GDT: 2019-20 GM#45 LA Kings vs Dallas Stars @7:00pm 1/8/20

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yeah, I don't expect the immediate impact from our prospects that some here are hoping for when they arrive. By the time the prospects find their best "NHL-games" the Kings will have eaten through almost all of Kopitar's contract and a significant portion of Doughty's. The Kings best prospects are still teenagers. I don't expect them to fully arrive for another 3-4 years.

I often post it but people hate it, but most prospects don't even have their first NHL season until draft + 3 (or is that +2? their 20 year old season), and even then they don't make a regular impact until 21-22. We'll likely see Vilardi next year, but he's lost development time. We're not likely to see Turcotte regularly until he's 21 or 22 imo just because of body alone (no way he can play against NHLers the way he's effective against his peers at this point--too reckless). Kupari is losing at least half a year now with his ACL. Clague is just now getting a sniff, but he's not ready for full-time duty. Ditto for JAD. And those guys aren't going to be impact players that we need, imo, they're going to be more like Lizotte, great depth that will supplement the top end, but they'd get buried if they had to take Doughty's or Kopitar's minutes...

I think you can't keep Petersen down any longer. Clague will be full time or moved. JAD needs to break in as does Grundstrom. Vilardi will get some time. But that's it unless we get another surprise like Lizotte. Next year's team is what you see is what you get unless one of the goalies goes nuclear, which is possible.

HOPEFULLY you get a guy like Lafreniere because imo he can break in immediately and have an impact AND have the benefit of being sheltered by vets like Kopi.

 

[KINGS17]

I often post it but people hate it, but most prospects don't even have their first NHL season until draft + 3 (or is that +2? their 20 year old season), and even then they don't make a regular impact until 21-22. We'll likely see Vilardi next year, but he's lost development time. We're not likely to see Turcotte regularly until he's 21 or 22 imo just because of body alone (no way he can play against NHLers the way he's effective against his peers at this point--too reckless). Kupari is losing at least half a year now with his ACL. Clague is just now getting a sniff, but he's not ready for full-time duty. Ditto for JAD. And those guys aren't going to be impact players that we need, imo, they're going to be more like Lizotte, great depth that will supplement the top end, but they'd get buried if they had to take Doughty's or Kopitar's minutes...

I think you can't keep Petersen down any longer. Clague will be full time or moved. JAD needs to break in as does Grundstrom. Vilardi will get some time. But that's it unless we get another surprise like Lizotte. Next year's team is what you see is what you get unless one of the goalies goes nuclear, which is possible.

HOPEFULLY you get a guy like Lafreniere because imo he can break in immediately and have an impact AND have the benefit of being sheltered by vets like Kopi.

Lafreniere would be a dream come true for the Kings. At 6-1 and around 200 lbs. he should be able to come in and contribute right away. I was a bit concerned with the idea of "lose for Hughes", because of his size and need to add more muscle. I think Hughes will be a fine player some day, but I think Lafreniere's ceiling is much higher.

 

[MxH0CKEY]

I often post it but people hate it, but most prospects don't even have their first NHL season until draft + 3 (or is that +2? their 20 year old season), and even then they don't make a regular impact until 21-22. We'll likely see Vilardi next year, but he's lost development time. We're not likely to see Turcotte regularly until he's 21 or 22 imo just because of body alone (no way he can play against NHLers the way he's effective against his peers at this point--too reckless). Kupari is losing at least half a year now with his ACL. Clague is just now getting a sniff, but he's not ready for full-time duty. Ditto for JAD. And those guys aren't going to be impact players that we need, imo, they're going to be more like Lizotte, great depth that will supplement the top end, but they'd get buried if they had to take Doughty's or Kopitar's minutes...

I think you can't keep Petersen down any longer. Clague will be full time or moved. JAD needs to break in as does Grundstrom. Vilardi will get some time. But that's it unless we get another surprise like Lizotte. Next year's team is what you see is what you get unless one of the goalies goes nuclear, which is possible.

HOPEFULLY you get a guy like Lafreniere because imo he can break in immediately and have an impact AND have the benefit of being sheltered by vets like Kopi.

Listed are players who have either made an immediate impact or took 1 or 2 yrs after being drafted to make one:
Pettersson(+1, Turcotte comparison?), Boeser(+2), Keller(+1), Hayton(Slight impact this year, prob +2), OLOFSSON, B. Tkachuk, M. Tkachuk, Draisaitl(+1), Heiskanen, Huberdeau(+1), Svechnikov, Konecny(+1), Rantanen(+1), R. Thomas(+1), Larkin(+1), Suzuki(+2), Pastrnak, Dahlin, Connor(+2), S. Jones, Aho(+1), Necas(+2), and prob a few more.. These are all outliers but with the best spect pool in the league, we should be due for a player or two who can chip in 30-40 pts in a rookie season. Won't be surprised if they miss playoffs again next season fwiw.

Players capable of speeding things up next season: Turcotte, Kupari(doubtful w/ injury), Vilardi(still doubtful), Kaliyev?, Fagemo(Pro XP), Clague, Bjornfot, and who we draft this season. There's enough playoff teams with rosters that aren't insane(Islanders, Penguins(injuries), even Oilers). Getting the kids to buy-in will be the main priority.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Listed are players who have either made an immediate impact or took 1 or 2 yrs after being drafted to make one:
Pettersson(+1, Turcotte comparison?), Boeser(+2), Keller(+1), Hayton(Slight impact this year, prob +2), OLOFSSON, B. Tkachuk, M. Tkachuk, Draisaitl(+1), Heiskanen, Huberdeau(+1), Svechnikov, Konecny(+1), Rantanen(+1), R. Thomas(+1), Larkin(+1), Suzuki(+2), Pastrnak, Dahlin, Connor(+2), S. Jones, Aho(+1), Necas(+2), and prob a few more.. These are all outliers but with the best spect pool in the league, we should be due for a player or two who can chip in 30-40 pts in a rookie season. Won't be surprised if they miss playoffs again next season fwiw.

Players capable of speeding things up next season: Turcotte, Kupari(doubtful w/ injury), Vilardi(still doubtful), Kaliyev?, Fagemo(Pro XP), Clague, Bjornfot, and who we draft this season. There's enough playoff teams with rosters that aren't insane(Islanders, Penguins(injuries), even Oilers). Getting the kids to buy-in will be the main priority.

Right, I'm agreeing with you. The vast majority of guys who break in even AT 20 are first rounders, and the 18 and 19 year olds are exceptional, usually top 5. I'll see if I can find my recent post. I did a more thorough one some time back but ehh. I guess my point is don't count on it and although it's painful I want these guys to develop appropriately, not get Oilers'ed in.

Edit: current as of like two weeks ago list of 18-20 year olds in the NHL and why we need lower expectations:

Here's the list of 18-20 year olds and why it's no surprise. Guys in parentheses have gotten less than half games:
2001 bday: Three regulars--Hughes, Kakko, Dach. (Bjornfot, Heinola have gotten a taste).
2000 bday: Four regulars--Kotkaniemi, Dahlin, Svechnikov, Farabee. (Dobson, Sandin, Gustafsson, Hayton, Wahlstrom, Boqvist have gotten a taste)
1999 bday: Twelve regulars--Hughes, Tkachuk, Texier, Chytil, Brannstrom, Suzuki, Heiskanen, Thomas, Jokiharju, Glass, Necas, Comtois, Hischier. Only 5 have played all their teams games. 10 more have gotten a cup of coffee.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

The Kings will face Malcolm Subban in net tonight.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The Kings will face Malcolm Subban in net tonight.

Shutout inc

 

[BigKing]

I've had it pegged for success in 2021 being a season like the one before the Kings finally made the playoffs for the first time with Brown and Kopitar. Maybe that was Doughty's first season? They were kind of in the playoff race and you could see potential in guys like Doughty and Simmonds but they still only finished with 79 points.

There isn't a Doughty-level type prospect stepping in next season unless the Kings are fortunate to win the lottery but, again, that is the point of this entire season since Blake did not actively try to make the roster any better than the one that finished next to dead last.

Playoff contention is supposed to start in 2022. That's the realistic timeline, I believe. This season is all about getting another high pick and, if they wind up around #5 again, next season could be more of the same. Blake might do well to look at some under the radar UFA vets that will still be good when these young guys are ready but we are still probably looking at nothing major on that front until the following off-season unless the Kings win the lottery.

In that '09 season I'm talking about, DL moved O'Sullivan for Williams and then he made the Smyth trade in the off-season. Following season they made the playoffs with 101 points. There needs to be real positive progress from prospects and younger guys on this team next year so Blake can properly assess if it is time to augment the roster--or know where to augment it--going in to 2022. As I've stated before, this is where my major concern with Blake comes in.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Shutout inc

Lets hope.

 

[FrozenKing18]

HOPEFULLY you get a guy like Lafreniere because imo he can break in immediately and have an impact AND have the benefit of being sheltered by vets like Kopi.

With the Kings' lottery luck, Lafreniere is a dream. I am really hoping i'm dead wrong though. Laf being mentored by Kopitar and Carter(if he sticks around) would be great