2019-nCov: NHL Season SUSPENDED

[CHwest]

If only wed get like half of that anxiousness for climate change...

Global warming, flu, Sar's doesn't matter, a chunk of humanity is predisposition-ed to panic, best to just ignore the hype and panicy ones and look at things with cold eyes. I'm in my sixties and have seen a lot of people loosing their shit, just because they like to. Everything with a grain of salt for me.

 

[SOLR]

Talk of playing nhl games in empty arenas. That will be strange to watch. Like watching BIg Bang Theory with no laugh track.

Indeed, wonder how the player association will react to this.

I guess we are getting practice of an empty arena in sunrise.

 

[Milhouse40]

Time, there is little secret as to why these vary at this point. When you look at a sample of cases, a cohort, you have to pay attention to analyze that cohort for the full duration of the lifecycle. Death and serious cases take 3-4 weeks to develop.

Thus, these fatality rates are not calculated correctly at all, it's very simple. It's the media and citizens with no scientific training who just look at 2 numbers and do a calculation that has no basis in fact because time is not communicated in these numbers.

I remember in the beginning of this, many saw the numbers in China going from 41 one day to 210 and then going up by a 1000 per day and by calculation they projected that by the end of February the numbers would be around 4 millions infected....

 

[SOLR]

I remember in the beginning of this, many saw the numbers in China going from 41 one day to 210 and then going up by a 1000 per day and by calculation they projected that by the end of February the numbers would be around 4 millions infected....

That's a different subject. You are talking about contagion here.

The number of extra infection caused by one person or R0, sets the aggressivity of how much the virus is passed from one person to the other. Contagion can be reduced dramatically by quarantine efforts (what seems to have happened in China, but we don't have a lot of transparency).

vs.

The mortality rate (how much of the infected die), can only be truly calculated 6 weeks after a group of person infected on the same day is either cured or dead.

- This is why, when you see 7 people dying and only 20 cases, you should expect a lot more cases in the community (they have been there for while you didn't detect them).
- This is why you could see a location with 50 000 infected and 0 deaths, while another location has 50,000 infected and 2000 death.
Location A is a test after 1 week, Location B is a test after 4 weeks = they are likely to get to the same mortality rate over time.

You have to factor time when looking at the ratio of infected vs. dead.

 

[Milhouse40]

That's a different subject. You are talking about contagion here.

The number of extra infection caused by one person or R0, sets the aggressivity of how much the virus is passed from one person to the other. Contagion can be reduced dramatically by quarantine efforts (what seems to have happened in China, but we don't have a lot of transparency).

vs.

The mortality rate (how much of the infected die), can only be truly calculated 6 weeks after a group of person infected on the same day is either cured or dead.

- This is why, when you see 7 people dying and only 20 cases, you should expect a lot more cases in the community (they have been there for while you didn't detect them).
- This is why you could see a location with 50 000 infected and 0 deaths, while another location has 50,000 infected and 2000 death.
Location A is a test after 1 week, Location B is a test after 4 weeks = they are likely to get to the same mortality rate over time.

You have to factor time when looking at the ratio of infected vs. dead.

No i'm talking about people using simple math to try to predict what will happen next (like our friend here expecting to see millions of death). Just like those a months ago predicting we would be in the millions of infected by now.

R-naught or mortality rate, it's all the same cause trying to predict a virus' future is pointless right now, especially while using simple math. Not enough data to really make any prediction and there's so much underlying situation that affected those numbers so far.

 

[SOLR]

No i'm talking about people using simple math to try to predict what will happen ne%xt (like our friend here expecting to see millions of death). Just like those a months ago predicting we would be in the millions of infected by now.

R-naught or mortality rate, it's all the same cause trying to predict a virus' future is pointless right now, especially while using simple math. Not enough data to really make any prediction and there's so much underlying situation that affected those numbers so far.

Oh I see, yep absolutely. But even if he's right about the gravity, for 50% of the population to be infected this takes months even in the most exponential scenarios (and we know most government will intervene aggressively to curb infections after a few thousand cases)

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I've had a cold for the past few days. Mild fever, some coughing, a little congestion. I feel fine, and any other time I wouldn't think twice about my daily schedule, but given the environment I've been more cautious about interacting. Still went out, but less, and I've avoided handshaking and kept a greater distance. Grudgingly told my dad I wouldn't be coming over today, after my wife questioned my sanity. So while I'm not quarantining myself, I'm more mindful than normal.

For sure, having a fever is a good indication you are definitely sick. But I often have a runny nose in winter with no other symptoms. Especially now that I have young kids. I wouldn't be able to stop circulating because of that, unless you know the government told me I had to or something.

Now if I had a cough a fever and a sore throat then that's different. Then I need rest to recover.

And definitely we need to be a bit more mindful because of the coronavirus. And I definitely don't know for sure exactly when is the right time to isolate oneself. I just understand that not everyone with a runny nose or a slight headache is going to stay home all day.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I wish the Flu was treated as seriously as this. Not diminishing how this virus is impacting people, but people with the flu go out every day with zero regard for other people's health. Maybe this will smarten everyone up a bit

The flu isn't even diagnosed is it? Like the flu and a cold are just synonyms for being sick aren't they? I don't think I've ever been told by a doctor that I have the flu. Strep throat I've been diagnosed with.

Maybe that's what you mean?

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Comparing this to Flu is crazy: 34 times more deaths.

Death rate of Flu os 0.1%.
Death rate of Corona visrus is 3.4%.

I read an article in the New York Times by a mathematician who creates these numbers and he said the final death rate will probably be closer to 0.5% to 2.5%.

The Coronavirus, by the Numbers

Btw I agree it's a big concern nonetheless. Take care!

Also I should add I can't remember exactly what he said the numbers would be so I might be off a bit.

 

[peate]

Talk about bad luck.

Quarantine hotel collapses in China, leaving 10 dead - CNN

 

[Paddyjack]

Interesting, Germany has over 1000 cases so far, but no death. I wonder what they do differently over there

 

[get25]

We can forget the PO this year.

 

[montreal]

We can forget the PO this year.

no kidding, we have been out of the playoffs for some time. I forgot about them after the 2nd 8 game losing streak, if you are that bad that you have 16 games and can't get a win inbetween 8 twice you don't deserve to make the playoffs.

 

[get25]

no kidding, we have been out of the playoffs for some time. I forgot about them after the 2nd 8 game losing streak, if you are that bad that you have 16 games and can't get a win inbetween 8 twice you don't deserve to make the playoffs.

There will not be a PO this year.
Not talking about Habs, no PO at all.

There will be no NHL hockey in April.

Am I clear enough?

Next step: SCap???

 

[montreal]

There will not be a PO this year.
Not talking about Habs, no PO at all.

There will be no NHL hockey in April.

Am I clear enough.

Next step: SCap???

where did you see that?

 

[get25]

where did you see that?

I don't need official response.

We have more chance to make the PO than there is chance to see PO at all.

My guess is that we have less than 1% chance to see PO.

The only answer to this is distanciation to reduce the R0...

 

[overlords]

where did you see that?

SJ was already seeing some pressure to call off a game last week, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season ended early tbh. Barring some unforeseen good news, anyway.

 

[montreal]

I don't need official response.

We have more chance to make the PO than there is chance to see PO at all.

My guess is that we have less than 1% chance to see PO.

The only answer to this is distanciation to reduce the R0...

no it's official after last nights loss we are out of the playoffs.

 

[get25]

no it's official after last nights loss we are out of the playoffs.

Still less than 1% chance to see PO at all.

BTW hkref says 1.2%, while sportsclubstats is a 0.4%.

 

[get25]

What happens with Seattle if their stadium is not finished?

 

[get25]

70% of US economy is services. Much more than China.

A lot of services are face-to-face.

BTW, you believe China"s number? Iran? US?
Satellite images are proving the crisis is going at almost the same speed.

 

[montreal]

Still less than 1% chance to see PO at all.

BTW hkref says 1.2%, while sportsclubstats is a 0.4%.

.4 seems generous, if they had any shot they should have won last night, you can't be that far out this time of the year and lose a 4 pt game. It's over as it's been over a while.

 

[peate]

Interesting, Germany has over 1000 cases so far, but no death. I wonder what they do differently over there

This is Germany, ve don't allow viruses here.

 

[get25]

.4 seems generous, if they had any shot they should have won last night, you can't be that far out this time of the year and lose a 4 pt game. It's over as it's been over a while.

Let me be clear, you do not seem to understand.

There will not be a Stanley cup PO game in 2020.
Not in Montreal, not in Boston, not anywhere.

 

[get25]

Is there any country that has contained this?

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