Prospect Info: 2019 Draft Thread: Oilers Picking 8th

[Aerrol]

So we should draft Kaliyev
Edit: His numbers destroy all the CHL guys ranked ahead of him by like...30-40 points.

Over Podolzkin? For the Oilers, absolutely imo. If we're going for a talented player with warts that needs nurturing he's a much better bet for this team to turn into a player than Podolzkin.

 

[Aerrol]

Because there's more to projecting to the next level than just stats.

I was contesting @Zaddy saying that Podkolzin isn't a complete player yet posted a bunch of attributes (compete, 2 way play, great shot, good hands) that make him a complete player which pretty much lines up with a lot of the scouting reports. I'm not saying that the Oilers should take him over Krebs and Zegras necessarily (I'm a big fan of Krebs btw), I'm just saying that I think some people are overstating his weaknesses and are underestimating his strengths.

I also think there's some recency bias due to what has transpired with Paajarvi and Puljujarvi and assuming that every Euro forward prospect is automatically going to follow the same path here. At least Zaddy provided in depth analysis of his game after extensive video watching but some others are just assuming that he'll suck here because of past failures with Euros. I get the trepidation but not every prospect is built with the same makeup and not every regime is going to fail at developing just because previous regimes failed.

I agree with the first paragraph, though again I'd refer you to my earlier post noting that his VHL/MHL numbers are pretty unimpressive for a guy that's touted as being able to take over games. I also agree that taking him at 8 wouldn't be totally insane - hell, if we were almost any other team drafting there (lets say Montreal or Vancouver), I'd probably say we absolutely need to grab him. But it's the Oilers, and I completely disagree with your second paragraph.

It's not just recency bias anymore - over the last decade, what Europeans have we managed to develop? Klefbom and Draisaitl? Both had excellent English and in Draisaitl's case, a pretty strong base to build upon, especially his puck skills and hockey IQ.

We've seen Yakupov, Paajarvi, Puljujarvi all fail in very similar ways. Outside of the first round, Slepyshev, Zharkov, Belov, Yakimov. And it's always the same pattern - they clearly are confused about the instructions they're getting. They complain about lack of communication, not knowing what the coaching staff and org want. The team has demonstrated so thoroughly that it's the goddamn worst in the league at developing talent that I'm shocked this is even a debatable point among fans as knowledgeable as we are on HFOil. This is ESPECIALLY true for European Project Players, no matter how tantalizing their tools are, and even more especially true when their English isn't ready to go on draft day.

Mark my words, if the Oilers somehow 'luck' into drafting Podolzkin, he'll bust harder than Nichushkin has for the Stars.

edit: The only way I see him panning out for us is if he stays in Russia for 3-4 years, learns to dominate in the KHL, then comes over. At that point we might have cleaned up our act as an org a bit, and he'll be a much more polished product.

 

[nafrelio]

That first trade is not good value at all.

For reference, Philadelphia traded 29 + a 2nd to move up 5 spots in 2015. You don't move down from 8 to 19 and only get a 2nd, that's a huge drop off.

The value may not quite be there in my "proposals" for us, but the 2nd you named in the Philly trade they used to move up 5 spots was #61 (basically a 3rd rounder) and a far cry from #32 in my proposal!

TBH, they seemed a little poor from an Oiler's point of view on the first one and a little poor for ARI in the second one.- I just went by the numeric grid I found, FWIW. The idea of trading down has been brought up here numerous times - I was just playing with that idea. I think that the team trading down should win the trade at least by a little margin because in trading down they assume more risk and because otherwise they wouldn't bother.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Over Podolzkin? For the Oilers, absolutely imo. If we're going for a talented player with warts that needs nurturing he's a much better bet for this team to turn into a player than Podolzkin.

No I mean over any WHL guy. His stats are way better than any of them.

 

[Canovin]

No I mean over any WHL guy. His stats are way better than any of them.

What kind of stats does Podz have? A handful of points in the MHL?

 

[Zaddy]

On the topic of Cajkovic, one of his goals from today:

 

[Hitman77]

This is not the projected top 8 wtf

I purposely left off Podkolzin. The list is the projected 8 minus Podkolzin.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

 

[ehhteen]

Leaning towards Caufield for sure. After missing out on Debrincat, would be nice to have a one shot scorer on the team with all the playmakers we have. Right handed to boot.

 

[Panda Bear]

We've seen Yakupov, Paajarvi, Puljujarvi all fail in very similar ways. Outside of the first round, Slepyshev, Zharkov, Belov, Yakimov. And it's always the same pattern - they clearly are confused about the instructions they're getting. They complain about lack of communication, not knowing what the coaching staff and org want. The team has demonstrated so thoroughly that it's the goddamn worst in the league at developing talent that I'm shocked this is even a debatable point among fans as knowledgeable as we are on HFOil. This is ESPECIALLY true for European Project Players, no matter how tantalizing their tools are, and even more especially true when their English isn't ready to go on draft day.

edit: The only way I see him panning out for us is if he stays in Russia for 3-4 years, learns to dominate in the KHL, then comes over. At that point we might have cleaned up our act as an org a bit, and he'll be a much more polished product.

This. So many times this.

 

[Panda Bear]

On the topic of Cajkovic, one of his goals from today:

I know nothing about Cajkovic beyond what I've read in the thread today.

Would it be fair to say that he's better at shooting and finding open ice than he is carrying the puck and making plays? The former type of player tends to do worse on weak teams than the former, and I saw that Cajkovic only had 46 points in 60 games but does very well at the U-18s with his national team.

 

[Joey Moss]

I have a feeling if we don't take Caufield he'd go to Vancouver at 10.

 

[McDrai]

Caufield making a case to go top 10. This guy can flat out score goals and that's what we need more of on this team. Pure snipers

 

[Panda Bear]

My problem with drafting Caufield is that he looks like he's 12. At least DeBrincat looked 16.

Fortunately, who gives a shit about size anymore?

 

[Seachd]

The scary part about a prospect staying in 2 years is that they could stay another 2 years and become a free agent.

This is a really minor concern in my books. A bigger worry would be drafting Europeans that aren’t super motivated to come over.

But college players have a really small chance of being an issue. Four years to young guys who can’t wait to get their pro careers started is an eternity.

 

[Hitman77]

Caufield making a case to go top 10. This guy can flat out score goals and that's what we need more of on this team. Pure snipers

Agreed. Granted, I don't know much else about him. Better skater than DeBrincat?

 

[Joey Moss]

He's probably the best fit for our team. He would get so many chances with McDavid and Draisaitl feeding him on the PP.

 

[Aerrol]

No I mean over any WHL guy. His stats are way better than any of them.

Uh, you're really stretching here with your comparisons. I have stated, repeatedly why I think Podolzkin is a project, and points are just one part of it. He's largely a one trick player who drives the net to shoot. He doesn't show amazing reads or passing ability IMO. His defensive play is more good because of effort rather than making the right read (will that translate at the NHL level?) He struggles with consistency. He will have a language barrier and an NHL barrier.

Kaliyev should probably go higher than he's projected in my mind because those points DO indicate he's damn good at scoring, so if you can develop him he's probably going to be better than some of the safer choices. But if you're comparing him to, say, Dach, well then yeah we're having a different conversation - two guys who are excelling statistically, what other traits should we compare? I get that you seem to want to stick to one liner quips today but your comparison makes no sense vs what I've said.

 

[Aerrol]

What kind of stats does Podz have? A handful of points in the MHL?

I can't believe I forgot to link this in my earlier post:
Vasili Podkolzin at eliteprospects.com

8 pts in 12 games at the MHL (junior) level, 5 in 14 in the VHL (AHL... Ish...) and 0 in 3 at the KHL level. So not awful but also certainly not as impressive as a lot of the superlatives I hear about him would suggest. Much like Denisenko last year.

 

[alphahelix]

They have mentioned development. They mentioned putting a focus on not rushing players to the NHL and having them overripen. It's why when we called guys up later in the year it was guys like Currie, Malone and Gambardella, not Marody and Benson.

Leaving guys alone for an extra year or two does not address any of the points Aerrol described in the post I quoted.

I didnt have the energy to get into that level of detail, but im certain you could get even deeper into how we are failing on a micro scale.

 

[Tyrolean]

He's probably the best fit for our team. He would get so many chances with McDavid and Draisaitl feeding him on the PP.

He looks small. Hopefully he can also play a 200 foot game and has good hockey IQ and drive.

 

[Zaddy]

I know nothing about Cajkovic beyond what I've read in the thread today.

Would it be fair to say that he's better at shooting and finding open ice than he is carrying the puck and making plays? The former type of player tends to do worse on weak teams than the former, and I saw that Cajkovic only had 46 points in 60 games but does very well at the U-18s with his national team.

I wouldn't necessarily say that. He's good at carrying the puck and making plays too, but yeah he is probably more of a finisher than a playmaker but he's good at both. I think part of his stats, aside from his abysmal team, is that he struggled quite a bit to adjust to North America. There's an article on him on EP Premium talking about this:

“It’s a big difference,” Cajkovic said.

“Hockey is much faster here in Canada maybe because of the rink and because the players are much better. This is the best league in the world for this age group, basically. It was a really big adjustment for me and what I had to do because of the rinks.

“I played my whole life on bigger rinks and a different style of hockey. I had to try to learn as fast as I could North American hockey.

“That was pretty tough for me.”

 

[Zaddy]

He's probably the best fit for our team. He would get so many chances with McDavid and Draisaitl feeding him on the PP.

It's crazy how much I've warmed up to him recently. I'd totally be on board taking him at #8 at this point. The guy just scores goals. He's a perfect fit for the Oilers.

 

[Zaddy]

Shift-by-shift video on Caufield:



Worth the watch. Not just for Caufield but for some other prospects too. Both York (#2) and Zegras (#11) makes some filthy plays in that video.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I have been on the Caufield train since the lotto balls fell, and if we can trade down a spot or three (I don't think he lasts past 12 but we would need the intelligence from the other teams to guarantee that - and intelligence among our executive team is something that is sorely lacking) but if the big boys are off the docket by the time we draft and we dont know if we can do a trade down, I pick him at 8.

Size is a concern come playoff time but he is a finisher so his line would be carried by one of 29 or 97 anyway and he’s probably 2 years away anyway. So long as he is not a tire fire in his own end, and there’s nothing to indicate that he would be, and doesn’t shy away from the bigger badder boys in the league, he is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Oilers - IMO.