2018 NHL Entry Draft Thread (Less then 24 Hours Edition)

[sandviper]

I wish it was this easy, he's something though, go through our picks in the second and compare them to players drafted in earlier years at the same rank, it's rarely pretty, if one of the 4 becomes an NHL regular I'd consider a success, let alone a top 6 forward or top 4 D.

You know what here I'll do it and I'll start in 2013.

35: Compher, decent bottom 6 forward
38: Hurley, nothing
56 and 57, not much to show for

2012
At 38 Phil di Guiseppe, another fringe bottom 6 player and nothing at 56, 57 to even talk about

2011
at 35, a fringe bottom 6 forward and 2 AHL'ers with the later picks

2010
At 38 John Merrill was drafted, you could say a number 6 or 7 Dman and 2 4th liners drafted at 56, 57

2009
At 35 and 38, 2 bottom 6 forwards and nothing at 56 and 57

2008
At 38, ROMAN JOSI! There's your home run. Nothing for the other 3 picks

2007
All 4 picks were busts

2006
Mike Weber at 57 was the only non bust here and he's a bottom pairing D at best

2005
Vlasic was drafted at 35, home run again, other than that a bust and 2 players with a couple dozens of games

2004
2004 landed an average backup goalie and a number 6 Dman


So that's 10 years
In those 10, 2 top pairing Dman were drafted, other than that not one top 6 forward or even 2nd pairing Dman. One backup goalie and mainly 4th liners and AHL journey men.

So if we're going by these percentages, we've got 5% chance to hit a home run here and if we do it might as well be a Dman.

Sorry, maybe I missed the context, but is this all second rounders last 10 years?

Anyhow, 2007, at #43, a pretty decent defenceman was drafted. There was also Simmonds at #61. Maybe not a home-run, but I’d say a double that stretched into a triple there.

But yeah, statistically, home-runs aren’t locks in the second.

 

[CoopersFalls]

I think what a lot of scouting services are banking on with Tkachuk is progression. He has the size and many tools that could see him morph into an elite package.

With so many teenagers in the NHL lately, the thought of better players right now is enticing to many fans. However, many of us forget that there can be significant development after draft day. We’re not drafting a finished product.

What if Tkachuk is the next Getzlaf ? (debate over whether he is a centre aside) There are many similarities such as passing > shot, size, aggression

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

I think what a lot of scouting services are banking on with Tkachuk is progression. He has the size and many tools that could see him morph into an elite package.

With so many teenagers in the NHL lately, the thought of better players right now is enticing to many fans. However, many of us forget that there can be significant development after draft day. We’re not drafting a finished product.

What if Tkachuk is the next Getzlaf ? (debate over whether he is a centre aside) There are many similarities such as passing > shot, size, aggression

Projection goes into every player though. What if Wahlstrom and Zadina become 40+ goal scorers? What if Boqvist actually becomes the next Karlsson? What if Kotkaniemi can be our next Koivu?

 

[WinterLion]

Sorry, maybe I missed the context, but is this all second rounders last 10 years?

Anyhow, 2007, at #43, a pretty decent defenceman was drafted. There was also Simmonds at #61. Maybe not a home-run, but I’d say a double that stretched into a triple there.

But yeah, statistically, home-runs aren’t locks in the second.

He was using the exact numbers we pick at I believe. It's true that we will be doing well if we get a significant player with any of those 2nds. Still it does happen and you have to have them to get those players. Even bottom 6 guys are useful when you can use them in roles that enable you to be more flexible with your lineup.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Burke had the cohones to work some magic to draft the Sedins back then. We need this kind of ballsy move but I don't have hopes for it.

My buddy and I were talking about how Burke got both Sedins's the other day. He did good and it was several moves! But top 10 picks are not traded very often lately. So we can hope for it but even Yzerman probably can't pull off that move Burke made.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He was using the exact numbers we pick at I believe. It's true that we will be doing well if we get a significant player with any of those 2nds. Still it does happen and you have to have them to get those players. Even bottom 6 guys are useful when you can use them in roles that enable you to be more flexible with your lineup.

Every draft year is different. Lets hope the hype of this draft being very deep ends up true in the end. If it's true, the 35 and 38 picks will return solid assets. Hard to say about the 56 and 57 picks. There is a significant gap between these group of 2nd rounders.

We have 13% of all 2nd round picks and there is typically a 5% (+/-) chance at picking an elite level player in the 2nd draft. We will see how deep this draft is but we need to throw our darts at high ceiling type players.

We have a 4/31 shot at getting that 1 or 2 prospects who may become elite? Evaluating 17/18 year olds development and what they could be at 18/19 year olds is why you pay the scouts to do their jobs but nobody is perfect. We need to do our homework though!

 

[le_sean]

My buddy and I were talking about how Burke got both Sedins's the other day. He did good and it was several moves! But top 10 picks are not traded very often lately. So we can hope for it but even Yzerman probably can't pull off that move Burke made.

It’s a lot easier to make those type of moves when it’s one of the worst drafts in NHL history and when teams didn’t scout as much as they do now.

 

[sandviper]

He was using the exact numbers we pick at I believe. It's true that we will be doing well if we get a significant player with any of those 2nds. Still it does happen and you have to have them to get those players. Even bottom 6 guys are useful when you can use them in roles that enable you to be more flexible with your lineup.

Oh, ok, I must have missed that. Also agree on the importance of the bottom-6, and didn’t disagree homeruns in the second, even low picks isn’t a slam dunk.

 

[le_sean]

Jay O’Brien to Montreal is pretty much a given I’d say. Heck if Thayer Academy was in Minnesota, I’d say he’d be taken 3rd overall by Timmins

 

[Tripod]

Doing a mock draft and have Montreal. I picked Zadina at #3 and Dellandrea at #35.

Edit: Tychonick just got picked.
Edit #2: I just saw you guys had a mock draft so will go take a peek over there!

Give me some names you guys would pick in my shoes... McIsaac, Miller, Woo were some other LHD not gone. Thanks

1-1 - Buffalo - Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda (SHL)
1-2 - Carolina - Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie (OHL)
1-3 - Montreal - Filip Zadina, LW, Halifax (QMJHL)
1-4 - Ottawa - Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston U (NCAA)
1-5 - Arizona - Noah Dobson, D, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL)
1-6 - Detroit - Evan Bouchard, D, London (OHL)
1-7 - Vancouver - Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas (SHL)
1-8 - Chicago - Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
1-9 - NYR - Ty Smith, D, Spokane (WHL)
1-10 - Edmonton - Quinn Hughes, D, U of Michigan (NCAA)
1-11 - NYI - Joe Veleno, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)
1-12 - NYI - Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Pori (SM-Liiga)
1-13 - Dallas - Joel Farabee, LW, USNTDP (USHL)
1-14 - Philadelphia - Barrett Hayton, C, SSM (OHL)
1-15 - Florida - Rasmus Sandin, D, SSM (OHL)
1-16 - Colorado - Bode Wilde, D, USNTDP (USHL)
1-17 - New Jersey - Rasmus Kupari, C, Oulu (SM-Liiga)
1-18 - Columbus - Jonatan Berggren, RW, Skelleftea (SHL)
1-19 - Philadelphia - Grigori Denisenko, RW, Yaroslavl (MHL)
1-20 - Los Angeles - Dominik Bokk, RW, Vaxjo U20 (SuperElit)
1-21 - San Jose - Serron Noel, RW, Oshawa (OHL)
1-22 - Ottawa - Martin Kaut, RW, Pardubice (Extraliga)
1-23 - Anaheim - Isac Lundestrom, C, Lulea (SHL)
1-24 - Minnesota - Vitali Kravtsov, RW, Chelyabinsk (KHL)
1-25 - Toronto - Mattias Samuelsson, D, USNTDP (USHL)
1-26 - NYR - Akil Thomas, C, Niagra (OHL)
1-27 - St. Louis - Alexander Khovanov, C, Moncton (QMJHL)
1-28 - Washington - Nils Lundkvist, D, Lulea (SHL)
1-29 - Detroit - Jacob Bernard-Docker, D, Okotoks (AJHL)
1-30 - NYR - Ryan McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
1-31 - Chicago - Alexander Alexeyev, D, Red Deer (WHL)

Second Round

2-32 - Buffalo - Jacob Olofsson, C, Timra (SHL)
2-33 - Detroit - Liam Foudy, C, London (OHL)
2-34 - Florida - Jake Wise, C, USNTDP (USHL)
2-35 - Montreal - Ty Dellandrea, F, Flint OHL

 

[Yoshidas Island]

Doing a mock draft and have Montreal. I picked Zadina at #3 and Dellandrea at #35. I am leaning towards Tychonick with your next pick but was a little unsure since you already have Mete...a small LHD.

Give me some names you guys would pick in my shoes...Tyroch, McIsaac, Miller, Woo were some other LHD not gone. Thanks

1-1 - Buffalo - Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda (SHL)
1-2 - Carolina - Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie (OHL)
1-3 - Montreal - Filip Zadina, LW, Halifax (QMJHL)
1-4 - Ottawa - Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston U (NCAA)
1-5 - Arizona - Noah Dobson, D, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL)
1-6 - Detroit - Evan Bouchard, D, London (OHL)
1-7 - Vancouver - Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas (SHL)
1-8 - Chicago - Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
1-9 - NYR - Ty Smith, D, Spokane (WHL)
1-10 - Edmonton - Quinn Hughes, D, U of Michigan (NCAA)
1-11 - NYI - Joe Veleno, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)
1-12 - NYI - Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Pori (SM-Liiga)
1-13 - Dallas - Joel Farabee, LW, USNTDP (USHL)
1-14 - Philadelphia - Barrett Hayton, C, SSM (OHL)
1-15 - Florida - Rasmus Sandin, D, SSM (OHL)
1-16 - Colorado - Bode Wilde, D, USNTDP (USHL)
1-17 - New Jersey - Rasmus Kupari, C, Oulu (SM-Liiga)
1-18 - Columbus - Jonatan Berggren, RW, Skelleftea (SHL)
1-19 - Philadelphia - Grigori Denisenko, RW, Yaroslavl (MHL)
1-20 - Los Angeles - Dominik Bokk, RW, Vaxjo U20 (SuperElit)
1-21 - San Jose - Serron Noel, RW, Oshawa (OHL)
1-22 - Ottawa - Martin Kaut, RW, Pardubice (Extraliga)
1-23 - Anaheim - Isac Lundestrom, C, Lulea (SHL)
1-24 - Minnesota - Vitali Kravtsov, RW, Chelyabinsk (KHL)
1-25 - Toronto - Mattias Samuelsson, D, USNTDP (USHL)
1-26 - NYR - Akil Thomas, C, Niagra (OHL)
1-27 - St. Louis - Alexander Khovanov, C, Moncton (QMJHL)
1-28 - Washington - Nils Lundkvist, D, Lulea (SHL)
1-29 - Detroit - Jacob Bernard-Docker, D, Okotoks (AJHL)
1-30 - NYR - Ryan McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
1-31 - Chicago - Alexander Alexeyev, D, Red Deer (WHL)

Second Round

2-32 - Buffalo - Jacob Olofsson, C, Timra (SHL)
2-33 - Detroit - Liam Foudy, C, London (OHL)
2-34 - Florida - Jake Wise, C, USNTDP (USHL)
2-35 - Montreal - Ty Dellandrea, F, Flint OHL

My vote would be for Bulat Shafigullin, Jonny Tychonick or Filip Hallander

 

[Tripod]

My vote would be for Bulat Shafigullin, Jonny Tychonick or Filip Hallander

With Tychonick gone, I now am undecided as I was hoping to grab a C and a LHD with the 2 early 2nds. Leaning Hallinder for a forward.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I think what a lot of scouting services are banking on with Tkachuk is progression. He has the size and many tools that could see him morph into an elite package.

With so many teenagers in the NHL lately, the thought of better players right now is enticing to many fans. However, many of us forget that there can be significant development after draft day. We’re not drafting a finished product.

What if Tkachuk is the next Getzlaf ? (debate over whether he is a centre aside) There are many similarities such as passing > shot, size, aggression

I think it's actually the opposite. Tkachuk is probably ranked so highly because a.) he's a pretty good player, but b.) he's basically a free NHLer. That's easy money for a scout. Rather than gambling on future progression, which kind of doesn't make sense for the oldest player in the draft, they're wanting to start their draft with +1 NHLers.

 

[CapSpace]

It’s a lot easier to make those type of moves when it’s one of the worst drafts in NHL history and when teams didn’t scout as much as they do now.

I'm not talking about trading to get 1st and 2nd OA, but still. NYR have 3x1st this year, in a deep draft.

 

[Runner77]

I know some peeps were looking for some O'Brien footage.



Not a full shift-by-shift but patched up pretty much all the shifts that specifically involved him one way or another in those three games - he didn't get a lot of ice in the first two.

He's wearing #21 at the All-American Prospects game. #11 against Michigan State. And #9 with Thayer. Hughes with the Lolzner impression at 1:55.

Thanks for doing this. You put yourself through a lot of work selecting all those sequences. Just to make it easier on you, that first goal he scores is probably amongst the best sequences. The Thayer segment is unwatchable for the most part -- this is the one I dreaded looking at on YouTube, there's like an hour's worth unedited. It was so bad that you added a flashing red arrow to identify O'Brien, now that's dedication.

As an aside, the play-by-play was atrocious. In the first segment, the guy literally says "back and forth they go". In the Thayer portion, the pbp guy sounds sedated. Holy crap, who even listens to these guys.

Again, great job and a welcome addition, considering how little there is out there about the player.

 

[Runner77]

McIsaac is a very intriguing prospect......what I'd do to get both of NYI first round picks.......Pacioretty with a 7yr deal worked out for the Isles (could be their pledge to Tavares to stay) and a few 2nd round picks to nab those two firsts at 11 and 12.....

Then we draft Kotkaniemi and McIsaac and Zadina with our 3rd overall.......we'd have our big centre, our big sniping winger and a solid LHD......prospect pool would get quite the injection of talent in one day!!

Unlikely but WTF......If I was GM, this is what I'd try to make happen

If the Habs were holding those 11th and 12th picks and say it was another team that had our second rounders, would you honestly give up your 11th or 12th pick for a couple 2nd rounders? I don't think so. So, it's going to take a lot more than that to make it happen.

As for Pacioretty, he's going to be 30 years old and is getting the largest paycheck and term of his career. How many teams have the stomach for it? I do agree that the best return for him is a sign and trade, however, how many teams would be willing to grant that? I don't know. He's probably going to be sold as a rental unless we get lucky.

 

[Runner77]

With Tychonick gone, I now am undecided as I was hoping to grab a C and a LHD with the 2 early 2nds. Leaning Hallinder for a forward.

What are you guys playing for, bragging rights? I'm looking at these mocks and always wondering if someone is going to devise some kind of point system to see how close these picks are from the actual draft selections.

 

[Tripod]

What are you guys playing for, bragging rights? I'm looking at these mocks and always wondering if someone is going to devise some kind of point system to see how close these picks are from the actual draft selections.

Yeah....just doing it for fun and to get more educated on the next wave of kids coming.

 

[Runner77]

Burke had the cohones to work some magic to draft the Sedins back then. We need this kind of ballsy move but I don't have hopes for it.

Ballsy move? With this GM, "ballsy" means coughing up picks for third line character guys.

I don't want ballsy on this draft. Ballsy needs to happen from a much more sophisticated GM otherwise it'll just be an exercise in throwing darts. Molson made the biggest mistake of MB's tenure by allowing him to be in charge of a draft where the Habs own a wealth of picks. I'm waiting to see what fail-safe measures will be implemented before the draft, in the form of someone else at the draft table, to save Bergevin from himself.

 

[le_sean]

What are you guys playing for, bragging rights? I'm looking at these mocks and always wondering if someone is going to devise some kind of point system to see how close these picks are from the actual draft selections.

It’s our way to remind @Whitesnake that he selected a player in the mid-1st in 2012 that ended up being undrafted (Slepyshev).

 

[Habs Halifax]

It’s a lot easier to make those type of moves when it’s one of the worst drafts in NHL history and when teams didn’t scout as much as they do now.

Agreed. The competition between GM's gets better and better every year. Draft quality will vary from year to year but making moves in this draft won't be easy. Habs might be able to take advantage to trade down but we need to get that trade right. The additional piece we get in trading down has to be worth it.

I am a bit concerned with how busy we will be. A lot of picks and Patch to trade. Hope our scouts are at the top of their game and our hanging by a thin thread GM only makes moves if it benefits our future.

 

[Yoshidas Island]

Ballsy move? With this GM, "ballsy" means coughing up picks for third line character guys.

I don't want ballsy on this draft. Ballsy needs to happen from a much more sophisticated GM otherwise it'll just be an exercise in throwing darts. Molson made the biggest mistake of MB's tenure by allowing him to be in charge of a draft where the Habs own a wealth of picks. I'm waiting to see what fail-safe measures will be implemented before the draft, in the form of someone else at the draft table, to save Bergevin from himself.

I don’t really understand the mentality that Bergevin is a “safe” GM. You can complain about the moves he makes but I don’t think it’s debatable that he’s a safe GM.

I mean the Subban trade, Sergachev trade, the Radulov signing, the Alzner signing, the Petry and Vanek trades. They aren’t all obviously good deals, but he’s not sitting on his laurels doing absolutely nothing too.

McCarron, Pezzetta and Crisp are likely the only draft picks under Bergevin that would constitute as playing it safe, or playing for size. (The non-sexy pick)

Every year we pick someone who has a meaningful amount of upside.

I’m not saying Bergevin makes good moves just that he isn’t a “play it safe” Gm

 

[Mrb1p]

Ill say it here, Miller would be a great gamble if he fell to one of our last two picks.

 

[Victoire HuGo]

I don’t really understand the mentality that Bergevin is a “safe” GM. You can complain about the moves he makes but I don’t think it’s debatable that he’s a safe GM.

I mean the Subban trade, Sergachev trade, the Radulov signing, the Alzner signing, the Petry and Vanek trades. They aren’t all obviously good deals, but he’s not sitting on his laurels doing absolutely nothing too.

McCarron, Pezzetta and Crisp are likely the only draft picks under Bergevin that would constitute as playing it safe, or playing for size. (The non-sexy pick)

Every year we pick someone who has a meaningful amount of upside.

I’m not saying Bergevin makes good moves just that he isn’t a “play it safe” Gm

Exactly, Bergevin is just a reckless type of risk taker. Like some kid drunk as f*** driving their car after a party. Sometimes it'll go well. Other times he'll f*** up.

 

[Whitesnake]

It’s our way to remind @Whitesnake that he selected a player in the mid-1st in 2012 that ended up being undrafted (Slepyshev).

I was hacked that day. Just that day.