Prospect Info: 2020-2021 Senators Prospect Watch

[TheDebater]

Would it not have been "safer" to draft the prospects ranked higher anyway? Gunler, Peterka, Mysak, etc. were all still available when we drafted our guys, would they not have been considered the less risky picks since if they bust we can shrug and say that we drafted the best ranked players at the time?

I think there is more intrigue in our prospects to be honest. It actually seems Dorion and our scouts put some thought and logic behind their picks and there at least appears to be a method to their madness.

For example I am really liking the idea of drafting really young players who had good years. It would be the equivalent to drafting Jack Quinn last year if he were eligible. He may have gone 2nd or 3rd round but we would have been extremely pleased with his his D+1 season (which would have been this past season).

 

[Xspyrit]

Would it not have been "safer" to draft the prospects ranked higher anyway? Gunler, Peterka, Mysak, etc. were all still available when we drafted our guys, would they not have been considered the less risky picks since if they bust we can shrug and say that we drafted the best ranked players at the time?

I think there is more intrigue in our prospects to be honest. It actually seems Dorion and our scouts put some thought and logic behind their picks and there at least appears to be a method to their madness.

For example I am really liking the idea of drafting really young players who had good years. It would be the equivalent to drafting Jack Quinn last year if he were eligible. He may have gone 2nd or 3rd round but we would have been extremely pleased with his his D+1 season (which would have been this past season).

I don't think NHL teams care much about medias draft rankings. Through tons of scouting, discussions, interviews, etc, they make their own list and the GM follows it. He's the one with the last word.

So every NHL team has a very different ranking, you might find a bit of concensus at the top of the draft but even then. That's why we are so shocked when a team "reaches"

Brian Lee (even if he could have been better if no injuries) shows that our drafting sucked under Muckler. He might have been even higher than 9th OA on their list.

 

[Micklebot]

Would it not have been "safer" to draft the prospects ranked higher anyway? Gunler, Peterka, Mysak, etc. were all still available when we drafted our guys, would they not have been considered the less risky picks since if they bust we can shrug and say that we drafted the best ranked players at the time?

I think there is more intrigue in our prospects to be honest. It actually seems Dorion and our scouts put some thought and logic behind their picks and there at least appears to be a method to their madness.

For example I am really liking the idea of drafting really young players who had good years. It would be the equivalent to drafting Jack Quinn last year if he were eligible. He may have gone 2nd or 3rd round but we would have been extremely pleased with his his D+1 season (which would have been this past season).

Strategically speaking, targetting guys that are really young and guys that are overagers could be a good way to find guys that are being systemically undervalued.

 

[TheDebater]

I don't think NHL teams care much about medias draft rankings. Through tons of scouting, discussions, interviews, etc, they make their own list and the GM follows it. He's the one with the last word.

So every NHL team has a very different ranking, you might find a bit of concensus at the top of the draft but even then. That's why we are so shocked when a team "reaches"

Brian Lee (even if he could have been better if no injuries) shows that our drafting sucked under Muckler. He might have been even higher than 9th OA on their list.

It is not so much the "media" ranking but experts like Mackenzie have credibility when it comes to the draft now. He bases his rankings on interviews and discussions with actual NHL scouts from around the league.

I get that every team will see prospects differently, but looking back at past drafts and seeing where the experts ranked certain players that dropped and ended up being good NHL players makes you think twice about not trusting their opinions.

 

[Xspyrit]

It is not so much the "media" ranking but experts like Mackenzie have credibility when it comes to the draft now. He bases his rankings on interviews and discussions with actual NHL scouts from around the league.

I get that every team will see prospects differently, but looking back at past drafts and seeing where the experts ranked certain players that dropped and ended up being good NHL players makes you think twice about not trusting their opinions.

And that's why MacKenzie is a much better source than several others in that regard, because he's working on getting the "pulse" from NHL teams, some kind of a rank average of where teams see a prospect.

Every team is going to have lot of hits and misses. Personally, the Sens track record since 2008 gives me enough confidence in them to do a better job than the "average NHL team". Hopefully this year we're one of the teams that did the best job.

 

[ChurchOfAlfie]

Feels weird to post actual hockey updates in this thread again:

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Feels weird to post actual hockey updates in this thread again:

So he let in 3 on 24 and 0 on 30... sounds like Gustavsson

 

[aragorn]

It seems that Ottawa did not draft by BPA in the 2nd rd & decided on the kind of players they wanted & went after them. Given the guys they did draft it's pretty obvious why they didn't draft Peterka, Mysak or Gunler, they are building a bigger, tougher team that can compete in the playoffs.

 

[Xspyrit]

It seems that Ottawa did not draft by BPA in the 2nd rd & decided on the kind of players they wanted & went after them. Given the guys they did draft it's pretty obvious why they didn't draft Peterka, Mysak or Gunler, they are building a bigger, tougher team that can compete in the playoffs.

I have no idea how could anyone make that statement, unless you work for the organization and saw that the GM didn't respect the BPA list they worked on for months.

Not that it wasn't already know before but heard an interview from Marc Bergevin recently that had to address this. There was a lot of whining as to why the Habs didn't draft a Quebec player. Trevor Timmins, Marc Bergevin and even medias received a lot of swearing and bashing

 

[aragorn]

I have no idea how could anyone make that statement, unless you work for the organization and saw that the GM didn't respect the BPA list they worked on for months.

Not that it wasn't already know before but heard an interview from Marc Bergevin recently that had to address this. There was a lot of whining as to why the Habs didn't draft a Quebec player. Trevor Timmins, Marc Bergevin and even medias received a lot of swearing and bashing

Does the best player on their list mean the best player available? Most think they they reached on at least two players, one of which ( the goalie) wasn't even ranked. And three were over agers who I assume are late bloomers. It seemed more like they were drafting a certain kind of player that they wanted or were looking for rather than BPA.

Of course, we don't know if other teams may have had those players on their lists too, but the goalie & Engstrand sure seemed like a reach to me when there were a number of players still on the board that were ranked much higher. Even Jarventi was a surprise although where he was picked it's possible someone else had him as high, he does look like he could be a decent player. You didn't think that some of those picks were out of left field?

 

[Xspyrit]

Does the best player on their list mean the best player available? Most think they they reached on at least two players, one of which ( the goalie) wasn't even ranked. And three were over agers who I assume are late bloomers. It seemed more like they were drafting a certain kind of player that they wanted or were looking for rather than BPA.

Of course, we don't know if other teams may have had those players on their lists too, but the goalie & Engstrand sure seemed like a reach to me when there were a number of players still on the board that were ranked much higher. Even Jarventi was a surprise although where he was picked although it's possible someone else had him as high, he does look like he could be a decent player.

That's exactly the point. "BPA" is entirely subjective and varies from team to team

That doesn't make a team more right or wrong that another team, but they all draft based on their own BPA list. That's what Maxim Lapierre, Stephane Leroux, Guillaume Latendresse and many other people from the medias were also reiterating

Their point was that the Habs didn't NOT draft a Quebec player because they are avoiding them at all costs. They went with their BPA list

A very simple example, some teams would have gone with Byfield 2nd OA like the Kings did, some other teams would have went with Stutzle. No matter who you think was the BPA for 2nd OA, it just highlights your preference and personal belief. As to who is right or wrong, only time will tell.

Now of course, every team values hockey players attributes differently, size, speed, hands, shot, leadership, character, etc, they draft a player as a whole and to what they think he could become (not at the time of the draft). It's possible that the Sens are drafting based on putting too much value on certain attributes and they are wrong doing that, but that doesn't mean they didn't go with their BPA.

Like I said, they might be right or wrong but it's impossible to say they didn't go BPA as there is no concensus for BPA. Drafting is no exact science at all. It's like for art, it lies in the eye of the beholder

You didn't think that some of those picks were out of left field?

I can't anwer that, I really don't have the expertise to answer that. The goalie in the 3rd "looked like a reach" and even mentionned it in the thread but obviously, they are high on the kid and expect/envision him to become a legit prospect. Who knows how many teams had their eyes on him. We have a very very small pourcentage of the information.

Again, there is no concensus. "Scouting" enough prospects that would be worthy for the 1st round is already a lot of time and effort. I don't really go beyond that, I have very little scouting info regarding other prospects that could go in other rounds. Somebody claiming to have a valuable BPA list for all rounds is either dishonest or is working on it full time. I mean, NHL teams take months and several full time jobs to be able to make that BPA list.

I use to not think like that, but with time and experience my understanding of how it works has evolved somewhat.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

It seems that Ottawa did not draft by BPA in the 2nd rd & decided on the kind of players they wanted & went after them. Given the guys they did draft it's pretty obvious why they didn't draft Peterka, Mysak or Gunler, they are building a bigger, tougher team that can compete in the playoffs.

I agree; particularly later in the draft. they had some sort of plan and went with the guys they thought could fill a slot in the plan , at least in Belleville to start sooner than later.

I like the Stutzle, Sanderson, Grieg, Jarventie picks; I think they could be considered BPA ... on their list;

The Kleven, Sokolov, Engstrand, Reinhardt picks were definitely going after a profile vs BPA.

The unranked goalie at 71 is a head scratcher for me considering the goalie prospects they have and the 1st year eligibles left on the board..

 

[aragorn]

I agree; particularly later in the draft. they had some sort of plan and went with the guys they thought could fill a slot in the plan , at least in Belleville to start sooner than later.

I like the Stutzle, Sanderson, Grieg, Jarventie picks; I think they could be considered BPA ... on their list;

The Kleven, Sokolov, Engstrand, Reinhardt picks were definitely going after a profile vs BPA.

The unranked goalie at 71 is a head scratcher for me considering the goalie prospects they have and the 1st year eligibles left on the board..

That's why I think when people say BPA it's a little silly. In this draft there was one consensus 1st OA BPA in Lafreniere, then two guys who could go either way, so BPA could have been either depending on who was drafting.

Then the next 4 to 12 guys were fairly close, most thought Drysdale was the better defenceman & the Sens took Sanderson, it's all subjective based on your scouts & who they have on their list that they want to draft next. Quinn went before Rossi even though Rossi had more pts, so was he the BPA or was Rossi who again most on here preferred, it's all subjective.

It's all based on who the scouts want where & not necessarily the consensus BPA. Was Lodin the BPA? I guess we'll see how some of these guys pan out that they reached on, hopefully, they turn into players & not a wasted pick.

 

[BondraTime]

BPA is whoever the Sens have highest on their list. Their list is developed based on characteristics and player types they want. I'd imagine Kleven was pretty easily in their top 30 on their lists, and likely the best player they had, and didn't want to lose their BPA.

BPA here is basically just who is the highest ranked player left on the board.

The two the Leafs drafted with those traded picks, probably not even on the Sens list, or on it in a realistic range. Likewise for a ton of the guys many would have rather drafted at 44.

Leafs have a player type they rank higher than others, that coincides with what many posters here go for, pure skill. That's why they always get highly praised here, even though they draft multiple 5'8, 5'9, 5'10 guys every year. Sens value pro style players, with less skill than those purely skilled guys.

I mean, out of 17 skaters picked for the Leafs the past 2 drafts, only 3 were 6ft or taller. 7 guys were 5'9 or shorter. I'd be way more upset at our drafting if we went that route.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That's why I think when people say BPA it's a little silly. In this draft there was one consensus 1st OA BPA in Lafreniere, then two guys who could go either way, so BPA could have been either depending on who was drafting.

Then the next 4 to 12 guys were fairly close, most thought Drysdale was the better defenceman & the Sens took Sanderson, it's all subjective based on your scouts & who they have on their list that they want to draft next. Quinn went before Rossi even though Rossi had more pts, so was he the BPA or was Rossi who again most on here preferred, it's all subjective.

It's all based on who the scouts want where & not necessarily the consensus BPA. Was Lodin the BPA? I guess we'll see how some of these guys pan out that they reached on, hopefully, they turn into players & not a wasted pick.

BPA is a bit of a misconception.

I think Carolina follows more a "BPA" vs type of player draft model as do the Maple Leafs and the Kings

 

[Xspyrit]

That's why I think when people say BPA it's a little silly. In this draft there was one consensus 1st OA BPA in Lafreniere, then two guys who could go either way, so BPA could have been either depending on who was drafting.

Then the next 4 to 12 guys were fairly close, most thought Drysdale was the better defenceman & the Sens took Sanderson, it's all subjective based on your scouts & who they have on their list that they want to draft next. Quinn went before Rossi even though Rossi had more pts, so was he the BPA or was Rossi who again most on here preferred, it's all subjective.

It's all based on who the scouts want where & not necessarily the consensus BPA. Was Lodin the BPA? I guess we'll see how some of these guys pan out that they reached on, hopefully, they turn into players & not a wasted pick.

So now you're saying the same thing it seems

BPA is entirely subjective, it's a personal list based on personal beliefs. Everyone will have a different one

Teams have several employees in their scouting department, they make a committee BPA list based on everyone's scouting/work, expertise, opinions, etc. The GM and Chief Amateur Scout have the last word.

Medias and bloggers also make BPA lists, usually it's a few employees giving their opinion.

A source like Bob McKenzie is very good because it's an attempt to get a real pulse of NHL teams and their BPA lists.

Based on your own BPA list (do you really have a list past the first round?) and based on other lists you saw left and right, there is some draft picks that you didn't like. It's normal

 

[Micklebot]

I agree; particularly later in the draft. they had some sort of plan and went with the guys they thought could fill a slot in the plan , at least in Belleville to start sooner than later.

I like the Stutzle, Sanderson, Grieg, Jarventie picks; I think they could be considered BPA ... on their list;

The Kleven, Sokolov, Engstrand, Reinhardt picks were definitely going after a profile vs BPA.

The unranked goalie at 71 is a head scratcher for me considering the goalie prospects they have and the 1st year eligibles left on the board..

If we had drafted Sokolov back in 2018 when he first was eligible, he'd likely be our 3rd best prospect from that draft year. Looking at 2018 draftees who played last season in the CHL, he just put up a more productive season than Foudy or Dellandrea who were both 1st round picks and Serron Noel who was an early 2nd round pick. Better production than Benoit-Groulx and similar to Akil Thomas. People would be thrilled if we got a player like that instead of Tychonick, yet we question if Sokolov was BPA when he was selected with a pick 13 spots deeper in a draft.

I honestly don't think we traded off much in terms of ceiling with him either, yes he is 2 years older, but he had a clear weakness (skating) that is addressable and which he is already taking tremendous strides in improving. I get having different preferences at 61, but imo, Sokolov was a really underrated pick.

 

[aragorn]

BPA is a bit of a misconception.

I think Carolina follows more a "BPA" vs type of player draft model as do the Maple Leafs and the Kings

Does it also not seem strange that when Boucher was coaching this team that PD brought in completely different kind of players than what he is bringing in now with DJ Smith & Jack Capuana as the coaches? While watching the draft I had a suspicion that DJ was making the picks & not Dorion. lol

 

[Alf Silfversson]

I agree; particularly later in the draft. they had some sort of plan and went with the guys they thought could fill a slot in the plan , at least in Belleville to start sooner than later.

I like the Stutzle, Sanderson, Grieg, Jarventie picks; I think they could be considered BPA ... on their list;

The Kleven, Sokolov, Engstrand, Reinhardt picks were definitely going after a profile vs BPA.

The unranked goalie at 71 is a head scratcher for me considering the goalie prospects they have and the 1st year eligibles left on the board..

Agreed 100%. I like the first 4 picks and if they hit the rest will be a) forgotten or b) a real bonus.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Does it also not seem strange that when Boucher was coaching this team that PD brought in completely different kind of players than what he is bringing in now with DJ Smith & Jack Capuana as the coaches? While watching the draft I had a suspicion that DJ was making the picks & not Dorion. lol

Absolutely. It's really weird.

I just don't like how under both scenarios they bring in favourites who are mediocre at best.

Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Does it also not seem strange that when Boucher was coaching this team that PD brought in completely different kind of players than what he is bringing in now with DJ Smith & Jack Capuana as the coaches? While watching the draft I had a suspicion that DJ was making the picks & not Dorion. lol

He talks to players and such but has no say in how they draft

 

[aragorn]

He talks to players and such but has no say in how they draft

I was a joking, but I'm sure they talk to every member of the hockey organization who has NHL experience & get their take including coaches & players. It would be doing their due diligence to get input from everyone before making any decisions & making their lists.

 

[DrEasy]

I agree; particularly later in the draft. they had some sort of plan and went with the guys they thought could fill a slot in the plan , at least in Belleville to start sooner than later.

I like the Stutzle, Sanderson, Grieg, Jarventie picks; I think they could be considered BPA ... on their list;

The Kleven, Sokolov, Engstrand, Reinhardt picks were definitely going after a profile vs BPA.

The unranked goalie at 71 is a head scratcher for me considering the goalie prospects they have and the 1st year eligibles left on the board..

I don't think that's necessarily the wrong way to go about a draft anyway. Early on you want to pick the players that are more or less the consensus (because they won't be around if you like them and don't draft them then), and later on you go for players you really like regardless of the consensus. At least that's how I draft my fantasy teams.

I agree about the goalie though, not sure why they liked him so much they had to draft him there.

 

[aragorn]

It almost seems to me that they filled several needs with this draft, They had little choice with Stutzle who fell to them & was the consensus next best player & he does fill a need at centre or LW for a high skilled playmaker & puck handler. Sanderson fills a need for more size on the backend who can anchor that 2nd pairing & play a lot of minutes on that left side behind Chabot for the next decade. Kleven does the same thing for the 3rd pairing left side IMO, he brings size, grit & some meanness that is missing from most of their D & can shutdown big lines & play on the PK.

Sokolov, Javartie & maybe even Reinhardt bring some size & scoring ability to the forward group who could be NHL ready sooner rather than later & seem to fit a mold that DJ likes & will play. It will be very interesting to follow these three to see if they have any real stars here, but the leading contenders to be stars IMO are Sokolov & Javartie. Both seem to have the intangibles to be point producers with the right linemates & Ottawa has several good centres that could compliment their games. Javartie could compliment a playmaking centre & Sokolov could be the playmaker on a line that lacks one. IMO they got 4 or 5 very good players from this draft & we'll wait & see if any others emerge.

 

[R2010]

BPA is whoever the Sens have highest on their list. Their list is developed based on characteristics and player types they want. I'd imagine Kleven was pretty easily in their top 30 on their lists, and likely the best player they had, and didn't want to lose their BPA.

BPA here is basically just who is the highest ranked player left on the board.

The two the Leafs drafted with those traded picks, probably not even on the Sens list, or on it in a realistic range. Likewise for a ton of the guys many would have rather drafted at 44.

Leafs have a player type they rank higher than others, that coincides with what many posters here go for, pure skill. That's why they always get highly praised here, even though they draft multiple 5'8, 5'9, 5'10 guys every year. Sens value pro style players, with less skill than those purely skilled guys.

I mean, out of 17 skaters picked for the Leafs the past 2 drafts, only 3 were 6ft or taller. 7 guys were 5'9 or shorter. I'd be way more upset at our drafting if we went that route.

It's also the type of player they pick as well. They're usually going for smaller 5'9s - we're not talking Rossi's. They're picking guys designed for regular season success or for outscoring the opponent but a good defense can shut down a good offense as they continually seem to have to relearn every year. Need guys who can grind it out.