NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART IV

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[TheDebater]

Not enough spots in the top 10 for everyone, there is a reason why a few star NHL players get drafted 15-30 in the 1st round; they are either "over-looked", or simply the draft has too many players who potentially could be drafted top 10.

 

[MatchesMalone]

In another thread they were talking about clutch prospects, so I decided to go back through recent international competition and see which 2020s had clutch performances.

At Hlinkas 2018, Raymond and Holtz had the first two goals of the gold medal game before Canada stormed back to win 6-2. Lafreniere had a goal and two assists.

At the U17 semifinal, Vasili Ponamaryov had a two goals and two assists in their win against Sweden. Holtz had a goal and assist in the losing effort; the goal came at an important time as Russia had just scored three quick to go up 4-1 and Holtz scored immediately after to stop the bleeding.

At the 2019 U18s, in one semifinal, against USA, Rodion Amirov opened the scoring shorthanded and then scores the shootout winner. In the other semifinal, with Canada leading 2-1 in the second, Holtz scored the next two goals to make it 3-2.

In the gold medal game Amirov had a goal and assist for Russia in a losing effort. Raymond scored the opening goal, the tying goal, and the overtime winner. Holtz had two assists.

In the 2019 Hlinka semifinal, Peretti had five breakaway/shootout goals, including the tying goal and multiple shootout goals. In the final Ponomaryov had a goal and assist in the win.

Holtz had the overtime winner against Finland at World Juniors. Just a preliminary game, but against their biggest rival to keep the streak alive. Lafreniere played something like 27 minutes in the gold medal game IIRC, and had two assists.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

In another thread they were talking about clutch prospects, so I decided to go back through recent international competition and see which 2020s scored clutch goals.

At Hlinkas 2018, Raymond and Holtz had the first two goals of the gold medal game before Canada stormed back to win 6-2. Lafreniere had a goal and two assists.

At the U17 semifinal, Vasili Ponamaryov had a two goals and two assists in their win against Sweden. Holtz had a goal and assist in the losing effort; the goal came at an important time as Russia had just scored three quick to go up 4-1 and Holtz scored immediately after to stop the bleeding.

At the 2019 U18s, in one semifinal, against USA, Rodion Amirov opened the scoring shorthanded and then scores the shootout winner. In the other semifinal, with Canada leading 2-1 in the second, Holtz scored the next two goals to make it 3-2.

In the gold medal game Amirov had a goal and assist for Russia in a losing effort. Raymond scored the opening goal, the tying goal, and the overtime winner. Holtz had two assists.

In the 2019 Hlinka semifinal, Peretti had five breakaway/shootout goals, including the tying goal and multiple shootout goals. In the final Ponomaryov had a goal and assist in the win.

Holtz had the overtime winner against Finland at World Juniors. Just a preliminary game, but against their biggest rival to keep the streak alive. Lafreniere played something like 27 minutes in the gold medal game IIRC, and had two assists.

It sounds like people are sleeping on Ponomaryov and Amirov. Those two don't get a ton of hype but they are very good players with elite upside.

 

[Sensators]

I dont think Jarvis is realistic without a top 10 pick this year. I was so hyped for him with the isles pick but it seems very farfetched now. He is FLYING up draft sheets (as he should).

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Not enough spots in the top 10 for everyone, there is a reason why a few star NHL players get drafted 15-30 in the 1st round; they are either "over-looked", or simply the draft has too many players who potentially could be drafted top 10.

Fair enough. I just posted that here so fans can keep an eye on Jarvis. He seems like a Sens kind of pick and he might even be available with the NYI pick.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I dont think Jarvis is realistic without a top 10 pick this year. I was so hyped for him with the isles pick but it seems very farfetched now. He is FLYING up draft sheets (as he should).

Yeah possibly. We will have to see how the season ends for a ton of the prospects but there could be an argument that Jarvis is better than some of the players currently ranked in the 5 to 10 spot. So if the Sens end up picking in that range maybe he will be higher on their list than some of the players with more hype behind them.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I think there is alot of Tkachuk in Lundell. Big body, late birthday lots of exposure so potentially over scouted, not as much offenisve production as his draft mates but likely a longer development curve due to body type.

Lundell is doing very well offensively or else he'd go first/second overall.

He has a .64 PPG in Liiga right now. The second highest PPG for U19 players is .31... and that's a player also projected to go in the late 1st round of this year's draft.

The only ones to do better than him in recent years are all wingers. Kakko, Pulji and such. Centers in Liiga have much harder role and harder to go up the lineup.

However, Lundell does have a late birthday so if we compare him to Kotkiniemi they both had .5 PPG but Lundell plays better all-around game and is more physical, imo.

 

[Bubba Pilks]

Fair enough. I just posted that here so fans can keep an eye on Jarvis. He seems like a Sens kind of pick and he might even be available with the NYI pick.

I feel like the only way we can grab him with the NYI pick is if they fall out of the playoffs. I have him at 12 right now on my sens draft wish list. His production since Jan 1st is ridiculous.

23GP 25G 31A 56P +30 2.83PPG

 

[MatchesMalone]

It sounds like people are sleeping on Ponomaryov and Amirov. Those two don't get a ton of hype but they are very good players with elite upside.

Yeah for sure. To me Amirov is up there somewhere in that group with Rossi, Lundell, Holtz and Perfetti.

Like for Amirov, weight and strength is an issue right now for Ponomaryov. Unlike Amirov, he also has some other issues, like defensive play and being too cute sometimes. Plenty of skill though.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Gunler in the top of the 2nd would be something. He is not as high on Drysdale. McKenzie had him 4th and said he was trending up

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Got bored and started thinking about how important this draft is and how crazy our prospect pool should be after it.

Assuming Ottawa is picking 4th and 5th cause that seems fairly likely.

Trade 22nd (NYI)+51st (CBJ)+Anisimov @ 50% retained for 16th (CAR via NYR) where Quinn is available.

Trade Tierney+34th (OTT)+56th (DAL) for Puljujärvi+Russell+20th (EDM)

- 4th overall (OTT) - C Marco Rossi
- 5th overall (SJS) - RD Jamie Drysdale
- 16th overall (CAR via NYR) - RW Jack Quinn
- 20th overall (OTT) - LD William Wallinder
- 53rd overall (NYI) - LW Luke Tuch

Hell of a draft if Dorion could pull it off.

Liked the idea and thought it was fairly possible so I did an ACGM of our Under 25 depth chart with these guys added, and I've got to tell you, it's pretty special.

Either way, I have a lot of faith in our scouting staff, and I'm really, really excited for the future.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I disagree 100%.

Stutzle has elite offensive potential and first line wing/centre potential .

Lundell to me does not.

Well agreed. But as of right now stutzle only has 7 more points in the same amount of games playing in a way easier league.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Well agreed. But as of right now stutzle only has 7 more points in the same amount of games playing in a way easier league.

Stutzle has .82 PPG

wanna know who is second among eligible draftees this year? Reichel at .59

Wanna know how old the next person is to have a higher PPG than Stutzle?

26 years old. Stutzle just turned 18 month and half ago.

For comparison sake, 6th overall Seider last year has .21 PPG (yes I’m aware he’s defender)

I have went back 15 years and no one has come close to Reichel let alone Stutzle.

Stutzle is absolutely KILLLING it relative to his peers. Same cannot be really said about Lundell, not even close really.

Stutzle’s accolades and trajectory indicate he’s destined for stardom in the NHL.

 

[ijif]

Here is an NHLe comparison of Stutzle and Lundell:

 

[GCK]

I dont dislike him I just like the other players more. A good friend of mine is the 67's goalie coach so I go to alot of games. He is a very polished player at this point, as a Jr he is very very good better than just about everyone in the top 10 right now outside of Lafreniere. I just dont know how high his upside is at the next level.

Perfetti has higher upside than Rossi. He is keeping pace with way less talent around him, in a harder conference and is not nearly as far along in his development. I think being a late birthday can impact how you view a player if they arent a late bloomer physically. Rossi isnt growing and likely isnt getting much stronger or faster at this point. Perfetti is still developing physically and if you compare both their 17 year old seasons its not close. Perfetti also makes more high end offensive plays on a consistent basis. Plays that will make NHL defenders miss.

It can work both ways though for a late birthday, Quinn for example is still growing you can see the actual physical evolution in his game as the year goes on. He is getting more explosive and his shot is getting harder. He was 5'9 at the start of last season and is creeping up on 6'1.

I would be very careful in that assessment, especially the points comparison. Rossi plays a complete game whereas Perfetti, like most draft eligible CHL players is not yet very well rounded. I point this out because I feel Rossi could probably add another 20% in the points column if he wasn’t as conscientious.

The good news is there is no questionable picks in the original list provided.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Stutzle has .82 PPG

wanna know who is second among eligible draftees this year? Reichel at .59

Wanna know how old the next person is to have a higher PPG than Stutzle?

26 years old. Stutzle just turned 18 month and half ago.

For comparison sake, 6th overall Seider last year has .21 PPG (yes I’m aware he’s defender)

I have went back 15 years and no one has come close to Reichel let alone Stutzle.

Stutzle is absolutely KILLLING it relative to his peers. Same cannot be really said about Lundell, not even close really.

Stutzle’s accolades and trajectory indicate he’s destined for stardom in the NHL.

Right and lundell would probably be close to that if he was in the German league. He has 25 in 39
You don’t think he would get, I don’t know, an extra 5 points in the German league? That would only be two less than stutzle.

 

[DJB]

Well agreed. But as of right now stutzle only has 7 more points in the same amount of games playing in a way easier league.

I mean that's valid, but for me personally I dont judge prospects based off stats.

If we did that Corey Locke would be a HOF

 

[MatchesMalone]

I would be very careful in that assessment, especially the points comparison. Rossi plays a complete game whereas Perfetti, like most draft eligible CHL players is not yet very well rounded. I point this out because I feel Rossi could probably add another 20% in the points column if he wasn’t as conscientious.

The good news is there is no questionable picks in the original list provided.

There's a flip side to this though. Because he's so good defensively, he spends less time in his own zone, creating more opportunity for offense.

On the previous point, about Rossi being further along in his development: there are a lot of factors to consider there. Perfetti is another one of those kids who was a bit of a prodigy from an early age. He's been playing against the best competition in the world at his age group every year since he was 12. WSIs, U17s, Hlinkas. Sure it's only a few games a year, but that level of competition shows a player what it takes to be and to beat the best.

Meanwhile Rossi played Swiss junior league and DI international competition. He did get 18 games in NLB when he was 16 though. And now they've both played two seasons of OHL.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I mean that's valid, but for me personally I dont judge prospects based off stats.

If we did that Corey Locke would be a HOF

Perhaps we are undervaluing lundells offensive ability.

 

[GCK]

There's a flip side to this though. Because he's so good defensively, he spends less time in his own zone, creating more opportunity for offense.

On the previous point, about Rossi being further along in his development: there are a lot of factors to consider there. Perfetti is another one of those kids who was a bit of a prodigy from an early age. He's been playing against the best competition in the world at his age group every year since he was 12. WSIs, U17s, Hlinkas. Sure it's only a few games a year, but that level of competition shows a player what it takes to be and to beat the best.

Meanwhile Rossi played Swiss junior league and DI international competition. He did get 18 games in NLB when he was 16 though. And now they've both played two seasons of OHL.

And I think they will both be excellent NHL centres.

 

[Bubba Pilks]

Not that I agree with his rankings but based on those, even as a worst case with the Sens and Sharks both going on runs and finish 6 and 7. Then losing the lottery all three times with both picks. We could walk away with:

8. Sens First - Jamie Drysdale RD
9. Sharks First - Lucas Raymond LW/RW
22. Islanders First - Dawson Mercer C
39. Sens 2nd - Tyson Foerster RW
50. Islanders 2nd - JJ Peterka LW
52. Columbus 2nd - Martin Chromiak RW
55. Dallas 2nd - Jaromir Pytlik C
70. Sens 3rd - Ryan O'Rourke LD
75. Winnipeg 3rd - Jack Finley C
102. Ottawa 4th - William Villeneuve RD

I can't wait for the draft.

 

[Olden]

Byfield overated imo

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I think Byfield is one that is going to need a unique path to achieve his potential. I'd love to see him go to Europe next season to play in a mens league (since he can't play in the AHL). He needs to hone his craft against bigger, stronger players, but in a league that is significantly lower than the NHL. I think tossing him into the NHL next year would severely hurt his development, while leaving him in junior will make it too easy for him to lean on his strength over his skills.