Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Entry Draft Thread

[tbrown33]

No, if they start at 9th it means two of the play-in teams get top 3 picks, and one of the bottom 7 gets a top 3 pick. We won't know if we're that 1 team until they start turning over cards. Same with a start at 8th, except that its 1 play in and 2 bottom 7. A start at 7 means no play in and 3 bottom 7.

Really the only thing we'll know based on the start:

If they start at 10: we pick 7th.
If they start at 9: we can't pick 4th or 5th, 1-3 and 6-7 still on the table.
If they start at 8: we can't pick 4th, 1-3 and 5-7 still on the table
If they start at 7: 1-7 all still possible.

if 3 play-in teams win the lottery, why even bother flipping the cards? might as well just flip us all off and tell us “see ya in January”

 

[kovacro]

No, if they start at 9th it means two of the play-in teams get top 3 picks, and one of the bottom 7 gets a top 3 pick. We won't know if we're that 1 team until they start turning over cards. Same with a start at 8th, except that its 1 play in and 2 bottom 7. A start at 7 means no play in and 3 bottom 7.

Really the only thing we'll know based on the start:

If they start at 10: we pick 7th.
If they start at 9: we can't pick 4th or 5th, 1-3 and 6-7 still on the table.
If they start at 8: we can't pick 4th, 1-3 and 5-7 still on the table
If they start at 7: 1-7 all still possible.

Thanks for the summary. Very helpful.

 

[redcard]

if 3 play-in teams win the lottery, why even bother flipping the cards? might as well just flip us all off and tell us “see ya in January”

Right, that's what McKenzie meant in the tweet Ziggy posted, there would be no point in a reveal.

 

[tbrown33]

Right, that's what McKenzie meant in the tweet Ziggy posted, there would be no point in a reveal.

yeah, i guess i’m just curious what the broadcast would actually be should it happen. do they actually go through the motions of flipping if it starts at 10?

 

[KopitarFAN]

As a few others have said, I don't think i'm gonna watch, the way they unveil it is always so cringeworthy, this year especially so. I'll just check twitter around 5:30

 

[TruKingFan]

What are the odds of 3 play-in teams getting the top 3 picks? Can't be very good either, right?

 

[Bandit]

I stuck up for you Jobu. If you no help me now...I say f*** you Jobu. I do it myself.

Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill...

 

[redcard]

What are the odds of 3 play-in teams getting the top 3 picks? Can't be very good either, right?

Equal to the odds of Buffalo picking 10th, so 1%

 

[The Lukeman]

No, if they start at 9th it means two of the play-in teams get top 3 picks, and one of the bottom 7 gets a top 3 pick. We won't know if we're that 1 team until they start turning over cards. Same with a start at 8th, except that its 1 play in and 2 bottom 7. A start at 7 means no play in and 3 bottom 7.

Really the only thing we'll know based on the start:

If they start at 10: we pick 7th.
If they start at 9: we can't pick 4th or 5th, 1-3 and 6-7 still on the table.
If they start at 8: we can't pick 4th, 1-3 and 5-7 still on the table
If they start at 7: 1-7 all still possible.

What are the odds of 3 play-in teams getting the top 3 picks? Can't be very good either, right?

I did some math here, there is a 1.84% all 3 play in teams win, 20.97% that 2 of them will win, 56.58% that 1 will win, and 20.6% only non playoff teams win the lottery. Thus making the odds we see:

Start at 10: 1.84% (Guaranteed we are 7)
Start at 9: 20.97% (Could be 1,2,3, 7 but Most Likely 6,)
Start at 8: 56.58% (Could be 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, but most likely 5)
Start at 7: 20.60% (Highest odds for us to land 1, 2, 3, can be 4, 5, unlikely 6, very unlikely 7)

 

[RocketKing]

If 3 play in teams get the top 3 picks Gary has better be unemployed.

 

[kovacro]

For those interested, Sportsnet’s Tim and Sid will have Quinton Byfield and Canadian Jr. hockey prospect guru Sam Cosentino on in the next hour.

 

[redcard]

I did some math here, there is a 1.84% all 3 play in teams win, 20.97% that 2 of them will win, 56.58% that 1 will win, and 20.6% only non playoff teams win the lottery. Thus making the odds we see:

Start at 10: 1.84% (Guaranteed we are 7)
Start at 9: 20.97% (Could be 1,2,3, 7 but Most Likely 6,)
Start at 8: 56.58% (Could be 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, but most likely 5)
Start at 7: 20.60% (Highest odds for us to land 1, 2, 3, can be 4, 5, unlikely 6, very unlikely 7)

I trust your math, not saying you're wrong, but it doesn't quite agree with 2020 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

The only scenario in which 3 play in teams win is also the only scenario in which Buffalo picks 10th, which they have at an even 1.0%.

I'm guessing you used the tankathon numbers in your calculation, so I'm wondering if the difference is due to the way tankathon calculates the odds of each team winning the 2nd or 3rd pick because the odds change depending on which team wins the preceding picks.

For example, if Detroit wins #1 our odds of winning #2 improve to 11.656% (All of Detroits balls become redraw balls, so we'll efectively have 9.5/81.5 of the remaining non-redraw balls).

But if team 15 wins #1 our odds of winning #2 only rise to 9.596%

So you'd have to recalculate every teams chances at #2 and #3 for each scenario you were assuming that a play-in team won the draw.

Again, not saying your wrong, not saying they're wrong, I could be wrong, just trying to solve for the difference cause f*** else am i going to do for the next 2.5 hours.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

What time do they start at? been busy all day

do we need a GDT or is this sufficient? I'm assuming this thread is enough

 

[redcard]

What time do they start at? been busy all day

do we need a GDT or is this sufficient? I'm assuming this thread is enough

A GDT would be setting us up for disappointment.

We're already prepared for disappointment.

 

[psych3man]

I'll still put on my cup at 5pm and get ready for the kick to the jimmy

LMAO at this
(I can definitely relate)

 

[Lt Dan]

Did anyone make any sacrifices to the hockey gods?

I would say my sex life, but it kinda has to exist in the first place

 

[Cook24]

When do we expect spoilers? Y’all spoiled the shitty pick we got last year ahead of time

 

[kovacro]

What time do they start at? been busy all day

do we need a GDT or is this sufficient? I'm assuming this thread is enough

8pm eastern start. 30 minute show and I believe I read a tweet somewhere that the 7 non-playoff clubs will have front line workers as part of the lottery show something akin to the NFL Draft where fans were shown by club during their teams selection.

 

[KINGS17]

 

[Steve Zissou]

Start at 10: 1.84% (Guaranteed we are 7)
Start at 9: 20.97% (Could be 1,2,3, 7 but Most Likely 6,)
Start at 8: 56.58% (Could be 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, but most likely 5)
Start at 7: 20.60% (Highest odds for us to land 1, 2, 3, can be 4, 5, unlikely 6, very unlikely 7)

So... who are we taking @ 7th OA then?

 

[Brodeur]

I bought a couple packs of these for me and my buddy. Neither of us had the heart to open it since the packaging was customized to the movie too.

 

[Crownroyal21]

Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill...

It’s not rum but I just had two shots of tequila. I will leave one full for Jobu until after the lottery. Anything that helps.

 

[johnjm22]

There's seems to be a lot of pessimism around here about our odds.

But I look at it like this: If there was no draft lottery we'd have ZERO chance at Lafreniere /Byfield.

I'd rather have a 1 in 10 chance at 1st OA with a high probability of picking 5th-7th, than have the 4th spot guaranteed with zero chance at 1st OA.

 

[Cook24]

There's seems to be a lot of pessimism around here about our odds.

But I look at it like this: If there was no draft lottery we'd have ZERO chance at Lafreniere /Byfield.

I'd rather have a 1 in 10 chance at 1st OA with a high probability of picking 5th-7th, than have the 4th spot guaranteed with zero chance at 1st OA.

You...I like you...

 

[Sleeping Dog]

Calling my shot:
1 LA
2 Det
3 Qualifying Round Team C

we can always dream.