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Speculation: 2020-21 News/Rumors/Roster Thread Part II

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BigKing said:
He's always looking but I don't think he is looking for any long-term commitments to older players. With how much is left on Schmidt's contract and his current age, he would be considered an older player.

For the next two seasons, there is still ~$38MM tied up in five old players with only two of them expected to be studs and then you have Doughty still counting at $11MM for a long time. I think with the defense, they really like the Walker contract number and they will probably try to sign Roy to something similar. If they can do that and those two players solidify themselves as legit NHL'ers--along with at least one of Clague/Anderson--then I think they are in a real nice spot to go shopping next off-season. Can't forget about Bjornfot either.

I think it is important though to have a little more clarity on what the Kings have before they sign up for a contract like Schmidt's or try to sign someone like Dillon when the latter's best season is probably going to be this upcoming one that doesn't really matter RE: contending.

I do think that Blake is following a similar path to Lombardi in regards to the rebuild as far as the timeline goes. They have a lot of the same people in the organization from back then, including Hextall. Now, they are drafting differently in regards to the types of players and have a different style of play they are shooting for but I think the timeline is similar. Can't blame them for doing so because, in the end, it worked. It didn't work, however, just because they sucked and hoarded picks: DL was able to make enough of the right moves (and miss out on the wrong ones) to push things over the top. We are getting very close to the point in time when Blake will have to move into the next phase of the rebuild.

I wouldn't get too attached to all of the names in the pipeline.
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Exactly. Only a small handful of the current prospect core will actually become an NHL core. I've said this elsewhere, but statistically, one of Byfield, Turcotte, Vilardi, Kaliyev, and Bjornfot will bust or not reach potential.

Simmonds and Schenn were considered core players of the future until they were traded for Mike Richards.

Once upon a time, Lombardi had Frolov-Kopitar-Purcell penciled in as his top line of the future.

We used to factor Scott Parse into our top six of the future.

Jonathan Bernier used to be without a doubt the 100% certain goaltender of the future.

Drafting and stockpiling is relatively straightforward. Developing your prospects into actual impact NHL players is quite a bit more complicated. Tweaking your NHL roster into a Cup contender is extremely difficult.

Another way to look at it is that even if every single bluechip prospect reaches maximum potential, we *still* have some holes at D. Building a Cup contender is tough. Transitioning out of "stockpile mode" in which Blake has basically been playing with house money will be his biggest test as a GM thus far.
 
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If we recall, the cup winning teams only had like 11-13 homegrown players.

So we can dream of this in 5 years:

Kaliyev - Byfield - Fagemo
Andersson - Vilardi - Madden
Thomas - Turcotte - Kupari
Grundström - JAD - Luff(?)

Björnfot - Doughty
Anderson - Roy
Hults - Walker
Clague

Petersen
Ingham

Knowing that about half will pan out in the organization.
 
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Not even 11-13. Also depends on how you count some of them. Technically, Nolan was home grown, but, he was a marginal player, who likely could've easily been replaced on the 11-12 team. Although the guy he replaced wasn't as good, so, there's that.
 
HeadInjury said:
Do you know why most people are not that high on Luff, Wagner and Clague?

Because we've seen them play.

As more of the young guys start playing in Ontario or get a cup of coffee with the Kings, we will start to sour on some of them too.
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I left off Wagner, in part, because I think their is a good chance he gets taken in the expansion.
 
Docgonzo said:
OEL is a 29 year old with 7 years left on his contract with a NMC at 8.2 per year. That contract will take him to 36 and you think that’ll move the rebuild forward quicker? Having that plus Kopitar and Doughty once all the prospects might need new contracts?

And Tampa isn’t trading Sergachev, and if they do it’ll cost a heck of a lot. If the Sergachev situation came around 2 years from now we’d know who was expendable and who wasn’t. Right now we don’t know anything, other than Vilardi was able to play half a season in the AHL. Kaliyev, Turcotte, Byfield, Fagemo, Kupari, Vilardi are all wildcards we don’t know what they’ll end up being.
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When it comes to a guy like Sergachev you don't worry about what's happening 2 years from now. You get him and have one less variable to consider in two years.
 
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ScoreZeGoals said:
Were people ever really all that high on Luff and Wagner though?
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Agreed. But I could have referenced JJ, Forbort and Kempe instead. I'm having a hard time figuring out when was the last time a highly touted prospect has met or exceeded our collective expectations. Some might say Vilardi, but the sample size is so small. Probably Pearson.
 
HeadInjury said:
Agreed. But I could have referenced JJ, Forbort and Kempe instead. I'm having a hard time figuring out when was the last time a highly touted prospect has met or exceeded our collective expectations. Some might say Vilardi, but the sample size is so small. Probably Pearson.
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Toffoli wound up dropping off from earlier highs but he was a 2nd round pick that scored goals in the OHL and then scored goals in the NHL. Probably have to question what our collective expectations are and what are realistic expectations.

Matt Roy has probably already exceeded most everyone's expectations. MacDermid as well. I get the point though: there hasn't been a supposed impact prospect to live up to expectations in a long time but that is because they didn't really draft any after Pearson until Vilardi. Kempe has been a disappointment relative to expectations and then they didn't have a 1st round pick for two years.
 
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Reaper45 said:
I always thought Kempe’s ceiling is 2nd liner but most likely tops out as a 3rd liner. Which is what he is.
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I think his Calder Cup run with Manchester jumped him up to the point it was expected he would be a 2nd liner. Kings just had the rough 2015 season but confidence was still high in DL and the team.

I think expectations eventually settled into your description but I think they were higher than that for a little while there. It hadn't yet been proven that Lombardi no longer had the magic touch. Forget that even and look to the '18 season when he put up career best numbers that he hasn't matched in the two seasons following.
 
No Name The Nameless said:
When it comes to a guy like Sergachev you don't worry about what's happening 2 years from now. You get him and have one less variable to consider in two years.
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But you never know, McKinnon didn’t hit his stride till year 5, Pasternak year 3, Thornton year 4, Larkin year 4, M Tkachuk year 3, Point year 3, Barkov year 3, M Richards year 3.

And as much as I like Sergachev, he’s playing behind Hedman and McDonagh. If there’s a possibility Doughty is washed up, you don’t know if Sergachev can carry a D core all by himself.
 
HeadInjury said:
Agreed. But I could have referenced JJ, Forbort and Kempe instead. I'm having a hard time figuring out when was the last time a highly touted prospect has met or exceeded our collective expectations. Some might say Vilardi, but the sample size is so small. Probably Pearson.
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Not all these prospects are going to work out, its wise to temper expectations, however, our current pool isn't comparable to any of the examples you're citing.

2013-2016 all players drafted in the 1st or 2nd round with their pick # (4 drafts)


#29 Kempe
--------------------
#37 Zykov
#43 Cernak
#50 McKeown
#51 Clague
#60 Lintuniemi

That's why its "probably Pearson" because you have to go back to the 2012 draft to add him, we took him #30 and then didn't have another pick in that draft until the last pick of 4th round.

Compared to 2017-2020 (4 drafts)

#2 Byfield
#5 Turcotte
#11 Vilardi
#20 Kupari
#22 Bjornfot
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#33 Kaliyev
#35 Grans
#41 JAD
#45 Faber
#50 Fagemo
#51 Thomas

That's a massive difference in caliber of prospect.
 
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If you google him and scroll down the Habs are interested ,from the article he sounds like a good cheap option for depth
 
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