2019/20 Roster Thread XXIX

[MacDonald4MVP]

Just at 5on5 flyers goal differential:
Hayes -18
Braun -9
Niskanen -7
Stewart -7

Chuck's guys aren't exactly performing.

 

[deadhead]

Where do you come up with this stuff? Teenagers have played and excelled in the NHL since the beginning of time.

There is no evidence anywhere that "rushing" rookies has proven to be a mistake.

Outliers, and most are top picks who are top picks BECAUSE they are perceived to be close to NHL ready.
Every rookie under 20 in the top ten in rookie scoring was drafted in the top 10 the last three seasons, most in the top 3.
Most top 20 picks don't show up until they're 20 or older, and later picks often as late at 24-25 (lot's of marinating in the AHL or KHL).
[I separate ES and PP scoring, b/c PP scoring is a matter of opportunity as much as skill, see Svechnikov]

Top rookie scorers:
2019-20:
Maker #4 (21) 41g 22 ES 15 PP
Olofsson #181 (24) 21 ES 14 PP
Q Hughes #7 (20) 18 ES 16 PP
Kubalik #191 (24) 27 ES 5 PP
Suzuki #13 (20) 18 ES 9 PP
Necas #12 (20) 21 ES 5 PP
Fox #66 (21) 15 ES 11 PP
Mikheyev (25) 22 ES
Marion #154 (22) 19 ES 4 PP
Gurianov #12 (22) 10 ES 7 PP
Hughes #1 (18) 11 ES 6 PP

2018-19:
Pettersson #5 (20) 44 ES 22 PP
Tkachuk #4 (19) 35 ES 10 PP
Dahlin #1 (18) 24 ES 20 PP
Johnnson #202 (24) 37 ES 6 PP
White #21 (21) 33 ES 8 PP
Cirelli #72 (21) 38 ES 1 PP
Svechnikov #2 (18) 32 ES 5 PP
Kahun (23) 35 ES 2 PP
Kotkaniemi #3 (18) 29 ES 5 PP
Lindblom #138 (22) 30 ES 3 PP

2017-18:
Barzal #16 (20) 58 ES 27 PP
Keller #7 (19) 44 ES 20 PP
Gourde (26) 49 ES 13 PP
Connor #17 (21) 46 ES 11 PP
Boeser #23 (20) 32 ES 23 PP
DeBrincat #39 (20) 40 ES 12 PP
Hischier #1 (18) 46 ES 6 PP
Dubois #3 (19) 33 ES 5 PP
Heinen #116 (23) 34 ES 12 PP
Butcher #123 (22) 21 ES 23 PP
Kerfoot #150 (23) 26 ES 17 PP
DeBrusk #14 (21) 34 ES 9 PP
Segachev #9 (19) 24 ES 16 PP

 

[Starat327]

And it’s not even as if he did anything special when he got into this cap problem. A decent but overpaid middle 6 center, an old(ish) defensemen who had a rough previous year and is already appearing to wear down this year, and then an overpayment for another old(ish) dinosaur-style defensemen who is blocking a superior player.

I know some people didn’t care about what moves were made, so long as there were moves, but that’s ridiculous and it’s easy to see the flaws here.

As far as the contracts go, we have to judge them based on what was known at the time because that’s what Fletcher had to work with. Both the TK and Provorov contracts were fine but not steals. TK is outperforming his but Provorov is much trickier to judge. Sanheim should have been long term.

Yeah, I know people like to look back, especially in short sample sizes and claim things as an absolute steal of a deal, but the contract needs to be judged, as you said, based on what was available at the time and the general projection of the player. I think we all knew TK was going to become a very good player, but he didnt have the raw stats or draft pedigree to command an outrageous deal, so he got paid in accordance with his peers. Likewise, Provorov, who, if he hadnt had a down year, probably wouldve been close to 7.5 or so. You didnt need a crystal ball to see this coming.

 

[TCTC]

Just at 5on5 flyers goal differential:
Hayes -18
Braun -9
Niskanen -7
Stewart -7

Chuck's guys aren't exactly performing.

I love how +/- becomes relevant only when it fits the narrative.

 

[Adtar02]

It seems like some people don’t understand what that cliche “the NHL isn’t a developmental league” is actually supposed to mean.

It doesn’t mean that players can’t develop there. They can and we’ve seen more than enough proof of that.

What it really means is that player development isn’t the main function of the league, like it is for the OHL, NCAA, USHL, or the AHL. The objective is winning and only winning. It’s not a league to prepare guys for the next level because it’s already the ultimate top level.

If a player can play at this level without being clearly overwhelmed and their presence is a positive net impact on the team, then there’s no reason for them to be anywhere else. There isn’t some magical force in the AHL that makes you develop further or quicker, especially when your coach is an absolute disaster. For some players it’s better but it’s not automatically better for all players.

Ummmmm, that’s like your opinion, man ....

 

[deadhead]

Yeah, I know people like to look back, especially in short sample sizes and claim things as an absolute steal of a deal, but the contract needs to be judged, as you said, based on what was available at the time and the general projection of the player. I think we all knew TK was going to become a very good player, but he didnt have the raw stats or draft pedigree to command an outrageous deal, so he got paid in accordance with his peers. Likewise, Provorov, who, if he hadnt had a down year, probably wouldve been close to 7.5 or so. You didnt need a crystal ball to see this coming.

So you're saying negotiating a fair deal for both parties, instead of ripping off the player through hardball tactics, engendering resentment in the clubhouse, is a bad strategy?

 

[Striiker]

Yeah, I know people like to look back, especially in short sample sizes and claim things as an absolute steal of a deal, but the contract needs to be judged, as you said, based on what was available at the time and the general projection of the player. I think we all knew TK was going to become a very good player, but he didnt have the raw stats or draft pedigree to command an outrageous deal, so he got paid in accordance with his peers. Likewise, Provorov, who, if he hadnt had a down year, probably wouldve been close to 7.5 or so. You didnt need a crystal ball to see this coming.

Yup, and the same thing applies to the Niskanen deal. For the record, I didn't have a real issue with it other than not wanting to trade Gudas and being concerned that Niskanen might be over the hill, but people were going way overboard early in the season and declaring the trade a massive steal, saying how great he was, and even talking about if we should re-sign him... and now look at what's happening. He seems to be slowing down, wearing out, and has individually struggled for large parts of the last month and a half. If the first part of this season was an unsustainable mirage, helped by ridiculously favorable usage, then it could end up biting us in the butt for the rest of his contract. That's why we can't jump to judge things so early, based on such a small sample size and ignoring context.

That said, he could also just be in a slump right now and start playing much better again, but we don't know. That's why we have to wait and see instead of making premature judgements.

 

[Striiker]

Since we're at about the midway point, I was looking through some numbers. The Flyers are basically the same mediocre quality of team they were at 5v5 last year and in 2016-17, with 2017-18 being a clear down year. That's got to be a disappointment.

Remember early in the year when people were saying "AV has this team playing great", as if he was responsible for the individual players performances and deserved credit?

I wonder why when the team was losing the same people weren't saying "AV has this team playing awful". Does he only get credit for the good and the bad is on the players?

 

[Starat327]

Yup, and the same thing applies to the Niskanen deal. For the record, I didn't have a real issue with it other than not wanting to trade Gudas and being concerned that Niskanen might be over the hill, but people were going way overboard early in the season and declaring the trade a massive steal, saying how great he was, and even talking about if we should re-sign him... and now look at what's happening. He seems to be slowing down, wearing out, and has individually struggled for large parts of the last month and a half. If the first part of this season was an unsustainable mirage, helped by ridiculously favorable usage, then it could end up biting us in the butt for the rest of his contract. That's why we can't jump to judge things so early, based on such a small sample size and ignoring context.

That said, he could also just be in a slump right now and start playing much better again, but we don't know. That's why we have to wait and see instead of making premature judgements.

I have no problem admitting I was a pretty big critic of the Gudas/Niskanen trade. That said, much like you, my issue was always the idea that Fletcher had not used his negotiating leverage to extract maximum value from the situation, and the fact that we were banking on Niskanen rebounding to his top pair self - else we were just trading a top 4 RHD for a top 4 RHD, which didnt really make sense. Niskanen had, until recently, regained the form that made the deal look like it was very much in our favor. There's also something to be said - though the degree of which is certainly unquantifiable - for Provorov's 'development' while playing with Niskanen. These things arent wasted on me. But again, my position was never that I didnt want Niskanen (I think the most I argued on this front is that we're banking on him returning to form, which is a risk we shouldnt be taking, given that we're taking on cap and retaining in the process), but rather that Fletcher wasn't shrewd enough during those negotiations.

The beginning of the year made it very easy for people to come back and say "Lol, we traded a lesser player for a better one, and you were against it" and have it at least be semi-valid. I have a hard time believing that if Niskanen started the year playing the way he is right now, we'd hear those same people admitting that it wasnt exactly a great deal. Fletcher made a business deal where he took on risk (niskanen returning to form) and liability(retained space). That's a no-no. If you're doing that in the business world, you're getting handsomely rewarded for it, and we weren't.

 

[Striiker]

I have no problem admitting I was a pretty big critic of the Gudas/Niskanen trade. That said, much like you, my issue was always the idea that Fletcher had not used his negotiating leverage to extract maximum value from the situation, and the fact that we were banking on Niskanen rebounding to his top pair self - else we were just trading a top 4 RHD for a top 4 RHD, which didnt really make sense. Niskanen had, until recently, regained the form that made the deal look like it was very much in our favor. There's also something to be said - though the degree of which is certainly unquantifiable - for Provorov's 'development' while playing with Niskanen. These things arent wasted on me. But again, my position was never that I didnt want Niskanen (I think the most I argued on this front is that we're banking on him returning to form, which is a risk we shouldnt be taking, given that we're taking on cap and retaining in the process), but rather that Fletcher wasn't shrewd enough during those negotiations.

The beginning of the year made it very easy for people to come back and say "Lol, we traded a lesser player for a better one, and you were against it" and have it at least be semi-valid. I have a hard time believing that if Niskanen started the year playing the way he is right now, we'd hear those same people admitting that it wasnt exactly a great deal. Fletcher made a business deal where he took on risk (niskanen returning to form) and liability(retained space). That's a no-no. If you're doing that in the business world, you're getting handsomely rewarded for it, and we weren't.

I also wonder how Gudas would have looked if his usage looked like this or how Niskanen would look if his usage didn't...

As a side note, I don't even believe Provorov has developed this year. I think he's the same player he's been, just with more luck and somehow even better usage than before.

 

[Starat327]

I also wonder how Gudas would have looked if his usage looked like this or how Niskanen would look if his usage didn't...

As a side note, I don't even believe Provorov has developed this year. I think he's the same player he's been, just with more luck and somehow even better usage than before.

Getting more favorable usage in terms of linemates certainly helps, but I think Provorov looks a little more composed this year. Smaller things like making reads that I didn't see him making previously. Again, I dont know if Niskanen had anything to do with that, but I'm at least open to the idea that something has rubbed off on him from Niskanen. There's undoubtedly some gray area between "provorov hasnt been affected by niskanen at all, and this is just natural development" and "niskanen has had some effect on Niskanen to improve small things in his game", which is where i think the truth lies.

 

[Striiker]

Getting more favorable usage in terms of linemates certainly helps, but I think Provorov looks a little more composed this year. Smaller things like making reads that I didn't see him making previously. Again, I dont know if Niskanen had anything to do with that, but I'm at least open to the idea that something has rubbed off on him from Niskanen. There's undoubtedly some gray area between "provorov hasnt been affected by niskanen at all, and this is just natural development" and "niskanen has had some effect on Niskanen to improve small things in his game", which is where i think the truth lies.

If anything I'd say it could be that Provorov trusts he has a decent partner and doesn't try to do too much, like when with guys like Mac or Hagg.

 

[Rebels57]

Just at 5on5 flyers goal differential:
Hayes -18
Braun -9
Niskanen -7
Stewart -7

Chuck's guys aren't exactly performing.

Did you really just bust out plus/minus?

Hayes has been very good defensively and is chipping in at an acceptable rate offensively.

Same for Niskanen up until the last 2-3 weeks when he is clearly worn down and needs a break.

Braun, I believe, has been the best dman on the team at supressing scoring chances so far.

Stewart is an abomination of course.

Go look at each of the last 5 years and you will see weird swings in plus/minus. Last year, for example, Voracek was -16.

 

[Rich Nixon]

They are a noticeably better team than years' past. They just aren't better enough at the moment for it to matter.

They've got a .592 points percentage right now, a pure 97-point pace. No team has ever missed the playoffs with that total, but the last two seasons have seen the record: the Panthers (2018) and Canadiens (2019) missed with 96 points (.585).

The season has a lot of runway left, but I'm a little disturbed that we don't really know who these guys are yet. 50 games will usually tell you, but I honestly don't know if this season is an extension of the last four or five or something else. They have 33 games left, and if you slice their season by really any 33-game stretch so far this year, you end up with 17 or 18 wins and 4 or 5 OT losses (97 or 98 points territory, if they repeat that). Remarkable consistency, if you're designing a team to finish in 9th place.

 

[deadhead]

Since we're at about the midway point, I was looking through some numbers. The Flyers are basically the same mediocre quality of team they were at 5v5 last year and in 2016-17, with 2017-18 being a clear down year. That's got to be a disappointment.

2019-20: CF 50.84%, xGF 49.53%, HDCF 49.57%, SV% 90.96 (Flyers .896/LA .908) (ST goals 35/32)
2018-19: CF 48.45%, xGF 48.74%, HDCF 50.18%, SV% 91.03 (.917/.925) (ST goals 44/62)
2017-18: CF 49.70%, xGF 49.05%, HDCF 49.19%, SV% 92.45 (.930/.928) (ST goals 57/64)
2016-17: CF 51.10%, xGF 50.22%, HDCF 50.00%, SV% 91.62 (.923/.929) (ST goals 58/59) - Schenn traded before the season
2015-16: CF 50.59%, xGF 49.07%, HDCF 49.76%, SV% 93.36 (.938/.930) (ST goals 56/58)
2014-15: CF 49.31%, xGF 48.02%, HDCF 46.46%, SV% 92.95 (.934/.928) (ST goals 63/67) - Hextall begins housecleaning
2013-14: CF 49.97%, xGF 49.44%, HDCF 49.69%, SV% 92.25 (.928/.928) (ST goals 66/59)
2011-12: CF 51.00%, xGF 51.75%, HDCF 53.75%, SV% 91.78 (.924/.927) (ST goals 72/67)
2010-11: CF 49.26%, xGF 50.01%, HDCF 51.30%, SV% 92.64 (.931/.928) (ST goals 62/59)
2009-10: CF 50.93%, xGF 52.87%, HDCF 52.27%, SV% 92.03 (.926/.926) (ST goals 73/64)

League average (LA) on Hockey reference is higher than SV% on NST)
The HR league average save % for this season doesn't look right, because that is a huge decline with no reason (no change in equipment this season).

What does jump out is the goalie collapse the last two seasons, when your goalie S% is that far below the league average, it's hard to contend.
Given bad goalie play and the loss of Lindblom and Patrick, I think AV is doing just fine.

The Flyers underachieved relative to their metrics in the 2009-10 regular season, but the playoff run is no mystery.
They overachieved the next season, so the playoff exit isn't a surprise.
2011-12 is weird, great regular season metrics but playoff collapse. Did an old team just wear down?

 

[Rebels57]

I also wonder how Gudas would have looked if his usage looked like this or how Niskanen would look if his usage didn't...

As a side note, I don't even believe Provorov has developed this year. I think he's the same player he's been, just with more luck and somehow even better usage than before.

That sure is an opinion.

 

[Psuhockey]

Remember early in the year when people were saying "AV has this team playing great", as if he was responsible for the individual players performances and deserved credit?

I wonder why when the team was losing the same people weren't saying "AV has this team playing awful". Does he only get credit for the good and the bad is on the players?

It goes both ways. Can kill a coach for crappy play and put all the success on the players.

In the end, coaching in hockey is largely overrated for both success and failure. It’s not completely irrelevant like the NBA but probably less so than a baseball manager and way less than a football coach.

 

[Starat327]

If anything I'd say it could be that Provorov trusts he has a decent partner and doesn't try to do too much, like when with guys like Mac or Hagg.

I'm sure that plays a part, as well. But like I said, that freedom gives him some room to explore things that maybe he wasnt comfortable doing before - and thus lets him develop some. Niskanen has, either directly, or indirectly, likely affected Provorov's play positively this season. That doesnt mean it's still the optimal pairing, but that doesn't mean it hasnt been beneficial, either.

 

[Tripod]

Let's just look at Frost vs Nick Suzuki since being drafted:

2017/18: Frost 112 points in 67 games, Suzuki 100 points in 64 games: EDGE FROST
2018/19: Frost 109 points in 58 games, Suzuki 104 points in 59 games: EDGE FROST
WJC 2019: Frost 8 points in 5 games, Suzuki 3 points in 5 games: EDGE FROST while on the same team
NHL: Frost 7 points in 18 games(6 at ES+1 SH), Suzuki 7 points in 18 games(6 at ES+1 PP): EVEN

At that point, the Flyers demote Frost while Montreal sticks with Suzuki.

Suzuki has since gotten 20 points in 32 games....a 51 point pace. Montreal stuck with him and he rewarded them with an uptick in play and production. He got better on the PP and now has 9 PP points. He was averaging 13:144 those first 18 games. Since that time, he is averaging 16:39 in TOI and is 4th on the team in points.

Obviously nothing is written in stone, but that "could" have been what happened with Frost. He was not getting dominated in games. Again, the last 5 games he played, in 4 of those games he was not on the ice for a goal against. He 100% could have have stayed as our 3rd best C giving us depth. Instead, we had Raffl as a #3C. We had Laughton as a #3C. Both failed and now Giroux is back at C.

But what the Suzuki comparison shows, is that opportunity matters. Montreal stuck with him. We didn't with Frost and should have. But hey, we have an AHL All Star!

 

[bennysflyers16]

Benny I feel like you make this same statement every 3 or so weeks haha

Difference is those are all vs teams we are fighting with

 

[Curufinwe]

I have no problem admitting I was a pretty big critic of the Gudas/Niskanen trade. That said, much like you, my issue was always the idea that Fletcher had not used his negotiating leverage to extract maximum value from the situation, and the fact that we were banking on Niskanen rebounding to his top pair self - else we were just trading a top 4 RHD for a top 4 RHD, which didnt really make sense. Niskanen had, until recently, regained the form that made the deal look like it was very much in our favor. There's also something to be said - though the degree of which is certainly unquantifiable - for Provorov's 'development' while playing with Niskanen. These things arent wasted on me. But again, my position was never that I didnt want Niskanen (I think the most I argued on this front is that we're banking on him returning to form, which is a risk we shouldnt be taking, given that we're taking on cap and retaining in the process), but rather that Fletcher wasn't shrewd enough during those negotiations.

The beginning of the year made it very easy for people to come back and say "Lol, we traded a lesser player for a better one, and you were against it" and have it at least be semi-valid. I have a hard time believing that if Niskanen started the year playing the way he is right now, we'd hear those same people admitting that it wasnt exactly a great deal. Fletcher made a business deal where he took on risk (niskanen returning to form) and liability(retained space). That's a no-no. If you're doing that in the business world, you're getting handsomely rewarded for it, and we weren't.

After all this time you still aren't looking at it correctly. The Capitals got a 3rd pairing dman, and the Flyers got a 1st pairing dman. That is the value Fletcher was able to extract because he had a lot of cap space at the time, and Washington did not.

 

[bennysflyers16]

That sure is an opinion.

Jesus Christ and Its possible Provy hasn't developed even more this year, this is next level the lengths some will go.

 

[Rebels57]

After all this time you still aren't looking at it correctly. The Capitals got a 3rd pairing dman, and the Flyers got a 1st pairing dman. That is the value Fletcher was able to extract because he had a lot of cap space at the time, and Washington did not.

Correct. Gudas has been used as the Caps #5 dman this year and in fact, they are rumored to be looking to trade for a top 4 defensemen at the deadline rather than promoting Gudas into the top 4.

 

[Striiker]

I'm sure that plays a part, as well. But like I said, that freedom gives him some room to explore things that maybe he wasnt comfortable doing before - and thus lets him develop some. Niskanen has, either directly, or indirectly, likely affected Provorov's play positively this season. That doesnt mean it's still the optimal pairing, but that doesn't mean it hasnt been beneficial, either.

Well again, I agree that Niskanen has positively effected his play, I just don’t think Provorov has individually changed as a player.

When I think of the word “develop” I’m thinking something has changed about a players individual ability, whether they’re stronger, faster, a better shot, or some other skill has improved... and I don’t think that’s the case.

 

[Striiker]

That sure is an opinion.

Playing better than last year isn't the same thing as developing.

He just played way below his own abilities in 2018-2019 and now he's back to where he was the year before. He's not a different player now than he was in 2017-2018.

He's also come back down to Earth lately, after an obviously unsustainable start.