Prospect Info: 2020 Devils-Centric Mock Draft, Conference Finals Edition

[Forge]

That's not really true. If a clear potential of these guys who we drafted in the later rounds were more well known, they would've been drafted way earlier. We will never know who emerges as surprises until it actually is time. No one expected Bratt to be anything at all. I don't think anyone pegged him as someone with potentially 1st line potential when we drafted him.

Another example would be thompson. Literally no one thought he'd be anything more than just a body. 1 yr after this draft year, he looks more promising and maybe a 2nd liner? Who knows what his potential will be in the nhl.

TLDR, we have plenty of other prospects we picked in the later rounds who certainly have high potential but it's way too unpredictable if they truly have 1st line potential. If that was known they would be 1st or 2nd round picks.

I suppose it should be more realistic upside projection. There are always the lower level guys who certainly have that upside, just like in baseball but they are so far away, we simply do not know what the actual upside is, what the likelihood is that they reach it, or whether they are really even legit prospects. Most of those guys tend to be disregarded until they are closer. Gritsyuk maybe has that kind of upside for example, but we are simply too far away from him and his development to know what the reasonable expectation is.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I suppose it should be more realistic upside projection. There are always the lower level guys who certainly have that upside, just like in baseball but they are so far away, we simply do not know what the actual upside is, what the likelihood is that they reach it, or whether they are really even legit prospects. Most of those guys tend to be disregarded until they are closer. Gritsyuk maybe has that kind of upside for example, but we are simply too far away from him and his development to know what the reasonable expectation is.

Sure, but let me ask you this. What is the difference between a prospect where we can definitely say they have 1st line potential but we have no idea if they will actually reach it and a prospect who we don't know what their potential is and whether they will reach it. I think in the end, it's the same thing. Maybe a preference thing.

 

[Forge]

Sure, but let me ask you this. What is the difference between a prospect where we can definitely say they have 1st line potential but we have no idea if they will actually reach it and a prospect who we don't know what their potential is and whether they will reach it. I think in the end, it's the same thing. Maybe a preference thing.

I think you're right and it's definitely a preference and optics thing. This probably would deserve a longer discussion. Personally, I have a bit of a hard time inventorying the unknown, so a lot of it is based on the evaluated skillset not plateauing the further along in their development a player is. I think Gritsyuk has legit top 6 type talent...but that also has to continue to carry through to the KHL, where's he's likely to play very little the next year or two (I guess he's skipping the VHL altogether?), and then potentially the AHL as well. So that evaluation of him can change over time.

When I think of prospects, and where we are as a farm system, I'm admittedly biased and thinking about guys who are closer in their eta; guys who will be in the AHL this next season, or have been in the past. That's probably an unfair bias. They are much more of a known quantity.

It's a good question to ask. I'd probably need to organize my thoughts on the matter more thoroughly. I feel a little scatterbrained when thinking about it.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Sure, but let me ask you this. What is the difference between a prospect where we can definitely say they have 1st line potential but we have no idea if they will actually reach it and a prospect who we don't know what their potential is and whether they will reach it. I think in the end, it's the same thing. Maybe a preference thing.

Its kind of like an infant looking at a woman who closely resembles his mom when its really her identical twin sister

The baby knows something is up but cant quite put their finger on it (or maybe they do cause infants love being a personal face masseuse lmao).

Its called instinct and its what got us Bratt in the 6th! I do think our current scouting staff has far more of it than Lou’s crew

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

hey @StevenToddIves what do you think about Connor Zary? I didn't realize it, but Mark Recchi is a part owner of the Kamloops Blazers so you'd think he would have some insight into him

 

[StevenToddIves]

hey @StevenToddIves what do you think about Connor Zary? I didn't realize it, but Mark Recchi is a part owner of the Kamloops Blazers so you'd think he would have some insight into him

Connor Zary is, quite simply, all substance and no flash. One of the older draft eligibles from the WHL and certainly the most polished of the group, it's safe to say that he dominated the league for Kamloops. He's the type of player I like in that his two most prominent tools are his heart and his brain. This is an exceptionally mature and intelligent player, who is always positionally sound and terrific at anticipating the puck and the opposition. He supplements that with a tremendous compete level, and these qualities make him an absolute can't-miss NHL-er.

The question is, will his physical tools allow him the upside of being a top line player or a big-time scorer at the NHL level? I really like his hands and his passing, both of which are clearly benefitted by his intelligence and elite decision-making. His shooting is pretty good, but not great -- I like his wrist shot but not so much his slapper. The problem which drops Zary to potentially the #20-#30 range is the combination of "not big or fast". He's average size, probably 5'11-175 or thereabouts, and his skating is okay but he will have some trouble against the speedier centers. This leads some to believe that he has a lower talent ceiling at center -- along with the fact that Zary is an older draft eligible -- or that he will eventually find his NHL home on the wing.

I don't think there's anything to not like about Zary. He's a very safe pick. He'll make it to the NHL, but is he an impact player at that level? At the beginning of the WHL season, Zary was far and away the best draft-eligible forward in the league. But by the end of the year, Seth Jarvis had blown past him and Tristen Robins had caught him. This is not an insult to Zary -- Jarvis could go top 10 and Robins is the most underrated prospect in the entire 2020 draft. But although he would be a good pick at #18 or #20 and will certainly not be a bust on any level, there will probably also be kids drafted after him where you'll say in 10 years: "why didn't we take that guy?"

 

[Brodeur]

2020 NHL MOCK DRAFT 9/5/20

Vegas: LD Yan Kuznetsov, University of Connecticut NCAA big, physical shut-down defensemen are always always valued more by NHL front offices than by draft writers, so I don’t think this pick is the shocker some will make it out to be. Kuznetsov really impressed as a 17 year old playing a power game against young men in the NCAA, while still learning the language and culture. A very high floor, this kid is an NHL-er all the way.

Whenever Vegas picks, I can't help but think they just take the best available guy from the WHL due to the Kelly McCrimmon connections. HockeyProspect.com has Tristen Robins ranked 13th on their list (most others seem to have him in the 2nd/3rd round). Looked up a little more info on Robins yesterday and saw that he's from Brandon, Manitoba. Up until this week, McCrimmon was owner of the Brandon Wheat Kings and seemingly has/had good info on local players. Robins wouldn't really fit a particular need for Vegas, but I thought the loose connection was interesting.

Edit: Just saw you mentioned Robins in the previous post!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Whenever Vegas picks, I can't help but think they just take the best available guy from the WHL due to the Kelly McCrimmon connections. HockeyProspect.com has Tristen Robins ranked 13th on their list (most others seem to have him in the 2nd/3rd round). Looked up a little more info on Robins yesterday and saw that he's from Brandon, Manitoba. Up until this week, McCrimmon was owner of the Brandon Wheat Kings and seemingly has/had good info on local players. Robins wouldn't really fit a particular need for Vegas, but I thought the loose connection was interesting.

Edit: Just saw you mentioned Robins in the previous post!

That's an interesting take I haven't seen before.

I think a lot of heads will turn when they see where I have Tristen Robins in my final rankings. He's the biggest riser on my entire draft list. To me, he's the Brayden Point of the 2020 draft -- a kid who could fall to the second or even third round, and then leave the world of hockey shaking their heads that they passed him up when they had the chance.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

@StevenToddIves

I know you don't like to opine on goalie prospects in general, but would you give up drafting a skater with the fifth (130) or sixth (161) picks?

I'm looking at Dylan Garand from Kamloops.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves

I know you don't like to opine on goalie prospects in general, but would you give up drafting a skater with the fifth (130) or sixth (161) picks?

I'm looking at Dylan Garand from Kamloops.

Yes, if my scouts felt that goaltender was a worthwhile pick.

I like to think I'm pretty decent at draft analysis, but I have no problems admitting my weaknesses in assessing goalie and deferring to people who know more on the topic. If you want to give us a quick write-up on Garand, I'd love to read it. I will say he looked pretty impressive in the games I saw him play for the Blazers.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Yes, if my scouts felt that goaltender was a worthwhile pick.

I like to think I'm pretty decent at draft analysis, but I have no problems admitting my weaknesses in assessing goalie and deferring to people who know more on the topic. If you want to give us a quick write-up on Garand, I'd love to read it. I will say he looked pretty impressive in the games I saw him play for the Blazers.

Thanks. I'll leave the writing to others. I haven't watched him at all. Just another Kamloops player to look at now that one of their owners is in the fold.

THW ranks him at #127 overall.
Ranked #64 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #165 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #154 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #6 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Goalies)

 

[imMagnum]

Hey STI. What’s your take on Ponomaryov out of Shawinigan? Solid international player and could see him sneaking into one of the last first round picks.

 

[Guadana]

Haha, thanks for this. Gave me a great big smile.

Let's just make the argument that I love Slovenians the most because I ranked Anze Kopitar higher than anyone back in 2005.

Strangely, it's an interesting phenomenon you bring up. There actually are writers who give weight based on national affiliation. For many years, the prospect writers at The Hockey News were accused of giving higher draft standing to Canadian prospects. There is one major prospect writer at The Hockey Writers (I'll leave him nameless because he's nice and I'm criticizing him) who ranks every Swedish prospect about 10%-20% higher than they belong every year. Last year he had Philip Broberg at #5 (!) overall. This year he has Lucas Raymond at #2 (!!) overall and Gunler at #13 ahead of Quinn, Jarvis and Mercer. Just so you know, this writer has Reichel at #43... two spots below Zion Nybeck.

Speaking of Reichel, I really like him. But to me he's a late first-round pick, because I don't see him as having the scoring upside of a Perreault, Gunler or (fellow German, ha) JJ Peterka. Although Reichel also adds physicality, compete-level and two-way play which those players lack, on that level he is a bit behind Holloway and Mercer in my opinion. So I have Reichel just a notch below those players, in the #23-#32 range. That being said, I would not be upset at all with a Devils pick of Reichel at #20, I think he offers a very good all-around game with decent scoring and a high floor as a middle-6 kid who can excel at either wing.

But I thank you for bringing up an excellent point that some draft writers actually do have national biases. The biggest bias I see is writers who up-rank Scandinavian players as if they are prospecting gold and no one else knows who's good up there. The fact is, if you're a defenseman who scored 24 points in 40 games in Swedish juniors, you probably would have scored 15 points in 60 games in the USHL. Unless you're in a men's league like SHL or Liiga, the competition is just less physical and competitive than North American amateur hockey. The easy test for this in 2020 is to see where a draft writer has ranked Perreault and Gunler. These are two players who, for all intensive purposes, have similar strengths and weaknesses. They are both tremendous shooters and skaters with elite offensive tools, but they both have perceived weaknesses in the areas of all-around play and consistency/compete. But it's pretty clear that Perreault has the edge in shooting, skating and a big advantage in passing vision. So, if your draft writer has Gunler at #13 and Perreault in the second round, you know there's some sort of bias at work.

I'm reworking my draft rankings and hopefully will have them out in about two weeks. Yes, I will Reichel as a first-round pick. I think your analysis of prospects is top-notch and I like Reichel too, I just have him a little bit lower than you do, due to my perception of his offensive ceiling which is slightly more conservative than your own.

I'm a big fan of Swiss hockey players, and choosing Nico was a double joy for me.
In fact, I don't think being biased by nationality is so bad. What a terrible thing I said. I mean, I understand why some managers don't want to take Russian players, for example, if you have two players of the same talent on the table. Or why fans of the devils can be set negatively to pick Finns or Swedes.
I like Raymond even more than Lafrenier. But I wouldn't put Raymond above the German Stuzle. And I can't put Stuzle above Lafrenier. Here there is a conflict of personal preferences in the style of play and harsh reality, from which we should already draw the right conclusions.
It seems to me that the best approach is to evaluate a bunch of specific skills relative to the tasks that the player will perform on the ice.

Speaking of Reichel, I'm delighted that 38 percent of his shots are from dangerous area. His ShAtt from dangerous zone per 60min 5on5 stat is remarkable. Lukas is just a great winger for Hughes, who can and gives unexpected and clever passes, but no one can take advantage of them. Perhaps Reichel even more suitable than Holtz, who does not see the rink very well and doesn`t understand the game well, if we believe the statistics, and if we watch several games with Holtz. Reichel isn`t a guy who can score 40-50 goals, sometimes he can be useless on boards, but what i see in his games against swiss - he understands zone pressure on both sides of the rink and it`s a sign for me he can be coached in board challenges. I`m not saying he is a two way player, but he isn`t useless, like Perreault can be. And what can i say specifically say about Reichel(and Raymond too) both of them are good back skaters, this helps them easily switch from defense to offense. Lukas is very young, he can`t make a jump right into the NHL, this is a player worth waiting for.He is a Raymond type of player but with lower ceiling andhe is more shooter.

If Fitz doesn't make any trades, most likely between Reichel, Perreault, and Gunler maybe, he will choose. If Raymond is the 7th , then the 18th and 20th need to take stronger hockey players. If Rossi is the 7th, it would be very good to take the dynamic and sharp Reichel.

That's an interesting take I haven't seen before.

I think a lot of heads will turn when they see where I have Tristen Robins in my final rankings. He's the biggest riser on my entire draft list. To me, he's the Brayden Point of the 2020 draft -- a kid who could fall to the second or even third round, and then leave the world of hockey shaking their heads that they passed him up when they had the chance.

And we will see Senators will pick him and Foudy in 2nd round. I can't imagine how Ottawa will look like in four years.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Thanks. I'll leave the writing to others. I haven't watched him at all. Just another Kamloops player to look at now that one of their owners is in the fold.

THW ranks him at #127 overall.
Ranked #64 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #165 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #154 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #6 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Goalies)

Great stuff -- thanks!

 

[My3Sons]

Connor Zary is, quite simply, all substance and no flash. One of the older draft eligibles from the WHL and certainly the most polished of the group, it's safe to say that he dominated the league for Kamloops. He's the type of player I like in that his two most prominent tools are his heart and his brain. This is an exceptionally mature and intelligent player, who is always positionally sound and terrific at anticipating the puck and the opposition. He supplements that with a tremendous compete level, and these qualities make him an absolute can't-miss NHL-er.

The question is, will his physical tools allow him the upside of being a top line player or a big-time scorer at the NHL level? I really like his hands and his passing, both of which are clearly benefitted by his intelligence and elite decision-making. His shooting is pretty good, but not great -- I like his wrist shot but not so much his slapper. The problem which drops Zary to potentially the #20-#30 range is the combination of "not big or fast". He's average size, probably 5'11-175 or thereabouts, and his skating is okay but he will have some trouble against the speedier centers. This leads some to believe that he has a lower talent ceiling at center -- along with the fact that Zary is an older draft eligible -- or that he will eventually find his NHL home on the wing.

I don't think there's anything to not like about Zary. He's a very safe pick. He'll make it to the NHL, but is he an impact player at that level? At the beginning of the WHL season, Zary was far and away the best draft-eligible forward in the league. But by the end of the year, Seth Jarvis had blown past him and Tristen Robins had caught him. This is not an insult to Zary -- Jarvis could go top 10 and Robins is the most underrated prospect in the entire 2020 draft. But although he would be a good pick at #18 or #20 and will certainly not be a bust on any level, there will probably also be kids drafted after him where you'll say in 10 years: "why didn't we take that guy?"

Sounds kinda sorta like Jost.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Hey STI. What’s your take on Ponomaryov out of Shawinigan? Solid international player and could see him sneaking into one of the last first round picks.

I really like Ponomaryev. He oozes my two favorite tools -- compete level and intelligence. I think he's a plus in a litany of offensive tools -- very good passer and puck handler who knows where to be on the ice. Vasily anticipates the play well and makes excellent puck decisions. He's also a very good two-way center with relentless hustle. So much to like here.

That being said, I do not see Ponomaryev as a first round pick, because the average skating mixed with average size of 5'10-180 will likely keep him as a likely third-line pivot with perhaps some second line upside. I think the sum of his parts are more intriguing than his actual parts, and I'm a big fan with players like this -- they are usually the types of kids to maximize their physical talents. But ultimately, I see him falling in the draft behind centers with higher perceived upside like Khusnutdinov and Bordeleau. I'd say he's a good bet to go somewhere around the mid-2nd round.

 

[Guadana]

Sounds kinda sorta like Jost.

Is Jost what we lookin for in this draft?

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm a big fan of Swiss hockey players, and choosing Nico was a double joy for me.
In fact, I don't think being biased by nationality is so bad. What a terrible thing I said. I mean, I understand why some managers don't want to take Russian players, for example, if you have two players of the same talent on the table. Or why fans of the devils can be set negatively to pick Finns or Swedes.
I like Raymond even more than Lafrenier. But I wouldn't put Raymond above the German Stuzle. And I can't put Stuzle above Lafrenier. Here there is a conflict of personal preferences in the style of play and harsh reality, from which we should already draw the right conclusions.
It seems to me that the best approach is to evaluate a bunch of specific skills relative to the tasks that the player will perform on the ice.

Speaking of Reichel, I'm delighted that 38 percent of his shots are from dangerous area. His ShAtt from dangerous zone per 60min 5on5 stat is remarkable. Lukas is just a great winger for Hughes, who can and gives unexpected and clever passes, but no one can take advantage of them. Perhaps Reichel even more suitable than Holtz, who does not see the rink very well and doesn`t understand the game well, if we believe the statistics, and if we watch several games with Holtz. Reichel isn`t a guy who can score 40-50 goals, sometimes he can be useless on boards, but what i see in his games against swiss - he understands zone pressure on both sides of the rink and it`s a sign for me he can be coached in board challenges. I`m not saying he is a two way player, but he isn`t useless, like Perreault can be. And what can i say specifically say about Reichel(and Raymond too) both of them are good back skaters, this helps them easily switch from defense to offense. Lukas is very young, he can`t make a jump right into the NHL, this is a player worth waiting for.He is a Raymond type of player but with lower ceiling andhe is more shooter.

If Fitz doesn't make any trades, most likely between Reichel, Perreault, and Gunler maybe, he will choose. If Raymond is the 7th , then the 18th and 20th need to take stronger hockey players. If Rossi is the 7th, it would be very good to take the dynamic and sharp Reichel.



And we will see Senators will pick him and Foudy in 2nd round. I can't imagine how Ottawa will look like in four years.

Great points you're making here, I always love to read your opinions.

As for Ottawa, I could see them taking Foudy in the second round, but not Robins. The Senators scouts really like bigger players. I could see Robins going to Detroit with the first pick of the second round -- GM Steve Yzerman took Robins' best comparable of Brayden Point, after all. Personally, I don't see Robins falling last Winnipeg with the #40 overall pick -- the Jets draft very well and really like high compete levels, high upside forwards and WHL players.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I agree with you on Holloway but disagree on trading a first-round pick for a "roster d-man". The last thing the Devils need is another space-filler on D, and they're not getting a top-2 guy for the 20th pick. Better off signing a UFA defenseman and keeping that pick. There is no defenseman I have heard in trade talk who is more of what the Devils need than Brendan Dillon. And I don't see what's wrong with bringing back Andy Greene for one more year. Then I trade Will Butcher for a guy who can actually defend like Brayden McNabb (and add a 2nd round pick in the process) and I have a blueline which is actually competitive.

Dillon-Severson
McNabb-Subban
Greene-Smith

That's a fair assessment. I do not really know what options there are out there for trade, but I was just saying more if there was an opportunity, which i do not know if there is. I don't pay attention to other teams really.

I don't really want Greene back tbh. Would be interested in mcnabb though.

 

[My3Sons]

And we will see Senators will pick him and Foudy in 2nd round. I can't imagine how Ottawa will look like in four years.

Unless they change ownership I expect they will look pretty much the same in four years.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's a fair assessment. I do not really know what options there are out there for trade, but I was just saying more if there was an opportunity, which i do not know if there is. I don't pay attention to other teams really.

I don't really want Greene back tbh. Would be interested in mcnabb though.

There are actually several reasons to sign Andy Greene. He would almost certainly be willing to come back at a one year deal, below market. And if the Devils find themselves on the outside looking in come next trade deadline, you deal him and pick up another third-round pick. It would double as a feel-good move for Fitzgerald, since the Devils' players and fans alike love Andy Greene.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Whenever Vegas picks, I can't help but think they just take the best available guy from the WHL due to the Kelly McCrimmon connections. HockeyProspect.com has Tristen Robins ranked 13th on their list (most others seem to have him in the 2nd/3rd round). Looked up a little more info on Robins yesterday and saw that he's from Brandon, Manitoba. Up until this week, McCrimmon was owner of the Brandon Wheat Kings and seemingly has/had good info on local players. Robins wouldn't really fit a particular need for Vegas, but I thought the loose connection was interesting.

Edit: Just saw you mentioned Robins in the previous post!

I mention Robins all the time. He's likely my favorite player in the entire draft, give or take a certain Mr. Rossi.

 

[My3Sons]

There are actually several reasons to sign Andy Greene. He would almost certainly be willing to come back at a one year deal, below market. And if the Devils find themselves on the outside looking in come next trade deadline, you deal him and pick up another third-round pick. It would double as a feel-good move for Fitzgerald, since the Devils' players and fans alike love Andy Greene.

Assuming you believe that Butcher could play on a second pair it would only make sense to bring Greene back to be either a first pair defender or a place holder type defender on the third pair that you move to the press box at the first opportunity to give the sheltered minutes to a young player. If he’d be ok with that sort of role then ok but aren’t there better guys likely to be available in UFA on reasonable term and aav?

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Great stuff -- thanks!

Yeah the highlight reel stuff is nice, but would probably learn more about Garand's weaknesses/areas needing improvement from video of his goals against. I'll look for them and put them in here if that's all right. And some video of the other G prospects that might be available in the later rounds. Looking forward to @Bleedred 's thoughts.

Edit: Please note dates of videos for developmental purposes. This is just a first look. There's more I haven't looked at yet.

 

[beekay414]

Great points you're making here, I always love to read your opinions.

As for Ottawa, I could see them taking Foudy in the second round, but not Robins. The Senators scouts really like bigger players. I could see Robins going to Detroit with the first pick of the second round -- GM Steve Yzerman took Robins' best comparable of Brayden Point, after all. Personally, I don't see Robins falling last Winnipeg with the #40 overall pick -- the Jets draft very well and really like high compete levels, high upside forwards and WHL players.

Damn. I hate the fact that Robins rose as much as he has. Makes me want to trade 18 for 27 and 36, just so we can scoop him at 27 while still getting another high end prospect at 36. With the obvious caveat of neither Mercer or Jarvis being on the board at 18.

EDIT - 28 and 33 (Ottawa) seems more reasonable than Anaheim's picks but the point still stands. Not sure how draft pick trade values are but I'd assume 28 and 33 for 20 would be too costly so I'd also add in the Boston 4th or our 5th to get it done.