2018 NHL Entry Draft Thread (Less then 24 Hours Edition)

[NotProkofievian]

It's certainly been framed this way here...so that wouldn't be surprising.

I can't help but shake the feeling that this Brady Tkachuk smear campaign has really nothing to do with the player himself, and more to do with the perception that he fits the mold of what many here resent about management.

If Bergevin managed to get us a bunch of players like Brady Tkachuk, instead of King, Ott, Martinsen, McCarron and friends, I don't think people here would resent him.

 

[417]

If Bergevin managed to get us a bunch of players like Brady Tkachuk, instead of King, Ott, Martinsen, McCarron and friends, I don't think people here would resent him.

Nevertheless...

King, Ott, Martinsen & McCarron really have nothing to do with Brady Tkachuk....

I get there are concerns with taking Tkachuk, but it's become a thing of it's own on here, it's gone past being a narrative. I can't help but think tunnel vision is at play here.

 

[Victoire HuGo]

First time I heard about it, thanks

Don't know if it's been corrected in this thread but it is not Juolevi. Marek is stupid for releasing such info now some kids will get flak on things that they are not even guilty of. @opticmax I would be careful with these type of posts.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Nevertheless...

King, Ott, Martinsen & McCarron really have nothing to do with Brady Tkachuk....

I get there are concerns with taking Tkachuk, but it's become a thing of it's own on here, it's gone past being a narrative. I can't help but think tunnel vision is at play here.

I like Tkachuk. I don't put players I don't like in my top 10. He's been in my top 10 all season, and has never once dropped out of it. I've even argued against the notion that he's a ''complementary'' player, but somehow I still get labeled as a Euro nut-hugger.

However, there are some real questions about his ultimate upside, and I think they aren't being asked by some people. ''He's concensus top 5'' and that's good enough for them. If you ever raise the point that 50 points will likely be a good NHL season from him, that will get not just countered, but smothered by ''you NEED players like him to win,'' and ''it's not all about points!''

I get that Tkachuk can do things that won't show up on the score sheet, things that we desperately need, too. And I also get that he's not some oaf who can only ''create space'' for his linemates. But you can't just assume that those things will be enough to compensate for the offensive upside he's giving up against the other forwards, and even a few of the dmen.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I've used this for a while, i've compared several past trades with the chart and the values check out.

So right now all 4 of our 2nd rounders would only get us the 18th pick.... :/

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

How would you guys rank the centers? Right now I have 5 definite first rounders...

1. Kotkaniemi
2. Hayton

3. Kupari

4. Dellandrea
5. Veleno

But haven't looked into Lundestrom or Olofsson yet.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I like Tkachuk. I don't put players I don't like in my top 10. He's been in my top 10 all season, and has never once dropped out of it. I've even argued against the notion that he's a ''complementary'' player, but somehow I still get labeled as a Euro nut-hugger.

However, there are some real questions about his ultimate upside, and I think they aren't being asked by some people. ''He's concensus top 5'' and that's good enough for them. If you ever raise the point that 50 points will likely be a good NHL season from him, that will get not just countered, but smothered by ''you NEED players like him to win,'' and ''it's not all about points!''

I get that Tkachuk can do things that won't show up on the score sheet, things that we desperately need, too. And I also get that he's not some oaf who can only ''create space'' for his linemates. But you can't just assume that those things will be enough to compensate for the offensive upside he's giving up against the other forwards, and even a few of the dmen.

For me, you put him up against the other three wingers and the other three Svech, Zadina and Wahlstrom all have the ability to consistently score between 30-50 goals, depending on usage, team, centers etc. Where Tkachuk you're really looking at a 20-30 goal output, and while he has good playmaking it certainly isn't any better or worse than the other three, adjust for skating and age, plus his projection is kinda stagnant and I can't see how he beats those guys out.

Then just the intrinsic value of defenseman is higher than wingers.. and the group of talented defenseman available, you absolutely have to weigh that against the wingers.. finally you have to weigh centers and that's where Jesperi comes into the convo.

For me the conversations of where to pick Tkachuk come in vs. Hughes, Smith, Bouchard etc. And that's when he still falls under due to being at a less valuable position.

 

[417]

I like Tkachuk. I don't put players I don't like in my top 10. He's been in my top 10 all season, and has never once dropped out of it. I've even argued against the notion that he's a ''complementary'' player, but somehow I still get labeled as a Euro nut-hugger.

Got it...I wasn't necessarily referring to you as someone who has tunnel vision as it relates to Tkachuk btw. You've posted a ton of helpful stuff on this draft so that certainly wasn't a slight to you (or anyone really).

However, there are some real questions about his ultimate upside, and I think they aren't being asked by some people. ''He's concensus top 5'' and that's good enough for them. If you ever raise the point that 50 points will likely be a good NHL season from him, that will get not just countered, but smothered by ''you NEED players like him to win,'' and ''it's not all about points!''

If it's OK, i'd like to challenge you on this statement...how do you know that 50pts will likely be the best season one can expect from him?

There are so many factors that come into play when it comes to point production, many of which, are completely out of the control of said player. Points are as much about circumstance as they are about natural talent or upside.

Alex Galchenyuk at his best, has with the Montreal Canadiens been a 50-55pt player...but his talent suggests he should be a 70+pt player, at least IMO.

But the circumstances, how the team has been built, how he's been used, etc, have affected his production at the NHL level.

So I don't think it's fair to cap the production a player who hasn't even been drafted at this stage of the game, there are too many unknown variables at play which will affect what his ultimate point production upside will end up being.

I get that Tkachuk can do things that won't show up on the score sheet, things that we desperately need, too. And I also get that he's not some oaf who can only ''create space'' for his linemates. But you can't just assume that those things will be enough to compensate for the offensive upside he's giving up against the other forwards, and even a few of the dmen.

Fair enough, and as i've said before, I defer to guys like you when it comes to this draft cause you've spent much more time watching and evaluating these guys than I have.

But I also trust my own judgement as it relates to players and based from what i've seen from Brady Tkachuk...I personally wouldn't be upset if he ended up being the Habs pick, the little i've seem from him doesn't scream out "do not draft!".

Would he be my top choice @ #3? No, certainly not...but this year, there doesn't seem to be a consensus at our spot and Tkachuk seems like one of many players who the Habs could potentially select at #3 that i'd be more than happy with.

Keep up the good work though - it's much appreciated.

 

[NotProkofievian]

How would you guys rank the centers? Right now I have 5 definite first rounders...

1. Kotkaniemi
2. Hayton

3. Kupari

4. Dellandrea
5. Veleno

But haven't looked into Lundestrom or Olofsson yet.

1st round
1. Kotkaniemi
2. Lundeström
3. Kupari
4. Gustafsson
5. Hayton
6. Dellandrea

2nd round
7. Olofsson
8. SDA*
9. O'Brien
10. Morozov*
11. Thomas
12. McLeod

3rd round
13. Hillis
14. Jenik
15. Roman
16. McShane

* SDA and Morozov are really incredible players, however, this ranking is contingent on Bob's list. There may be no point ranking them this high. Up to 10 I feel pretty strongly about these players.

 

[417]

For me, you put him up against the other three wingers and the other three Svech, Zadina and Wahlstrom all have the ability to consistently score between 30-50 goals, depending on usage, team, centers etc. Where Tkachuk you're really looking at a 20-30 goal output, and while he has good playmaking it certainly isn't any better or worse than the other three, adjust for skating and age, plus his projection is kinda stagnant and I can't see how he beats those guys out.

Then just the intrinsic value of defenseman is higher than wingers.. and the group of talented defenseman available, you absolutely have to weigh that against the wingers.. finally you have to weigh centers and that's where Jesperi comes into the convo.

For me the conversations of where to pick Tkachuk come in vs. Hughes, Smith, Bouchard etc. And that's when he still falls under due to being at a less valuable position.

50 goals is quite the feat in the NHL today...you'd be stepping out on quite the limb to suggest any of those guys, Svech, Zadina & Wahlstrom have the ability to consistently score between 30 and all the way up to 50 goals.

But more importantly, you pointed out that they have the ability to do this "depending on usage, team, centers, etc"...which is kind of my point.

If Tkachuk ends up on a team with a better supporting cast than say...Zadina, then his production is likely to be more consistent and higher than Zadina's, even though his natural talent is inferior.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

1st round
1. Kotkaniemi
2. Lundeström
3. Kupari
4. Gustafsson
5. Hayton
6. Dellandrea

2nd round
7. Olofsson
8. SDA*
9. O'Brien
10. Morozov*
11. Thomas
12. McLeod

3rd round
13. Hillis
14. Jenik
15. Roman
16. McShane

* SDA and Morozov are really incredible players, however, this ranking is contingent on Bob's list. There may be no point ranking them this high. Up to 10 I feel pretty strongly about these players.

A few guys there I have to check out. Of the 2nd round guys, i really like O'Brien. If we exit round 1 without a center, I really hope we target him. Lacks size, but we actually have good size down the middle so can afford a guy like him. Like Thomas too in the 2nd for that reason (if he falls).

 

[WeThreeKings]

1st round
1. Kotkaniemi
2. Lundeström
3. Kupari
4. Gustafsson
5. Hayton
6. Dellandrea

2nd round
7. Olofsson
8. SDA*
9. O'Brien
10. Morozov*
11. Thomas
12. McLeod

3rd round
13. Hillis
14. Jenik
15. Roman
16. McShane

* SDA and Morozov are really incredible players, however, this ranking is contingent on Bob's list. There may be no point ranking them this high. Up to 10 I feel pretty strongly about these players.

Where's McLaughlin, Drury and Madden bro

 

[Runner77]

I would hope so, since we have a dedicated New England area scout who, to my knowledge, hasn't given us a single NHL player. Now might be the time for him to earn his pay cheque. One thing, Columbus of all teams seems to be very interested in him: they visited him a bunch of times during the season. They don't mind going a bit off the board. I think he might not make it to 35.

I'm getting the same impression.

Thing is, there will be fallers and how likely is he to beat them out.

 

[Canadienna]

If nothing else I like Kotkaniemi's confidence in saying he could play in the NHL next year and that he hopes he gets drafted by Montreal (likely knowing about our lack of Center depth)

Still would rather trade roster pieces to get both rather than give up Zadina for him.

 

[WinterLion]

For me, you put him up against the other three wingers and the other three Svech, Zadina and Wahlstrom all have the ability to consistently score between 30-50 goals, depending on usage, team, centers etc. Where Tkachuk you're really looking at a 20-30 goal output, and while he has good playmaking it certainly isn't any better or worse than the other three, adjust for skating and age, plus his projection is kinda stagnant and I can't see how he beats those guys out.

Then just the intrinsic value of defenseman is higher than wingers.. and the group of talented defenseman available, you absolutely have to weigh that against the wingers.. finally you have to weigh centers and that's where Jesperi comes into the convo.

For me the conversations of where to pick Tkachuk come in vs. Hughes, Smith, Bouchard etc. And that's when he still falls under due to being at a less valuable position.

Yeah that makes a lot of sense. I think some people will argue that the intangibles he brings will flip the balance, but that's what makes this year so fun.

 

[NotProkofievian]

If it's OK, i'd like to challenge you on this statement...how do you know that 50pts will likely be the best season one can expect from him?

There are so many factors that come into play when it comes to point production, many of which, are completely out of the control of said player. Points are as much about circumstance as they are about natural talent or upside.

Alex Galchenyuk at his best, has with the Montreal Canadiens been a 50-55pt player...but his talent suggests he should be a 70+pt player, at least IMO.

But the circumstances, how the team has been built, how he's been used, etc, have affected his production at the NHL level.

So I don't think it's fair to cap the production a player who hasn't even been drafted at this stage of the game, there are too many unknown variables at play which will affect what his ultimate point production upside will end up being.

Yep, and I'll admit to being wrong, but here's my reasoning. First, as you point out with the bolded, some very good players with ostensibly better skill sets than Brady can end up as 50 pt players. I don't think anyone here is willing to say that Brady's got Drouin beat in the skills department, and yet, here we are. Radulov ''only'' put up 54 pts, famously, and he does a lot of the stuff that people want Brady to do. To put a fine point on it, 50 pts is a pretty good season period.

But let's look at whether he can exceed it. First, he's never been a goal scorer, and he didn't score a lot this year. Just on the USNTDP, his U18 goals production is 30th all time, and 3rd on his team that year. A caveat with this is, as a late birthday, he was very young on his team. So these aren't schmuck numbers, but they don't bespeak a next level sniper either. So, I don't think he has 30 in him. People will counter that he had a tonne of shots, and a low shooting percentage in Boston this year. That's true. But how many of those shots are banging at rebounds where the goalie has the ice sealed, and the angle covered? Maybe that's just his shooting percentage? Just because it's a little low doesn't mean you can assume that it will go up.

So, in order to hit 60, he needs to get a lot of assists on an average year goal-wise. If you look at guys who reach 60 points or better with less than 30 goals, you get a lot of centers (the Getzlafs, the Granlunds), and a lot of PPQBs (Doughty, Carlson, P.K., Karlsson). Last year, there were a lot of players putting up bigger numbers due to the crackdown, but still it's relatively rare (48 players). Year before there were 30-ish.

Finally, let's check out his comparables. Because he went through the NCAA, there's relatively few. I can only think of one forward off the top of my head who followed the same path: Luke Kunin. Luke even had a better PPG in his NCAA season, and scored more than twice as many goals as Brady. Alex Tuch was a May birthday, so even though he was in the NCAA the year after his draft, he was only 4 months older. With similar NCAA production, and on a great NHL team he still hasn't found his way to 60 points 4 years later.

All in all, I think 50-ish points on a good year (perhaps in the 50s) is a good, charitable number to Brady.

Fair enough, and as i've said before, I defer to guys like you when it comes to this draft cause you've spent much more time watching and evaluating these guys than I have.

But I also trust my own judgement as it relates to players and based from what i've seen from Brady Tkachuk...I personally wouldn't be upset if he ended up being the Habs pick, the little i've seem from him doesn't scream out "do not draft!".

Would he be my top choice @ #3? No, certainly not...but this year, there doesn't seem to be a consensus at our spot and Tkachuk seems like one of many players who the Habs could potentially select at #3 that i'd be more than happy with.

Keep up the good work though - it's much appreciated.

I wouldn't cry over spilled milk - for which getting a prospect like Brady doesn't even qualify - either.

 

[WinterLion]

Move back to 6 pick up the Vegas 1st from Detroit & pick up Bergrren, Dellandrea, Sandin or Kaut?

Pick Dobson or Kotkienemi at 6?

Yeah... I could live with that....


Dreaming...

 

[Hoquei]

I'll just leave it here, take your own thoughts.

2018 NHL Draft: Joe Veleno vs Andrei Svechnikov

 

[Habs Icing]

IN A PERFECT WORLD :

Marc the man would trade for the 5th ( i would go 6th but heard the Wings want Kotka) for a swap of the 3ov+ a nice piece.

that way we get Kotka + a nice piece

Fifth is Coyotes no? How about their top draft pick and Domi.

 

[Runner77]

I've used this for a while, i've compared several past trades with the chart and the values check out.

Beats the system that an NHL team was using, which was scribbled on a piece of paper that got leaked to the internet and which basically established trade values to move up or down in the draft, using loose comparables with the past few years.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Yeah, I've seen some interest in him from other teams. It'll depend on who the fallers are and how many of them there are -- based on what the Black Book guy had said about how there was no consensus for projected picks 15-45. He might just slip to the beginning of the 2nd round on account of fallers.

I've only been able to see highlights of him, and the one game that's on youtube, so it's not like I'm some expert on him. But f*** me, those are some high end skills. Don't care if I'm wrong.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Fifth is Coyotes no? How about their top draft pick and Domi.

I could see that happening on the 5th pick + Domi. Montreal probably needs to add a little for Domi though. ( i was referring at the 6th because the Wings want Kotka too)

 

[Runner77]

I've only been able to see highlights of him, and the one game that's on youtube, so it's not like I'm some expert on him. But **** me, those are some high end skills. Don't care if I'm wrong.

And he plays center to boot. How much effort do the Habs put in to reach for him, I'm not sure about that. Like you, I don't believe he makes it to their first pick in the 2nd round.

 

[NotProkofievian]

A few guys there I have to check out. Of the 2nd round guys, i really like O'Brien. If we exit round 1 without a center, I really hope we target him. Lacks size, but we actually have good size down the middle so can afford a guy like him. Like Thomas too in the 2nd for that reason (if he falls).

I would recommend you check out SDA. It's Peterborough, and they are uniquely terrible, but he, Korostelev, and Gogolev are so goddamn fun to watch. He put up a 6 point game this year lol.

 

[Gains]

I didn't follow the draft, I have one question. Would people still be as high on Kotkaniemi if we actually had good centers on the team ?

How much of it is people blinded by our biggest need?