Speculation: 2019-20 News/Rumors,Roster thread Post Deadline

[Ziggy Stardust]

The development staff will be judged based on how kids like JAD, Thomas, Dudas, etc. turn out over the next 1-3 seasons. Looking at how Wagner, Amadio, Luff, Rhempal, etc are fairing, there isn’t much to point to in terms of growth. The best young players have been Iafallo, Kempe and Lizotte. And two of those are college UFAs who have only played at the nhl level.

Well, look at where Amadio and Wagner were drafted and Luff and Rempal were unsigned prospects. What are your expectations from them? Not everyone is going to be a top line forward. You're also omitting defensemen.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

At the end of the day the issue I have mostly with what I hear on this board. Is that the majority of people posting here are very confident that just about every single prospect we pick and will pick should marinate for years at lower levels before they play in the NHL. And that If they don't, we are hurting their development.

Well I think when you look around the league very few good players spent years developing at lower levels, in fact that is normally a pretty strong indicator that the prospect will have a dissapointing career. There are a lot of low impact players that follow that path However.

For example why are we so sure that Kaliyev who by all accounts is brutal on defense. Will develop defensively by staying longer in the league that he hasn't developed defensively lol. It makes no sense to me. I think you put that guy with Kopi, Doughty, Brown, Lewis, NHL coaches, NHL expectations, etc... And he might rapidly improve defensively.

Why do we think that Turcotte needs to show that he is a tremendous scorer before playing full time in the NHL? What if the pressure of trying to accomplish that at lower levels changes his style of play and ruins some of what we liked most about him? We picked him because he had a very mature game, skill, character, speed, and two way potential. He very well might develop his game most effectively by being put in a situation where he isn't expected to dominate offensively and instead just work on being the best version of himself absent of high scoring expectations.

We think Fagemo is more than a year away. Yet he just led the WJC in scoring, has two full seasons of pro experience and is 20 years old. He needs what 3 or 4 SHL years before it makes sense to call him up to LAK? Maybe, but it just seems like we are getting ridiculous with the amount of time we think players should marinate.

This line of thinking is consistent with almost all of our prospects. We had the best prospect pool going into LAST season and yet still people on here think almost all of these guys are not ready for this upcoming season.

I could almost guarantee you that the majority of people on here think that unless we get Laf in this draft then whoever it is should not play in the NHL next season. Which is just applying a 1 size fits all development theory that this board has and which doesn't seem to be shared by the Majority of the NHL.

At what point does the "more years in lower leagues before the NHL= better development" argument just start to diverge from reality?

When I brought up Kopi and Pettersson. Both were met with something along the lines of "he isn't a good example because he didn't spend years developing at lower levels in the organization so that doesn't count." And in my opinion that line of thinking supports my position, not counters it.

I don't think that's the case. I think you're arguing against specific posts, but not an overall feeling. I don't think anyone is saying every single prospect needs to marinate at lower levels, but where we've picked, those guys typically have to. And we also want people to come in and win/earn spots, not just be handed them. But some players have clear things to work on, particularly those drafted outside the first round, as those are the guys with apparent 'warts' that need to be fixed.

I don't think anyone at all has made a hard and fast ruling on Kaliyev. But he can only do NHL or juniors next year--so that will be a question to ask. Will he be well-served playing all year here, or continuing to get the biggest, hardest minutes in the OHL? I think most will disagree with you that he didn't improve his overall game this year in the O, where are you getting that report/vibe?

I think the argument with respect to Turcotte is not whether he can play in the NHL, it's whether he's physically prepared to be a Mike-Richards-style body thrower, and if he'll be better served being the #1 guy on the AHL squad or the #2-#3 guy on the NHL squad.

I haven't seen anyone say Fagemo needs 4 SEL years before playing in LA. I have seen people suggest he needs to get used to the NA rink, and if you watch him, he's just incredibly raw.

The most important point is this: I've posted many times the incredibly short list of guys who make the NHL at 18, then 19, then the major breakouts at age 20-21. It's basically only the previous draft's top-tier picks that play at 18, a good amount of bluechippers at 19, then the flood starts at 20 and 21. That's not exclusive to this forum or the Kings. It's not a blanket "more years in lower leagues = better development" policy because that's where players have gotten lost in the Oilers and Stars orgs, for example. And it's also heavily affected by the AHL age rules. Overall, all I'm saying is that we're often given pretty specific details of each organization's developmental structures and some really don't have effective systems and that is borne out in results, as well. Give players behind McDavid and Draisaitl the LA Kings depth development system and those guys are making yearly playoff runs, imo. And that should change for the Oilers in the next couple of years, too.

Edit: hell without looking I bet our 7th rounders from the last decade have played more games combined than all Oilers non-1st-round picks.

Double Edit: this was from myself a few years ago, can't find the more recent one now:

There were 3 18 years olds in the nhl last year and they were all bluechippers--Kotkaniemi, Dahlin, Svechnikov.

22 19 year olds got a taste, but only 6 played more than 40 games, all relative bluechippers--Brady Tkachuk, Chytil, Heiskanen, Robert Thomas, Rasmussen, Hischier.

40 20 years olds got a taste, but only 15 played more than 40 games, again relative bluechippers (or surprises like Jesper Bratt)

Those numbers all basically double at age 21.

It's a fact-based and fair assertion that 3 years is minimum for most NHL prospects.

Fagemo is a little different because this is already his draft + 1 year as he's 19 and playing vs men. I could see him AHLing next year and getting an NHL taste before full time duty the following year.

 

[bland]

Well, look at where Amadio and Wagner were drafted and Luff and Rempal were unsigned prospects. What are your expectations from them? Not everyone is going to be a top line forward. You're also omitting defensemen.

Matt Roy and Sean Walker are this staff's only shining examples, and they are both blueliners. Kempe has been a disappointment given his ability. Vilardi was a top pick who appears to be on the proper path to maximize that picks value.

None of the other skaters who have graduated to the Kings are anything other than warm bodies who would struggle to make most NHL rosters. And that is perfectly fine given their draft positioning.

I have absolutely no problem with former pro players on the developmental squad - who would the kids best learn from? The only real criticism I have of that group is that until Roy and Walker came up, they hadn't developed any overachievers - nobody really had outperformed their expectations. Maybe that is harsh, but it is what it is.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Matt Roy and Sean Walker are this staff's only shining examples, and they are both blueliners. Kempe has been a disappointment given his ability. Vilardi was a top pick who appears to be on the proper path to maximize that picks value.

None of the other skaters who have graduated to the Kings are anything other than warm bodies who would struggle to make most NHL rosters. And that is perfectly fine given their draft positioning.

I have absolutely no problem with former pro players on the developmental squad - who would the kids best learn from? The only real criticism I have of that group is that until Roy and Walker came up, they hadn't developed any overachievers - nobody really had outperformed their expectations. Maybe that is harsh, but it is what it is.

I'd agree with that assessment, and it's largely true. Kempe seemed to start performing a lot better once he was shifted to wing, and as one of his harsher critics, he's still only 23 and can get better. At the very least he's a top nine forward who can chip in with 10+ goals and 30+ points. I do think he has it in him to put up better numbers than that, but with Kempe the issue is his drive more so than his talent.

The new management has had three drafts under their belts thus far, so a lot of the results from their drafting is TBD, but there's a lot more promise in the group of prospects they've assembled than what we've witnessed over the past decade.

 

[funky]

Matt Roy and Sean Walker are this staff's only shining examples, and they are both blueliners. Kempe has been a disappointment given his ability. Vilardi was a top pick who appears to be on the proper path to maximize that picks value.
None of the other skaters who have graduated to the Kings are anything other than warm bodies who would struggle to make most NHL rosters. And that is perfectly fine given their draft positioning.

I have absolutely no problem with former pro players on the developmental squad - who would the kids best learn from? The only real criticism I have of that group is that until Roy and Walker came up, they hadn't developed any overachievers - nobody really had outperformed their expectations. Maybe that is harsh, but it is what it is.

Okay, I think you have to high of expectations. Kempe was a #1 pick yes, but he was picked in the 29th spot. He was projected at best to be a middle 6 player.


Let’s look at other players picked at 29


2010 - Anaheim - Emerson Etem
2011- Vancouver- Nicklas Jansen
2012 - New Jersey - Stephan Matteau
2013 - Dallas - Jason Dickenson
2014 - LA - Adrian Kempe
2015 - Columbus- Gabriel Carlsson
2016 - Boston - Trent Fredrick
2017 - Chicago - Henri Jokiharju - finally someone


Now looking at those names I would easily argue that Kempe is the best of the bunch. He was never ever going to be that star top 6 player. We as Kings fans seem to wish that because we had no other prospect to be hopeful about and put higher than normal expectations on Adrian.

looking at the people picked in the same position as Kempe over the last years I would argue that our Development team did better then expected just getting him into a middle 6 role. It wasn’t like he was a can’t miss top 5 prospect, a top 10 guy or even in the top half of the 1st. He was a guy 2 picks away from being a second rounder.

just can’t buy any arguement crapping on the development staff using a prospect from the back end of the 1st who has made the NHL and actually contributed. Had he been put on wing the first place maybe he would be further along but that’s the coaches decision not the development staff. Kempe is right where he was projected to be.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Well, look at where Amadio and Wagner were drafted and Luff and Rempal were unsigned prospects. What are your expectations from them? Not everyone is going to be a top line forward. You're also omitting defensemen.

I added some D. My point is that there is no track record of success. I get your excuses, I just don’t buy them.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I added some D. My point is that there is no track record of success. I get your excuses, I just don’t buy them.

So what’s your rationale? That other development staffs could turn Austin Wagner into Brad Marchand and Michael Amadio into Patrice Bergeron? You have some unreasonable expectations if you think the development staff is at fault for the output of players who were drafted in the mid-late rounds.

 

[funky]

So what’s your rationale? That other development staffs could turn Austin Wagner into Brad Marchand and Michael Amadio into Patrice Bergeron? You have some unreasonable expectations if you think the development staff is at fault for the output of players who were drafted in the mid-late rounds.

This is exactly it. Until this last year they really have had no type in talent to work with other than Vilardi. Even he was picked 12th overall with major health setbacks.

Look at all the guys in the NHL that were picked in later rounds, were free agent signings, or that should never have ever had a chance of making the NHL. This last season alone we finished with:

Anderson, Roy, and Walker on D

Lizotte, Wagner, Iafallo, Amadio, Porky, and a re-pop in Frk up front

None of these guys were top picks, non were earmarked for the NHL when picked or signed. Frk was a career AHL, ECHL who upped his game in Ontario. I don’t care who are developing stuff far, they seem to be doing an OK job with what they were given

 

[Johnny Utah]

I think this next 1-2 years are going to be big for the organization and where the prospects fit.

Players like Kempe, Amadio, Wagner have shown they can bottom 6 players...can they be top 6? That is TBD.

Walker, Roy and MacD have transitioned nicely on D. But it's basically Doughty, those three, and a UFA in Hutton. Does Anderson make it full time?

Can Vilardi be a full time NHL'er?

Where does Kupari fit after the next 1-2 seasons after getting injured in his first year pro.

Does JAD make the team next season?

How does Akil Thomas fare in his first year pro in the AHL?

Where do Turcotte and Kaliyev end up?

Do Clague and Bjornfot make the NHL next season?

 

[DoktorJeep]

So what’s your rationale? That other development staffs could turn Austin Wagner into Brad Marchand and Michael Amadio into Patrice Bergeron? You have some unreasonable expectations if you think the development staff is at fault for the output of players who were drafted in the mid-late rounds.

I expect results and success. It doesn’t really matter which players turn out as long as some do. And they don’t need to be all stars, great way to move the goal post as usual. The story with this management group is zero success with the team as players and that losing culture continues into the present.

For the majority history of this franchise, management has put out an afterthought of a product because no one cares about hockey in LA outside a small group of overly loyal fans. Many of whom are happy enough to make endless excuses about why there isn’t success. It’s the same story as back in the Dave Taylor days when fans were lining up to kiss Tim Liewieckes shoes and parrot the idea that a team in LA can’t afford to outspend a team in a dump like Detroit.

It’s the little brother attitude that kills this franchise and the fans are a big part of low expectations and getting by on shit results.

 

[KingsFan7824]

#3) Doughty
#11) Carter (traded for a 1st and a former 3rd overall pick)
#11) Kopitar
#11) Bernier
#13) Brown
#17) Lewis
#22) Gagne
#24) Richards (traded for a former 5th overall pick)
#28) Williams (traded for a former 2nd round pick)
#32) Voynov
#35) Clifford
#36 and #46) Stoll (traded for at least a top 4D)
#44) Greene (traded for at least a top 4D)
#69) Fraser
#72) Quick
#95) Martinez
#109) King
#134) Scuderi
#163) Richardson (traded for a 2nd round pick)
#186) Nolan
#199) Mitchell
#---) Penner (traded for a 1st round pick)

That's a Cup roster. Only 1 top 10 pick. 9 of the 22 are from the 1st round. 13 of the 22 are from the 1st or 2nd round. More than half the roster, but we're not half way through the draft yet. 3 of the 22 required a 1st round pick to acquire. 2 of them required 2nd round picks. What makes it a little more difficult is that Bernier, Gagne, and Clifford didn't play too big a role in the 2012 playoffs, so I don't know if they should be counted. Or, you could also look at Bernier as essentially a wasted asset, because he was a top half of the 1st round pick that never left the bench. Which could be added to the #4 pick in 2007, which makes the Kings actually winning the Cup all the more impressive(or improbable).

The players taken after the 2nd round were the 4th C, the #1 goalie, 3rd pair D, 3rd line LW, top 4 defensive D, 4th line LW, 4th line RW, top 4 defensive D, and 2nd line LW. Of course Scuderi, Mitchell, and Penner were not developed by the Kings.

It's a mixed bag. Over time, you have to get something from the later rounds, but the majority of your team is probably coming from the talent that was already apparent at 18 years of age. Go to 2014, with Gaborik, Regehr, Pearson, and Toffoli, and it's that much more the case. Muzzin on the other hand is a developmental success story. Although, wasn't he supposed to be taken higher in the draft before his back injury? I forget if he was ever considered to be a big time prospect at this point.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

#3) Doughty

Doughty was drafted at #2

 

[KingsFan7824]

Doughty was drafted at #2

 

[Statto]

I think the incredibly large number of people that work for even a garbage NHL team have a much better feel for hockey and development than you are giving them credit for.

Most of what you are saying is largely correct but you are acting as if you have this great insight that people who work for (insert bad NHL organization) don't understand.

Remember I am saying about 10% of the time a player is significantly impacted by not just his NHL teams development, but by the difference between his NHL teams development and a better NHL teams development that he potentially could have gotten too.

So 90% is the influence of his parents, coaches, friends, his personal drive to get better, everything that he learned up until the age of 18, that made him who he was. I'm supposed to believe that this percentage should be much smaller. Please.

I don’t have a great insight. I think everyone knows what has to be done but achieving it is a whole other ball game. I’m just making the point that there are a vast number of different aspects to a players development, a significant number of which are outside of the players control. A players success or degree of success will absolutely be affected those different factors.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I expect results and success. It doesn’t really matter which players turn out as long as some do. And they don’t need to be all stars, great way to move the goal post as usual. The story with this management group is zero success with the team as players and that losing culture continues into the present.

For the majority history of this franchise, management has put out an afterthought of a product because no one cares about hockey in LA outside a small group of overly loyal fans. Many of whom are happy enough to make endless excuses about why there isn’t success. It’s the same story as back in the Dave Taylor days when fans were lining up to kiss Tim Liewieckes shoes and parrot the idea that a team in LA can’t afford to outspend a team in a dump like Detroit.

It’s the little brother attitude that kills this franchise and the fans are a big part of low expectations and getting by on shit results.

You’re crying over the Kings developing NHL players who were taken in the mid-late rounds. When I challenged you, you're the one who is started to move the goal posts. I ask what you expect from those players and you give a vague answer that doesn’t even address the question. Good job. You have a future in politics.

 

[bland]

Okay, I think you have to high of expectations. Kempe was a #1 pick yes, but he was picked in the 29th spot. He was projected at best to be a middle 6 player.


Let’s look at other players picked at 29


2010 - Anaheim - Emerson Etem
2011- Vancouver- Nicklas Jansen
2012 - New Jersey - Stephan Matteau
2013 - Dallas - Jason Dickenson
2014 - LA - Adrian Kempe
2015 - Columbus- Gabriel Carlsson
2016 - Boston - Trent Fredrick
2017 - Chicago - Henri Jokiharju - finally someone


Now looking at those names I would easily argue that Kempe is the best of the bunch. He was never ever going to be that star top 6 player. We as Kings fans seem to wish that because we had no other prospect to be hopeful about and put higher than normal expectations on Adrian.

looking at the people picked in the same position as Kempe over the last years I would argue that our Development team did better then expected just getting him into a middle 6 role. It wasn’t like he was a can’t miss top 5 prospect, a top 10 guy or even in the top half of the 1st. He was a guy 2 picks away from being a second rounder.

just can’t buy any arguement crapping on the development staff using a prospect from the back end of the 1st who has made the NHL and actually contributed. Had he been put on wing the first place maybe he would be further along but that’s the coaches decision not the development staff. Kempe is right where he was projected to be.

No, Kempe has been a disappointment. I don't care what round he was picked in, he has underperformed in relation to his ability. And that is an indictment of the developmental team.

We all love his tools and his gumption, but he simply doesn't produce.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You may have committed light treason.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

#3) Doughty
#11) Carter (traded for a 1st and a former 3rd overall pick)
#11) Kopitar
#11) Bernier
#13) Brown
#17) Lewis
#22) Gagne
#24) Richards (traded for a former 5th overall pick)
#28) Williams (traded for a former 2nd round pick)
#32) Voynov
#35) Clifford
#36 and #46) Stoll (traded for at least a top 4D)
#44) Greene (traded for at least a top 4D)
#69) Fraser
#72) Quick
#95) Martinez
#109) King
#134) Scuderi
#163) Richardson (traded for a 2nd round pick)
#186) Nolan
#199) Mitchell
#---) Penner (traded for a 1st round pick)

That's a Cup roster. Only 1 top 10 pick. 9 of the 22 are from the 1st round. 13 of the 22 are from the 1st or 2nd round. More than half the roster, but we're not half way through the draft yet. 3 of the 22 required a 1st round pick to acquire. 2 of them required 2nd round picks. What makes it a little more difficult is that Bernier, Gagne, and Clifford didn't play too big a role in the 2012 playoffs, so I don't know if they should be counted. Or, you could also look at Bernier as essentially a wasted asset, because he was a top half of the 1st round pick that never left the bench. Which could be added to the #4 pick in 2007, which makes the Kings actually winning the Cup all the more impressive(or improbable).

The players taken after the 2nd round were the 4th C, the #1 goalie, 3rd pair D, 3rd line LW, top 4 defensive D, 4th line LW, 4th line RW, top 4 defensive D, and 2nd line LW. Of course Scuderi, Mitchell, and Penner were not developed by the Kings.

It's a mixed bag. Over time, you have to get something from the later rounds, but the majority of your team is probably coming from the talent that was already apparent at 18 years of age. Go to 2014, with Gaborik, Regehr, Pearson, and Toffoli, and it's that much more the case. Muzzin on the other hand is a developmental success story. Although, wasn't he supposed to be taken higher in the draft before his back injury? I forget if he was ever considered to be a big time prospect at this point.

But as you point out--you likely have to do both things.

If you're JUST developing depth--you get the Kings of the last few years.

If you're JUST relying on home runs in the early 1st--you get the Oilers/Sabres.

Chicago and LA followed nearly the same model of being able to blend both and dominated the first half of the decade. Pittsburgh's about the same, though they've nearly ALWAYS had depth issues/defense issues. And if you can't draft it, you trade for it (pittsburgh/Washington), but that's got a time limit and some very obvious limitations/diminishing returns.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

No, Kempe has been a disappointment. I don't care what round he was picked in, he has underperformed in relation to his ability. And that is an indictment of the developmental team.

We all love his tools and his gumption, but he simply doesn't produce.

Even Adrian himself admitted that his dad would get on him that he needs to play with the same intensity as his brother. His lack of consistency and finishing ability is on him. I’d find more fault in the staff for believing he’s a center, but he’s starting to play at a better pace now that he’s been shifted to wing.

He should be a close to 20-goal, 40-point winger, but it’s his consistency and lack of finish that is holding back Kempe from being a top six forward, but he’s still an NHL player filling a top nine role. In terms of points per game, he’s matched his career best from two seasons ago, but his shooting percentage is lower than the previous two seasons.

He’s just not much of a scoring threat, and I don’t know if you’re aware of this, but that was the critique that scouts had of Kempe in his draft year. He never has been a consistent goal scorer or point producer. If he was, he wouldn’t have been a late first rounder.

 

[ibleedkings]

I can't stand watching Kempe on the top pp unit. It's something that doesn't work and it's frustrating.

 

[funky]

No, Kempe has been a disappointment. I don't care what round he was picked in, he has underperformed in relation to his ability. And that is an indictment of the developmental team.

We all love his tools and his gumption, but he simply doesn't produce.

I will disagree as I dont think Kempe has great hockey IQ, never has. You can only teach a guy like that so much, can't teach instinct. He is in my eyes a bull in a china shop. Forces his way into the offensive zone but then appears to overthink? possible underthink? what to do next. He is what he is. An everyday NHL player who is still improving now that he is on the wing with less responsibility. He will score goals, will provide some punch and he will play all over the lineup. Not bad for a 29th overall.

 

[DoktorJeep]

No, Kempe has been a disappointment. I don't care what round he was picked in, he has underperformed in relation to his ability. And that is an indictment of the developmental team.

We all love his tools and his gumption, but he simply doesn't produce.

Kempe was developing fine in his second season with the opportunity which opened up when Carter was injured.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Kempe was developing fine in his second season with the opportunity which opened up when Carter was injured.

He was on a roll in the first two months of the season, but then he cooled down considerably as the season progressed.
Adrian Kempe 2017-18 Splits | Hockey-Reference.com

14 goals and 23 points in 48 games prior to the all-star break, shooting at over 18%.

After the all-star break, he scores 2 goals and 14 points in 33 games, shooting at 4.4%.

That's on the player. As the season wore on, Kempe's intensity and aggressiveness splintered off. His issues with consistency isn't something a development coach can teach.

You can't teach a guy who has always been an okay point producer to suddenly become a scoring machine. Look at Kempe's numbers throughout his career, he's never put up big numbers at any level.

 

[BringTheReign]

I can't stand watching Kempe on the top pp unit. It's something that doesn't work and it's frustrating.

I agree once they're in the offensive zone on the PP, but he provides a zone entry option that's valuable given the lack of offensive talent.

Kopitar excels at this, but it's so predictable that other teams can game plan against it, especially when he has to start below his own faceoff dots. Doughty used to be great at this as well, but given that his hockey sense goes from elite to try-hard when the Kings aren't contending for a playoff spot, we can write him off as well.

 

[DoktorJeep]

He was on a roll in the first two months of the season, but then he cooled down considerably as the season progressed.
Adrian Kempe 2017-18 Splits | Hockey-Reference.com

14 goals and 23 points in 48 games prior to the all-star break, shooting at over 18%.

After the all-star break, he scores 2 goals and 14 points in 33 games, shooting at 4.4%.

That's on the player. As the season wore on, Kempe's intensity and aggressiveness splintered off. His issues with consistency isn't something a development coach can teach.

You can't teach a guy who has always been an okay point producer to suddenly become a scoring machine. Look at Kempe's numbers throughout his career, he's never put up big numbers at any level.

Teaching a player how to be a consistent is one of the goals of a development staff. I could buy the argument that Kempe needed more time in the AHL. But he remains the top draft pick to pass through the Kings system for the current dev staff. And his results have under performed his prospect potential.

Saying that it is on the player for underperforming or pointing out their low draft position doesn’t hold water in my opinion when there are zero prospect wins in over 5 years with the development staff team.