Maybe I'm being obtuse, but this doesn't tell me a lot.
While yes, lower picks have a lower chance at success, the fact remains there is STILL success with lower picks. Again, the Kings #1 LW wasn't even picked.
So the questions remain:
- Does the development staff need higher picks to gauge their ability to develop?
- Does the amateur staff need higher picks to provide a better baseline?
Not drafting and developing a regular top line forward on this team since 2005 is a huge red flag. If one group NEEDS better tools at this point, then we need to start looking at what we're doing wrong.
I understand picks and prospects were traded. But this is going on 14 years now.
Ranford and Imoo turned an ECHL outcast into a respectable backup in what. Two years?
I'm sorry man but yes, you are being deliberately obtuse to make your point. It is a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem regardless, but the answers to both questions are :yes."
I think the conclusion is fine, but you have to make a lot of oversights for the premises.
Saying Kings haven't drafted and developed a regular top line forward since '05 deliberately overlooks what I posted above about '09 and forward (Does Schenn not count?), in addition to previous years:
08--Drafted Doughty, Teubert (LOL), Voynov in the first 32 picks. I'd say they did great with what they had there.
07--another d-man high in Hickey. Simmonds at 61--should they have developed him better? I'm not so sure. He became a PP monster when he left but he was essentially the same player.
06--Bernier highest pick, Trevor Lewis...not sure they could have done much more with him.
So from '06 on...they either drafted a d-man/goalie with their highest pick, traded the pick or the player, or turned them into a player appropriate to their draft spot. If we're looking at strictly top-line forwards, they haven't had the opportunity imo. That's a lot of d-man and goalie development, appropriate to a team that was very focused on two-way hockey. "What we're doing wrong" is simply not throwing top-echelon picks at forward talent, not giving appropriate credit for UFA signings (the school of thought that discounts Iafallo, Muzzin, Jones because "we didn't draft them," which I think is a little bit dishonest), and not giving guys like Schenn, Toffoli, Pearson appropriate credit for the players they are.
Really the only guy from those draft classes on I look at and wonder what could have been is Moller.
Edit: I think the question will have to be answered with this crop of dudes from the last three years: Turcotte, Vilardi, Kaliyev, Fagemo, Kupari, Thomas, Shafigullin, JAD is a good sample size of diverse top-end talent to see what happens. It's terrifying that it's high-stakes but it's the only way to know.