Speculation: 2019 NHL Draft

[HandshakeLine]

The lesson from Esposito too is "sell high". I don't mind if you take a pick like that isn't working out, but evaluate it accordingly and cut bait if you need to.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Hall was promising but the injuries.
Phillips remains to be seen. Dman at U of Minn, no idea how he is looking as he just finished his soph year. Same with the 2nd rounders. I was speaking of the team historically, in generalities, multiple gms, since say 1990. But fair enough in regards to JR.
Maybe we should examine Carolinas picks under him. Or maybe not lol

Carolina Hurricanes Draft History at hockeydb.com

But we have our own scouting and data analysis people, which means that these two aren't really comparable. Unless you're arguing that JR makes every selection personally, which I don't think you are?

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Phillips development has been completely derailed and despite the fact he was once kind of promising.... at this juncture I would expect next to nothing from him.

 

[wej20]

Phillips development has been completely derailed and despite the fact he was once kind of promising.... at this juncture I would expect next to nothing from him.

Yep, jumping up to play for Minnesota in the middle of the season seems to have been a huge mistake for his development. I guess the counter argument is that he should have been in a better position this season given his half season the year before, but I have to imagine his confidence was shot after 11 games 0 points -3 and 21 PIMs in that half season. Wasn't he also converted to defense relatively late in his career? seems like he'd be in a much better place if he'd completed his post draft year in the USHL.

 

[Peat]

Yep, jumping up to play for Minnesota in the middle of the season seems to have been a huge mistake for his development. I guess the counter argument is that he should have been in a better position this season given his half season the year before, but I have to imagine his confidence was shot after 11 games 0 points -3 and 21 PIMs in that half season. Wasn't he also converted to defense relatively late in his career? seems like he'd be in a much better place if he'd completed his post draft year in the USHL.

I think the big one was Minnesota's coach got fired and the new guy wasn't the one who recruited him. If he'd stuck with a guy who believed in him, maybe that makes a difference. But yes, 20/20 hindsight he should have stayed in the USHL that year.

 

[The Old Master]

Hope they take a winger that’s close to NHL ready. Dman usually takes longer to develop, so we can only fix the defense through trades if we still want to win another cup with the current core.

we could have a chance at finding tanger's replacement. winger would not be my first choice. depending on who's there. imo

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

we could have a chance at finding tanger's replacement. winger would not be my first choice. depending on who's there. imo

Imo at pick 21 you have a better chance of finding a top line/ top 6 winger than a top pairing defender.

 

[The Old Master]

Imo at pick 21 you have a better chance of finding a top line/ top 6 winger than a top pairing defender.

most years, yes. not this year and that's why I don't want to trade it for any thing.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

most years, yes. not this year and that's why I don't want to trade it for any thing.

Can’t say I agree. Find the defenders to be relatively weak this year. Looks like the scouts may agree with only one d-man in the top 10 (McKenzie). If you want to extract value from the pick itself, I think the forward depth of this class is where to do it.

Personally not opposed to a defender but I don’t think Harley, York, Broberg or Soderstrom will be there. Wouldn’t mind Bjornfot or Johnson or Heinola too much but there could be better Fs to swing on.

Inherently more risk with defenders/takes longer for them to make an impact.

 

[Sam Adams]

My preference is the most physical player who can skate, throws lots of checks and can fight. This team can use a Tom Wilson at fwd or a Scott Stevens/Steve Smith type on Defense

 

[Peat]

most years, yes. not this year and that's why I don't want to trade it for any thing.

I'm with CLC. This looks like a bad year for top end sure fire dmen - but ridiculously rich in Cs and with a good crop of Ws. I don't think this is the year to target D... and in general, I'd argue that 1st round dmen seem to miss more and that later round dmen often offer more value than forwards. And dmen take longer to develop when we're on a time crunch.

Whatever they do, I'll support if its a talented player who's probably BPA, but I'm on the forward train here.

 

[The Old Master]

Personally not opposed to a defender but I don’t think Harley, York, Broberg or Soderstrom will be there. Wouldn’t mind Bjornfot or Johnson or Heinola too much but there could be better Fs to swing on.

i agree. i'm keying on knight and lavoie if they go before we pick we should be in great shape to get one of the 4-5 de that have very high up side. and of coarse they all could bust too but its a chance i think we should take......................depending on who else is there

 

[The Old Master]

I'm with CLC. This looks like a bad year for top end sure fire dmen - but ridiculously rich in Cs and with a good crop of Ws. I don't think this is the year to target D... and in general, I'd argue that 1st round dmen seem to miss more and that later round dmen often offer more value than forwards. And dmen take longer to develop when we're on a time crunch.

Whatever they do, I'll support if its a talented player who's probably BPA, but I'm on the forward train here.

oh, i would love to get a center. i just think it will be picked over fast. with all things being equal we have some wings in the system that have some up side. center and de not so much.

 

[Jobeycool]

Personally I think they should try to trade both Kessel and Letang next.....Love this Maata trade..

 

[HandshakeLine]

Imo at pick 21 you have a better chance of finding a top line/ top 6 winger than a top pairing defender.

Letang was a high third, no?

 

[The Old Master]

Letang was a high third, no?

every day you can find a lottery winner. but putting your house on that bet is not a smart way to go.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't really care if we get a forward or a blueliner, but we should go BPA and make sure we get a great skater.

I also wouldn't mind moving the pick if it landed us a guy like Ehlers; young, talented, great skater.

 

[Andy99]

i agree. i'm keying on knight and lavoie if they go before we pick we should be in great shape to get one of the 4-5 de that have very high up side. and of coarse they all could bust too but its a chance i think we should take......................depending on who else is there

I think Lavoie is going to be the next Riley Sheahan but we’ll see..I’d rather they take the goalie if they have a chance...probably because I’m not sold on Murray returning to his 2016-17 form, and goalies have more impact on the game

 

[Jobeycool]

Or you could do it this way, move Letang,Kessel or Hornquist...maybe all 3 if you can decent younger players in return...see if a team is stupid enough to get rid of youth...because that is where the game is going...If they have some skill and speed..

 

[The Old Master]

I think Lavoie is going to be the next Riley Sheahan but we’ll see..I’d rather they take the goalie if they have a chance...probably because I’m not sold on Murray returning to his 2016-17 form, and goalies have more impact on the game

I think you might have missed the point I was trying to make. I don't want to take either but if someone else takes them "before" us, it moves others down for us.

 

[jmelm]

We need some skilled forwards. We've got a lot of nice character forwards and guys who might be middle 6 at best, but not a single sure-fire 1st line forward in our system. We need to get one -- preferably a C, but otherwise a W -- with this pick.

Dumo still has 10 years of quality hockey in him, and Petterssen is a baby in age for a Dman. The Pens believe that Almari is the real deal, so Dumo/Petterssen/Almari *appears* to be a respectable left side for a long time. I'm an advocate of keeping both Letang and Schultz here for a long time, and they both have a lot of years left of quality hockey, so that would be 2 guys on RD. Yes we need more depth in our prospect pool, but the age of our D relative to the age of our best forwards (87, 71, 81, 72) dictates that we need F more than D -- if the talent left on the board is equal.

It would be great if Tomasino falls to us but he seems like a high riser and think he'll be gone, and Newhook will certainly be gone. Not sure what the Pens' brass feels about the warts in the games of guys like Lovoie, Suzuki or Kaliyev.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Final thoughts on our 21st pick if we keep it-

Best case scenario pipe dream: Newhook and/or Podkolzin fall (in that order)

Favorite realistic forward: Nick Robertson*. IMO he’s relatively “safe” even at 5’9” without compromising upside. I know this would be considered a bit of a reach but honestly idrc.

(*like the Fs in this class a lot and would still be very excited if we took any of Tomasino, McMichael, Pelletier, Hoglander, Poulin, Brink, Kaliyev, Rees)

Favorite realistic d-man: (assuming Harley/York/Soderstrom are gone) Bjornfot.

Please for the love of god do not draft: Knight and Lavoie

Guys I don’t really like but will be able to convince myself they were good picks if we take them: Suzuki, Heinola, M. Robertson, Puistola

Actual prediction: Penguins select Tobias Bjornfot

 

[Jacob]

Damn.. didn't realize they knocked 2 inches off Brink at the combine. Kid must've been caught wearing lifts.

 

[HandshakeLine]

every day you can find a lottery winner. but putting your house on that bet is not a smart way to go.

But how many players of Letang's caliber were picked in the first round? To put it another way, Gudbranson was a 3rd overall.

To act like picking in the first isn't a crapshoot is just plain dishonest.

 

[Jobeycool]

I think if things do not look good with our 1rst round maybe trade down.