Speculation: 2019 NHL Draft

[dogthateats]

What players are expected to arrive in the NHL the soonest? Every year there seems to be a few guys that make it the year they are drafted that aren’t necessarily top 5 picks.

 

[Dangles78]

Phillips development has been completely derailed and despite the fact he was once kind of promising.... at this juncture I would expect next to nothing from him.

I wouldn't say that Phillips' development is derailed. However, I think it would be a terrible decision to go back to the USHL so he can keep his NCAA eligibility. I think he should report to the Portland Winterhawks. I know we all hate Johnston, but Portland has been an excellent program for the past decade.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I wouldn't say that Phillips' development is derailed. However, I think it would be a terrible decision to go back to the USHL so he can keep his NCAA eligibility. I think he should report to the Portland Winterhawks. I know we all hate Johnston, but Portland has been an excellent program for the past decade.

100 percent agree. Really think he should go to CHL at this point.

 

[Beauner]

What players are expected to arrive in the NHL the soonest? Every year there seems to be a few guys that make it the year they are drafted that aren’t necessarily top 5 picks.

I thought about this. Would definitely be beneficial to draft a guy, all things equal, that can get to the NHL ASAP (fwiw Pastrnak was drafted 25th in 2014 and an NHL regular by 2016).

I think the most likely guys will be Europeans who were playing in their countries' top professioanl league, or collegiate players or guys who will be going to school in the fall. That being said, don't draft a guy based on his ETA. go for the guy who you think will be the best player. But, if you're split between a few guys or your favorites are off the board, ETA should be a top factor.

 

[Jacob]

Pretty hard to predict that sort of thing. Nobody saw Pastrnak stepping into the NHL the next year or Konecny a year after being drafted.. if they had they'd have been picked much higher.

It's a safe bet that any of the USNTDP players outside of Hughes are going to spend at least a year in the NCAA and likely won't even be at camp.

 

[The Old Master]

But how many players of Letang's caliber were picked in the first round? To put it another way, Gudbranson was a 3rd overall.

To act like picking in the first isn't a crapshoot is just plain dishonest.

never said it wasn't but you do have much better odds.

 

[Dangles78]

What players are expected to arrive in the NHL the soonest? Every year there seems to be a few guys that make it the year they are drafted that aren’t necessarily top 5 picks.

Brett Leason. He's 20 and a third year eligible draftee. I'm pretty sure he's getting late 1st/early 2nd grades right now. Not sure how I feel about taking (CHL) overagers that early.

 

[HandshakeLine]

never said it wasn't but you do have much better odds.

Again, I'd like to see the numbers on that. My gut feeling is that, while you might have better odds that the player will stay in the NHL for some length of time, it seems like there's almost no corrollation for where you pick in the first round and whether or not you get a 1st line winger or a top pairing d or whatever.

I'm not saying we should waste our pick, but honestly, even picking high in the first is still a long shot.

 

[The Old Master]

Again, I'd like to see the numbers on that. My gut feeling is that, while you might have better odds that the player will stay in the NHL for some length of time, it seems like there's almost no corrollation for where you pick in the first round and whether or not you get a 1st line winger or a top pairing d or whatever.

I'm not saying we should waste our pick, but honestly, even picking high in the first is still a long shot.

don't have numbers but if your not around for awhile you wont be a top anything.

 

[HandshakeLine]

don't have numbers but if your not around for awhile you wont be a top anything.

You're missing my point. Being in the NHL for a set-length of time isn't that impressive with a first round pick-- it's a sunk-cost fallacy. The organizations have to justify their first round pick, so they try to make them succeed by any means necessary.

It's more notable to see when players actually live up to their first-round draft pedigree and become good players.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

My only hope is Pittsburgh doesn't pick someone with their 1st round pick who projects to be a physical stay at home defender with limited puck skills or a forward who projects to be a bottom six grinder at best.

 

[HandshakeLine]

So.... Colby Armstrong, Jr.?

 

[Peat]

You're missing my point. Being in the NHL for a set-length of time isn't that impressive with a first round pick-- it's a sunk-cost fallacy. The organizations have to justify their first round pick, so they try to make them succeed by any means necessary.

It's more notable to see when players actually live up to their first-round draft pedigree and become good players.

Last year, there were 43 dmen who played 20 games or more and had a ppg of .33 who were selected in the 1st round. Supposing an average of 10 dmen per 1st round, and supposing that its fair to count the last 18 drafts (I pulled those particular numbers out of my behind but whatevs), that means we're talking 20-25% of 1st round dmen become someone to be proud of.

There were 39 dmen who fitted the same criteria from all other rounds and 6 who went undrafted. So you're roughly as likely to get a good dman from the 1st as all the other rounds put together.

Same exercise for Cs (disclaimer: I am using the NHL site definitions so dodgy as hell), this time setting ppg to .5, you get 54 from the 1st round, and 19 from all other rounds and 5 who went undrafted. You are three times more likely to get that C you've been dreaming of from the 1st as from any other round, and assuming the same make-belief average of 10 and 18 rounds, that's just under 33% of Cs become cool dudes (although I bet this average gets flattened if you take out the top 10 picks but guess who doesn't feel like that doing that work).

And now for right wingers and left wingers, 28 RWs and 27 LWs in the 1st, add it together and you have the same basic thing as Cs, 16 RWs and 18 LWs from all other rounds, so twice as likely to find a cool winger late on as you are a centre and nearly as likely to find a cool dman, no undrafted RWs and 1 undrafted LW.

Cool.

A more careful man than myself would look closer at how many guys are actually taken per position in each draft, and what draft classes are still represented/which have yet to break through, but whatevs. I should have also probably checked ToI for dmen instead of points, but I'm lazy.

In summation - probably about 25-33% of 1st rounders become the sort of guy you hoped to get. The number drops for dmen and is probably at its highest for wings. You are most likely to find quality dmen and wings outside of the 1st by a long way.

 

[Jacob]

My only hope is Pittsburgh doesn't pick someone with their 1st round pick who projects to be a physical stay at home defender with limited puck skills or a forward who projects to be a bottom six grinder at best.

Same, but I don't really even see anyone like that available around our pick, luckily. Even guys that are considered "two-way" or "defense first" like maybe Robertson or Bjornfot have legs and upside and can move the puck.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Brett Leason. He's 20 and a third year eligible draftee. I'm pretty sure he's getting late 1st/early 2nd grades right now. Not sure how I feel about taking (CHL) overagers that early.

At 21, I would hate the pick. If we got into the second round and decided to take Leason I would think it was a pretty good move.

My only hope is Pittsburgh doesn't pick someone with their 1st round pick who projects to be a physical stay at home defender with limited puck skills or a forward who projects to be a bottom six grinder at best.

Fortunately, not too many of either are projected to go around where we select in the first round.

 

[Andy99]

Jesse has us picking Suzuki in his mock draft and Vensel has us picking Tomasino...unless someone unusual falls or Harley, York or Söderström are still there, I’d hope the Pens trade down if they can...too many forwards with holes that’ll likely be left at 21...some of the other names bandied about here are going to be available at the top of the second...I hope OTT comes calling and we can trade #21 for their #32 and an additional pick (or give them JJ)

 

[Jacob]

Tomasino would be a good pick IMO.

 

[Andy99]

Tomasino would be a good pick IMO.

There’s a decent chance I think that he’s not there at #21...I like him but I don’t think he’s a Pens type player...but who knows

 

[Sam Adams]

Oilers open to trading down

Oilers open to trading down at 2019 NHL Draft

 

[Sam Adams]

Im liking what I see out of this Poulin kid. I didnt think much of his dad as a player but this kid looks like an ideal fwd type.

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

I'm surprised with the lack of trades one day prior to the draft. Hopefully it heats up tomorrow.

 

[Peat]

Jesse has us picking Suzuki in his mock draft and Vensel has us picking Tomasino...unless someone unusual falls or Harley, York or Söderström are still there, I’d hope the Pens trade down if they can...too many forwards with holes that’ll likely be left at 21...some of the other names bandied about here are going to be available at the top of the second...I hope OTT comes calling and we can trade #21 for their #32 and an additional pick (or give them JJ)

That's a long way to fall for just an extra pick - 3 down for Nashville's 3rd, or 7 down for Carolina's 2nd make more sense.

I'm surprised with the lack of trades one day prior to the draft. Hopefully it heats up tomorrow.

The insiders are saying that's all on the lack of cap hit being known.

 

[Andy99]

That's a long way to fall for just an extra pick - 3 down for Nashville's 3rd, or 7 down for Carolina's 2nd make more sense.



The insiders are saying that's all on the lack of cap hit being known.

Maybe the value isn’t right but we should be able to pick up another good pick or two...

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

The insiders are saying that's all on the lack of cap hit being known.

I don't think it should matter much. I mean a million more or a million less isn't that big of a deal for most teams.

 

[Tacitus Kilgore]

My only hope is Pittsburgh doesn't pick someone with their 1st round pick who projects to be a physical stay at home defender with limited puck skills or a forward who projects to be a bottom six grinder at best.

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