OT: 2019 Weather Thread

[oobga]

Greenhouse gas draw-down likely only going to come about due to peak-oil. Too bad those projections didn't hit a decade ago.

Obama likes to brag that shale oil was unlocked under him which brought on a whole new wave of production. And bonus, right now in the Permian they are flaring natural gas like mad, at a rate of over 100 million tons of CO2 equivalent a year (more than the cap emissions we put on oilsands) for their 3m per day barrels of shale oil (less than Canada's production). They literally have nowhere to put all the nat gas that comes with the oil and are just burning it away. And there are loads more emissions and pollution involved in shale with the drilling, fracking, pressure pumping, transporting loads of water and sand, and then transporting the water away to pump it underground to make some sweet earthquakes. Good job Obama.

Best part is, a lot of that shale production has to be shipped off to places like China because US refineries don't want it, and are tuned for making a wider range of products from medium and heavy grades. So, more fun emissions to transport it all. Don't expect any environmentalists to show up and complain though. You can get 10+ years in prison in Texas is you do anything to interfere with a pipeline constructon. nah, not worth it, better just go like everyone else to Canada, the one place in the world that heavily relies on selling oil for revenue and to prop up currency where we allow people from around the world to totally screw with our industry. USA, jail time or dragged away by miliary, middle east, you probably will never be heard from again, Russia, about the same. Venezuela, Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico...lol, nice knowing you. Norway did well of course, but are also lucky with the access to the sea for easy transport, the super stable and safe proximity, the low and stable population, and how other countries generously acted like failed test cases for them that they could learn from.

 

[Cloned]

Greenhouse gas draw-down likely only going to come about due to peak-oil. Too bad those projections didn't hit a decade ago.

I personally think we’ve already entered a state of self perpetuating irreversible warming.

I think a certain degree of it was independent of human activity, however human activity has accelerated the process and eliminated the possibility of recovery.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

I personally think we’ve already entered a state of self perpetuating irreversible warming.

I think a certain degree of it was independent of human activity, however human activity has accelerated the process and eliminated the possibility of recovery.

Why would you think that? What specifically is irreversible?

 

[syz]

A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

The Great Lakes and all of Canada were under glaciers and over time they receded Only then was Canada habitable. This warming will continue whether you hold your breath or not.

It is as if a glass was full of ice and a bit of water. Over time the ice melts and the water ends up more prevalent. Then the ice melts faster. Same with the Earth. It's warmer now and will warm faster because the Great Lakes are no longer a Glacier. That's basic chemistry.

As for the fear mongering over fires, its silly because the flames are mostly due to poor forest management. The mantra for many years was, "Fire, put it out!" This is one of the main reasons for the beetle infestations and fires. Too much old growth forest. B.C now does controlled burns to mitigate these problems.

Add to that the steep Klein cuts to Northern Firefighting and you have what you have. A good many experienced people were replaced with low cost rookies or had their offices closed. It was one of the reasons Slave Lake burned.

The major flaw in your argument though is that this will happen every year. That's pretty good because fires do happen every year. Way back in time. Elk actually need new growth fire to thrive.

As for the size of fires, well there is only so much old growth tinder out there. It takes decades to grow back to where it might be able to burn again so... and if you have flown over the great forest it isn't so great anymore.

I'd describe posts like this as having "a little knowledge" and would agree that such a thing is indeed dangerous.

At no point did anybody say that forest fires should not happen or that forest fires would not happen if not for climate change. Yes, these things happen in nature. The point being made is that climate change is acting as a multiplier. The same can be said about the influx of tropical storms--it turns out that once ocean temperatures and levels both rise a bit that naturally occurring storms suddenly begin to turn more unnatural with regards to their strength and in their ability to reach further inland.

The whole "it's just a natural process" schtick is also entirely petulant in the face of like 98% of the published data agreeing that, again, said natural process is being pushed to "uninhabitable" territory as a result of man-made emissions--or in other words: that "this warming" is not natural. There is the remaining 2%, but it turns out they're all Koch funded goons like Patrick Moore, and at some point you need to ask yourself if it's worth valuing the opinions of somebody who drinks RoundUp.

Also ngl "don't worry eventually there won't be anything left to burn" isn't exactly a great source of solace.

 

[Oilhawks]

Who ever would have guessed this would turn into an argument thread?

 

[Cloned]

Why would you think that? What specifically is irreversible?

Is global warming irreversible?

 

[Llamamoto]

Is global warming irreversible?

Irreversible is a misleading term. Even if we make dramatic changes, the world temperature/ice levels will likely never get back to how they were, but severe changes can stop them from making it worse.

 

[Cloned]

Irreversible is a misleading term. Even if we make dramatic changes, the world temperature/ice levels will likely never get back to how they were, but severe changes can stop them from making it worse.

I just don't think it's reversible from a practical, comprehendible standpoint.

The depth of change required from a societal, economic and technological perspective combined with the length of time required for recovery even if such a change is implemented immediately makes recovery irreversible, if not by definition then by application.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Is global warming irreversible?

That article itself states that global warming is reversible, just on a large time scale in the context of modern humans, which in the scope of the earth's history is little more than a blink of the eye. Earth's CO2 levels have been far higher than they presently are and Earth has managed to bring them back down (you need to look at a graph that is on the 100's of million of years timescale opposed to the 100's of thousands of years timescale), while that may be too large a task with current human consumption, the possibility does exist of us making ourselves extinct and if that were to happen I'm sure Earth would right itself fairly quickly.

In the absence of us going extinct I do believe in human ingenuity when it becomes undeniably clear to everyone that we are the cause of the next mass extinction event. I believe we will have a strong alternative to fossil fuels within the next 50 years and I also believe we will have mastered 3D printing meat which will also have a huge effect on reducing gases that contribute to global warming. There are also potential carbon sequestration technologies and the possibility of genetically engineering plants to become more efficient at absorbing CO2 and spitting out O2. If we really want to get serious end the whole profit model economy where planned obsolescence greatly drives our rate of consumption. Most discussion also focus exclusively on reducing carbon dioxide, but there are more greenhouses gases that we can target,

 

[harpoon]

I'd describe posts like this as having "a little knowledge" and would agree that such a thing is indeed dangerous

I think the point you are missing is that collectively the human race has very little knowledge on the subject of climate change. Like drop in the bucket level. There are factors that we can all agree damage the environment (fossil fuel, plastics, globalism run amok, rampant selfish consumerism etc) but there are also factors that even the best scientists are ignorant of. We like to think we are such an intelligent species that can solve our own problems. Nature just laughs and ticks along her own timeline. I agree with those who say it’s probably too late for humans to change. Even if we could somehow get all the countries, all the companies, and all the people to agree to shift to the greenest possible way of life, I am skeptical that it would make an appreciable impact. The rock keeps hurtling on, and Genie doesn’t go back into the bottle.

 

[McDraekke]

The people playing semantics in this thread are being a bit odd.

Person 1: “Global Warming is irreversible.”
Person 2: “Well, on a level that is beyond the scope and likely lifetime of human beings, maybe, but at some point nature will recover, so it’s not “irreversible.””

Can we maybe just agree that when discussing worldwide potentially extinction level events that most people are discussing in terms of impacts to human life as we know it?

In other news, this thread is alarming to me that there are so many people still in denial about our impact on the global environment. How many people in these forums talk about not believing the mouth pieces of the Oilers, saying “well, we’ve heard that one before, but they are just placating the fans, saying what we want to hear so that we’ll keep buying their merchandise?” But when it comes to some of the biggest mouth pieces of the corporate world, there are still tons of people who for some reason (because it’s what they want to hear I guess) believe the small number of powerful people ignoring and trying everything in their power to deny what 98% (using someone else’s number here) of research is telling us - and wouldn’t you know it, most of those small powerful people have a lot to lose if the general public and the world starts to get on board with green alternatives. When it comes to entertainment, which at the end of the day is frivolous - we are so discerning that we won’t believe what the people who stand to make money off of us tell us, but when it comes to the actual survival of the human race on the planet, we believe the people who stand to make money off of us instead of the neutral party scientists who are working their asses off to try and prove time and time again that we are killing our own environment and atmosphere? Lol f***ing backwards.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

This thread took an odd turn.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Who ever would have guessed this would turn into an argument thread?

It’s Taylor Halls fault.

 

[oobga]

This thread took an odd turn.

Weather makes people crazy man

 

[Drivesaitl]

This thread took an odd turn.

Indeed. We need more smoke to cover up all the sidebars.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Indeed. We need more smoke to cover up all the sidebars.

No one needs more smoke

 

[joestevens29]

Indeed. We need more smoke to cover up all the sidebars.

It's already back in some parts of the City.

Really can't remember if I left my windows open or not.

 

[TheRebuild]

I just don't think it's reversible from a practical, comprehendible standpoint.

It will reverse once we get hit by the massive astroid strike that we're overdue on, and it throws tons of particulate matter up into the upper atmosphere and effectively blocks out the sun.

 

[RipsADrive]

It will reverse once we get hit by the massive astroid strike that we're overdue on, and it throws tons of particulate matter up into the upper atmosphere and effectively blocks out the sun.

Or perhaps Yellowstone will finally pop.

The nice thing about climate change is that you can at least feel like you're doing something about it even if it just amounts to a drop in the ocean.

 

[Stoneman89]

We have boreal forests in our provinces, many of which have large chunks that are nearly 100 years old. These are not redwoods that live a thousand years, but trees that are well past their expiry date in terms of age and being supple. In the past they would have burned through long ago and been replaced by new ones, but due to the spread of civilization, many have been preserved and contained well beyond their best before date. I would expect this trend to continue for a while because of that.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Crazy whipping gust force winds this afternoon. Come out of nowhere and lots of wind energy at ground level. Garbage and dust and sand whipping around in the air.

 

[Drivesaitl]

It will reverse once we get hit by the massive astroid strike that we're overdue on, and it throws tons of particulate matter up into the upper atmosphere and effectively blocks out the sun.

The homeostasis of the cosmos. Ultimately the next major asteroid event will be the cause of the next mass extinction and if the planet survives impact the next evolution phase will ensue.

I don't know that we're overdue on a hit. Cataclysmic collision of planetary objects isn't on any particular known schedule.

That aside I wondered earlier what amount of smoke could cause even say a 1-2 week global winter in regions. Volcanic Ash has effected that multiple times in recorded history and one massive volcanic ash event can impact the entire planet. Could a mega fire beyond what we have seen have any similar impacts?

 

[Section337]

Crazy whipping gust force winds this afternoon. Come out of nowhere and lots of wind energy at ground level. Garbage and dust and sand whipping around in the air.

Yep, that show required a break from our meeting.

 

[oilers'72]

Cool and wet weather forecast in a couple of days. Wouldn't be surprised to see snow in the mountains. If not in the Canadian Rockies, then definitely to the south. And I wouldn't be surprised if the snow pushed eastward from there.

 

[MoontoScott]

Yes indeed, perhaps the long and unforgiving night of the apocalypse is upon us but fear not-- grab a few corona, your best girl and enjoy the end while listening to some classic tunes like this. Ride the snake to the ancient lake.

After all, as Lord Tennyson once remarked "what is it all but the trouble of ants in the gleam of a million, million suns."