2019 LA Kings Development Camp Discussion thread.....

[johnjm22]

Kupari has tremendous tools which give him very high upside, but he's a long ways away from achieving his potential. Very inconsistent from what I've seen. I think the Kings should take their time with his development. I hate the idea of him being in the NHL next year. Only exception is if he has a great camp you might give him a few games at the beginning of the season before sending to the AHL where he belongs.

But then again I hated the idea of Wagner being in the NHL last year and showed great progress.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Kupari has tremendous tools which give him very high upside, but he's a long ways away from achieving his potential. Very inconsistent from what I've seen. I think the Kings should take their time with his development. I hate the idea of him being in the NHL next year. Only exception is if he has a great camp you might give him a few games at the beginning of the season before sending to the AHL wear he belongs.

But then again I hated the idea of Wagner being in the NHL last year and showed great progress.

I'm with you. I know it's an unpopular opinion but Kupari has more in common with Kempe right now then Aho.

"immensely skilled" =/= surefire success on NA ice. Every time I see him I think Ales Hemsky minus the glass. That's a good thing, but still not commensurate with this forum's expectations for him.

 

[crassbonanza]

My only issue is that people are advocating for 3+ more years for every prospect we have and I think that is over ripening or being over pessimistic.

2015 was 3 years prior to last season and there was only 1 player from the 1st round who hadn't played a game and he was a goalie. 29 players from that draft have played over 100 games and 13 players had played 200+ games.

2016 was 2 years prior to last season and only 7 players from the 1st round haven't played an NHL game. 15 players from that draft have played over 100 games and 3 players have played 200+ games.

2017 was 1 year prior to last season and only 11 players from the 1st round haven't played an NHL game(one of those is Vilardi). 2 players from that draft have played over 100 games.

If we are using Kupari as an example, if he didn't play an NHL game next season he would be somewhat behind the curve compared to his peers.

 

[yankeeking]

Just for clarification sake are we mostly worried in regards to confidence in having Kupari play in the nhl next year because 1) he is already playing against men now and will be playing in Ontario 2) does playing in Ontario lead to bad habits , remember when DL brought up EE (to help the tank ) I think in doughty’s draft year and he went on a run and when asked why he was playing better in the nhl he said everyone here does what they are supposed to and are in position etc , look at Peterson last year looked like a starter then had a real hard time in Ontario, I know they are both goalies but its the situation I am trying to point out remember the old saying when you play/train with better players you get better 3) I think with both teams training at el Segundo the training during this period of flux will be or at least should be inter mixed to keep the kids getting basics constantly

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

My only issue is that people are advocating for 3+ more years for every prospect we have and I think that is over ripening or being over pessimistic.

2015 was 3 years prior to last season and there was only 1 player from the 1st round who hadn't played a game and he was a goalie. 29 players from that draft have played over 100 games and 13 players had played 200+ games.

2016 was 2 years prior to last season and only 7 players from the 1st round haven't played an NHL game. 15 players from that draft have played over 100 games and 3 players have played 200+ games.

2017 was 1 year prior to last season and only 11 players from the 1st round haven't played an NHL game(one of those is Vilardi). 2 players from that draft have played over 100 games.

If we are using Kupari as an example, if he didn't play an NHL game next season he would be somewhat behind the curve compared to his peers.

Disagree a bit. I don't think anyone is advocating against prospects getting a cup of coffee or a handful of games; just arguing against having them penned in full-time off the bat. Especially those coming from different leagues where they barely play half an NHL schedule.

I did the same exercise as you last week, but filtered it to 40 games rather than 'any nhl time at all,' and the results are very different:

There were 3 18 years olds in the nhl last year and they were all bluechippers--Kotkaniemi, Dahlin, Svechnikov.

22 19 year olds got a taste, but only 6 played more than 40 games, all relative bluechippers--Brady Tkachuk, Chytil, Heiskanen, Robert Thomas, Rasmussen, Hischier.

40 20 years olds got a taste, but only 15 played more than 40 games, again relative bluechippers (or surprises like Jesper Bratt)

Those numbers all basically double at age 21.

It's a fact-based and fair assertion that 3 years is minimum for most NHL prospects.

Fagemo is a little different because this is already his draft + 1 year as he's 19 and playing vs men. I could see him AHLing next year and getting an NHL taste before full time duty the following year.

 

[Legionnaire]

Right and I agree. However, if he proves he is ready then you have to.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Right and I agree. However, if he proves he is ready then you have to.

I just don't want to make the mistake of thinking prospects are truly ready simply because they're playing better than the corpse of some vet people buried last year.

Like I'm fairly certain Mikey Anderson is already our third most talented LHD and wouldn't look out of place, yet there's no way you'll see me pen him in for 82 games.

We're at a major crossroads. We WILL have young talent pushing for time, and our great challenge now is managing their development instead of throwing them into the ocean without a lifejacket.

Example: I need to find the link now to cite it but everyone wanted Wagner to have a bigger role last year but his conditioning wasn't up to snuff for that.

 

[crassbonanza]

Disagree a bit. I don't think anyone is advocating against prospects getting a cup of coffee or a handful of games; just arguing against having them penned in full-time off the bat. Especially those coming from different leagues where they barely play half an NHL schedule.

I did the same exercise as you last week, but filtered it to 40 games rather than 'any nhl time at all,' and the results are very different:

How were you filtering, was it by draft year or age?

For the 2017 NHL entry draft(D+1 last season) I am showing 9 players with 40+ games and 14 with more than the typical 10 game trial.

For the 2016 NHL entry draft(D+2 last season) I am showing 21 players with 40+ games and 35 with more than the typical 10 game trial.

For the 2015 NHL entry draft(D+3 last season) I am showing 45 players with 40+ games and 66 with more than the typical 10 game trial.

The 2015 NHL draft represents that final year of that 3 year waiting period, if our prospects are behind 66 other players development wise then we have a serious issues.

I do agree that most prospects take a bit to develop, but if your 1st round/high 2nd round picks are taking 3 years to develop they are not likely to become high end players.

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

I highly doubt that Kupari is going to be ready to play in the NHL. They might give him a few games at the start of the season and/or after TDL, but imo he should mostly play in the AHL. I watched about 40 games of him last season (including all playoff games) and while he for sure is very skilled and a great skater, he isn't even close to ready mentally. Of course I root for him to have a great summer and be ready in October since he's coming from my hometown, but realistically I just can't see that happen though would love to be proven wrong. His playing style reminds me a lot of more skilled Adrian Kempe. I'd say he has a good chance to become a 35-60 point middle 6 fwd in the NHL over time, but I've seen some rank him the best prospect for the Kings and expect him to become a big time first line scorer, I just think that might be a bit too much to expect.

I'll be watching Kim Nousiainen more closely next season if he gets to play in Liiga and maybe post a few reports here. Nice to see some Finns drafted to the Kings.

I remember when the Kings drated Karalahti and Timonen! I followwed their development for 4-5 years. Then the Kings gave Kimmo away and Karalahti just didn't pan out after some initial hope of Stardom! Like to see Kim Nousiainen become another Timonen!

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

How were you filtering, was it by draft year or age?

For the 2017 NHL entry draft(D+1 last season) I am showing 9 players with 40+ games and 14 with more than the typical 10 game trial.

For the 2016 NHL entry draft(D+2 last season) I am showing 21 players with 40+ games and 35 with more than the typical 10 game trial.

For the 2015 NHL entry draft(D+3 last season) I am showing 45 players with 40+ games and 66 with more than the typical 10 game trial.

The 2015 NHL draft represents that final year of that 3 year waiting period, if our prospects are behind 66 other players development wise then we have a serious issues.

I do agree that most prospects take a bit to develop, but if your 1st round/high 2nd round picks are taking 3 years to develop they are not likely to become high end players.

The players that played full seasons or more than 40 games were top 10 picks by and large.

Our prospects are quite literally 'behind other players' not development wise but talent wise.

This isn't some "kings drafting and development sucks" hot takery, it's just the reality of how long it takes non-top picks to contribute to full seasons or even more than half seasons.

In other words, this is the year I'd expect Austin Wagner to contribute in full. Same with Cernak. Seems like they're on track. This is the year Claugue, Eyssimont get cups of coffee, or maybe up to 40 games. Cups of coffee for everyone else, except Vilardi, who assuming full health would have played a full NHL season by now. There can certainly be surprises. But there are a lot of people who want to throw prospects to the wolves just because and because other teams do it without realizing the reality that those prospects are typically top-1o picks and in most cases they end up in a bad environment. "they're better than the vets" isn't a good reason to rush a prospect. We have enough people for a full roster with 1-3 rotating roster spots for rookies/youth.

I'll go back and re-filter a report this evening, I think we may be looking at one year off each other or something, but regardless.

 

[Sol]

Right and I agree. However, if he proves he is ready then you have to.

Lots of fans on this board have that archaic mentality of having talented players wait 3-4 years before they play in the NHL.

I'm on the side of if they're ready they're ready. Regardless on the time frame. Seems like people still have that awful DL mentality.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Lots of fans on this board have that archaic mentality of having talented players wait 3-4 years before they play in the NHL.

I'm on the side of if they're ready they're ready. Regardless on the time frame. Seems like people still have that awful DL mentality.

"Better than what we have" =/= ready. The only archaic thinking is throwing guys on the roster to 'solve' roster problems just because they may be better than an existing option.

Who, in your estimation, is ready that we're holding down? People are talking in abstracts, let's talk specifics!

 

[Fishhead]

Players should come up when they are ready, regardless. Doughty and Brown were ready early, obviously. As was Clifford. Simmonds was too. Doesn't really matter if you are a star or a role player. I think the Kings are a little conservative with it, but not extremely so. But it's easy to say that, doing it is completely different.

I'm not for leaving a guy in the minors for 3 years just because there is a log jam of average, older guys on the roster. I think spending too much time down on the farm can be just as damaging as bringing a guy up to early. It can really set them back.

At the same time, I'm not for throwing guys in the lineup because there isn't anything else there, I call that Oiler syndrome. Even if a guy might have more talent, a year of learning how to be a professional usually will reap way more dividends in the future. Learning how to do your job is just as important as being good at it.

Bottom line is it is one of the most difficult things to evaluate. If it was easy, you'd see a lot more guys reaching their potential because timing is a big part of success. There are situations where it's obvious if a player should be up or down and that management is probably screwing up. Most of the time though it's a guessing game. It's why discussions on the topic tend to get so spirited, it's the most grey area in player development.

 

[cyclones22]

Kempe's gonna score 20 goals next season. With real coaching (I hope...) and given the opportunity, he's going to get more shots. He's got a decent shooting percentage and we all know about his wheels. It's not like he's Clifford or Lewis who are career single digit shooters.

As far as Kupari, I'm glad he's in SoCal this season and not in Finland. He can have a cup of coffee or two depending on how well he does in Ontario so he can experience and get accustomed to NHL game speed.

 

[BigKing]

Kupari was drafted n 2018 for f***s sake. Nobody is saying stick him in Ontario for three seasons.

All I'm saying is he has to blow the doors of of training camp to start in the NHL and he should not be penciled in to a roster spot going into camp.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

Kempe's gonna score 20 goals next season. With real coaching (I hope...) and given the opportunity, he's going to get more shots. He's got a decent shooting percentage and we all know about his wheels. It's not like he's Clifford or Lewis who are career single digit shooters.

As far as Kupari, I'm glad he's in SoCal this season and not in Finland. He can have a cup of coffee or two depending on how well he does in Ontario so he can experience and get accustomed to NHL game speed.

As long as Kempe is 3rd line and not on a PP unit fulltime, he won't be able to score 20. The people that bitch about Kempe scoring 12-16 goals should not complain and say he does not have talent...as long as he's
third line and not on a PP unit...ANY other King - Kopitar and Brown included - would be lucky to score 12-16 goals on line 3 and not being on a PP unit too.
Please bitch about the first and second line players that cannot score 20 goals - Iafallo 15, Carter 13, Toffoli 13. If Kempe had one of their spots and PP time, he would score 20+ goals.

A new coach and system will not enable 3rd line players to score 20 goals and that's fine and the norm. However, they should get the top lines and PP scoring more for sure.
I hope they change up the top 6 and that Kovalchuk and Prokhorkin are on line 2 together and see what they can do. As long as 73 or 77 are not on it.

 

[crassbonanza]

The players that played full seasons or more than 40 games were top 10 picks by and large.

Our prospects are quite literally 'behind other players' not development wise but talent wise.

This isn't some "kings drafting and development sucks" hot takery, it's just the reality of how long it takes non-top picks to contribute to full seasons or even more than half seasons.

In other words, this is the year I'd expect Austin Wagner to contribute in full. Same with Cernak. Seems like they're on track. This is the year Claugue, Eyssimont get cups of coffee, or maybe up to 40 games. Cups of coffee for everyone else, except Vilardi, who assuming full health would have played a full NHL season by now. There can certainly be surprises. But there are a lot of people who want to throw prospects to the wolves just because and because other teams do it without realizing the reality that those prospects are typically top-1o picks and in most cases they end up in a bad environment. "they're better than the vets" isn't a good reason to rush a prospect. We have enough people for a full roster with 1-3 rotating roster spots for rookies/youth.

I'll go back and re-filter a report this evening, I think we may be looking at one year off each other or something, but regardless.

Yeah, we must be talking about different years or somehow missing each other. The 2016 draft just finished up it's 3rd season playing in the league, which means if we follow the 3 year development plan, that draft should just begin playing next season(or have gotten the less than 10 game taste). The issue is that if you look at that draft you find that 12 of the 20 picks outside the top 10 have played more than 10 games. If you have a first round pick taking 3+ years to make the team, you have to consider them behind the development curve. If Kupari has yet to play more than single digit games by 2021 or Turcotte by 2022, I would be worried.

 

[King'sPawn]

Considering Kupari has played top six minutes in a men's league all season, it's fair to think he may get some time in the NHL, but one shouldn't expect he'll succeed at this level or even stay up here all season.

 

[kilowatt]

I’m just excited that we’re talking about prospects possibly playing top six minutes for us.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Players should come up when they are ready, regardless. Doughty and Brown were ready early, obviously. As was Clifford. Simmonds was too. Doesn't really matter if you are a star or a role player. I think the Kings are a little conservative with it, but not extremely so. But it's easy to say that, doing it is completely different.

I'm not for leaving a guy in the minors for 3 years just because there is a log jam of average, older guys on the roster. I think spending too much time down on the farm can be just as damaging as bringing a guy up to early. It can really set them back.

At the same time, I'm not for throwing guys in the lineup because there isn't anything else there, I call that Oiler syndrome. Even if a guy might have more talent, a year of learning how to be a professional usually will reap way more dividends in the future. Learning how to do your job is just as important as being good at it.

Bottom line is it is one of the most difficult things to evaluate. If it was easy, you'd see a lot more guys reaching their potential because timing is a big part of success. There are situations where it's obvious if a player should be up or down and that management is probably screwing up. Most of the time though it's a guessing game. It's why discussions on the topic tend to get so spirited, it's the most grey area in player development.

Absolutely. It's not a hard and fast rule; I'm just pointing out reality that 22-23 is a good age and not exactly 'over' marinated, and the vast majority of non-top-10 prospects debut in full 3 years post-draft. So my only beef is that people are writing guys drafted within the last two years as full time players given that around the league--not just on the Kings--draft + 3 is the breakthrough year. when we'll be lucky if one grabs a hold of a spot like that and even then it's arguable if that's the best move.

Those are actually good examples. Doughty was a #2 pick, so him popping right in is borderline expected, combination of talent and bad enough team to finish that low, so opportunity. Brown was a camp surprise and made the team--only to play 31 games and leave with a high ankle sprain, then the lockout happened, so he was forced into the AHL for a year, before coming back into the nhl at age 21. We're prettty fortunate he was forced into the minors, frankly. And Clifford and Simmonds forced their ways onto the roster but it's arguable we stymied their offensive development and those were common feelings early in their careers.

The goal is finding on the venn diagram where opportunity meets talent meets nhl readiness.

 

[regulate]

How were you filtering, was it by draft year or age?

For the 2017 NHL entry draft(D+1 last season) I am showing 9 players with 40+ games and 14 with more than the typical 10 game trial.

For the 2016 NHL entry draft(D+2 last season) I am showing 21 players with 40+ games and 35 with more than the typical 10 game trial.

For the 2015 NHL entry draft(D+3 last season) I am showing 45 players with 40+ games and 66 with more than the typical 10 game trial.

The 2015 NHL draft represents that final year of that 3 year waiting period, if our prospects are behind 66 other players development wise then we have a serious issues.

I do agree that most prospects take a bit to develop, but if your 1st round/high 2nd round picks are taking 3 years to develop they are not likely to become high end players.

The average first draft pick under DL the last 10 years was 38th. 38th! You're not going to get many if any D+1 players that low.

 

[regulate]

In other words, this is the year I'd expect Austin Wagner to contribute in full. Same with Cernak. Seems like they're on track. This is the year Claugue, Eyssimont get cups of coffee, or maybe up to 40 games. Cups of coffee for everyone else, except Vilardi, who assuming full health would have played a full NHL season by now.

I expect Clague to get some NHL time this season. Hope he has a great camp, although I still think he needs seasoning on D in the AHL with a more realistic breakthrough in 2020-2021, but he could surprise. Eyssimont is not an NHL player. I agree Vilardi would have been in the NHL all season at D+1 last year if not for the health issue.

 

[alko]

Any info about David Hrenak? Comparing to other goalies.

 

[Herby]

I think both groups are right and wrong.

There are a lot of people here who do have the archaic thinking where a guy should play his junior aged years and then come over and put in multiple years in the minors. That is just unrealistic with the CBA and with how much better and more prepared guys are at a younger age. But there is also no need to rush a guy like Kupari who is 19 years old to the NHL. I like the idea of letting him play most if not all of the season in Ontario because that eliminates the accumulation to North America aspect when he is ready to turn pro. If he blows up at camp or in the AHL and earns it that is a different story, but we don't need to have him play NHL games for the sake of playing NHL games. Same thing with Turcotte, I'd like to see two years at Wisconsin and then join the Kings for what is hopefully a playoff run in 2021 with no time in the minors. That is best move for the Kings and Turcotte, certainly better than riding busses as a 19 year old instead of getting better and stronger in college.

 

[Dykstra]

There isn't a perfect number for how many seasons a prospect need to spend in the minors before he steps in the NHL, i guess the best way is to spend maybe a season in AHL to see how he get used to the pros or US rink (in Kupari's case).