2020 Redraft - Top 5

[PAZ]

Stutzle
Sanderson
Faber
Byfield
Raymond/Lafreniere

Higher value on top pairing D and C over Wingers. (Yes I know Byfield has been playing wing, but I expect he'll eventually develop into a C)

 

[byrath]

Impressive draft. No superstars but every player in the top 26 has found a solid NHL role, outside the 3 Russians.
I don't really know a lot of them well enough to make an educated top 5, but I don't think I'd go horribly wrong by just picking the actual top 5.

 

[ESH]

Why is Sanderson considered way better then Guhle by most? Not saying I disagree just want to understand why

Plays more minutes, puts up more points. Relied on as his team’s #1 shutdown option.

I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t have Sanderson ahead of Guhle

 

[dahrougem2]

Idk how people seriously have Jake Sanderson #1. He isn't putting up great numbers offensively and he's not some stalwart defensively.

 

[Dotter]

#1 Tim Stutzle 285-gp 91-goals 156-assists 247-points
#2 Lucas Raymond 238-gp 71-goals 103-assists 174-points
#3 Alexis Lafreniere 298-gp 75-goals 73-assists 148-points
#4 Seth Jarvis 231-gp 64-goals 82-assists 146-points
#5 Dawson Mercer 246-gp 64-goals 67-assists 131-points
HM Anton Lundell 216-gp 43-goals 69-assists 112-points

 

[Maurice of Orange]

1. Stutzle
2. Raymond
3. Faber
4. Jarvis
5. Lundell

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Idk how people seriously have Jake Sanderson #1. He isn't putting up great numbers offensively and he's not some stalwart defensively.

Watching him play, I’m always astounded how good he is. Amazing young player.

 

[dahrougem2]

Watching him play, I’m always astounded how good he is. Amazing young player.

I come away feeling the opposite. The guy struggles defending to me and does not make up for it with elite offense.

 

[ORRFForever]

Why is Sanderson considered way better then Guhle by most? Not saying I disagree just want to understand why

Most posters have not seen all of these players play - or, if so, rarely. ALL posters have a bias for their picks - usually NHL team or country. Take everything with a grain of salt and know, 10 years from now, when the careers are coming to and end, the list will look much different.

 

[biturbo19]

It's still really on the early side for this, as we can see even this year, guys are very much still emerging and finding their legs in the NHL to stabilize that "projection". There's even still room for other guys to come out of nowhere to join this list.

But just for kicks...right now i'd probably go something like:

1.Stutzle.
2.Sanderson.
3.Raymond.
4.Guhle.
5.Faber.

After that, it's a real toss-up for me. Jarvis, Mercer, Lafreniere there in some order. Schneider and Lundell might even get a look to round out my Top-10. And if i felt better about Drysdale's health/durability, he'd probably also get a look.

Push come to shove...big scoring Centers and Big solid defencemen who can handle tough minutes are just next to impossible to find anywhere but the draft. So i put a real premium on it. Especially in the case of a hypothetical "redraft" with the benefit of hindsight narrowing those outcomes that tend to be a lot more volatile and "risky" with many of those types of players. Once you see them establishing a very solid NHL baseline like those guys...with plenty of remaining upside to tap into.

Raymond is really the only one that doesn't fit that category, but he's well on his way to becoming a true line-driving winger. There's a point at which a smallish winger's dynamic offensive upside starts to transcend that value differential.

Lafreniere is a bit of a wildcard in this, with how he's playing in these playoffs, on top of an already pretty huge "breakout season". He was drafted #1 for a reason...and if this new trajectory continues...he could very easily force his way into the Top-5 with his skillset as a heavy, goal-scoring winger like that.



But that's the reality of where it's probably still too early to do this in earnest. Just too many guys whose trajectories are still completely in flux, tiny sample sizes, or even completely unknown. Laffy's turnaround, Faber's arrival, etc. all illustrate just how quickly someone can still rise or fall from this draft class. 5 years out is a much better barometer to set. By that point...you have a pretty good idea of what you've really got in the class.

 

[Go Wings]

People lowering Raymond is comical at best.
Take a look at this season Raymond outscored everyone in his draft class which includes Stutzle, Byfield, Laf and Jarvis.

Yes he's not a center so he may not be as valuable long term. But this season he out performed them all.

I forgot Faber and Jarvis I like you're top 5 better


What players is he better than in my list?

This season literally every player.

 

[Regal]

People lowering Raymond is comical at best.
Take a look at this season Raymond outscored everyone in his draft class which includes Stutzle, Byfield, Laf and Jarvis.

Yes he's not a center so he may not be as valuable long term. But this season he out performed them all.


This season literally every player.

Redrafts aren’t for this season though

 

[Regal]

Raymond made even bigger strides. Just crazy to me that people are ranking this year’s top scorer from the draft as low as 7th.

I wouldn’t say Raymond made bigger strides. He for sure improved but he had already established himself as an NHL top 6 talent whereas Byfield hadn’t.

And I don’t think it’s that crazy to have him lower despite leading in scoring. He outscored Stutzle by 2 points in 7 more games and Stutzle had by far the better top end season the year before. Jarvis had 5 fewer points while being a very strong two-way player. Lafreniere has been roughly point per game for half a season without much PP time and is finally figuring out why he went 1st overall. And Faber and Sanderson are all situation defensemen.

Raymond is a very good player and could easily go over a number of these guys, but I don’t think it’s absurd to be behind them either.

 

[dumbdick]

People lowering Raymond is comical at best.
Take a look at this season Raymond outscored everyone in his draft class which includes Stutzle, Byfield, Laf and Jarvis.

Yes he's not a center so he may not be as valuable long term. But this season he out performed them all.


This season literally every player.

But Stu's season last year was 18 points higher in 4 fewer games.

And this year raymond outscored him by two points while playing 7 more games.

 

[Dionysus]

1 Stutzle
2 Byfield
3 Sanderson
4 Faber
5 Lafreniere

Lots of great players in this draft, any way you rank it.

 

[Satanphonehome]

Why has no one mentioned JJ Peterka?

3rd in the class in goals this year, 6th in points.

Byfield in nearly everyone’s top 5 after
20/35/55 this year
28/60/88 for 179 career games

Peterka is
28/22/50 this year
40/42/82 in 161

He’s probably not in the top 5, but he’s certainly flirting with it.

 

[thrillhous]

Why has no one mentioned JJ Peterka?

3rd in the class in goals this year, 6th in points.

Byfield in nearly everyone’s top 5 after
20/35/55 this year
28/60/88 for 179 career games

Peterka is
28/22/50 this year
40/42/82 in 161

He’s probably not in the top 5, but he’s certainly flirting with it.

Great job reading all of the posts in this thread before making a grand (false) statement.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Long term center plan if I am building a team

You mentioned Byfield, so I gave my opinion on that individual.

Regarding Jarvis, he looked great in the playoffs, and is a similar player to Raymond, but on a better team. I consider them to be very similar players. However, Jarvis has shown to be a good player in the playoffs, so maybe some people may be favorable to him

I’m not a fan of Laf, but he had a good even strength year. He also scored 28 goals shooting 12.8%, while Raymond shot 19% this year, which is incredibly unsustainable. Lafs playoff this year has been very strong, and again, that’s something Raymond can’t compare to. Again, I’m not a fan, but I get the argument.

Raymond is a winger who is relatively one dimensional and while he had a great year, hasn’t set the league on fire to the point where he is a clear top pick in a redraft. Also, his year looks to be a bit of a luck year, shooting 19% is crazy

Another predictable point to hold against Raymond, while ignoring that Jarvis shot 18.8% in regular season and 20% in the playoffs. That double standard in evaluating players is really all I'm baffled by.

As for playoffs, yeah maybe Raymond hasn't gotten that chance, but he was by far Detroit's best player throughout their playoff push. Their last 7 games was basically a playoff series in terms of intensity and importance. Raymond had 6 goals and 11 points in those games.

I'll take a big C like Byfield any day over Raymond.

C*

 

[Matti_A]

Here's some stats for forwards from that year at 5v5.

 

[Pavels Dog]

View attachment 876534

Here's some stats for forwards from that year at 5v5.

P/60 this season (>60GP):

1. Raymond - 2.28
2. Stützle - 2.18
3. Peterka - 2.16
4. Jarvis - 2.10
5. Zary - 2.08
6. Byfield - 2.07
7. Lafreniere - 2.04
8. Holtz - 1.87
9. Perfetti - 1.81
10. Evangelista - 1.77

 

[CowbellConray]

Another predictable point to hold against Raymond, while ignoring that Jarvis shot 18.8% in regular season and 20% in the playoffs. That double standard in evaluating players is really all I'm baffled by.

As for playoffs, yeah maybe Raymond hasn't gotten that chance, but he was by far Detroit's best player throughout their playoff push. Their last 7 games was basically a playoff series in terms of intensity and importance. Raymond had 6 goals and 11 points in those games.


C*

what double standard? Where did I say Jarvis was shooting a sustainable % in my post?

I get it, you want Raymond to have a lower number on an arbitrary list by every poster here than Jarvis or Laf. I’m simply showing WHY someone may have these guys in a different order.

To the point about the playoffs, Raymond playing well leading up to the playoffs and the actual playoffs are two different things. Their last 7 games were not “playoff intensity”. Playoffs are “playoff intensity”. That’s a coping mechanism to try to diminish a clear fact. I’m baffled by someone trying to take a fact and turn it into an anecdote for sake of opinion.

Personally, I’d take Byfield or Stutzle above Raymond, Jarvis, Laf. All three are natural wingers with good offense and maybe top out at PPG wingers. That’s really good, but I like Sanderson and the centers more than a winger if I’m trying to redraft

 

[BondraTime]

I come away feeling the opposite. The guy struggles defending to me and does not make up for it with elite offense.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5364359/2024/03/26/nhl-defense-stars-ranking/

"Sanderson handles the toughest matchups on Ottawa’s blue line, according to PuckIQ, and is behind only Thomas Chabot in averaging 23:04 per game. He already leads them in short-handed ice time too, which is an impressive sign of defensive trust.

The rangy 21-year-old defender is crushing it in this difficult usage. Sanderson is driving a positive share of shots, scoring chances and expected goals at five-on-five. Ottawa has a plus-seven goal differential during Sanderson’s five-on-five shifts, compared to a minus-25 goal differential in all other five-on-five minutes.

Put another way: Ottawa performs like a bona fide playoff-caliber team when Sanderson’s on the ice, but is a hot mess whenever he’s off. Sanderson’s defensive metrics, in particular, are miles better than the rest of his team."

Saying he struggles defending tells me you don't watch him play, that's utterly, and quantifiably, absurd

Fine to not like him, you don't even need to put him on a top 5 list as it's opinion based, but saying he struggles defending is absolutly wild, he's a top ~5 defensive D in the league

Who are the NHL’s best shutdown defensemen and why are they so valuable?

There are plenty of elite shutdown defenders who never get a turn in the spotlight because of the focus on points.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Tanknation]

1.Stuzel
2.Raymond
3.Byfield
4.Lafreniere
5.Ghule

 

[LakeLivin]

For those unaware, Jarvis played most of the season with a torn labrum and rotator cuff. Then broke a finger against the Isles. This kid is gonna be special.

 

[Sting]

I come away feeling the opposite. The guy struggles defending to me and does not make up for it with elite offense.

I really question how many games you've seen him play. What you have posted could not be a more clear cut definition of the opposite way Jake Sanderson plays. I would classify him as elite defensively playing on a terrible team.