Prospect Info: 2020 Devils-Centric Mock Draft, Conference Finals Edition

[StevenToddIves]

My wish list is:

Draft Drysdale/Sanderson at 7
Draft Mercer/Amirov/Quinn/Jarvis
Trade the third pick

I hope thats not too much to ask for Mr Fitzgerald!

This is all subjective on my part, but I still don't see Drysdale or Sanderson as available with the #7 pick.

I will also add that there's almost no way on earth Jack Quinn is available with the #18 pick.

Also subjective -- no reason to trade that third pick unless the return is a young, bluechip defenseman or scoring winger and I don't know of any team in the NHL willing to trade one of those for the #20 pick. Sure, the Devils can pick up an average-to-above-average 3/4 defenseman like Leddy or Brodin, but is that really worth the future?

 

[njdevils309]

hey @StevenToddIves , with the 20th pick, wondering why you wouldn't mock us taking lapierre? Feel like that is a luxury pick, so why not swing for the fence there? I think you've said it before on this that lapierre has the talent of a top 10 pick, just injury concerns are the issue. Also, I've read in other spots that the injury concerns may be overblown as well, because a couple of the injuries were not actually to the head but to like the neck area or something. If we get two solid picks with the other two, feel like that's the exact spot where taking a flyer on a player like lapierre would be warranted.

 

[StevenToddIves]

hey @StevenToddIves , with the 20th pick, wondering why you wouldn't mock us taking lapierre? Feel like that is a luxury pick, so why not swing for the fence there? I think you've said it before on this that lapierre has the talent of a top 10 pick, just injury concerns are the issue. Also, I've read in other spots that the injury concerns may be overblown as well, because a couple of the injuries were not actually to the head but to like the neck area or something. If we get two solid picks with the other two, feel like that's the exact spot where taking a flyer on a player like lapierre would be warranted.

Gunler IS a swing for the fences. As much as Lapierre.

I'd say the class of 2020 has 4 high-risk players who have top 10-type talent but wll fall because they make scouts nervous. Lapierre is one of them -- his vision is second best in the entire draft after Lafreniere, and he's also got a terrific mix of skating and puckhandling. But the injuries which are scariest are not only concussions, but also neck and back injuries. They are the most likely to recur and in debilitating fashion. Lapierre has suffered serious injuries to all of these areas before he turned 19 years old. Even if these injuries never happened, Lapierre is not a perfect player. I'm a big fan of 90% of his game, but he has a weak shot and avoids using it at all costs. This makes him a bit predictable, and defensemen tend to back off him because they're worried about the pass and not the shot. That being said, Lapierre is an absolutely elite and dynamic passer. Better than Stutzle or Raymond or Rossi, even.

The other 3 players in this category are Gunler, Perreault and Poirier. I'd say Poirier is the biggest risk outside of Lapierre, because he's unbelievable offensively -- second best offensive defenseman in the draft after Drysdale -- but he's pretty atrocious in his own zone. He needs to come a long way with the defensive game if an NHL coach is even going to consider playing him. You could say the same thing about Grans and Wallinder on the back end, but Poirier has significantly more offensive talent than those two.

As for Perreault and Gunler, they are extraordinary goal-scoring talents at RW. Both of them have combinations of skating and shooting which are absolutely elite. I'd rank Perreault a bit higher because he also has elite vision, while Gunler's is good but not dynamic. But Perreault can be lazy, especially defensively, while Gunler is mercurial and can disappear for alarming stretches. These are facets which can be instilled in the coaching/development process, but you prefer a first-round pick not to have problems in those respects. That being said, both Perreault and Gunler have big-time goal-scoring upside, even rivaling likely top-10 pick Alexander Holtz.

If I had a choice of these players at #20, I would take Perreault or Gunler, because the Devils need goal-scoring wings more than playmaking centers. They already have two potential elite ones in Hischier and Hughes. And again, I would say that Gunler and Perreault are slightly less risky than Lapierre. I love the kid's game and wish him the best for his career, but I'd prefer to let some other team take that chance.

 

[TBF1972]

2020 NHL MOCK DRAFT 9/5/20

There might be some picks seen as shockers here, but I'm not doing it for attention. The fact is that every year the actual draft has shocking picks, and I'm trying to anticipate them. No one expected Moritz Seider at #6 overall last year, and no one expected Jesperi Kotkaniemi at #3 overall the year before. So, I don't see Lundell at #5 as the least bit unrealistic. Also, I study all the organizations and their GMs to the best of my ability. Anyway, all mock drafts are hypotheticals by nature, and here's one idea how it can all pan out.

[WRITER’S NOTE: I wanted to get this done today, before everyone else drops the next round of mock drafts. So I went ahead and assumed the Islanders would win tonight when defining my draft order. I mean, I’m rooting all the way for my man Lou Lamoriello. Not to mention Andy Greene, who wore the captaincy with class for the Devils for many, many years.]

1. NY Rangers: LW Alex Lafreniere, Rimouski QMJHL he’s going to be the most talented forward ever drafted by the Blueshirts, plain and simple
2. Los Angeles: C Quinton Byfield, Sudbury OHL I still think Ottawa tries to flip the 2 and 3 spots to get Byfield, but if not LA cannot pass up on the best combination of size/speed/skill at the center position in over a decade
3. Ottawa: C/LW Tim Stutzle, Mannheim DEL a dazzling combination of elite skating, hands and vision unmatched by anyone in the class of 2020
4. Detroit: LD Jake Sanderson, US-NTDP USHL the best two-way defenseman available in the draft in recent memory; Detroit is incredibly thin at LD and GM Yzerman knows how to build a winner
5. Ottawa: C Anton Lundell, HIFK FIN I think Lundell goes earlier than expected, much like Finnish country-mate Kotkaniemi a few years back; Senators need center depth and Lundell is a big, two-way force who is nearly NHL ready
6. Anaheim: RD Jamie Drysdale, Erie OHL the Ducks are organizationally bereft on the blueline; Drysdale is a dynamic offensive force who reminds of Cale Makar not long ago
7. NEW JERSEY: C Marco Rossi, Ottawa OHL of course there are connections to several Devils prospects in Ottawa and his relationship with Nico Hischier, but Rossi is the best two-way center in the draft and his offensive skills are absolutely dynamic.
8. Buffalo: W Lucas Raymond, Frolunda SWE the Sabres need wingers for superstar center Eichel and future superstar center Cozens, Raymond is a dazzling offensive weapon with a combo of skating/hands/vision which compares to Stutzle at the top of the 2020 class
9. Minnesota: RW Alexander Holtz, Djurgardens SWE new GM Billy Guerin inherited a mess where the Wild need pretty much everything; they would likely prefer a center (Rossi or Lundell) fall to them, but here we have them making off with the best pure sniper in the entire 2020 draft
10. Winnipeg: RW Jack Quinn, Ottawa OHL the Jets draft very well when they actually have not traded their picks; Quinn has the ability to score more goals than anyone else in the 2020 draft and combines that with an excellent 200-foot game
11. Nashville: LW/C Cole Perfetti, Saginaw OHL someone’s got to fall out of the top 10, and this is no fault of Perfetti — a high character, high-IQ player with a tremendous shot and uncanny ability to slow the game down
12. Florida: LD Kaiden Guhle, Prince Albert WHL a front office in flux makes the Panthers tough to predict, but they need D and Guhle is a big, fast hitting machine with great compete and a bomb from the point
13. Carolina: G Yaroslav Askarov, SKA-St. Petersburg VHL the Hurricanes have needed goaltending pretty much forever, Askarov is considered the best draft-eligible at the position since Carey Price
14. Edmonton: RW/C Seth Jarvis, Portland WHL the Oilers are on a perpetual quest to surround ultra-elite centers McDavid and Draisaitl with wingers; Jarvis compares quite well to Raymond and could be a surprise as early as the #8-#10 range
15. Toronto: RD Helge Grans, Malmo SHL the Leafs acquiring the #15 pick from Pittsburgh has made this pick far more difficult to predict; the Leafs need defense and have a GM who does not believe that playing defense is a requirement for an NHL defenseman. Grans is huge, skilled and can fly however, making him a big risk with big potential reward
16. Montreal: RD Braden Schneider, Brandon WHL the best shut-down RD available by a long shot, Schneider is big, mobile, smart, efficient with the puck and will be a 20+ minute stud at the NHL level
17. Chicago: LW Rodion Amirov, Salavat Ufa KHL after spending the lion’s share of first-round picks in recent years on D, the Blackhawks are trying to rebuild a talented stable of future forwards; Amirov is incredibly skilled with silky hands and a sniping shot, while also a 200-foot competitor.
18. NEW JERSEY: RW/C Dawson Mercer, Chicoutimi QMJHL call it wishful thinking, but it could happen. A few defensemen and Askarov go earlier than the consensus thinks, and the Devils could get a top-10 caliber, future first-line winger with the pick acquired from Arizona. Mercer’s hands are dynamic, and his game is complete. He can set it up and finish, drive a line, and play a physical 200-foot game. If he can improve his skating a little more, this kid has superstar potential.
19. Calgary: RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia OHL when I say this kid’s talent level is better than any wing in the 2020 draft not named Lafreniere, I’m not exaggerating. His shot, skating and vision combination is better than any winger in the draft at all, even Lafreniere. He’s young and needs to up his 200-foot game and compete level, but there’s just no denying his upside.
20. NEW JERSEY: RW Noel Gunler, Lulea SWE when you have three picks in the top-20 of a forward-heavy draft and your top organizational need is high-end talent? Well, shoot for the moon. Gunler is every bit as talented as fellow Swedish RW Holtz — his shot is not Holtz's superpower, but it’s an elite skill, and his skating is outstanding. Like Perreault, there have been questions about Gunler’s compete level and 200-foot game, but he’s a smart kid and his talent ceiling is astronomical.
21. Columbus: LW/C Dylan Holloway, University of Wisconsin NCAA no player screams “Tortorella” more than Holloway, a big, fast power forward with the requisite skill to play with top scorers. Lacks the high ceiling of some first round forwards, but has a high floor as a middle-6 beast.
22. NY Rangers: C Marat Khusnutdinov, SKA-St. Petersburg MHL the Rangers need a center, and traditionally defer early to their Swedish and Russian scouts. Khusnutdinov may be small, but he combines his dynamic offensive game with a high compete level and relentless defensive effort.
23. Washington: C Connor Zary, Kamloops WHL might be a bit lower than Zary is projected, but his offensive ability is more middle-6 than top-6. However, he’s a smart and polished two-way pivot with very low risk and the ability to put up 50-60 point seasons at the NHL level.
24. Colorado: LW JJ Peterka, EHC Munchen DEL what a year for Germany, who could have as many as 3 first-round picks. Peterka has sick hands and dynamic offensive skills, he’s also incredibly smart and great at anticipating the puck, especially in the offensive zone.
25. St. Louis: LD Ryan O’Rourke, Sault Ste Marie OHL fiercely competitive, shut-down LD with incredible leadership and intriguing offensive skills, nothing not to like here.
26. Anaheim: LD Tyler Kleven, US-NTDP USHL the Ducks have a very old-school front office and they love big, physical shut-down D who can skate. That’s Kleven, who also adds a bomb from the point.
27. Philadelphia: C Ridley Greig, Brandon WHL the Flyers scouts love kids with high compete levels, and Greig’s is absolutely ferocious. He’s also a very skilled player with no discernible weakness. There’s nothing this kid will not do to win, and he’s one of the most likable players in the entire draft class.
28. Ottawa: RD Justin Barron, Halifax QMJHL if Ottawa goes forward with their two top-5 picks, there is little doubt they fortify their blueline with the pick acquired from the Islanders. Barron has all the requisite size, speed and skill to be a very good mid-pairing NHL defenseman, but an injury and inconsistency plagued draft-eligible season has dropped his standing somewhat
29. Dallas: C/LW Jan Mysak, Hamilton OHL I really love this young, Czech sniper and think he should go even higher. The kid really knows how to score and when he’s on his game can absolutely dominate, he just needs to smooth out his skating stride, especially in terms of acceleration, and improve his consistency. The sky is the limit.
30. Vegas: LD Yan Kuznetsov, University of Connecticut NCAA big, physical shut-down defensemen are always always valued more by NHL front offices than by draft writers, so I don’t think this pick is the shocker some will make it out to be. Kuznetsov really impressed as a 17 year old playing a power game against young men in the NCAA, while still learning the language and culture. A very high floor, this kid is an NHL-er all the way.
31. San Jose: RW Mavrik Bourque, Shawinigan QMJHL there’s no doubt this kid can score, but his need for improvements in the surrounding aspects of his game could drop him to the bottom of the first round. The Sharks are desperate for pure scorers in their system, and Bourque has a dizzying array of shots which can beat a netminder clean from virtually anywhere in the offensive zone.
32. Detroit: C Hendrix Lapierre, Chicoutimi QMJHL just for fun — and because a couple of my good buddies are big Wings fans — I’ll add the first pick in the second round. Lapierre could rightly be called the wild card of the draft — his passing and vision could be second-best in the entire draft after Alex Lafreniere. But a litany of serious injuries, concussions and a neck injury, make his draft position very difficult to speculate. Could wind up being that second-round pick who scores 90+ points in the NHL and you wonder how you passed on him. Also, could be that “what if” player who spends more time in the training room than on the ice. I’m rooting for this dynamic talent all the way.

I'd love to hear your comments, criticisms and Devils wishlists. The Devils are locked in with a trio of top-20 picks, so let's talk draft!

in this scenario my wish list would be raymond, mercer and holloway.

 

[TBF1972]

My first big battle for my next draft ranking -- to blow the suspense -- is who's #3? Because to me, Rossi and Stutzle are very close. That's how high I am on Marco Rossi. If you want another example, last year Rossi would have been my #2 overall after only Jack Hughes. He's really that good.

better than kakko!
you should inform our friends from across the river about that FACT.

 

[StevenToddIves]

better than kakko!
you should inform our friends from across the river about that FACT.

Kakko is an outstanding young player. He's going to be a terrific NHL-er for many years to come, I said this last year at the draft and I'll say it again now. But he's not quite a Lafreniere or a Svechnikov.

 

[StevenToddIves]

in this scenario my wish list would be raymond, mercer and holloway.

Well, we're not far off because my choice at #7 was Rossi or Raymond, while my choice at #20 was Gunler or Holloway.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

ending up with Rossi at 7 would be sweet, but I have to say I will be surprised that if they make all 3 of their picks that none of them are DMen...I know you don't like to force a position though

I have to say, if they do end up with a 1st round like that, you have to think a forward somewhere is on the way out in a trade for a DMan

 

[Forge]

I worry that we will reach for a defender with one of the two later picks. I think that there is a good chance that by pick 18/20, most of the reasonable defenders will be gone because teams like to reach for defensemen and centers. So by pick 18, it wouldn't at all shock me if Drysdale, Sanderson, Schneider and Guhle are all gone, along with one additional of either Barron or Wallinder. At that point, I'd hope that we trade down if we were targeting a defender because it's really closer to round two where I think you start getting back into the value section of the defenders again, and taking a defender at 18 or 20 if we are already 4 or 5 deep isn't ideal for me, though that's just a personal idea on the prospects.

 

[StevenToddIves]

ending up with Rossi at 7 would be sweet, but I have to say I will be surprised that if they make all 3 of their picks that none of them are DMen...I know you don't like to force a position though

I have to say, if they do end up with a 1st round like that, you have to think a forward somewhere is on the way out in a trade for a DMan

I cannot stress this enough. The 2020 draft is very deep for talented forwards, especially goal-scorers. The 2020 draft is very thin for defensemen. It's that simple.

There are two defensemen who should go in the top 10 -- Drysdale and Sanderson. This is pretty much universally accepted right now.

There are two more defensemen who should even be in consideration for the top 20 -- Guhle and Schneider. Again, I would accept a counterpoint that Ryan O'Rourke could squeeze in here, but you'd be leaving some potentially high-end forwards on the board.

As such, we are hearing some absolutely absurd names being bandied about as possible first-round defensemen. Look -- I agree that Jeremie Poirier and Helge Grans have big-time offensive talent, but you're not talking "guys who need to work on their defense". You're talking "guys who are an absolute liability on defense". Conversely, I love physical defensive stalwarts like Kleven and Kuznetsov, but there just isn't anything much more than average puck skills on a pair of guys who lack the polish and anticipation of a Schneider. To me, those four are all good second round picks, but at #20? With potential 40+ goal scorers like Perreault and Gunler on the board?

Justin Barron is a RD who is very likely to go in the first round because of his mix of size and skating, but I don't think anyone can describe his draft-eligible season without using the words "very" and "disappointing". Mukhamadullin and Moore also have big-time talent, but are so far down on. the development curve that you're really going to need to cross your fingers and wait, so we're talking kids who would be nice chances in the 2nd/3rd rounds, but not #20 overall.

Some of the defensemen I've read as possible picks for the Devils at #20 are just bleeding across the line of utter absurdity. Recently, I read Lukas Cormier. Sure he's good with the puck, but we're not talking a first-pairing offensive talent by any means, and at 5'10 with a lot of work to do in his own zone, we're likely discussing a 3rd/4th round target. Yesterday, I just read a third (!) article suggesting Wallinder to the Devils at #20 (the Hockey Writers). I mean, if someone wants to take a player who has a hat trick of red flags in poor decision-making, poorer puck-handling and freakishly poor shooting and label him an "offensive defenseman" that's up to them, but I'm looking in other places at #20 overall.

There are a couple of defensemen I really like, but the Devils would have to trade down (maybe adding a second round pick) in order to make them work. Brock Faber and Topi Niemela are both terrific young RD who have been painfully overlooked this draft year. I think they both can be outstanding mid-pairing types at the NHL level who contribute in all three zones. On LD I think the closest we can come here is Donovan Sebrango, who could also likely be had in the 2nd to early 3rd rounds.

Ultimately, I think positional need SHOULD play a part in the draft process. If you're picking at #20 and the top player on your list is a LW you ranked #16, but you need a D and the top D remaining is your #19? I don't think it's a crime to go with that D.

But, if Schneider and Guhle are gone, the top 10 players on the Devils draft board are likely to be forwards. You just can't reach down that far -- especially when you look ahead to the 2021 draft which is loaded (and I mean, loaded) with defensemen. My opinion would be to get some high-upside scoring talent early, and then hope with the Devils' 3rd/4th rounders guys like Faber, Sebrango, Niemela or Moore is still around. Of course, the best case scenario is the Devils get Drysdale or Sanderson at #7 and none of this is even an issue.

 

[Ol Dirty Bstrd]

What’s the scouting report on Mavrik Bourque? His numbers really jump off the page. Could he be a target at 18/20?

 

[StevenToddIves]

What’s the scouting report on Mavrik Bourque? His numbers really jump off the page. Could he be a target at 18/20?

I like Bourque, but I admittedly have not discussed him much because he's a bit of a problematic player. There's not denying the offense -- Bourque has a ridiculous variety of shots and they're all extremely dangerous. He's a very smart and creative offense player and handles the puck extremely well with his soft hands. In these senses, I would rank him in the ballpark of RWs like Perreault and Gunler. Also like those two, Bourque is by no means a polished two-way players and suffers from lapses in consistency. Again, these are coachable problems which can be alleviated as a young prospect develops.

Where Bourque lags behind Perreault and Gunler in my opinion is that I'd say he's an average skater, while Gunler is an excellent skater and Perreault an elite skater. He's also smaller and not as strong, so he's not going to get the greasy goals which Perreault and Gunler are also capable of.

I actually am very optimistic about the upside of Mavrik Bourque. I think he's a 30+ goal-scorer in the NHL and a terrific pick at the end of the first round. In most drafts, he would be a top sniping winger, but the 2020 is deeper in sniping wingers (especially at RW) than anything, so I think he is drafted around the 25-30 overall range.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

 

[Forge]

Less than a month away

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Passing on Holloway at 20th, could be a mistake. He’s big, smart, skates well and is a leader. Yes, he’s a north to south player, but you still need those type wingers like a Brock Nelson. Plus, the Devils aren’t exactly a big team.

 

[Forge]

Passing on Holloway at 20th, could be a mistake. He’s big, smart, skates well and is a leader. Yes, he’s a north to south player, but you still need those wingers like a Brock Nelson. Plus, the Devils aren’t exactly a big team.

I don't know that it's a mistake...depends on who is there (which includes Holloway, who may be gone before that). However, I will say that recently I've come around on Holloway as being a really good linemate for Jack down the line. Has the skill, skating, size to be the type of player Jack could really use on the wing. Can get in there and get gritty along the boards and win some battles.

 

[Guadana]

There are too many interesting players. Stevie, for example, misses out on Reichel, who is an explosive player for the right team. But if you don't like the Germans, Steven, then you should don't like the Austrians either. That's where all the German problems come from, if you know what i mean.
At the same time, even in 2003 there were busts. And it would be interesting to discuss the first round from this point of view.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Passing on Holloway at 20th, could be a mistake. He’s big, smart, skates well and is a leader. Yes, he’s a north to south player, but you still need those type wingers like a Brock Nelson. Plus, the Devils aren’t exactly a big team.

I'm a big fan of Holloway, I don't think anyone doubts that. And there's certainly a strong chance the Devils have him circled as one of the players they would love at #20. But there is also a strong chance the Devils have strong interest in Perreault and Gunler, two players with high-end skill sets as possible future top-line sniping RWs. These are all players we should be discussing as possibilities at #18 and #20 overall.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't know that it's a mistake...depends on who is there (which includes Holloway, who may be gone before that). However, I will say that recently I've come around on Holloway as being a really good linemate for Jack down the line. Has the skill, skating, size to be the type of player Jack could really use on the wing. Can get in there and get gritty along the boards and win some battles.

I really think that Hughes/Holloway have Mat Barzal/Anders Lee potential.

I often say that I believe in "balance" in building an NHL winner. Whereas a mediocre GM would try to acquire two more Jack Hughes-type wingers to play with Hughes, I think a good GM looks for two wingers with the requisite skill to play alongside Hughes but who add other necessary dimensions, like the ability to crash creases and snipe goals off Hughes' silky passing. So, Holloway certainly makes a great deal of sense for the Devils at #20, and as such I will continue to endorse him as one of the prime candidates for the pick.

 

[Brodeur]

Tuesday/Wednesday......that'll be a bit different.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Honestly, I know this is where differences in opinion would lie, but for me I would use the 3 picks to get more surefire picks and not try to gamble on any of them. Thus, out of choices between Holloway, Gunler, and Perrault I would choose Holloway. Definitely has the lowest ceiling but has by far the highest floor.

Leave the high risk gambling for later rounds.

Actually scratch that I would rather try to trade that 3rd pick for a roster d-man if possible, but that's easier said than done.

 

[Forge]

Honestly, I know this is where differences in opinion would lie, but for me I would use the 3 picks to get more surefire picks and not try to gamble on any of them. Thus, out of choices between Holloway, Gunler, and Perrault I would choose Holloway. Definitely has the lowest ceiling but has by far the highest floor.

Leave the high risk gambling for later rounds.

Actually scratch that I would rather try to trade that 3rd pick for a roster d-man if possible, but that's easier said than done.

The problem is that this is basically what are farm system is at this point. Just stocked and loaded with bottom six types, and third pair guys but very limited with guys who have huge upside. We need to gamble on some upside too

 

[StevenToddIves]

There are too many interesting players. Stevie, for example, misses out on Reichel, who is an explosive player for the right team. But if you don't like the Germans, Steven, then you should don't like the Austrians either. That's where all the German problems come from, if you know what i mean.
At the same time, even in 2003 there were busts. And it would be interesting to discuss the first round from this point of view.

Haha, thanks for this. Gave me a great big smile.

Let's just make the argument that I love Slovenians the most because I ranked Anze Kopitar higher than anyone back in 2005.

Strangely, it's an interesting phenomenon you bring up. There actually are writers who give weight based on national affiliation. For many years, the prospect writers at The Hockey News were accused of giving higher draft standing to Canadian prospects. There is one major prospect writer at The Hockey Writers (I'll leave him nameless because he's nice and I'm criticizing him) who ranks every Swedish prospect about 10%-20% higher than they belong every year. Last year he had Philip Broberg at #5 (!) overall. This year he has Lucas Raymond at #2 (!!) overall and Gunler at #13 ahead of Quinn, Jarvis and Mercer. Just so you know, this writer has Reichel at #43... two spots below Zion Nybeck.

Speaking of Reichel, I really like him. But to me he's a late first-round pick, because I don't see him as having the scoring upside of a Perreault, Gunler or (fellow German, ha) JJ Peterka. Although Reichel also adds physicality, compete-level and two-way play which those players lack, on that level he is a bit behind Holloway and Mercer in my opinion. So I have Reichel just a notch below those players, in the #23-#32 range. That being said, I would not be upset at all with a Devils pick of Reichel at #20, I think he offers a very good all-around game with decent scoring and a high floor as a middle-6 kid who can excel at either wing.

But I thank you for bringing up an excellent point that some draft writers actually do have national biases. The biggest bias I see is writers who up-rank Scandinavian players as if they are prospecting gold and no one else knows who's good up there. The fact is, if you're a defenseman who scored 24 points in 40 games in Swedish juniors, you probably would have scored 15 points in 60 games in the USHL. Unless you're in a men's league like SHL or Liiga, the competition is just less physical and competitive than North American amateur hockey. The easy test for this in 2020 is to see where a draft writer has ranked Perreault and Gunler. These are two players who, for all intensive purposes, have similar strengths and weaknesses. They are both tremendous shooters and skaters with elite offensive tools, but they both have perceived weaknesses in the areas of all-around play and consistency/compete. But it's pretty clear that Perreault has the edge in shooting, skating and a big advantage in passing vision. So, if your draft writer has Gunler at #13 and Perreault in the second round, you know there's some sort of bias at work.

I'm reworking my draft rankings and hopefully will have them out in about two weeks. Yes, I will Reichel as a first-round pick. I think your analysis of prospects is top-notch and I like Reichel too, I just have him a little bit lower than you do, due to my perception of his offensive ceiling which is slightly more conservative than your own.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

The problem is that this is basically what are farm system is at this point. Just stocked and loaded with bottom six types, and third pair guys but very limited with guys who have huge upside. We need to gamble on some upside too

That's not really true. If a clear potential of these guys who we drafted in the later rounds were more well known, they would've been drafted way earlier. We will never know who emerges as surprises until it actually is time. No one expected Bratt to be anything at all. I don't think anyone pegged him as someone with potentially 1st line potential when we drafted him.

Another example would be thompson. Literally no one thought he'd be anything more than just a body. 1 yr after this draft year, he looks more promising and maybe a 2nd liner? Who knows what his potential will be in the nhl.

TLDR, we have plenty of other prospects we picked in the later rounds who certainly have high potential but it's way too unpredictable if they truly have 1st line potential. If that was known they would be 1st or 2nd round picks.

edit: my point isn't to argue about whether we should go for upside or not with 1st round pick, just that it's not necessarily true that we don't have high upside prospects and just trying to explain my logic with that. It's just my preference to go with prospects that are more likely to make an impact with the 1st round picks. We aren't really as far as you people think, the issue is, these guys just aren't ready yet. So I'd like to use the 1st round picks to get someone who can make an impact sooner than later and it's not like Holloway is some scrub either, easily a 2nd liner at the very least, potentially 1st line with Hughes.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Honestly, I know this is where differences in opinion would lie, but for me I would use the 3 picks to get more surefire picks and not try to gamble on any of them. Thus, out of choices between Holloway, Gunler, and Perrault I would choose Holloway. Definitely has the lowest ceiling but has by far the highest floor.

Leave the high risk gambling for later rounds.

Actually scratch that I would rather try to trade that 3rd pick for a roster d-man if possible, but that's easier said than done.

I agree with you on Holloway but disagree on trading a first-round pick for a "roster d-man". The last thing the Devils need is another space-filler on D, and they're not getting a top-2 guy for the 20th pick. Better off signing a UFA defenseman and keeping that pick. There is no defenseman I have heard in trade talk who is more of what the Devils need than Brendan Dillon. And I don't see what's wrong with bringing back Andy Greene for one more year. Then I trade Will Butcher for a guy who can actually defend like Brayden McNabb (and add a 2nd round pick in the process) and I have a blueline which is actually competitive.

Dillon-Severson
McNabb-Subban
Greene-Smith