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Prospect Info: 2019-20 Oilers Prospect Thread

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ImmuneEH

ImmuneEH

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Aerchon said:
Perspective. Many on this board had him a future #1 elite defenseman.

For his age he had an ok at best first pro year but nothing that even guarantees him to be a #6 in the nhl some day.

There is a huge gap between those two things. Thus why most say he had a terrible year.
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People hyped him HARD. He certainly has the tools (rock defensively, good offensively, can play in all situations, mean, physical). But there's a difference between being that guy in junior, pro, and NHL.
 
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Fourier

Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
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Aerchon said:
Perspective. Many on this board had him a future #1 elite defenseman.

For his age he had an ok at best first pro year but nothing that even guarantees him to be a #6 in the nhl some day.

There is a huge gap between those two things. Thus why most say he had a terrible year.
Click to expand...
I don't think there were many who had him pegged as an elite #1. But his stock did rise as many got to hear about him for perhaps the first time. I think his year in Bak is also quite consistent with what I would have expected from him. Samorukov played juts down the road so I've known about him since before the draft. He played in Guelph on a very bad team in his draft year but the games I saw he stood out as a raw talent. In particular he really turned it on in the latter half of his draft year.

Here is what Brock Otten wrote about him in August following the draft:

Dmitri Samorukov - Guelph Storm
Loved this pick by the Oilers this year. Samorukov has one of the highest ceilings of any defender taken from the OHL this past draft. He can impact the game at both ends of the ice. The start to his year was rough and he appeared to be going through quite the learning curve; playing in a new league and for a poor team. But, he got better and better every month and saved his best performance for the U18's. He's really the complete package in terms of possessing a skill set. Mobility, physical aggressiveness, big point shot, puck skill. It's just about putting it all together and learning the position. When to go for the big hit. Making better reads in coverage and chasing less. Picking his spots offensively. Getting his shot through to the net more effectively on the PP. I suppose what I'm saying is that over the course of the next two years, we'll get to see what type of hockey sense Samorukov possesses. Guelph will aim to be better next year in a tough Western Conference. Their younger (but extremely talented) players will all be a year older and if they progress well, this is a team that should make the playoffs. I see Samorukov doubling his points totals from last year and hitting the 40+ point mark.

Now to qualify the bolded statement that was not a prime year for OHL defensemen. But I think it was a fair statement. Factor in that Samorukov is a June born player so he was one of the youngest guys in his draft class and I think Otten's assessment has more impact. The rest of his comments were in my opinion spot on as were his glimpses into the future.

Samorukov always had offensive potential as Otten suggests. But he is a coachable guy who took his defensive responsibilities seriously and he worked hard to get better in that area. I'd even say he over compensated in good part because someone had to counter Merkley's complete unwillingness to play defense. As I have said before, I don't think it is any coincidence that his offense took off when Merkley got traded.

This year it seems that Samorukov again focused on the defensive side of his game. My sense is that he made a similar adjustment to the AHL as he originally did in the OHL. With experience I think we will see a lot more of his very good two way game.

So is he an elite #1 in training. Likely not. But as prospects go I'd say he is far more likely to turn into an everyday NHL'er than some might think.
 
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CycloneSweep

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Aerchon said:
Perspective. Many on this board had him a future #1 elite defenseman.

For his age he had an ok at best first pro year but nothing that even guarantees him to be a #6 in the nhl some day.

There is a huge gap between those two things. Thus why most say he had a terrible year.
Click to expand...
Where are people saying terrible year? I literally said rough. Rough isn't bad, rough is up and down. Below expectations but not abysmal.
 
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CycloneSweep

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North said:
Who’s expectations?
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The organization's, fans, media, everyone. They were talking like they had very high hopes from him in his last OHL season and he had a very average at best AHL season. What's wrong with expecting more than what we got this year? Doesn't mean he is bad, or will be bad, expectations readjust, or just look at it as an off year.

I'm sure the org feels the same way for Maksimov. They don't think he is shit but they are probably dissapointed he didn't have a better year.

Edit: Hell he was allegedly one of our most asked about prospects from other GMs, I doubt that's so now from that season. Hype and expectations for prospects from a GM standpoint fluctuate all the time.
 
Bryanbryoil

Bryanbryoil

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CycloneSweep said:
The organization's, fans, media, everyone. They were talking like they had very high hopes from him in his last OHL season and he had a very average at best AHL season. What's wrong with expecting more than what we got this year? Doesn't mean he is bad, or will be bad, expectations readjust, or just look at it as an off year.

I'm sure the org feels the same way for Maksimov. They don't think he is shit but they are probably dissapointed he didn't have a better year.

Edit: Hell he was allegedly one of our most asked about prospects from other GMs, I doubt that's so now from that season. Hype and expectations for prospects from a GM standpoint fluctuate all the time.
Click to expand...

I would say that it's fair that he didn't put up as many points as some of us had hoped, but look at the competition that he had on D last season. A NHL ready Caleb Jones, stud offensive D prospect Bouchard and AHL/NHL tweeners Persson and Lagesson as well as a much older guy coming off a great season in Day. Then add in that the Condors attack was much worse than the previous season and it is no surprise that his numbers weren't that great offensively.

Comparing Samorukov to other recent D prospects that have gone through our ranks:

Samorukov 47gp. 2-8-10 -5 24pim. 58sog. 0PPG
Bouchard 54gp. 7-29-36 -10 44pim. 139sog. 4PPG
Bear 37gp. 6-12-18 -8 12pim. 55sog. 0PPG
Jones 58gp. 2-15-17 -25 43pim. 73sog. 0PPG

He had the best +/- of the group, was the second least penalized and overall had a season similar to Jones offensively but a much better season defensively. He had 1 less ES goal than Bouchard

When looking at ES production:
Samorukov 47gp. 2-7-9
Bouchard 54gp. 3-16-19
Bear 37gp. 6-5-11
Jones 58gp. 2-9-11

He is right where he should be IMO and if the AHL has a season and if he returns for it, I suspect that he will show significant improvement like Bear and Jones did in their sophomore seasons.
 
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Tobias Kahun

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Oct 3, 2017
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CycloneSweep said:
The organization's, fans, media, everyone. They were talking like they had very high hopes from him in his last OHL season and he had a very average at best AHL season. What's wrong with expecting more than what we got this year? Doesn't mean he is bad, or will be bad, expectations readjust, or just look at it as an off year.

I'm sure the org feels the same way for Maksimov. They don't think he is shit but they are probably dissapointed he didn't have a better year.

Edit: Hell he was allegedly one of our most asked about prospects from other GMs, I doubt that's so now from that season. Hype and expectations for prospects from a GM standpoint fluctuate all the time.
Click to expand...
Maybe you just had unrealistic expectations, the AHL is a hard league, expecting him to come in and dominate is ridiculous, but then again, maybe you have an inside man in bakersfield sending you all the tape.
 
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Aerchon

Aerchon

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Good as place as any to post some random thoughts about our defense now and moving forward.

Klefbom: has had at least one good year offensively where he showed off his Klefbomb of a shot. Has improved immensely defensively. Still battles injury and consistency as do all/most defenseman. Is a big part of our defense and the team struggles when he is injured. A top 3 defenseman on most teams. On a sweat heart deal. If not for his injury issues I rate this player all but untradable because of his value to this team. Just turned 27 and is just entering his prime for defense. Signed two more years. We move him we have to bring back someone as good or better. Extremely unlikely anyone passes him on the depth chart prior to his contract expiring.

Nurse: Had an off year where he did not develop much offensively or defensively. Still a top 3 defenseman imo albiet his decision making in all 3 zones did not indicate a player entering his prime. His 2 year contract walks him to UFA status which is stupid beyond belief but not coincidentally expires the same time as Klefbom's. I believe both Klefbom and Nurse are too value able to move prior to the end of the 2021/22 season. Still young still growing even at the end of this contract I would be leary of moving him as experience for him "should" count a lot towards effectiveness.

Larsson: Very similar to Klefbom in age, cap hit, and effectiveness except watered down. More injury prone if possible. Movable only if Bouchard has a monster year at both ends of the ice.

Russell: Love the player, a solid 4/5 defender, but completely expendable due to cap restraints and a deep group of prospects.

Benning: Grossly under rated by many. A solid #5 RD cost controlled RFA. Young as well entering his prime. Also only expendable if Bouchard has a monster season. Moving him or Larsson is a risk that dances around RFA status, cap hit, and development.

Bear: Monster year but skating and size still a bit of an issue. Need more sample size before cementing himself as a bonified top 3 Rd but very likely a top 4 fixture for the foreseeable future.

Jones: Very impressive this year but in a very limited role. If all goes well unlikely to be protected in next year's expansion draft. Even not being as high as most on this player short of him struggling the most likely player drafted by Seattle. Him or Benning. Nothing more than #7 atm but likely to be a acceptable 4/5 when Nurse/Klefbom contracts expire.

Bouchard: Our whole defense hinges around the progress/development of this player. Unless this player is deemed top 4 ready to start the next season the only truely expendable defenseman we have is Russell. Having said that he has been groomed perfectly and has a pedigree far beyond anything the Oilers have had in a generation. By projections "should" be far better than anyone in the system albiet I would expect that to be 3 to 5 years away at best. Trading this asset for anything is foolish due to his high end talent and RFA status.

Laggesson: Another depth player that could surprise but even as is can help softer losing a warrior like Russell. Or Larsson. Or Benning.

Samorukov: Not in the Oilers plans until later next year at best but like Laggesson another piece that makes the left side log jamb all but improbable for all those players to still be in Edmonton past the 2021/22 season. I project Samorukov optimistically to eventually be a 4/5. Still more unlikely than likely to even be an nhler.

Broberg: Higher upside than Samorukov but further behind in his development. I think there is more wishful thinking than serious projection to place this prospect as anything higher than a fringe top 3 defenseman in a long long time.

The reason I posted this is to really point out how hard it would be to move anyone out of this system until the end of the 2021/22 season post expansion draft. Projecting guys like Jones, Samorukov, or Broberg to take the place of Nurse or Klefbom short term doesn't work.
 
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CycloneSweep

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Bryanbryoil said:
I would say that it's fair that he didn't put up as many points as some of us had hoped, but look at the competition that he had on D last season. A NHL ready Caleb Jones, stud offensive D prospect Bouchard and AHL/NHL tweeners Persson and Lagesson as well as a much older guy coming off a great season in Day. Then add in that the Condors attack was much worse than the previous season and it is no surprise that his numbers weren't that great offensively.

Comparing Samorukov to other recent D prospects that have gone through our ranks:

Samorukov 47gp. 2-8-10 -5 24pim. 58sog. 0PPG
Bouchard 54gp. 7-29-36 -10 44pim. 139sog. 4PPG
Bear 37gp. 6-12-18 -8 12pim. 55sog. 0PPG
Jones 58gp. 2-15-17 -25 43pim. 73sog. 0PPG

He had the best +/- of the group, was the second least penalized and overall had a season similar to Jones offensively but a much better season defensively. He had 1 less ES goal than Bouchard

When looking at ES production:
Samorukov 47gp. 2-7-9
Bouchard 54gp. 3-16-19
Bear 37gp. 6-5-11
Jones 58gp. 2-9-11

He is right where he should be IMO and if the AHL has a season and if he returns for it, I suspect that he will show significant improvement like Bear and Jones did in their sophomore seasons.
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That's entirely fair.

Like I said before and I will say again, I didn't say he had a bad season by any means, or that his trajectory is off or anything. I said he had a rough, not bad year. You are right that he is doing similar to some of our other recent prospects that have turned out. I would say their first years outside of Bouchard were rough too but they did figure it out. Rough isn't bad, it's rough. It's up and down, it's below expectations. Samorukov took a bit to get used to the OHL too and ended up doing great there, I feel like the same for pro play will be true for him
 
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MuzzaFuzza

MuzzaFuzza

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Fourier said:
I don't think Samorukov had a rough year at all last year.
Click to expand...

Yeah some people underestimate the jump in the play from CHL to AHL, especially for dman. He was never going to come in and dominate. By all accounts he showed a bit better as the season went on too, and on an awful team.

I'm not as high on Samorukov as some are around here but his play early on in the KHL has been promising.
 
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Panda Bear

Panda Bear

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Apr 2, 2010
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Aerchon said:
Perspective. Many on this board had him a future #1 elite defenseman.
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what the f*** nobody was saying that

a couple people were saying that he was a better prospect than Bouchard and could be a #1

feel free to find many posts
 
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