Love
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Maybe they think he’s gone before 10. Or maybe we just don’t know about the meeting.
Pre-Game Talk: 2019 NHL Draft, Pt. V: Got your ticket? (Mod note in pinned post)
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Maybe they think he’s gone before 10. Or maybe we just don’t know about the meeting.
Carnal
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- May 29, 2018
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As critical of Benning as I am he has nailed his last two top 10 picks after botching his first two. So... I can't say I know a ton of these prospects but I'm looking. Looking for any reason to be optimistic about this team and I'd like to think they will get the BPA at 10 for the third year in a row... I hope...
I wouldn’t expect any of Newhook, Krebs, or Boldy to play before 2021-22 season either. 2 years is pretty standard timeline for a non-top 5 pick. Evaluating Podkolzin should be based entirely on his skill set and risk to *never* come over, not the length of his KHL contract.
The Russian factor is a real thing though. Countless examples of players who don’t feel they’re getting enough ice time and bolting back to the KHL.
Where did I say it wasn’t?
I said the 2 years of his contract is irrelevant, not the risk that he might *never* come over. Those are entirely different things.
If he says he definitely wants to play in the NHL but not until his contract expires in 2021, then you treat him like any other prospect that won’t be NHL ready until that time - which is pretty much all of them.
If he says he’s unsure about the NHL or you get bad vibes from your interviews, then you avoid. Pretty simple.
HI! I'm a Canadiens fan and I'm asking other teams fans what are the first need you have to adress with your first pick. The Canadiens needs to find a winger (powerforward or goal scorer) and secondly, a top4 D. Cheers!
Ya, but even if he says all the right things about wanting to come over, the risk of him bolting if he has to face adversity in the NHL will always there. Tryamkin bolting (even if he might end up coming back) soured me on the prospect of taking Russians with high picks.
Sure, I get that. It’s just a different thing than the “he can’t come over for TWO WHOLE YEARS” comment I was replying to.
DanCloutiers5hole
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Pretty much similar as your needs . We desperately need scoring wingers and right side D
Krebs injury really changes things. Newhook is my guy, and this could potentially mean he’s taken before us.
Love
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TruGr1t
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I think it was trending that way anyway since around the combine, but the injury probably seals it. We could still be looking at Boldy, but it'll depend if anyone likes Broberg or Caufield enough to take them in the top nine. I'd imagine Zegras and Newhook (which sound like the Canucks top two picks) will be gone.
1 Hughes
2 Kakko
3-5 Byram/Turcotte/Dach
6-9 Zegras/Pod/Boldy/Cozens
Wildcards: Caufield/Broberg/Krebs
Seider
All 1-9 are guys who i’d be very surprised to see Newhook go ahead of. And wildcards are pretty much 50/50 with Newhook. I like him as a prospect but I think there is a bit of overrating going on here. He’s a good prospect for us at 10 but he shouldn’t be *expected* to go before those others.
Love
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I’m probably being pessimistic because I’m really high on him but I think with Krebs’ injury and Podkolzin being Russian, it’s hard for me to see the logic behind some of these teams ahead of us not taking Newhook. To me Krebs, Podkolzin, and Caufield all have more risk than Newhook. Add that to the fact that Newhook maybe plays the most “modern” (great skater, shooter, passer, smart, huge compete level, good two way player) game of any player on the top 10, and you have an extremely valuable prospect.
But on the whole, these 3 players are still generally ranked above Newhook by scouting services and (using Bob Mackenzie’s list as an indicator) NHL scouts as well. Yes Kreb’s injury is new and could change that but the “risk” for Caufield and Podkolzin is already well known and factored into these rankings.
Plus Newhook is not exactly a “safe” pick either, as his projections are fuzzier due to the majority of his games being against a lower QualComp than everyone else. Other than his recent U18’s, he hasn’t stood out internationally either. I’m also not sure “more modern” is a real thing. Every player ranked high can play in the “modern” NHL. Hell, Caufield is only ranked as high as he is because it’s the modern NHL and everyone is still worried about passing on the next Debrincat. Podkolzin has an insane effort / compete level that is in vogue after every playoffs and Krebs isn’t too far behind either.
So while he’s a solid prospect for us at 10, I don’t think there’s a huge risk that he’s going to go before that. I mean, he certainly *could*, but I think we’re allowing our fixation with him being “our guy” inflate our perceptions of him.
TruGr1t
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I think it's pretty clear Podkolzin is trending outside the top 10 at this point short of someone taking the chance. He's still rated up there on a lot of ranking lists, but I've noticed he's moved to around 12-13 on most pro mocks following the combine. The guys who could push Newhook out of the top 9 are probably Broberg and Caufield. Boldy is sort of a wild card for me because he looks to be dropping due to the fact he's a winger.
There seems to be a solid top 7: Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Dach, Zegras, and Cozens
Then it'll get crazy. There's a next group of Boldy, Broberg, Caufield, Newhook, Krebs, and Podkolzin that could go in basically any order.
That's effectively the top 12-13 how I see it, though.
There seems to be a solid top 7: Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Dach, Zegras, and Cozens
Then it'll get crazy. There's a next group of Boldy, Broberg, Caufield, Newhook, Krebs, and Podkolzin that could go in basically any order.
That's effectively the top 12-13 how I see it, though.
Thing about Podkolzin is I think he scares fans and amateur scouts far more than NHL scouts. Given our lack of access to these players, we obsess over things we don’t know such as their desire to play NHL (Podkolzin) or medical prognosis (Krebs). But the NHL teams doing the actual picking don’t have these info gaps and as a result don’t likely spend as much time hedging their bets. HockeyProspect’s 2019 book has verbatims from various NHL scouts and I can tell you they were far more enthusiastic for Podkolzin than they were for guys like Dach, Cozens, and Newhook. I think he’s a lock to go top 10 unless there is some hard info that he isn’t enthused about playing in NHL someday. His intensity and power game will have many scouts overlooking his tunnel vision and Russian question IMO.
TruGr1t
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I've read a lot of pro scout pubs and noticed the same thing. There are a couple issues that make me iffy on it though.
First, there are a lot of higher-end centre prospects in the top 10-15 that could bump the wingers down (including Boldy). Second, a lot of the guys, like Pronman et. al, continued to rank Podkolzin highly in their actual lists, but are putting him outside the top 10 in their mocks recently, which makes me think they heard something around the combine about positional focus or something. That also plays into Broberg rising because he's basically the only draft eligible defenseman after Byram that a lot of people seem to think has true elite potential.
Regardless, I wouldn't be surprised with a lot of different scenarios outside that top 6-7 prospects, which seems pretty locked in. That includes Podkolzin going top 10.
Ya, nothing would truly “surprise” me at this point. This draft is unusually flat between 5 and 12/13 so just about any combination of the usual suspects feels possible. I personally think Mackenzie’s final list will given us the best look at what the actual draft order could look like, but even then I expect there will be more movement than is typical. My only real hope is for Trevor Zegras to get down to 10 or, failing that, we don’t take a D. Any of Newhook, Boldy, Krebs, Cozens, Caufield, or Podkolzin all would leave me reasonably happy. They all have their strengths and they all have their concerns in fairly equal magnitude for me.
Kotkaniemi and Poelhing are good center prospects. Domi is still young. We need a big top6 winger.
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