2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Pretty much everyone thought the same thing about Sundqvist after his first season with the Blues. Dude passed through waivers and a lot of fans were ho-hum about the guy being an extra to start last season.

Now, I wouldn't count on the same thing happening with de la Rose; and while his physicality, skating, and defense are all damn good, I think Sundqvist showed better hands even during that rough first year. And de la Rose is a bit older than Sundqvist was at the time.
But strange things seem to happen with Swedes. Steen turned 30 and went from a 2nd/3rd line tweener to a 60+ point two-way force for a few years. Backlund, Lindholm, Olofsson...there have been lots of guys who became impact players in their mid-20's. Zetterberg was good right away, but didn't become a top-line player until he was what, 24 or 25? It could be complete coincidence, but if I'm a GM and I can pick up a Swede who is already a responsible player, has good tools, and is just entering their mid-20's, that seems like the right time to make that little bet. I think most fans overlook the value of developing a 4th liner into a 3rd liner; but, in a 4 line league, it's probably a bigger leap in value return than developing a 3rd liner into a 2nd liner.

I generally agree but you sell Steen short. He was 1st liner for us from age 25 up until about 32.

 

[rumrokh]

I generally agree but you sell Steen short. He was 1st liner for us from age 25 up until about 32.

He played on the first line and got big minutes, but his production wasn't good enough until he was like 29.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

He played on the first line and got big minutes, but his production wasn't good enough until he was like 29.

He was 1 of our top 3 forward scorers pretty much every year from 25. Add to that strong defense and he was absolutely 1st line winger.

 

[rumrokh]

He was 1 of our top 3 forward scorers pretty much every year from 25. Add to that strong defense and he was absolutely 1st line winger.

During that span, from 2009-2013, he was 111th in forward scoring in the league with 153 points in 223 games. He was 83rd in forward points and 79th in forward points per game in 2010-11. He was 85th in forward points per game in 2012-13 (I removed several players who played just a few games each year). Those are the only times he produced as a very low-end first liner prior to his 2013-14 breakout. He went from a third liner when he arrived to a high-end second liner during the time you noted.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

During that span, from 2009-2013, he was 111th in forward scoring in the league with 153 points in 223 games. He was 83rd in forward points and 79th in forward points per game in 2010-11. He was 85th in forward points per game in 2012-13 (I removed several players who played just a few games each year). Those are the only times he produced as a very low-end first liner prior to his 2013-14 breakout. He went from a third liner when he arrived to a high-end second liner during the time you noted.

We were not a high scoring team during this period. He was first line level here. I’m not saying he was Sydney Crosby, just that he was already heckuva player at 25.

 

[rumrokh]

We were not a high scoring team during this period. He was first line level here. I’m not saying he was Sydney Crosby, just that he was already heckuva player at 25.

Sure, he was good from the time he arrived and only got better until his recent decline. But I don't think first line is relative. The Blues simply didn't have the offensive talent at forward they needed back then. When you compare those teams with the lineup it took to win the Cup, there's no comparison. It's actually shocking expectations were so high for those teams and that so many hockey fans continue to insist the Blues were perennial playoff chokers. Or that the current Blues are somehow low on talent for a champion.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Sure, he was good from the time he arrived and only got better until his recent decline. But I don't think first line is relative. The Blues simply didn't have the offensive talent at forward they needed back then. When you compare those teams with the lineup it took to win the Cup, there's no comparison. It's actually shocking expectations were so high for those teams and that so many hockey fans continue to insist the Blues were perennial playoff chokers. Or that the current Blues are somehow low on talent for a champion.

I think you sell those players and teams short. We played low event hockey. Guys like Steen, Backes, Oshie were quite good. Hitch’s defensive style held down points but covered for mediocre goalies. Look at Oshie and how his goal totals increased after he was dealt. Perron too. Stats production here similarly disappointed. If we had goalie at level Binner played last year those Hitxh teams wouldn’t have lost early so often.

 

[rumrokh]

I think you sell those players and teams short. We played low event hockey. Guys like Steen, Backes, Oshie were quite good. Hitch’s defensive style held down points but covered for mediocre goalies. Look at Oshie and how his goal totals increased after he was dealt. Perron too. Stats production here similarly disappointed. If we had goalie at level Binner played last year those Hitxh teams wouldn’t have lost early so often.

Oshie's goal totals only increased after he was dealt because he started playing with elite offensive players. And I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but Perron's goal scoring actually went down after leaving the Blues that first time. He had a career year in goals with Edmonton that next year, but his average goals per game from 2013 to 2018 (including that career year!) is slightly lower than his rookie season to 2013.

I think you just remember those teams as better than they were because we had yet to see the Blues field a team with an absolute first line and real depth since 2004.

 

[Renard]

I generally agree but you sell Steen short. He was 1st liner for us from age 25 up until about 32.

I don't remember the season, but a while back, Steen was leading the league in goals scored for a pretty long while. Then, Steen was concussed in a road game (in Montreal, as I remember it). Steen was out for a long time, and when he returned, he wasn't as good. In fact, he was never as good a scorer after that. Too bad.

At the time Steen was leading the league in goals scored, Barry Trotz called Steen one of the best two-way players in the NHL.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Oshie's goal totals only increased after he was dealt because he started playing with elite offensive players. And I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but Perron's goal scoring actually went down after leaving the Blues that first time. He had a career year in goals with Edmonton that next year, but his average goals per game from 2013 to 2018 (including that career year!) is slightly lower than his rookie season to 2013.

I think you just remember those teams as better than they were because we had yet to see the Blues field a team with an absolute first line and real depth since 2004.

Perron had his 2 best years immediately after leaving Blues. He tailed off after but that doesn't change the immediate spike. But you have an agenda here so whatever.

 

[Brian39]

You don’t give 8x8 to defensive specialists with a powerful but inaccurate slap shot. Parayko should get 8 years, but nothing over 7 per.

Parayko is pretty far from a "defensive specialist." His defense is incredibly good and he is not an offensive dynamo by any stretch of the imagination. But people are starting to talk about him like he is a 15-20 point guy and that is just not true.

He is currently tied for 68th in points among NHL D men this season with 13. Vince Dunn is one of the people he is tied with. His 28 points last year was tied for 62nd in the NHL. Offense is not the cornerstone of his game, but that doesn't mean he is a defensive specialist. He absolutely contributes offensively.

 

[Brian39]

During that span, from 2009-2013, he was 111th in forward scoring in the league with 153 points in 223 games. He was 83rd in forward points and 79th in forward points per game in 2010-11. He was 85th in forward points per game in 2012-13 (I removed several players who played just a few games each year). Those are the only times he produced as a very low-end first liner prior to his 2013-14 breakout. He went from a third liner when he arrived to a high-end second liner during the time you noted.

He missed 71 games in 2009-2013 out of a possible 294, which means he missed about 24% of the games in that stretch. Gee, I wonder why his counting stats are outside the top 100?

Among guys with at least 150 games played in that 4 year stretch, he was 78th in points per game played. So his offensive production was on the low end of 1st line caliber in the time frame you are talking about. Combined with his excellent defense in that stretch, that is absolutely an NHL 1st liner.

 

[rumrokh]

Perron had his 2 best years immediately after leaving Blues. He tailed off after but that doesn't change the immediate spike. But you have an agenda here so whatever.

Everyone always has an agenda. In this case, my agenda is veracity. You have an opinion, I have an opinion - cool. You make a statistical claim, I'm intrigued, I verify it, I report the reality. There is always framing. You framed his time with the Blues and time after. I framed that, too. Then you change the framing to a smaller sample size. If that's the framing you wanted in the first place - cool, I accept that. But just because I took what you said at face value, that doesn't mean I have an ulterior motive. If you still believe I do, okay, whatever, I'm not going to try to convince you and I understand why you wouldn't want to continue the discussion.

 

[Brian39]

I build around the foundation of Petro, Parayko, Faulk, ROR, Schenn, Tarasenko, Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin, Sunny, Blais and Binny. Bozak, Steen, Allen and Schwartz won’t be able to stay. I love Schwartz, but I’m afraid he’s the first big casualty. Possibly Dunn too

Things can change over the next 1.5 years before we truly have to make a decision on Schwartz. However, as we stand right now, I am not at all on board saying that Kyrou, Kostin and Blais are all part of a foundation that doesn't include Schwartz. Hell, I think Thomas surpasses him but at the moment Schwartz is a better player than Thomas. We will be very fortunate if any of Kostin, Kyrou or Blais develop into regular 20 goal, 55 point players with good D (or better offensive players without the D strength). Schwartz has been on pace for 19+ goals and 55+ points in 5 of his past 6 seasons. He is on pace to make it 6 out of 7 this year. In the only season he didn't hit those numbers, he was an absolute monster in the playoffs and was putting up fantastic possession/defensive numbers during the regular season. Defensively sound guys who are good on the forecheck and a pretty solid bet for 20g/55p are very valuable players. I like our prospects, but none of Kyrou/Kostin/Blais are locks to be that type of guy. Again, we will have a better idea of those players' floors by the time we have to make a decision on Schwartz. But until they actually show it, Schwartz is part of my foundation and I'd be trying to figure out how to avoid making him a cap casualty. For reference, throughout this post I consider last season to be year 1 of our Cup window, with this season being year 2.

2020/21: This year is the cap crunch but it is the last year of Schwartz's deal and it is difficult to imaging that we can help that cap crunch without taking a step back by moving Schwartz and his modest $5.35M AAV. I'm still firmly of the belief that you pay up to market value to extend Petro and make the cap work by making some combo of Allen/Bozak/Steen our first cap casualties of the Cup window.

For 2021/22 (the 1st year of a potential Schwartz extension/raise), we currently have a ton of cap flexibility. Binner, Alen, Steen, Bozak and Bozak all come off the books that summer, so we currently have just 8 guys signed and a boatload of cap space. But those 8 guys are almost all big contributors on fair deals: ROR, Tarasenko, Schenn, Perron, Sunny,Parayko, Faulk and Bortz. That's 4 of your top 5 fowards, 2 of your top 3 D and a couple awesome value depth guys (with Sunny being arguably the best value contract/depth guy in the NHL). Obviously that cap space gets eaten into with extensions to other core pieces (mostly Petro/other D, J-Bo/other D, Binner/other G, and Dunn), but my point is that all of our "trouble" contracts are off the books, so we have a ton of flexibility and the vast majority of the guys owed contracts are your 2nd tier and depth guys. Petro, J-Bo, and Binner are the only other meaningful UFAs in that stretch and we are talking about $45M in cap space assuming modest cap growth. Frankly, this season should not be the season that we suffer a major cap casualty. Dunn hasn't earned the big payday we hoped/thought he would. Thomas and Kyrou are both RFAs that year but neither will have arbitration rights and neither have been good enough to start thinking/talking about them being offer sheet candidates. They should not be getting ludicrous contracts and (especially Kyrou) will likely be looking at a relatively low cost bridge deal compared to actual talent/production at that point. $45M should be more than enough to keep everyone we want.

2022/23 is the year that I think we will really be crunched again (Parayko hitting UFA), but Perron coming off the books will help. I love Perron, but he will be 34 when his contract expires. You don't let Schwartz walk a season earlier in order to bookmark significant money to a 34 year old Perron. If he wants to do cheap deals because he loves St. Louis then you do it. But other than that, I'm looking at Perron's contract expiration as $4 mil being added to the 2022/23 season's budget. Simply put, I think it is between Perron and Schwartz as the first major cap casualty during our Cup window and I take a 29 year old Schwartz over a 34 year old Perron 100% of the times. Especially because making that choice gets you an extra year with both and there is reason to believe Perron could be one of those guys who is fine doing the Joe Thornton "we'll make my 1 year deal fit into the budget after you work out the other deals" thing in order to remain a Blue.

And then for 2023/24 you have ROR and Tarasenko both hitting UFA at 32 and 31 years old respectively. $15M comes off the books and at that point we have been in a Cup window for 5 years and the core is starting to get old. Regardless of what you decided with Perron/Schwartz, I doubt both are getting extensions. As quickly as things change in the NHL, I'm not comfortable that anyone can plan this far into the future with any measure of reliability, so I'm not harming years 4 and 5 of a Cup window in order to worry about years 6+.

For me, the only way I pass up trying to work out a fair deal with Schwartz is if multiple young guys have already passed him up by 2021 and will need to get paid much more than it appears we will need to spend as we sit right now.

 

[rumrokh]

He missed 71 games in 2009-2013 out of a possible 294, which means he missed about 24% of the games in that stretch. Gee, I wonder why his counting stats are outside the top 100?

Among guys with at least 150 games played in that 4 year stretch, he was 78th in points per game played. So his offensive production was on the low end of 1st line caliber in the time frame you are talking about. Combined with his excellent defense in that stretch, that is absolutely an NHL 1st liner.

I buy it. I think taking a four year span to figure out if a guy was a first liner is odd, especially if the answer in any two consecutive of those years is not clear. I hope you can understand why I'd say that doesn't paint a clear enough picture for me.

 

[Brian39]

I buy it. I think taking a four year span to figure out if a guy was a first liner is odd, especially if the answer in any two consecutive of those years is not clear. I hope you can understand why I'd say that doesn't paint a clear enough picture for me.

So let's go year by year, since you earlier said he missed the cut 2 of 4 years. Among forwards with 40+ games played:

2009/10: 85th in P/GP
2010/11: 76th in P/GP
2011/12: 99th in P/GP
2012/13: 67th in P/GP

Those are 1st line numbers in 3 of the 4 years, with absolutely top end 2nd line numbers the one year he misses the cut.

He also had 19+ minutes ATOI and was top 3 among forwards on his team in 3 of those 4 years (the final 3). In 2011/12 he was deployed as a 1st liner on a 109 point team (3rd in the NHL that year). In 2012/13 he was deployed as a 1st liner for a team with 60 points in a 48 game season (6th in the NHL that year).

That is a clear picture of a 1st line guy by production as well as deployment. And in 2 of those years his team was among the league's best, so we can't fall back on the argument that he was just there because he was on a team with bad players. Was he an elite top liner? Nope. But no one made that claim. But even if you take out his very strong defensive play, he produced like a 1st liner and was deployed like a 1st liner.

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

Per the Blues people on Twitter, Chief blew up the lines today in practice. Also, Parayko didn’t skate, but hopefully he’ll be good to go against Vegas.

Schwartz-O’Reilly-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Bozak
Steen-Sundqvist-Barbashev
MacEachern-de la Rose-Sanford
Kyrou, Brouwer

Dunn-Pietrangelo
Bouwmeester-Faulk
Walman-Bortuzzo


I don’t mind the lines at all, outside of Kyrou over Sanford. Would prefer Kyrou with 49/70, and Steen down with Mac and DLR.

 

[Brian39]

Per the Blues people on Twitter, Chief blew up the lines today in practice. Also, Parayko didn’t skate, but hopefully he’ll be good to go against Vegas.

Schwartz-O’Reilly-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Bozak
Steen-Sundqvist-Barbashev
MacEachern-de la Rose-Sanford
Kyrou, Brouwer

Dunn-Pietrangelo
Bouwmeester-Faulk
Walman-Bortuzzo


I don’t mind the lines at all, outside of Kyrou over Sanford. Would prefer Kyrou with 49/70, and Steen down with Mac and DLR.

I'm very intrigued by a Schenn-Thomas-Bozak line. I definitely think Thomas-Bozak should stay together. They have great chemistry and all of Thomas' best stretches of play have been while the two of them are together. Their play these last few games has been phenomenal and I like that they are being rewarded by moving up the lineup and getting a skilled shooter on the other wing. I'm not sure that it will work, but Schenn is capable of playing the net-front guy that Thomas seems to utilize very well. Imagine telling someone 2 years ago that we would have so much center depth that we could put 3 legitimate top 9 centers on one line and still have our best center on another line, a top 9 caliber center on the 3rd line and an adequate 4th line center. Our center depth is outstanding.

I'm not in love with Kyrou being the odd man out, but I at least kind of understan the reasoning. Steen-Sunny-Barby have proven themselves as a unit, so I can't complain about Berube keeping Steen there over Kyrou. I see the argument that Sanford is stylistically a better fit as a 4th liner than Kyrou, but Kyrou responded really well to being 'demoted' onto MacMac/DLR's wing and IMO looked good there. Sanford completely and totally losing his man on the backcheck for a goal against last night was as bad or worse as any lapse I've seen out of Kyrou in the last few games, so I'd have Kyrou on the 4RW spot tomorrow night.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Honestly I’m really intrigued by those top two lines. The Schwartz-O’Reilly-Perron line in particular has to potential to dummy people. And I also really like Thomas in the middle. He’s had his best games in the middle and seems to be coming on of late.

 

[tomin]

Thomas up on the second with Schenn and his buddy is a dream come true. I'm really looking forward to this game.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Schenn on LW seems odd, didn't he play almost exclusively on RW in Philly?

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

Schenn on LW seems odd, didn't he play almost exclusively on RW in Philly?

We had a very, very good record with Schenn on LW with O’Reilly and Tarasenko last spring.

 

[Mike Liut]

Schwartz-O’Reilly-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Bozak
Steen-Sundqvist-Barbashev
MacEachern-de la Rose-Sanford
Kyrou, Brouwer


how good would that look with Tarasenko on RW on the second line?

Schwartz-O’Reilly-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Tarasenko
Steen-Sundqvist-Barbashev
MacEachern-de la Rose-Kyrou

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

We had a very, very good record with Schenn on LW with O’Reilly and Tarasenko last spring.

Forgot that was a thing

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

Schwartz-O’Reilly-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Bozak
Steen-Sundqvist-Barbashev
MacEachern-de la Rose-Sanford
Kyrou, Brouwer


how good would that look with Tarasenko on RW on the second line?

Schwartz-O’Reilly-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Tarasenko
Steen-Sundqvist-Barbashev
MacEachern-de la Rose-Kyrou

The second one would look even better like this

Schwartz-O’Reilly-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Tarasenko
Blais-Bozak-Kyrou
Steen/Mac-Sundqvist-Barbashev