2019/20 Roster Thread XXIX

[Beef Invictus]

At 5v5, Hagg is outproducing Provorov too (7 points), who actually has the lowest 5v5 points/60 on the team. Hagg is beating every defensemen not named Myers in points/60.

That’s a whole lot of expendability back there. I mean that not not not not disingenuously.

We should trade Provorov and Ghost and let Myers and Hagg replace them. I'm sure it will be the same thing. A single cherrypicked stat indicates it would be.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Ok. So tell me this. Fletch just came out and said he isn't risking development for wins with Frost.

But he risked it in a riskier and more illogical call up with Hart.........with a interim coach? Does that make sense?

I don't believe everything i hear, but i did believe it when they said they were still high on Hak and he has alot of respect around the league.

I couldn't believe my ears and certainly didn't agree w it...but i believed it. I believe the higher ups wanted to keep him

I didnt agree with sending down Frost. Yeah he had been fighting it a bit before being sent down. But it also wasnt the end of the world sending him down. He can work on his 200 foot game and getting that confidence and swagger back.
The only reason not to call up Hart was because you really wanted to tank. How did the draft lottery work out again for the teams expecting a 1/2 pick?
They had nothing to lose bringing up Hart. The other 7 guys who played goal could not stop a beachball. It worked out and he is up to stay.People still need patience with him because he is still just a kid who will go thru ups and downs. He is a smart kid. He will figure it out.
Ffs I still cannot believe we are talking about Hakstol. The man is a bad coach. I really dont care how he is respected. That word is overrated to a point anyway. No one in hockey circles is going to come out and say he sucks on the record. So I am sure he has “respect “ around the league

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Maybe you're right. But it was really odd he didn't fire him immediately ....no?

You had an entire fanbase and media screaming for his head, and there was still enough time to attempt to salvage the season, yet they praised him in the media and took it to awhole other level bioling point.

A headscratcher to say the least.

It depends if you believe they were trying to bag Quenneville or not. Dave Scott publicly made no bones about his desire to bring him in even while Hakstol was still employed.

 

[deadhead]

Interesting observation:

Chris Pronger joined Hockey Central on Tuesday with Jeff Marek, Justin Bourne and Anthony Stewart. Bourne asked him about changes in the game since Pronger stopped playing in 2012.
“When I was young, it was like World War III out there,” the Hall of Famer replied. “It’s not like that anymore. Yeah, there’s hard hits, but you rarely see guys taking runs at each other or a lot of animosity between two teams. When you look at the league now, the players who have a little jam to their game get a lot of space.”
It used to be that you chased size because everyone had it. Now you chase “skilled size” because almost no one has it. It’s made that type of player even more valuable.

31 Thoughts: What really happened with Connor McDavid's knee rehab - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Beef Invictus]

Interesting observation:

Chris Pronger joined Hockey Central on Tuesday with Jeff Marek, Justin Bourne and Anthony Stewart. Bourne asked him about changes in the game since Pronger stopped playing in 2012.
“When I was young, it was like World War III out there,” the Hall of Famer replied. “It’s not like that anymore. Yeah, there’s hard hits, but you rarely see guys taking runs at each other or a lot of animosity between two teams. When you look at the league now, the players who have a little jam to their game get a lot of space.”
It used to be that you chased size because everyone had it. Now you chase “skilled size” because almost no one has it. It’s made that type of player even more valuable.

31 Thoughts: What really happened with Connor McDavid's knee rehab - Sportsnet.ca

This is essentially why both Calgary and Edmonton fell into the Lucic trap, and NJ fell into the Simmonds trap.

I presume Chris means "tough skill" rather than just size because...well...JVR.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Are you under the impression that offense is the only aspect of a defenseman's job, or what? And frankly, he is fine defensively. He's been able to carry Hagg and Myers defensively. He anchors those pairings while performing well. This was just covered pretty thoroughly, but I'm sure you still reject all statistics and results that don't confirm your feelings.

Again, you should clarify: Do you think Hagg is equal to or better than Ghost? Because your current single-minded obsession with a single aspect of play sure is making it seem like that's what you're trying to assert.

I addressed Ghost’s defense. You ignored it.

You say stats show Ghost is good defensively? What stats? His D-worst 43.54 xGF% (per Corsica)? His -6.26 x+/- (only Stewart is worse at -6.38)?

This is all despite having by far the most advantageous Zone Start Rating on the team (an obvious indicator they don’t trust him in his own zone & feel the need to shelter him.

Those stats are plenty flawed, but I’m wondering what these alleged “stats” are you say show Ghost to be some kind of defensive stud. Most stats seem to indicate otherwise.

Why do you need me to clarify if I think Hagg is equal to or better than Ghost?

A) That’s not the point I’m making. My point is that if you’re getting outproduced 5 on 5 by the lousy Hagg, who has played 160 fewer minutes, then the team probably isn’t going to be crippled by your absence unless you are providing great value in other phases, which I don’t think the 3rd pairing, sheltered, non-PKing, PP2, Ghost is. His value to the team is being insanely overstated.

B) I’ve said numerous times I think Ghost is better than Hagg. You know that. My issue is the failure of posters to acknowledge Ghost’s decline. The on-ice value difference is shrinking. The value Ghost is offering the team right now is completely replaceable, but you ain’t getting Getzlaf or Carter for Hagg.

 

[deadhead]

I think what Pronger is talking about are big skilled players who can skate, who can't be checked or moved by the smaller forwards who are becoming the norm.
Both JVR and Voracek are playing with more of an edge this season, and it has made a difference.
Myers is a load to handle, few players in today's NHL can match up with him.

It's also why a healthy Allison would be a big addition, and why the Flyers will be patient with Ratcliffe.

You can also see this on the bottom six, one thing that makes Pitlick so effective on the forecheck is he can skate with the smaller forwards, but also plays a physical game. As the average forward gets smaller, fast, bigger players with less skill will have bigger roles on the bottom six. They may not score a lot of goals, but they'll be able to keep up with fast, skilled forwards and hound them.

Conversely, there may not be a place for skilled but slow players like Strome.
Or even big forwards with average at best speed and acceleration like Vorobyev.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Conversely, there may not be a place for skilled but slow players like Strome.
Or even big forwards with average at best speed and acceleration like Vorobyev.

Agreed.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I addressed Ghost’s defense. You ignored it.

You say stats show Ghost is good defensively? What stats? His D-worst 43.54 xGF% (per Corsica)? His -6.26 x+/- (only Stewart is worse at -6.38)?

This is all despite having by far the most advantageous Zone Start Rating on the team (an obvious indicator they don’t trust him in his own zone & feel the need to shelter him.

Those stats are plenty flawed, but I’m wondering what these alleged “stats” are you say show Ghost to be some kind of defensive stud. Most stats seem to indicate otherwise.

Why do you need me to clarify if I think Hagg is equal to or better than Ghost?

A) That’s not the point I’m making. My point is that if you’re getting outproduced 5 on 5 by the lousy Hagg, who has played 160 fewer minutes, then the team probably isn’t going to be crippled by your absence unless you are providing great value in other phases, which I don’t think the 3rd pairing, sheltered, non-PKing, PP2, Ghost is. His value to the team is being insanely overstated.

B) I’ve said numerous times I think Ghost is better than Hagg. You know that. My issue is the failure of posters to acknowledge Ghost’s decline. The on-ice value difference is shrinking. The value Ghost is offering the team right now is completely replaceable, but you ain’t getting Getzlaf or Carter for Hagg.

You just used expected goals for as a measure of defensive ability.

I'm speechless after that. You know, I think these stats aren't as flawed as you think. It's now amazingly apparent you have no clue how to use them.

It's also useful to contrast expected rate with actual results, by the by.

 

[Starat327]

You just used expected goals for as a measure of defensive ability.

I'm speechless after that. You know, I think these stats aren't as flawed as you think. It's now amazingly apparent you have no clue how to use them.

Inquiring minds have to know.. do you put your nuts in a vice grip for fun? That's the only way I can see doing this constant back and forth.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Ghost is not a detriment defensively.

Hagg isn't anything close to a Ghost replacement.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

You just used expected goals for as a measure of defensive ability.

I'm speechless after that. You know, I think these stats aren't as flawed as you think. It's now amazingly apparent you have no clue how to use them.

It's also useful to contrast expected rate with actual results, by the by.

Again, ignoring the question. What stats show Ghost to be good defensively?

Do you think CF% is a better judge of defensive play than xGF%?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Again, ignoring the question. What stats show Ghost to be good defensively?

Do you think CF% is a better judge of defensive play than xGF%?

I think you'll want to use a variety of statistics to build a defensive picture while also accounting for partners and linemates instead of your bizarre insistence on picking a single stat.

 

[Magua]

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I think you'll want to use a variety of statistics to build a defensive picture while also accounting for partners and linemates instead of your bizarre insistence on picking a single stat.

So you mock me for citing xGF%, among multiple other stats like x+/- & ZSR, & say I’m picking a single stat, while you repeatedly ignore the question of what stats show Ghost to be good defensively, & the only stat you’ve cited is Corsi.

Hysterical & hypocritical. You’re projecting big time.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So you mock me for citing xGF%, among multiple other stats like x+/- & ZSR, & say I’m picking a single stat, while you repeatedly ignore the question of what stats show Ghost to be good defensively, & the only stat you’ve cited is Corsi.

Hysterical & hypocritical. You’re projecting big time.

You used a purely offensive statistic and another metric with a small sample size that is rarely relied on to provide meaningful conclusions.

You cannot understand the issue here? It's like trying to describe the flavor of an apple by presenting the results of chewing on a rock.

To bring it back to hockey, Braun isn't exactly shining in the Expected Goals For department. I don't think you'd claim he's a defensive detriment because of that, would you?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

You used a purely offensive statistic and another metric with a small sample size that is rarely relied on to provide meaningful conclusions.

You cannot understand the issue here? It's like trying to describe the flavor of an apple by presenting the results of chewing on a rock.

To bring it back to hockey, Braun isn't exactly shining in the Expected Goals For department. I don't think you'd claim he's a defensive detriment because of that, would you?

You’re the one completely missing the issue. Accidentally or intentionally.

I didn’t use a purely offensive stat.

I used xGF% which attempts to rate overall play.

You’re trying to pretend I used straight-up xGF, perhaps disingenuously, which I did not.

Meanwhile, you’re using CF% to argue Ghost is good defensively. Well, both stats are flawed, but xGF% is a better judge of defensive play than CF%.

You say I’m clinging to one stat when I cited several. You hypocritically have only cited one, & it’s weaker than the one you mocked.

Braun’s xGF% is 3rd among Flyers D behind Provorov & Niskanen on naturalstattrick, and virtually tied for 3rd with Sanheim — still 5 percentage points above Ghost — on Corsica.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If you're going to compare teammates in xGF%, please please please use Rel not raw.

Interesting observation:

Chris Pronger joined Hockey Central on Tuesday with Jeff Marek, Justin Bourne and Anthony Stewart. Bourne asked him about changes in the game since Pronger stopped playing in 2012.
“When I was young, it was like World War III out there,” the Hall of Famer replied. “It’s not like that anymore. Yeah, there’s hard hits, but you rarely see guys taking runs at each other or a lot of animosity between two teams. When you look at the league now, the players who have a little jam to their game get a lot of space.”
It used to be that you chased size because everyone had it. Now you chase “skilled size” because almost no one has it. It’s made that type of player even more valuable.

31 Thoughts: What really happened with Connor McDavid's knee rehab - Sportsnet.ca

That's a reasonable approach to size. It still has value. It just can't be the value anymore.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You’re the one completely missing the issue. Accidentally or intentionally.

I didn’t use a purely offensive stat.

I used xGF% which attempts to rate overall play.

You’re trying to pretend I used straight-up xGF, perhaps disingenuously, which I did not.

Meanwhile, you’re using CF% to argue Ghost is good defensively. Well, both stats are flawed, but xGF% is a better judge of defensive play than CF%.

You say I’m clinging to one stat when I cited several. You hypocritically have only cited one, & it’s weaker than the one you mocked.

Braun’s xGF% is 3rd among Flyers D behind Provorov & Niskanen on naturalstattrick, and virtually tied for 3rd with Sanheim — still 5 percentage points above Ghost — on Corsica.

Ah, my bad. I thought you used a different stat.

Now did you remember to use a wide variety of stats and information to build a complete picture or are you still doing the thing where you cherry pick a few things without any context at all?

Why have you ignored the isolated impact chart I posted which combines metrics (not just the corsi you claim to despise except when it happens to suit your needs) and presents them in a useful visual format?

 

[kudymen]

Lets flood this thread with off-topic so it gets locked fast and number XXX gets its chance.
One page of the guy "not talking about Ghost anymore" actually not talking about Ghost anymore will be such a relief.

 

[deadhead]

Ghost is not a detriment defensively.

Hagg isn't anything close to a Ghost replacement.

No he isn't, but those heat maps suggest that replacing Ghost isn't mission impossible, either.

The truth is out there.

 

[Tripod]

Odd....Natural Stat Trick has xGF%:

Ghost 46.18%
Hagg 43.66%

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Beef Invictus]

No he isn't, but those heat maps suggest that replacing Ghost isn't mission impossible, either.

The truth is out there.

We'd have to replace him with someone not in our system. Which brings us back to why it makes no sense to move him now.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Odd....Natural Stat Trick has xGF%:

Ghost 46.18%
Hagg 43.66%

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Different sites use different xGF models. You will find some variation.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I simply don’t think trading Ghost is anywhere near the big loss many are making it out to be.

He’s an 18 minute 3rd pairing, PP2, non-PK defender with 12 points in 40 games.

Trading him for Getzlaf or even Carter would be an immediate substantial team improvement.

If they do trade him and he plays well where ever he goes, you better be prepared to take your L like a man and not try to act as if you weren't leading the "he's not that important train."

Also in before you bring up some BS minutiae about you not leading the train.