2019/20 Roster Thread XXIX

[deadhead]

But what the Suzuki comparison shows, is that opportunity matters. Montreal stuck with him. We didn't with Frost and should have. But hey, we have an AHL All Star!

Suzuki was also a #13 pick, top 20 picks tend to arrive faster b/c one reason you're drafted higher is you're perceived to be closer to the NHL.
Frost 5'11 173 at the Combine
Suzuki 5'11 183 at the Combine
Suzuki is the stronger, sturdier NHL body.

"Though he may not be the biggest player on the ice, Suzuki plays a thick, sturdy game and is hard to knock off the puck, especially when he has his feet moving"

But the biggest difference is the team's philosophy, center defense is not the priority for the Habs that it is for AV.
Frost is better offensively than the alternatives, but is also road kill in the 3/2 zone AV favors.
He was highly sheltered when he was up, and I think if AV had the depth to continue to shelter him Frost would be on the Flyers.

xGF/60 for Hab forwards on the PP: Domi 7.84, Weal 7.53, Armia 7.21, Cousins 6.98, Tatar 5.48, Suzuki 5.43, Gallagher 5.23, Kotkaneimi 5.08, Droin 4.43.
Go figure!

Frost didn't get a lot of PP minutes, but he didn't show much in the minutes he got or he'd probably still be on the team.

 

[Starat327]

Well again, I agree that Niskanen has positively effected his play, I just don’t think Provorov has individually changed as a player.

When I think of the word “develop” I’m thinking something has changed about a players individual ability, whether they’re stronger, faster, a better shot, or some other skill has improved... and I don’t think that’s the case.

Like I said, he appears to be making better reads to me, and some quicker decisions, even if they aren't always the right ones. It isn't quantifiable, obviously, so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Rebels57]

Playing better than last year isn't the same thing as developing.

He just played way below his own abilities in 2018-2019 and now he's back to where he was the year before. He's not a different player now than he was in 2017-2018.

And I don't agree with that and neither do his underlying metrics, but you will likely just hand waive those away due to "usage."

 

[Rebels57]

Like I said, he appears to be making better reads to me, and some quicker decisions, even if they aren't always the right ones. It isn't quantifiable, obviously, so take it with a grain of salt.

Yes..eye test AND analytics suggest he has taken a step forward this season.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Niskanen is a 1st pairing Defenseman now? We're getting VERY carried away. He started the year off fantastically and has cratered. Hopefully he'll rebound, but it doesn't do anyone any good to put the expectation of being Prime Niskanen anymore.

League average (LA) on Hockey reference is higher than SV% on NST)
The HR league average save % for this season doesn't look right, because that is a huge decline with no reason (no change in equipment this season).

MBMcC had a great thread on leaguewide scoring being up a little while back. Shot quality is not up. It's not huge amounts of blowouts where teams don't let up anymore. I'd love to know what it actually is, because it's not Penalties either. It's all 5v5.

 

[Tripod]

This just in, weight 2 years ago and draft position matters more than how they perform since.

Oh....and Frost SHOULD be sheltered. When you have a Selke contender, a very good 2-way C, and Raffl as a #4C(should be), why WOULDN'T you give him OZ starts instead of defensive ones. That's just obvious coaching.

 

[Striiker]

Like I said, he appears to be making better reads to me, and some quicker decisions, even if they aren't always the right ones. It isn't quantifiable, obviously, so take it with a grain of salt.

And I'm not even saying that you're wrong, you may be 100% correct, I'm just not sure it's due to development, that's all. Could instead be confidence or the system or something else.

 

[Starat327]

Niskanen is a 1st pairing Defenseman now? We're getting VERY carried away. He started the year off fantastically and has cratered. Hopefully he'll rebound, but it doesn't do anyone any good to put the expectation of being Prime Niskanen anymore.



MBMc had a great thread on this a little while back. Shot quality is not up. It's not huge amounts of blowouts where teams don't let up anymore. I'd love to know what it actually is, because it's not Penalties either. It's all 5v5.

The first part of this is whats astounding to me. We all recognize he started very well, no one is debating that (i dont think). But hes back to earth now. It's entirely possible that this is his lowest low, and the reality is between the two. But theres a giant difference between not looking out of place on a first pairing (Provorov has made a lot of people not look out of place on a otp pair in his short career), and being a first pairing D.

 

[Starat327]

This just in, weight 2 years ago and draft position matters more than how they perform since.

Oh....and Frost SHOULD be sheltered. When you have a Selke contender, a very good 2-way C, and Raffl as a #4C(should be), why WOULDN'T you give him OZ starts instead of defensive ones. That's just obvious coaching.

I think we've covered before that some around here hold different standards for 'good coaching' and those standards are subject to who is behind the bench.

 

[deadhead]

Niskanen is a 1st pairing Defenseman now? We're getting VERY carried away. He started the year off fantastically and has cratered. Hopefully he'll rebound, but it doesn't do anyone any good to put the expectation of being Prime Niskanen anymore.

MBMcC had a great thread on leaguewide scoring being up a little while back. Shot quality is not up. It's not huge amounts of blowouts where teams don't let up anymore. I'd love to know what it actually is, because it's not Penalties either. It's all 5v5.

I think Niskanen has been overused by AV, should be off the PP and have his ES minutes reduced, but the problem is Myers hasn't stepped up and claimed more PT. The break should help, but I'd use time management to keep him fresh down the stretch and for the playoffs.

One possibility may be a delayed reaction to equipment changes (don't think the faceoff rules would have that big of an impact), that is, shooters got to look at film at goalies with "normal" pads and have figured out the holes created by the new rules.

 

[flyersfan187]

Anything can happen once you get in the playoffs.

 

[Striiker]

And I don't agree with that and neither do his underlying metrics, but you will likely just hand waive those away due to "usage."

Ah yes, I forgot that usage doesn't matter.

Also interesting that suddenly the underlying metrics matter when previously they were hand waived away when discussing other players.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Fletcher not shrewd enough in negotiations re: the Niskanen trade?

We have no idea what the negotiations were.

We have no idea how many other teams were also in trade negotiations for Niskanen.

We do know there are 29 other teams in the league.

It’s fair to say 21+ minute, RH, Cup winning defensemen don’t grow on trees.

Thus the Flyers almost certainly were not the only team trying to acquire Niskanen.

In trading Gudas for Niskanen, they turned their 4/5 defenseman into their #2 defenseman.

Personally, I think if you get that opportunity to upgrade you pounce. You don’t nickel & dime over a tiny bit of cap money & have the Caps change their minds or another team swoop in & steal your target. It’s like losing your dream house because you decided to quibble over a couple thousand.

 

[renberg]

It seems that the retention is the thing that bothers critics of Niskanen the most. However for the cap strapped Capitals, that was the key to the trade. Now the Flyers, like thirteen other clubs who are within a million dollars of the cap, are in the unenviable position of having to juggle the roster in difficult ways because they are close to the cap. Being cap strapped seems to be a theme for this season.

 

[deadhead]

The cap strapped situation is probably due to expectations of the new TV contract.

Although the jump in the cap is years away, long-term deals include that expectation in the out years, so AVV is higher than it would be if that bump wasn't on the horizon, which means the first couple seasons are higher relative to the current cap.

 

[Striiker]

Hold on, did I just read people citing Gudas' usage as proof of him being a 3rd pair defensemen? As if a coach using a player a certain way means that's what they deserve?

Gudas being used on the bottom pair is as much proof of him being a 3rd pair defensemen as Hagg being used on the top pair was proof of him being a top pair defensemen.

 

[Rebels57]

Ah yes, I forgot that usage doesn't matter.

Also interesting that suddenly the underlying metrics matter when previously they were hand waived away when discussing other players.

Everything matters. Raw Production matters. Analytics matter. Eye test matters. Usage matters. It's all a piece of the puzzle.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Gudas is 6th in League wide +/- though. So if we make the 2017 Robert Hagg adjustment, he’s pretty much a #1.

 

[deadhead]

Hold on, did I just read people citing Gudas' usage as proof of him being a 3rd pair defensemen? As if a coach using a player a certain way means that's what they deserve?

Gudas being used on the bottom pair is as much proof of him being a 3rd pair defensemen as Hagg being used on the top pair was proof of him being a top pair defensemen.

Right, because two HCs see Niskanen as a 1st pair defenseman, and the same two see Gudas as a 3rd pair defenseman.

Obviously, both HCs are idiots.

 

[Starat327]

Gudas is 6th in League wide +/- though. So if we make the 2017 Robert Hagg adjustment, he’s pretty much a #1.

Yeah, but whats his breakout pass like?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Yeah, but whats his breakout pass like?

Ok up until 119 inches.

 

[Starat327]

Hold on, did I just read people citing Gudas' usage as proof of him being a 3rd pair defensemen? As if a coach using a player a certain way means that's what they deserve?

Gudas being used on the bottom pair is as much proof of him being a 3rd pair defensemen as Hagg being used on the top pair was proof of him being a top pair defensemen.

I guess the only logical conclusion from all of this is that Ghost is a bottom pairing D, and Erik Karlsson is a #3 at best, since that's where they are deployed and coaches know best.

Edit: And using Hakstol's TOI as an indication of anybody's quality is a slap in the fact to whoever's usage youre looking at. You're talking about a guy who refused to play someone who went on to play like a top pairing player, and demoted another to the 4th line when he was playing well. Youll have to forgive me if I'm not exactly jumping at the chance to analyze these data points.

 

[Starat327]

Ok up until 119 inches.

Must...resist...joke...

 

[GapToothedWonder]

It seems like some people don’t understand what that cliche “the NHL isn’t a developmental league” is actually supposed to mean.

It doesn’t mean that players can’t develop there. They can and we’ve seen more than enough proof of that.

What it really means is that player development isn’t the main function of the league, like it is for the OHL, NCAA, USHL, or the AHL. The objective is winning and only winning. It’s not a league to prepare guys for the next level because it’s already the ultimate top level.

If a player can play at this level without being clearly overwhelmed and their presence is a positive net impact on the team, then there’s no reason for them to be anywhere else. There isn’t some magical force in the AHL that makes you develop further or quicker, especially when your coach is an absolute disaster. For some players it’s better but it’s not automatically better for all players.

Lolz no bro. If I send them down on my xbox they always get more development points. They get more ice time and more ice time equals more development points no matter any other factors.

 

[Striiker]

Everything matters. Raw Production matters. Analytics matter. Eye test matters. Usage matters. It's all a piece of the puzzle.

Yup, and they each help each other too. So I'm not sure why you'd say that, as if me bringing up usage would be something unreasonable.... it makes a huge difference.

Even ignoring that, I'm not bashing Provorov at all. He was a top pair defensemen back then and he's a top pair defensemen now. I just disagree that there's some big difference between his actual ability as an individual this year vs previous years.

Actual performance/success varies from year to year, like how he played really well in 2017-2018 and then poorly in 2018-2019. But I wouldn't say he regressed there and the opposite isn't necessarily true now either. In other words, worse stats/eye-test didn't mean he regressed, better stats/eye-test doesn't mean he improved. I see the same pros and cons, successes and failures, but the results have been better this year and a part of that is usage.