I said "
4-0 to Austria" generally, meaning that we were the same level back then as juniors as we are today as seniors.
Here is some examples:
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/341/IHM341906_74_3_0.pdf
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/246/IHM246904_74_8_0.pdf
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/246/IHM246903_74_3_0.pdf
It wasn't like we were a top division team, then we just fell to the 20th place once and then we're back to top again next season, right? We were a D1A or D1B level team for bunch of seasons and that's what those players are today, a D1A team. Yeah, probably 0-4 to Austria wasn't fair enough but generally no surprises we finally got relegated.
Now, I guess having our u18 teams playing at top division three years in a row we can expect some rise in seniors in 5 or 7 years, can't we?
First of all, the WJC-18 pales in comparison to the WJC-20 as a proximate estimate of strength because the rosters are more representative future teams because the competition is closer. So even speaking of the WJC-18 isn't making a particularly strong argument. Even insofar as we speak of the WJC-18, as I mentioned prior, you were there 9 years out of the 20, 7 coming prior to this recent ascent. Those were the days of Stefanovich, Revenko, Korobov, Gavrus, Lopachuk, etc. You seem really caught up in the fact that one, single year, you got relegated to D1B, and only at the U18 level. Being relegated to D1B at the U18 level for one single year in 2011 is not what took the program down. Only sustained excellence or sustained success can improve or weaken a program, and Belarus' sustained success over that period of time was greater than Austria, greater than France, greater even than other countries like Norway (who you beat in 2017 but finished ranked under). By the logic of unrestricted junior translation, Belarus should be ahead of each of those programs.
Secondly, you're a bit confused. The WC top division is 16 teams. The WJC and WJC-18 top division are 10 teams. They don't have the same number of teams. The D1A division of each are 6 teams. So to be a "D1A junior team" is to be a Top WC Senior team. To be a D1B Junior team is to be a D1A Senior team. If you actually look at the teams playing in the WC D1A, their junior teams are in fact usually D1B, sometimes D2A teams. The translation from junior to senior divisions is a false equivalency.
Finally, to your final question again, not necessarily. Look at the team which beat both of us, France. France beat us by a lot, beat Belarus 6-2. They also beat Belarus in 2017, so their victory was not a fluke, like you might argue Austria's was. Let's construct France's lineup from the 6-2 game. From the 2010-2011 season until the 2015-16 season France played 5 of their 6 WJCs in the D1B division. The one year they made it up to D1A, Belarus beat them senseless 9-3. Many of their core players came from this time frame, Jordan Perret, Anthony Rech, Valentin Claireaux, Guillame Leclerc, Florian Chakiachvili. This should make them a D1B team. A year before their descent, the 2008-09 WJC, they played Belarus. This team had the current stars of the team. The guys who really beat up Belarus last year, Stephane Da Costa, Yohann Auvitu, Antoine Roussel (not there last year), Loic Lamperier. Belarus beat that French team. Beat them on the backs of Sergei Drozd and Igor Revenko. Fast forward to the 2016-17 WJC D1A in Bremerhaven. France had one of their current rising stars, Alexandre Texier, and two of their Senior blueliners, Thomas Thiry and Hugo Gallet. Again, Belarus won that game. Their key players were Ruslan Valischuk and Andrei Belevich. For 10 years, Belarus was ahead of France at the World Juniors, and it is still true today.
If juniors translated in any way directly to senior hockey, not only would Belarus have manhandled Austria, they would have destroyed France, easily. At every stage from the French U20 players who are now 29 like Da Costa to the French players who are now 19 like Texier, Belarus either beat them or were divisions above them. France's juniors did even worse than Austria's. France should be a D1A senior team. Not only are they not, but they're a strong Top Division team. They finished above both Norway and Belarus in 2017, and they finished above Austria and Belarus in 2018. Translation to Senior matters.
With the benefit of hindsight it's easy to say that we can say Drozd, Revenko, Lopachuk, Ambrozheichik, Karaban, Gavrus, the list goes on, were not going to be good players. But if I asked you in 2013 after you just finished beating France senseless at the WJC, or in 2016 when you were in the top division of the WJC and France was the D1B WJC, or any of the years in between where you finished top 3 every year in the D1A and France was consistently in the D1B, you would not have told me that Belarus was going to be unable to beat France 4-5 years later in the WC, and would be relegated by Austria to the D1A. Certainly there is some correlation between junior success and senior success, but if the players don't translate well to senior hockey you may not even make gains enough to catch Austria, much less a stronger team like Latvia, whose recent golden generation 94-97 will likely be around at least until 2026-27. And to do that, there need to be more playing opportunities in Dinamo Minsk for young players.
Evidently having an HF thread makes you a serious prospect now.
))
