2020/21 Roster Thread IV: A New Hope

[Tripod]

I will train @Captain Dave Poulin's chickens to attack and maul anyone who suggests trading for another left handed defenseman.

You wouldn't trade Laughton for Dermott?

That will eat at you....the chance to trade Laughts.

 

[Starat327]

You mean the Stecher who posted E +/- of -11.9, -6.1, -7.2, -3.4 his first four seasons?
Yes, he's 4th in minutes on Detroit, of course, Marc Staal is 5th. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

It's just a question of which trash you prefer.

You're right, his -7.2 and -3.9 are bad over the last two years.

Let's check Haggs....-14.3(!), -4.9.

Assuming these are both 'trash' as you say, one of these is some junk mail you threw in the bin. The other is chicken scraps you forgot you left in the trash can when you were making dinner last week.

One of these days, you're going to realize that when it comes to your bottom tier players, the margins are what counts. You're always going to rely on your stars and top tier players to win you the game. You want to be able to rely on your lower tier players to not give the game away...something Hagg does on a consistent basis.

 

[Appleyard]

 

[Prongo]

I don’t think handiness means as much as people around the boards put on it. Vince Dunn would be a sizable upgrade to this defense. They are “hoping” for a 1st rounder which means they already know that’s out of the question. Nobody is moving that especially for a guy who seems to be on his way out with the organization.

2nd rounder? That even seems slightly high? Fans are always going to offer above the market for the player but I think a 3rd rounder and a top 8/12 prospect could be a good move. Or maybe a player like Rubstov that might need the change of scenery to get things going. (You could probably squeeze a 2nd rounder out of me if I absolutely needed to but they would need to take a body back)

Also flyers are up to the max in contracts so a body would have to go in any move if that is accurate.

 

[BritainStix]

You're right, his -7.2 and -3.9 are bad over the last two years.

Let's check Haggs....-14.3(!), -4.9.

Assuming these are both 'trash' as you say, one of these is some junk mail you threw in the bin. The other is chicken scraps you forgot you left in the trash can when you were making dinner last week.

One of these days, you're going to realize that when it comes to your bottom tier players, the margins are what counts. You're always going to rely on your stars and top tier players to win you the game. You want to be able to rely on your lower tier players to not give the game away...something Hagg does on a consistent basis.

But why replace trash with trash. Whats the point. Surely spending assets to find a player who can actually do the thing you suggested bottom pairing players should do is the better option?

 

[TCTC]

I don’t think handiness means as much as people around the boards put on it. Vince Dunn would be a sizable upgrade to this defense. They are “hoping” for a 1st rounder which means they already know that’s out of the question. Nobody is moving that especially for a guy who seems to be on his way out with the organization.

2nd rounder? That even seems slightly high? Fans are always going to offer above the market for the player but I think a 3rd rounder and a top 8/12 prospect could be a good move. Or maybe a player like Rubstov that might need the change of scenery to get things going. (You could probably squeeze a 2nd rounder out of me if I absolutely needed to but they would need to take a body back)

Also flyers are up to the max in contracts so a body would have to go in any move if that is accurate.

As a rental he would be a nice upgrade for our 3rd pair. But why would the Blues be sellers at the deadline? They probably rather keep him as their own rental.

 

[flyersnorth]

I don’t think handiness means as much as people around the boards put on it. Vince Dunn would be a sizable upgrade to this defense. They are “hoping” for a 1st rounder which means they already know that’s out of the question. Nobody is moving that especially for a guy who seems to be on his way out with the organization.

2nd rounder? That even seems slightly high? Fans are always going to offer above the market for the player but I think a 3rd rounder and a top 8/12 prospect could be a good move. Or maybe a player like Rubstov that might need the change of scenery to get things going. (You could probably squeeze a 2nd rounder out of me if I absolutely needed to but they would need to take a body back)

Also flyers are up to the max in contracts so a body would have to go in any move if that is accurate.

Definitely don't check the Twitterverse for opinions on Dunn.

Blues fans would gladly drive him to the airport.

 

[dats81]

I don’t think handiness means as much as people around the boards put on it. Vince Dunn would be a sizable upgrade to this defense. They are “hoping” for a 1st rounder which means they already know that’s out of the question. Nobody is moving that especially for a guy who seems to be on his way out with the organization.

2nd rounder? That even seems slightly high? Fans are always going to offer above the market for the player but I think a 3rd rounder and a top 8/12 prospect could be a good move. Or maybe a player like Rubstov that might need the change of scenery to get things going. (You could probably squeeze a 2nd rounder out of me if I absolutely needed to but they would need to take a body back)

Also flyers are up to the max in contracts so a body would have to go in any move if that is accurate.

He is a useful player who got to learn the NHL game with one of the top teams in the league and that is why one would probably have to overpay to some degree.
I suspect the Blues rather keep him as insurance in a condensed season rather than giving him away now for just a 3rd... unless ownership is focussing on shedding salary, which we cannot know.

Fletcher should definitely make a call.

 

[Appleyard]

But why replace trash with trash. Whats the point. Surely spending assets to find a player who can actually do the thing you suggested bottom pairing players should do is the better option?

Stecher is okay. Nothing special.

But looking at the raw stats is disingenuous as well.

Hagg has played on a good team.
Stecher on a bad team.

Expected +/- is the same as +/- in some ways in that it can be skewed by being on an awful team.

When we examine relative stats over careers:

Stecher: +1.56 ExGF Rel, -0.01 ExGF Rel
Hagg: -9.08 ExGF Rel, -0.35 ExGF Rel

That alongside his micro-stats (where Stecher is good everywhere apart from at his own blue-line) would indicate that Stecher is a pretty good 3rd pairing guy... like a slight net positive over his career when you account for his 5v5 scoring too.

 

[TCTC]

Definitely don't check the Twitterverse for opinions on Dunn.

Blues fans would gladly drive him to the airport.

He had an underwhelming season last year and that's probably why many are skeptical about his long term future on the team. He reminds me a lot of Sanheim.

 

[Starat327]

But why replace trash with trash. Whats the point. Surely spending assets to find a player who can actually do the thing you suggested bottom pairing players should do is the better option?

This assumes Stecher is trash, in which he isnt. He's actually a capable bottom pairing D, he was just playing on an utterly trash team in Vancouver.

Ignoring that fallacy, though...If there's no cost to acquire, and you can upgrade, why not? Trade Hagg to a team, sign Stecher to his salary. You a) upgrade your roster and b) acquire an asset (whatever you can get for Hagg).

Again, when it comes to bottom pair players, its about margins. I don't expect to have 3 pairings of Sanheim-Myers. But If i can get a players whose natural side is what we need, is an upgrade on what we have, and it costs me nothing but money i was going to spend anyway? Thats the literal definition of a no-brainer.

 

[Starat327]

Stecher is okay. Nothing special.

But looking at the raw stats is disingenuous as well.

Hagg has played on a good team.
Stecher on a bad team.

Expected +/- is the same as +/- in some ways in that it can be skewed by being on an awful team.

When we examine relative stats over careers:

Stecher: +1.56 ExGF Rel, -0.01 ExGF Rel
Hagg: -9.08 ExGF Rel, -0.35 ExGF Rel

That alongside his micro-stats (where Stecher is good everywhere apart from at his own blue-line) would indicate that Stecher is a pretty good 3rd pairing guy... like a slight net positive over his career when you account for his 5v5 scoring too.

Appreciate you putting that little bit together - i hadnt had enough coffee to really break into stats. I was just using the stats that were originally cited as "lol stecher bad" to prove hes better than what we have in Hagg by the same measures.

 

[C0DITH]

Appleyard, if you had to pick 3 Dmen in the league (reasonable cost of acquisition / Good adv metrics / wouldn't kill us in ED) who would you target?

 

[AdamParrot]

deadhead really thinks that Hagg is even with Stecher. That Braun is even/better player than players like Walker, Merrill, TvR, Gudas? Jesus christ. How is this even possible?

 

[AdamParrot]

Oh, Captain! My, Captain!

 

[Adam Warlock]

Hagg is a real problem. Unfortunately, he is the kinda play this org falls for and has a blind spot for. Even the best Flyers teams have always had that player. I honestly think hes regressing.

They have options for the bottom pair...i hardly think he should be a lock. Almost would rather role with with Morin-Freidman on the bottom pair at this point.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Definitely don't check the Twitterverse for opinions on Dunn.

Blues fans would gladly drive him to the airport.

He has some brain farts for sure. He might be the type of guy that doesn't translate well up the lineup unless you staple him to a true top-end partner. That would still make him a valuable piece but not as much so as if you just looked as possession metrics and microstats.

No one's great at those particular upward projections right now.

 

[deadhead]

I'd target our own prospects, LHV starts up in a week, so we'll get to see Hogberg, Wylie, Zamula and Millman and how they're progressing.
Then in April, we'll probably add York and St Ivany and maybe Attard.
Once Myers returns, we're filling the #6 spot if we can't find a combo out of Friedman, Gus, Braun and Hagg that's serviceable - not worth spending real assets.

The problem with picking up other team's trash is well, they wouldn't be available if they weren't trash for the most part. Even if they played better in the past, hitting waivers is not a good sign. And players on the trading block? Unless a team has excess talent and is looking to patch a hole elsewhere, buyer beware.

Dunn is a good example, a good offensive defenseman who is so bad defensively they're looking to dump him at 24, don't we already have one of those guys? Is it worth spending assets on another or would we be better off trying to coach up Gus?

After the St. Louis Blues lost 6-3 to the Los Angeles Kings on Sunday, head coach Craig Berube took the podium to answer questions. When asked about Vince Dunn’s tough night, he let slip some of his feelings on the defenseman’s rough night.

Gotta play better. Can’t get walked one-on-one. I dunno. We’ll keep that in house and talk to him about it.

Berube explained his reasoning even further to Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic, saying that Dunn “has to keep the game in front of him more than anything” and limit the turnovers he has been known to give up.​

 

[Starat327]

Reminder that AV also criticized Ghost and benched him for Haggs mistakes.

One day we'll learn that appeals to authority are not the way to judge players. Today is not that day.

 

[Appleyard]

Appleyard, if you had to pick 3 Dmen in the league (reasonable cost of acquisition / Good adv metrics / wouldn't kill us in ED) who would you target?

Depends what you mean by kill in expansion. There are options.

I think probably:

Savard (if he does not cost as much as he probably will... he is a #4 and maybe too expensive)
Dunn (issue is expansion... ideally want to keep him going forward)
Merrill (just really good inside own redline, good out-letter... useless in OZ)

off the top of my head would be available, are good upgrades (capable #4 level at worst) and don't really affect expansion. Merrill and Savard are expiring... Dunn? Might not get taken but if he was... not end of world depending on cost to acquire.)

Oleksiak, McCabe, TvR, Nemeth, Koekkoek would be other upcoming UFAs who are "fine" and would be upgrades.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Berube believed in his fleshy heart that Vinny was better than Couturier.

 

[Appleyard]

I'd target our own prospects, LHV starts up in a week, so we'll get to see Hogberg, Wylie, Zamula and Millman and how they're progressing.
Then in April, we'll probably add York and St Ivany and maybe Attard.
Once Myers returns, we're filling the #6 spot if we can't find a combo out of Friedman, Gus, Braun and Hagg that's serviceable - not worth spending real assets.

The problem with picking up other team's trash is well, they wouldn't be available if they weren't trash for the most part. Even if they played better in the past, hitting waivers is not a good sign. And players on the trading block? Unless a team has excess talent and is looking to patch a hole elsewhere, buyer beware.

Dunn is a good example, a good offensive defenseman who is so bad defensively they're looking to dump him at 24, don't we already have one of those guys? Is it worth spending assets on another or would we be better off trying to coach up Gus?

After the St. Louis Blues lost 6-3 to the Los Angeles Kings on Sunday, head coach Craig Berube took the podium to answer questions. When asked about Vince Dunn’s tough night, he let slip some of his feelings on the defenseman’s rough night.

Gotta play better. Can’t get walked one-on-one. I dunno. We’ll keep that in house and talk to him about it.

Berube explained his reasoning even further to Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic, saying that Dunn “has to keep the game in front of him more than anything” and limit the turnovers he has been known to give up.​

Dunn is pretty damn solid defensively. Based on how he has actually fared against NHL players. Easy minutes... but also crappy QoT, and can only play the minutes you are given.

Good metrics.
Good at his own blue-line.
Good out-letter.

2017-18: +6 Expected +/-
2018-19: +18.3 Expected +/-
2019-20: +10.9 Expected +/-



He also has a STANLEY CUP RING. So that will help us win a Cup of course due to his play-off experience and knowing how to win.


Now... I would not pay a 1st for him that is for sure.

 

[TCTC]

Dunn is pretty damn solid defensively. Based on how he has actually fared against NHL players... and not his height and perception.

Good metrics.
Good at his own blue-line.
Good out-letter.

2017-18: +6 Expected +/-
2018-19: +18.3 Expected +/-
2019-20: +10.9 Expected +/-



He also has a STANLEY CUP RING. So that will help us win a Cup of course due to his play-off experience and knowing how to win.

I wouldn't say pretty damn solid. He's ok defensively. Not nearly as bad as Gustafsson, but not great either. His problem is that the Blues just signed a better version of him in Krug and they also have Faulk.

 

[deadhead]

Dunn is 5th in ES minutes, 14:08, and on PP2.

Winnipeg wanted Provorov for Laine.

During his Hockey Night in Canada pre-game interview with Ron MacLean, Cheveldayoff said the Jets tried to address their needs on defence but were unable to do so. It’s believed that when they spoke to Philadelphia, the ask of the Flyers included
Ivan Provorov. Philly obviously wasn’t doing that, but it illustrates what both the Blue Jackets and Jets were thinking.

 

[deadhead]

If Gus had spent the last three seasons with the Blues instead of the Blackhawks, he'd probably be better defensively, problem is by the time we coach him up, the season may be over! After three years on the Blues, Dunn shouldn't be struggling this much.

The fact that Dunn seems to be regressing is not a good sign, he probably needs a change of scenery, but these kind of guys are a gamble, sometimes they turn it around, sometimes you find out they've already peaked (see MDZ). You really need to do your behind the scenes scouting, is it a bad fit, coaching conflict, lack of work ethic, lack of hockey instincts?

You don't overpay for gambles, especially with the ED coming up.