what Lafreniere does, and I say that as a guy that like Lafreniere.

Honestly using the playoffs as justification for anything is pretty stupid right now. Jarvis has points in 5 games total this playoffs, 2 points in his 6 games in the second round. Youre talking guys with 230+ game sample sizes and saying Jarvis' game translates to the playoffs because of a good 5 games against the Islanders in the first round basically.

Raymond pretty easily has the best case for third overall in this draft class right now (maybe 2nd depending on opinion of Sanderson), but you want to say people having him 8th is normal, its not

Jarvis had 5 fewer points this season and is already a strong defensive player. It’s not just playoffs he was arguably the better player this season

 

[newfy]

Jarvis had 5 fewer points this season and is already a strong defensive player. It’s not just playoffs he was arguably the better player this season

Even if you want to say that he was arguably better (I disagree), he definitely wasnt arguably better enough to jump 10 spots ahead of a guy that outscored him this early. I actually really like Jarvis too, I'm not trying to shit on him. I would also be really curious to see what Raymonds defensive metrics would look like playing with guys like Slavin, Pesce, Skjei, Burns, Aho, Staal, Martinook, Terevainen etc etc. That whole team is stacked defensively up front and on the back end.

Raymond isnt a slouch defensively at all and I think he has a dynamic offensive side Jarvis doesnt. If their spots were reversed I dont think we would be talking about a huge difference in defensive play but I think Raymonds offense would shine more.

 

[CowbellConray]

I dont really have an issue with Stutzle or Sanderson above him, even if Raymond was better than Stutzle this year. The issue I have is guys saying Jarvis can jump 10 spots ahead of him as a winger because he had a good first round of the playoffs on a great team while Raymond still outscored him this season.

Saying Byfield should hold his spot ahead of him because he finally had a season he didnt look like a bust because he got moved to the wing. A guy who Raymond had more goals than this season than Byfield does in his career. If you want to call Byfield a point per game center down the road at this point, you can easily say Raymond projects as a 100 point, 40 goal winger...

Lafreniere having a decent season and good playoff run playing with Panarin (once again, as a winger), has ~30 less points and the same amount of goals as Raymond in 60 more career games. But he holds his spot as a winger because of a 14 game sample with a top 5 or 6 player in the game on his line. Raymonds offensive game with Panarin this season and he pretty easily outdoes what Lafreniere does, and I say that as a guy that like Lafreniere.

Honestly using the playoffs as justification for anything is pretty stupid right now. Jarvis has points in 5 games total this playoffs, 2 points in his 6 games in the second round. Youre talking guys with 230+ game sample sizes and saying Jarvis' game translates to the playoffs because of a good 5 games against the Islanders in the first round basically.

Raymond pretty easily has the best case for third overall in this draft class right now (maybe 2nd depending on opinion of Sanderson), but you want to say people having him 8th is normal, its not

We may simply have a different view of how to rate Raymond, which is fine. I have had three Detroit fans question my points, but no other fan bases, so it could also be that there is a bias either way in how these points are viewed.

1) Regarding Jarvis "jumping". I dont care where these guys were drafted. I look at this as if I were a GM picking a player to have for the next decade on my team, who am I taking. Jarvis being drafted several spots later does nothing for my view of these players right now.

2) "Using playoffs as a justification is pretty stupid right now... If a team's goal is a presidents trophy, then sure, it's stupid to look at playoff performance. But I want a player, who when the game gets more physcial, tighter, and more ES, shows up. And Jarvis DID have a great series against the Islanders. And he had two solid playoff campaigns the two years prior. That's valuable to me if I'm a GM looking at who to take to focus on the goal I care about, which is winning a cup. If we want a team full of Mitch Marners, then take Mitch Marner. But I want a team of Brayden Points. Marner gets 10-15 more points a season in the regular season, but Point is the guy you want in the playoffs because he is an impact player in the post season. And I know you will say Jarvis wasn't impactful in the second round. But he HAS been impactful in rounds of the playoffs, and that can't simply be washed away like it's nothing

3) I was clear in my last post, I focus on projectability to go along with production. Byfield has not be as productive, but if I'm a GM, I'm thinking he has shown three years of improvement, is 6'5, had 41 ES points with 16:29 of total ice time. Raymond had 56 ES points with 17:45 of total ice time. Raymond also shot 19% this year compared to Byfield who shot 12.3%. When you control their stats, Raymond had a marginally better year (in the way I judge a player) and isn't nearly as projectable when it comes to position capabilities or two way impact. I think Byfield has sky high potential and could shift to Center at some point. Raymond to me has PPG potential as a predominantly offensive winger. There is value in that, I just would rather have Byfield.

4) Laf - Laf only had 5 less ES points than Raymond this year. He didn't have nearly the impact on the PP, which I probably state is due to his PDO being 86.6, which is absolutely insanely low. Raymonds was 103.5. Again, absolutes state Raymond had the better year. More goals, more points But from my view, Laf's year was actually very strong, and he didnt have nearly the puck luck that Raymond did on the PP to bump his point totals up a bit higher. Now, when we look at Laf in the playoffs, the guy is PPG and is scoring highlight goals against the Panthers, who are the best chance suppression team in the league. He isn't doing it against the Lightning, whose defense was very poor this year. Point is, Laf is a guy who some may look at and say "wow, PPG in the playoffs plus strong ES metrics this year means this guy is a breakout candidate moving forward". And BTW, Laf outscored Raymond last year in ES points (35 to 26), which is substantially better than Raymond's ES gap to Laf this year (56 to 51). Laf just didnt have the additional two minutes a game last year that Raymond had when Raymond outscored him 45 to 39 in total.

I've stated this several times. If someone takes Raymond 3rd/4th/5th overall, I wouldn't call them stupid. Just like I wouldn't call someone stupid if they took Laf/Jarvis/Byfield in those spots ahead of Raymond. But when Detroit fans tell me it's stupid that anyone would have Raymond any lower than 3rd or 4th, when there are reasons as to why he could potentially be as low as 7th depending on fit and preference, it's incredibly annoying. They point to his overall aggregate stats, dont pay attention to usage metrics/PDO/deployment, and just say "he has scored more so he is better". Raymond had a bad year last year, being fed ice time. He didnt produce nearly as much as he should have. This year was a really good rebound year. But he feasts on the PP, and is very similar to Byfield/Jarvis/Laf at ES when you control for different factors. From the projectibility standpoint, I dont know that he progresses much further than where he is. I still think that's a really good player, but I also think Byfield and Laf have even more growth in their game.

 

[biturbo19]

I don’t see any argument for Raymond, a pure winger, being ahead of Sanderson or Stutzle. So that’s at best 3rd overall

The , you look at projectability, production, position. Let’s be clear, wingers are the least impactful postion on the ice. They take the easiest defensive assignments, don’t take face offs, and don’t get killed if their defensive game is lacking.

By field, while being a 50 point player this year, is a project able top line center with ppg game potential. That’s a HUGE team need. Go ahead and make the poll if you want, but I’d wager 85% of people would take byfield going forward rather than Raymond. So that moves him to 4th.

Then you have the cluster of wingers, who have all shown different things. Raymond has the regular season success, Jarvis has the two way game and postseason production, laf has the crazy playoffs he is on and his decent success this year. A team may go for any three of those guys. That puts Raymond somewhere between 4th and 6th.

Then, bring in Faber who had a great year, and you could MAYBE see someone wanting a strong two way D over a good winger

Again though...what exactly makes Byfield such a projectable "Top Line Center" going forward?

The fact that he finally didn't look enormously disappointing when he largely got stapled to Kopitar as a winger this year?


Nothing about Byfield screams "Center" or "Top Line" to me, at this point. Whereas Raymond is already there. He's already playing at a top line play-driving winger level. Looks like he's still got headroom too.


It's possible that Byfield just takes a while and eventually gets there. If he does become a quality "top line Center" he'd obviously slide way up the list. But where we're at right now...i'm not seeing a very compelling argument for that being where the arrow is generally point in terms of trajectory at the moment.

That's where a couple more years would really be a more appropriate time to evaluate this "redraft". But doesn't mean we can't prognosticate in the meantime i guess.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Just seems like a bunch of double-standards tbh. Raymond's 44 points the last 45 certainly outweighs Lafreniere's 35 in 47 (production since Jan 1). Raymond also produced more at ES so the PP time argument isn't hugely valuable.

All some of us are saying is that it's a bit strange that the guy who had the best season is losing the most ground in this re-draft.

Did you count Laf's playoffs? Because I'm pretty sure he didn't play only 47 games since Jan 1st including the playoffs

 

[Shark Finn]

Pro-tip for getting a reaction from a Red Wings fan: leave Raymond out of your list.

 

[Osakahaus]

1. Stutzle
2. Laffy
3. Byfield
4. Jarvis
5. Lundell

 

[ORRFForever]

1. Stutzle
2. Laffy
3. Johnston
4. Jarvis
5. Lundell

Isn't Wyatt Johnston 2021?

When it is all said and done, 10 years from now, LAF will be the best player from the draft.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Laf

Everyone else (trash)

 

[Pavels Dog]

Did you count Laf's playoffs? Because I'm pretty sure he didn't play only 47 games since Jan 1st including the playoffs

No, but it still doesn’t get his PPG quite to Raymond’s, and if you’re including playoffs his career numbers aren’t really helped (9 in 27 prior to this run). If he goes pointless in a 1st round exit next season do we include playoffs in his season totals or not?

Not sure though why so many are taking offense to discussion being had on this topic. If you don’t want to debate the redraft just ignore the thread or drop your list and bounce. Pushback is pretty natural when the draft’s best player of the season is ranked like a disappointment.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

No, but it still doesn’t get his PPG quite to Raymond’s, and if you’re including playoffs his career numbers aren’t really helped (9 in 27 prior to this run). If he goes pointless in a 1st round exit next season do we include playoffs in his season totals or not?

Not sure though why so many are taking offense to discussion being had on this topic. If you don’t want to debate the redraft just ignore the thread or drop your list and bounce. Pushback is pretty natural when the draft’s best player of the season is ranked like a disappointment.

I mean, he wasn't that good prior to this year. But this year is the latest year in a 22 year old's career when he clearly developed. It's not a 30 year old that just had his first great playoffs. And if he goes pointless next season I'm sure that would be taken into account, yes. Panarin and Zibanejad are getting killed for their underwhelming playoffs so if he sucks next year I'm sure he'll get criticized.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

1. Stutzle
2. Laffy
3. Byfield
4. Jarvis
5. Lundell

This would be mine as well, I love Mercer as a Devils fan but what a horrid season for him in 23-24. He needs to get back to his 22-23 ways to get back into the convo.

 

[Dead Coyote]

For my own sanity I'm not reading any more of this garbage thread but

1. Stutzle (Clear #1C, already pushing elite)
2. Laf (One of the best ES and defensive wingers, pushing #1W)
3. Jarvis (Same as above but doesn't have the same pedigree)
4. Raymond (Same as above)
5. Sanderson (slightly higher than Faber because of heavier load and arguably worse structure)
6. Faber
7. Byfield (Sorry Byfield lovers I never liked him much in the draft season and while he's gotten eons better I just think the players above him are currently above him, but could easily swap to 2 next year)

 

[Wondercarrot]

I come away feeling the opposite. The guy struggles defending to me and does not make up for it with elite offense.

Of all the things that are most wrong here, struggling to defend is the most preposterously wrong.

 

[CowbellConray]

No, but it still doesn’t get his PPG quite to Raymond’s, and if you’re including playoffs his career numbers aren’t really helped (9 in 27 prior to this run). If he goes pointless in a 1st round exit next season do we include playoffs in his season totals or not?

Not sure though why so many are taking offense to discussion being had on this topic. If you don’t want to debate the redraft just ignore the thread or drop your list and bounce. Pushback is pretty natural when the draft’s best player of the season is ranked like a disappointment.

My personal pushback to this is a good GM doesn't set his list based on just this season's point totals. They look at position, projection, and success across multiple facets. Raymond is the best PP player out of the draft. That's a clear statement right now. He is not the best ES forward out of the draft. Raymond also had an incredibly unsustainable 19% shooting percentage this year. I'd bet he doesnt hit that number again for a full season in his career.

There are other players in this draft that have the position importance or projectability to be put above Raymond

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Not sure why wings fans seem to take it personally if their guy falls one spot.

Because they have sucked for so long now. Its like not making a different playoff...lol.

 

[Pavels Dog]

My personal pushback to this is a good GM doesn't set his list based on just this season's point totals. They look at position, projection, and success across multiple facets. Raymond is the best PP player out of the draft. That's a clear statement right now. He is not the best ES forward out of the draft. Raymond also had an incredibly unsustainable 19% shooting percentage this year. I'd bet he doesnt hit that number again for a full season in his career.

There are other players in this draft that have the position importance or projectability to be put above Raymond

Well. He did have the best ES production out of anyone this season. Both raw totals and p/60 (excluding Quinn/Chinakhov who didn't play full seasons).
Since entering the league he's 2nd in raw ES totals and 0.01 P/60 behind Laf/Byfield.

Sustainability of shooting % is a valid question for sure but I think you're exaggerating how extreme that 19% number is (it wasn't top 10 highest this season), as well as assuming regression in that area won't be countered by increases in icetime, PP opportunites and shot rate.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

My revised draft order.

Lumped Raymond/Jarvis/Lafreniere together because they represent similar value IMO.

Man 2020 was such a staked draft.

1. Stutzle
2. Sanderson
3. Faber
4. Byfield
5. Raymond/Jarvis/Lafreniere
6. Lundell
7. Mercer
8. Neighbours
9. JJ Peterka
10. Rossi
11. Zary
12. Quinn
13. Ghule
14. Perfetti
15. B. Schneider

 

[LakeLivin]

Not really relevant since the guys he's being debated against aren't mainly Stützle here.
But since you brought it up; Raymond also outscored Stu by 13 goals, 18 primary points, a decent margin in 5v5 p/60 and total Even strength points, despite playing over 3 minutes less per game.

2nd most goals this season and 3rd most since the draft. If he's just a playmaking winger what does it say about the goalscorers of this draft?

Ehhh the Hurricanes/Isles series was hardly a shining example of playoff intensity. Against the Rangers, Jarvis had just 2 points in 6 games. So not sure how highly I'd value his playoffs as a testament to his abilities above what Raymond did in must-win games down the stretch.

The bigger picture here is that you're making a positive spin on everyone else, while highlighting any doubts that might exist about Raymond.

Just curious, are you aware that Jarvis played the Rangers series with a broken finger he sustained against the Islanders? And most of the season with a torn labrum/ rotator cuff? I'm not arguing one way or another where he belongs, just found it interesting that you quote his Rangers series production as a negative without acknowledging something that probably influenced that production.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I wouldn’t say Raymond made bigger strides. He for sure improved but he had already established himself as an NHL top 6 talent whereas Byfield hadn’t.

And I don’t think it’s that crazy to have him lower despite leading in scoring. He outscored Stutzle by 2 points in 7 more games and Stutzle had by far the better top end season the year before. Jarvis had 5 fewer points while being a very strong two-way player. Lafreniere has been roughly point per game for half a season without much PP time and is finally figuring out why he went 1st overall. And Faber and Sanderson are all situation defensemen.

Raymond is a very good player and could easily go over a number of these guys, but I don’t think it’s absurd to be behind them either.

No disrespect to Byfield, who I'd kill to have, but Raymond had one of the more notable progression years I can recall period.

Like, he started the season looking better simply because he had gained a ton of weight and gotten stronger, got progressively better as the season went on, and then in March when Larkin got injured and the rest of the team decided they wanted to go golfing early, he went into "Fine I'll do it myself" mode and went off.

He essentially finished last year as a good Top 6 winger, started this season as a high end top 6 winger who was stronger on the puck, and finished this year showing that he was top line winger who could drive a line and take over the game when he wanted to.

 

[newsportsfan123]

I swear people say players are good defensively because they play a physical game. Laf was mid defensively this season. Also, to the guy saying Raymond would be putting the same defensive stats as Jarvis is delusional. Defensive analytics most of the time are isolated so it doesn’t take into account teammates. In Deangelo’s first stint with Carolina his defensive metrics playing with Slavin were still atrocious. Hamilton was bad his first year and was Norris level his second year, third year he was slightly above average. Burns actually has had positive defensive stats and has had his best defensive seasons as a defenseman with the Hurricanes. Also, people in the canes system don’t have stunning defensive metrics. Aho is regarded as a two way player but his underlying analytics are very mid. Svechnikov and Necas are atrocious. Teravainen, Staal, Jarvis, Fast, Martinook, Drury are their best defensive forwards. Jarvis is elite defensively because he’s elite defensively it’s not the system.

 

[CowbellConray]

Well. He did have the best ES production out of anyone this season. Both raw totals and p/60 (excluding Quinn/Chinakhov who didn't play full seasons).
Since entering the league he's 2nd in raw ES totals and 0.01 P/60 behind Laf/Byfield.

Sustainability of shooting % is a valid question for sure but I think you're exaggerating how extreme that 19% number is (it wasn't top 10 highest this season), as well as assuming regression in that area won't be countered by increases in icetime, PP opportunites and shot rate.

I took the top 10 players in shooting % in 22-23 and here was their adjustment to 23-24:

Kuzmenko: 27.3 --> 18.2
Point: 21.7 --> 20.3
Buchnevich: 21.1 --> 13.0
Drai: 21.1 --> 18.9
Scheifele: 20.4 --> 16.2
Hintz: 20.1 --> 16.5
McCann: 19 --> 13.4
Killorn: 18.9 --> 12.4
Jarnkrok: 18.9 --> 10.9
Villardi: 18.9 --> 18.8

2023 avg: 20.7
2024 avg: 15.9

So we had overall a 25% decline in shooting % for the top 10. Raymond may drop by 5%, or he may drop by 40%. It will be super interesting to see where he lands. Every player in the top 10 did worse the next season.

The thing about his ice time, I dont know how much more he can get. He doesn't PK, and his ES TOI was only 30 seconds less than Larkin who led the Red Wings Forwards. Maybe, if the Red Wings move to a PP1 heavy approach, can Raymond get another minute of PP time a game. Otherwise, I dont see his ice time moving up too much. Red Wings were 3rd in the league in PP opportunities as well. I dont see that increasing into next year.

I think we are seeing a situation where Raymond had a great shooting %, a really good PP year, where his team had a ton of PPs, and did really well. I dont know how sustainable that is moving into next year.

 

[mm11]

Lafffy should be 1 2 3 4 and 5. He is that good

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Lafffy should be 1 2 3 4 and 5. He is that good

Who is he, KRS-One?

 

[Pavels Dog]

I took the top 10 players in shooting % in 22-23 and here was their adjustment to 23-24:

Kuzmenko: 27.3 --> 18.2
Point: 21.7 --> 20.3
Buchnevich: 21.1 --> 13.0
Drai: 21.1 --> 18.9
Scheifele: 20.4 --> 16.2
Hintz: 20.1 --> 16.5
McCann: 19 --> 13.4
Killorn: 18.9 --> 12.4
Jarnkrok: 18.9 --> 10.9
Villardi: 18.9 --> 18.8

2023 avg: 20.7
2024 avg: 15.9

So we had overall a 25% decline in shooting % for the top 10. Raymond may drop by 5%, or he may drop by 40%. It will be super interesting to see where he lands. Every player in the top 10 did worse the next season.

Like I said, regression is likely but even that list shows that it doesn't need to be an extreme drop (Point, Drai, Hintz and Vilardi all held well).

The thing about his ice time, I dont know how much more he can get. He doesn't PK, and his ES TOI was only 30 seconds less than Larkin who led the Red Wings Forwards. Maybe, if the Red Wings move to a PP1 heavy approach, can Raymond get another minute of PP time a game. Otherwise, I dont see his ice time moving up too much. Red Wings were 3rd in the league in PP opportunities as well. I dont see that increasing into next year.

I think we are seeing a situation where Raymond had a great shooting %, a really good PP year, where his team had a ton of PPs, and did really well. I dont know how sustainable that is moving into next year.

I mean there's already precedent for him playing more. The last ~20 games he was at nearly 19 minutes per game. The 60 games before that he was at just above 17 minutes.

PP1 minutes, regular top line minutes, and simply being tossed extra shifts, heavy OT useage etc. does the trick.