Schenn turned out to be a good player as we all thought he would be down the road, and Simmonds hurt immediately, also as we all thought. The pick turned out to be negligible. It was a win now move that worked perfectly. But the boldfaced is demonstrably false, and no, I'm pretty confident we wouldn't have won without Richards because in his stead we would have been trotting out Stoll/Schenn as 2Cs. On the third best offensive team in the league, Brayden Schenn had a whopping 18 points in 2012.
2012
Schenn: 18 pts, 3rd best offense in league, 15th in the roster on scoring regular season. Then they had that shitshow pens-flyers series where he had 9 in 11 games(!) for 4th on the roster.
Richards: 44 pts, 2nd worst offense in league, sub 200 goals. 4th on the roster in scoring both regular season and playoffs (higher production in playoffs, 15 in 20 games which is a 62 pt pace).
2013
Schenn: 26 pts, pace for 45 pts (lockout season, oddly LA and PHI identical offenses), 5th on the roster in scoring, no playoffs.
Richards: 32 pts, pace for 55pts, 4th on the roster in scoring again, 3rd on roster in playoffs scoring with 12 in 15, which is a 66 pt pace.
2014
Schenn: 41 pts, Philly 9th offense, 6th in team scoring, 9th in playoff scoring, 3 in 1 7 game series
Richards: 41 pts, 26th offense. 4th in team scoring again, 12th in playoff scoring, 10 in 26 games, 32 pt pace.
2014, this is the point where their careers coincided and Schenn went up while Richards went down. I think people generally forget how f***ing good Mike Richards was in 2013, he looked to be back to "full" Mike Richards until Bolland decapitated him, and it was all downhill after that.
So on a team whose center depth, grit and intangibles were a major strength, no, I don't think we win the first cup without Richards and the butterfly effect thereafter, especially given his elevated scoring and presence in playoffs in 2012 and 2013 with clutch play in 2014.
Edit: and that's just from a raw production standpoint, never mind the intangibles difference, the swagger Richards had in f***ing destroying Burrows for example, being unflappable. Whereas the biggest knock on schenn going back to even the WJC was his softness in big games, for a kid with a big body to be so timid when he flashed the power forward potential vs. lesser competition. Fortunately for him he put it all together in later years, especially recently, but not early enough to help us in 2012-2014.
Oh boy, here we go with the strawmen again...