Speculation: Armchair GM 2024-25 Season, Craig Conroy's Can Do Calgary Flames

[Bounces R Way]

Judging from that game Bahl might be better than I've given him credit for. Don't get me wrong I've liked him this season but more in the Zadorov he'll do in a pinch top 4 wise.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I just don’t think you’re following at all. Underlying numbers can tell whether results are indicative of quality of play, or whether there was other factors at play. No post is claiming that we are magically going to rewrite the past, but it can tell you if what we’ve seen is what we are likely to see. That’s what “unsustainable” means. Like in my previous post, it’s the reason that you probably shouldn’t put a large wager on Washington winning the cup next year, or that Columbus and Montreal have gotten over the hump and are finally good teams. It’s also the reason I wouldn’t go gloating over how bad NYR and Nashville have been because they’re primed for some extreme positive regression. Yet you point out that Calgary has plenty of indicators that say we are in the positive regression group and not pretend bubble teams like Montreal and Columbus, and everyone who sold the farm guaranteeing we’d be awful this offseason is full of vitriol.

Not following at all? You responded to me trying to tell me that the team is underperforming offensively as an argument to us very clearly being carried by goaltending. It's completely irrelevant. Results are results. This team can't score and goaltending has bailed us out time and time again

My argument is that Wolf is clearly playing at an exceptional level for a rookie in the NHL, far above expectation of anyone, including you. He quite literally has a +20 GSAx, a +23 GAR, and a +4 WAR. If you replace him with average goaltending we would have at least 8 less regulation points this season and probably not make it to as many OT's too. Low and behold we are only 9 points out of a top 5 draft position in the standings too.

Edit:
I would also like to add that reality is that Wolf has been that good and therefore we are in a bubble spot. I personally hope the Cozens rumors are true and if so is something we look into this offseason. I think he would be a huge add for us as he is a big right handed shout center and proven 30 goal scorer. He also shoots the puck a lot which is something we really lack outside of Kadri

 

[Lunatik]

Judging from that game Bahl might be better than I've give him credit for. Don't get me wrong I've liked him this season but more in the Zadorov he'll do in a pinch top 4 wise.

Bahl is still developing too, this is only his 2nd full year in the NHL and doesn't turn 25 until around the draft. As a defensive defenseman, he will continue to improve as long as he is wiling to put in the work and learn. If he can start to effectively use his body as well as his stick (his strength), he's be a defensive stud.

 

[Figgy44]

Shhh, don't ruin my dreams of the quantity for quality bamboozle that Conroy cooks up.

If I'm Conman Conroy calling Buffalo... Maybe I piss off Adams by mentioning Cozens and Byram, then see if I can do a bait and switch to get Jokiharju and/or Levi for dirt cheap.

 

[Kranix]

I can't really imagine Kadri returning useful pieces to a Cuzens deal. We already own two late 1st rounders. I don't think Kadri returns the young roster player that the Sabres would want.

Adams can be swindled. He claims to know what he wants but he's full of shit

 

[Figgy44]

If Vancouver is looking for a top 6 impact forward, but also perhaps not looking to empty the bank for one after their recent major trades, plus they have Soucy on the block... Flames need LD and have a few extra bodies for forwards... I don't know if they want someone physical, but I wonder if it helps them to have an extra sniper in the top 6 beyond just Boeser.

Is there an idea for a basis for a Sharangovich for Soucy trade concept? We can even send them a warm body for depth if they need one after moving Soucy (ie: Hanley, Barrie, Miromanov etc.)

 

[Bert Mckrakken]

If Vancouver is looking for a top 6 impact forward, but also perhaps not looking to empty the bank for one after their recent major trades, plus they have Soucy on the block... Flames need LD and have a few extra bodies for forwards... I don't know if they want someone physical, but I wonder if it helps them to have an extra sniper in the top 6 beyond just Boeser.

Is there an idea for a basis for a Sharangovich for Soucy trade concept? We can even send them a warm body for depth if they need one after moving Soucy (ie: Hanley, Barrie, Miromanov etc.)

If they are trading Rango I would hope it’s for a better return than Soucy. Maybe Soucy and Boeser, if we can work out an extension with him before hand.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

If I'm Conman Conroy calling Buffalo... Maybe I piss off Adams by mentioning Cozens and Byram, then see if I can do a bait and switch to get Jokiharju and/or Levi for dirt cheap.

Jokiharju probably but I don't think Levi is for sale as you have Wolf already.

 

[Volica]

If they are trading Rango I would hope it’s for a better return than Soucy. Maybe Soucy and Boeser, if we can work out an extension with him before hand.

I love me some Yegor.
But if you could get out of his deal for a guy who'll be done next year... that's just a dub.

 

[HighLifeMan]

Sharangovich has 10 points in his last 12. He's finding his footing.

The dude potted 31 last year, and we are running him out of town for a couple down months? This team struggles to score as is.

 

[crackdown44]

Yeah I’m not a huge Sharangovich fan and he’s certainly having a down year but I don’t think that contract is going to be a problem, especially with the cap going up

He’s also one of the few guys on the team who can score when he’s on. Not really down with dealing him just to get out of his deal

 

[Figgy44]

Jokiharju probably but I don't think Levi is for sale as you have Wolf already.

Yeah. I meant that as a joke. Like what Conroy should do if he was being a dick and trying to rip Adams off on purpose.

Yeah I’m not a huge Sharangovich fan and he’s certainly having a down year but I don’t think that contract is going to be a problem, especially with the cap going up

He’s also one of the few guys on the team who can score when he’s on. Not really down with dealing him just to get out of his deal

So... Something around Soucy and Miromanov then? I think Vancouver needs RD while we need LD and the value difference between the two could be considered cap savings?

If they are trading Rango I would hope it’s for a better return than Soucy. Maybe Soucy and Boeser, if we can work out an extension with him before hand.

I'm not opposed to Boeser, but I think the plus would have to be quite a bit bigger than we would want to pay for such a concept.

I guess I was kinda wondering more if we have too many forwards, if Rango or someone else is the odd man out.

 

[crackdown44]

Yeah. I meant that as a joke. Like what Conroy should do if he was being a dick and trying to rip Adams off on purpose.



So... Something around Soucy and Miromanov then? I think Vancouver needs RD while we need LD and the value difference between the two could be considered cap savings?



I'm not opposed to Boeser, but I think the plus would have to be quite a bit bigger than we would want to pay for such a concept.

I guess I was kinda wondering more if we have too many forwards, if Rango or someone else is the odd man out.

Yeah I mean I’d do Miro and a 4th or whatever for sure but I can’t see a scenario where the Canucks help us out short of a gross overpay

I know we’ve dealt with them a lot in the past but they are trying to catch us for that wild card spot right now

 

[Figgy44]

Yeah I mean I’d do Miro and a 4th or whatever for sure but I can’t see a scenario where the Canucks help us out short of a gross overpay

I know we’ve dealt with them a lot in the past but they are trying to catch us for that wild card spot right now

Depends if it's mutual? If Miromanov and minor asset for Soucy knocks them out, they didn't deserve to be in playoffs anyways. But if it works for both sides to protect against other teams beating their wheels off, and then the players swapped are even enough that the focus isn't on the trade but each team performing better than the other, then it's worth considering. That's the way I see it.

So either it's both of us win against other teams, or they win vs us and then a trade might be contemplated. That was my reasoning.

 

[Mobiandi]

Truth is that Kevin Bahl needs to come back asap. No one really trades quality Dmen for cheap around this time. Either that or Solovyov/Kuznetsov come in and steal a spot right now

 

[Rubi]

It's a damn shame Poirier hasn't progressed as much as some us hoped he would. There's still time though. I haven't given up on him. He's only 22

 

[Darth Vladar]

It's a damn shame Poirier hasn't progressed as much as some us hoped he would. There's still time though. I haven't given up on him. He's only 22

I think people are reticent to acknowledge that the kid came all the way back from a pretty bad injury. It was the same thing with Pelts. 22 is still super young, and whatever defensive shortcomings he might have, I personally think his skating and skill makes up for. At least give him the audition so we can see for sure what we have and move on or not, because he’ll be RFA anyways at season’s end. There is no way in hell Poi would be worse than Bean or Barrie, and there is a chance he could even be significantly better imho

 

[Yepthatsme]

So Nazem’s IPP is 83% at all strengths. 95 5 on 5. That’s obnoxiously high. His career average is around 60. So while his on ice shooting percentage might normalize. So will the IPP. And we are looking at a 60ish point player like he usually is. Also according to Natural Stat Trick his on ice shooting percentage is 7.75 all strengths (which isn’t too far off his career norms at about 10)

But continue to be a condescending know it all that thinks he is the smartest person in the room. Continue to enlighten our fan base how this team is actually elite offensively, they just have bad luck. How numbers avoid bias. And how the Flames are flush with elite scores.

lol. I thought the poster who tries claiming that I present numbers with Bias and sometimes fudge them just claimed Kadri’s 5v5 IPP average was 60, when he has 1 year in his career below 60 to balance out 10 plus years above 70, including 3 years above 80 and 2 above 90.

Then I realized you were picking all strengths data to debate the topic we’ve been discussing of his 5v5 scoring being suppressed limiting his totals. Who would’ve thought you would misrepresent his average (at all strengths it’s much closer to 70 than 60 for his average, a massive difference than your low ball) and try to change the topic to all strengths numbers because it suits your narrative better. So you mis-represented values (false averages) and chose only the stats that made your point look better. I thought that was my schtick.

I’m done debating against people who won’t budge or try to address different perspectives on these topics, but just know that the things you accuse me of doing seem more like projecting.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Not following at all? You responded to me trying to tell me that the team is underperforming offensively as an argument to us very clearly being carried by goaltending. It's completely irrelevant. Results are results. This team can't score and goaltending has bailed us out time and time again

My argument is that Wolf is clearly playing at an exceptional level for a rookie in the NHL, far above expectation of anyone, including you. He quite literally has a +20 GSAx, a +23 GAR, and a +4 WAR. If you replace him with average goaltending we would have at least 8 less regulation points this season and probably not make it to as many OT's too. Low and behold we are only 9 points out of a top 5 draft position in the standings too.

Edit:
I would also like to add that reality is that Wolf has been that good and therefore we are in a bubble spot. I personally hope the Cozens rumors are true and if so is something we look into this offseason. I think he would be a huge add for us as he is a big right handed shout center and proven 30 goal scorer. He also shoots the puck a lot which is something we really lack outside of Kadri

Also just more disinformation to dispel before I drop it, his GSAx is 10.92. You used 5v5 instead of his overall totals but I imagine that was an accident.

GAR and WAR are also pretty terrible and subjective stats in my opinion, but that’s just my opinion. For example defensive GAR is entirely calculated based on stats relative to you your own team without comparing across the league at all. So the league leaders in defensive GAR are usually just which good defenseman is on a bad defense core. But that’s just my opinion and others do like it more, and I’ll never fault someone for trying to bring more substance to a discussion.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

lol. I thought the poster who tries claiming that I present numbers with Bias and sometimes fudge them just claimed Kadri’s 5v5 IPP average was 60, when he has 1 year in his career below 60 to balance out 10 plus years above 70, including 3 years above 80 and 2 above 90.

Then I realized you were picking all strengths data to debate the topic we’ve been discussing of his 5v5 scoring being suppressed limiting his totals. Who would’ve thought you would misrepresent his average (at all strengths it’s much closer to 70 than 60 for his average, a massive difference than your low ball) and try to change the topic to all strengths numbers because it suits your narrative better. So you mis-represented values (false averages) and chose only the stats that made your point look better. I thought that was my schtick.

I’m done debating against people who won’t budge or try to address different perspectives on these topics, but just know that the things you accuse me of doing seem more like projecting.

Sure I just crunched the numbers. It was so hard to do. Percentages are tough lol. I didn’t before because it was pretty obvious when I looked at the stat I caught you with a massive oversight.

His season average 5 on 5 IPP is 73.24. He currently at 90.5. He should experience a 19% negative regression to his norm.

His all strengths IPP is 82.6 compared to his season average of 66.04. He should expect about a 20% regression negatively.

His season over season on ice shooting percentage 5 on 5 is 10.3%. Currently he sits at 8.1%. So we can expect about a 20% positive regression.

Basically, he’s right on pace for what he should be. His much higher than average IPP is propping up his lower than average shooting percentage. He’s a 55 to 60 point player like he always has been.

But of course you won’t have a rebuttal because you know perfectly well that you had a massive oversight. But I like that it proves my point. Stats are objective, but they are not always valid. Validity basically is the measure of how much a statistic tells you what you are hoping to be measured, is being measured. For example, if you are giving a child from China a math problem solving test who has language issues, and they do poor, objectively that test says that student did not do well. The problem with the student was not their math ability, but the test itself. The test was not valid. I see this mistake all the time with fancy stat lovers in hockey. If you studied stats, like I do on some tests that I administer to special needs students in a clinical realm, then you would know that.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Also just more disinformation to dispel before I drop it, his GSAx is 10.92. You used 5v5 instead of his overall totals but I imagine that was an accident.

GAR and WAR are also pretty terrible and subjective stats in my opinion, but that’s just my opinion. For example defensive GAR is entirely calculated based on stats relative to you your own team without comparing across the league at all. So the league leaders in defensive GAR are usually just which good defenseman is on a bad defense core. But that’s just my opinion and others do like it more, and I’ll never fault someone for trying to bring more substance to a discussion.

No I used a different site than you. You used MoneyPuck which calculates GSAx using shots on goal only, I used Evolving Hockey who calculate their GSAx with Fenwick (the same stat used to calculate xG)

 

[Figgy44]

So many posters seem to be excited about this team and possible player development and future playoff and cup possibilities.

Maybe I'm a glass half empty kind of guy but I'm finding it extremely difficult to get on the bandwagon as I see a team with a possibly elite goalie surrounded by average to below average NHL'ers who have difficulty scoring on a regular basis, and in order to win have to hustle their asses off every minute of the game and have to play near perfect mistake free hockey to give themselves a chance to win.... And that's in the regular season. The outlook looks dimmer in the playoffs when everyone ups their game .

The chances are extremely high that this team won't have a single 30 goal scorer on the roster. That's pitiful. Also we have dmen playing on the top 2 pairings that have no right to be there. Any other team and they'd be getting 3rd pairing minutes. We do have some nice prospects in the pipeline but I just don't see anyone that's a game breaker who opposing players and fans fear every time he has the puck on his stick. IMHO in order to have a legitimate change at winning the cup you, 9 times out of 10, need that type of player on your team.

For me, right now, I see a future chock full of mediocrity and disappointment.

Conroy following exact instructions and fans basically this...

 

[Lunatik]

No I used a different site than you. You used MoneyPuck which calculates GSAx using shots on goal only, I used Evolving Hockey who calculate their GSAx with Fenwick (the same stat used to calculate xG)

Anything based on Corsi or Fenwick is massively flawed, it's like you guys are arguing about what tastes better, a cow pie or guano... in the end it's all shit

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Anything based on Corsi or Fenwick is massively flawed, it's like you guys are arguing about what tastes better, a cow pie or guano... in the end it's all shit

That's your opinion but just like his argument it doesn't change my original point about where we would be in the standings with just average goaltending instead of Wolf

 

[Figgy44]

Ignore Cozens and Byram talk. (To expensive)

Target Jokiharju and Krebs in same idea as frost Farabee, yea or nay? (Cheap at mid /late rounder and no key roster players)