2018 Draft Thoughts/Summary/Poster Picks

BertCorbeau

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Jan 6, 2012
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we already have 2 smaller core player MM/Nylander on the team more pushing for spots on the Marlies so why keep drafting more ?

also there's a never ending supply of small skilled players in the draft and every team has some so unless they've already proven themselves as higher end players in the NHL they don't hold much value in trades

Again drafting based on your current roster is a bit shortsighted. By that logic, Tampa had some smaller core guys in Kucherov, Stamkos, Tyler Johnson - so why did they draft Brayden Point? And now with Point as a core guy, why'd they draft a 5'10 winger in the second round?

You draft in hopes that these players become impact guys.

To your second point I think that's too large of a generalization that every team has a massive stock of small skilled players. Are there a lot out there? Sure. Do they not hold much value until their bonafide stars? Not necessarily. They are good prospects to package together with other assets to get good players in return.
 
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RoadWarrior

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My comment was more on: does he value size much at all? Will we see another pint sized draft next year? We really don't know yet, he is an analytics guy without a traditional GM's background. Even if he does overvalue skills over need, if these are solid BPAs this year then its a great draft. It only becomes an issue if you start stocking up similar prospects, because the lower they are in your depth chart, the less they can show their stuff, and the less you can hope to get for them in a trade.

Now if you want the qualities of someone like a Wayne Simmonds you draft players with that basic package. Prospects don't just turn into nothing unless you take Tyler Biggs hoping he is what Tom Wilson turned out to be. If you spend your picks on Bracco's and Durzi's and Korshkovs you will never get that Simmonds type player, and you saw what it cost to trade for him. Teams don't want to trade that sort of an asset, so when they do, you will overpay. When the Leafs went for Middleton and Mattinen they didn't spend a top 100 pick, so the issue wasn't don't draft for size, more like don't spend low picks and count on a big return. Both those guys showed a lot of development though, just not quite enough. Every team in the league passed on Parayko his draft year, and then 85 times his draft+1. Will KD ever look at a Parayko? We don't know yet. We do know he will draft guys who have been passed over so maybe.

My first two picks would have been Veleno and Olofsson because the system lacks centers with size and they are pretty skilled too. I suspect both may be closer to Bozak than a true top center, so if Dubas' top two picks could definitely be better players but I will have filled a need, and KD's two D are competing with Reilly/Dermott and Lily/Zaits rather than the Bozak or the band-aid they bring in this summer.

Of course maybe Dubas is thinking two steps ahead, and he loves Sandin as a potential Reilly replacement who will in turn be moved out for cap reasons. We just don't know.

The bottom line is that top 4 d men are more difficult to acquire than rugged wingers. When you add the superior stats and analytics for Sandin and Durzi giving them both a 50%+ chance of becoming NHL regulars then it was an easy choice.
 

bonjovi0308

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Its not about recency bias or shiny new toys, but I think some people might have undervalued our picks this year. If we factor in potential as well, I think Sandin, Durzi, SDA and even Hollowell could possibly be in our top 10 or 12.

The already existing ones not in orders:
Lilj
Rosen
Borgman
Grundstrom
Engvall
Bracco

Forget about Rasanen, don't think he will make it, at least won't be with the Leafs
 

Mr Hockey

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May 11, 2017
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Its not about recency bias or shiny new toys, but I think some people might have undervalued our picks this year. If we factor in potential as well, I think Sandin, Durzi, SDA and even Hollowell could possibly be in our top 10 or 12.

The already existing ones not in orders:
Lilj
Rosen
Borgman
Grundstrom
Engvall
Bracco

Forget about Rasanen, don't think he will make it, at least won't be with the Leafs

so we should right off the 19 year old d'man who is signed to play in the KHL next season?
 

bonjovi0308

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so we should right off the 19 year old d'man who is signed to play in the KHL next season?
Its not about where he plays but how his skills would transfer to the NHL. Don't think he is what Dubas wants.
And yes, leaving NA because homesick is a troubling sign.
Just because he is a decent skater for a big man doesnt mean he is a good skater on an absolute basis in the NHL.
 
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biotk

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Jan 3, 2017
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My thoughts on the draft.

1) I spent very little time watching almost any of the draft prospects who were drafted by any team this year, so I can't argue that one player should have taken over another, and I have very little faith that 99.9% of those on these boards who claim to have that kind of knowledge when it comes to most of the players available this draft are doing any more than talking out their butts. I have a little more faith in scouting agencies, although I feel that most of them just rank players according to the other rankings while shuffling a couple players up and down. However, even if those agencies are more rigorous than that they are still just making general pronouncements and are obviously not in line with the methodology that any specific team is going to use. So, if Dubas picked player X, while player Y is still on the board, I don't care because it is not like Dubas didn't know about player Y, it is because Dubas and the people working for him decided that X was a better fit for the Leafs organization than player Y for whatever reasons. That doesn't mean that Dubas can't be wrong, but the reality is that he has sold Shanahan on his vision (and, as a Dubas supporter I look forward to seeing where that goes - which to me means no half measures).

2) The whole Dubas is all hung up on SSM and has tunnel vision towards players from there. I disagree. The Leafs are set on a certain brand of hockey. SSM plays a similar way. When Dubas looks at players who are playing there he gets to see that they are players who are a good fit, and thriving in, a system similar to the what the Leafs have (it is essentially bonus development time both pre-draft and post-draft if the players return to SSM) His connections with SSM allow him to know more about specific players - the kind of person the player is, more about their work ethic, more about how they handle stress etc than other teams likely know, and than he would know about players from other teams. Knowledge is power. If Dubas can look at 5 potential candidates who are pretty even for a specific draft position, but because one of those players played in SSM he also knows that they player would be a fit for the Leafs style, and on a personal level is the kind of player that the Leafs wants, he would be a fool not to take that player. The whole purpose of interviews at the combine is to try to gain the types of knowledge that you don't see from the stands. That is why they are valuable. If, due to connections, you already know much more than an interview could tell you, you are way ahead.

3) Trading down was a great move. Dubas got a player who he felt was a valuable as any player he would have got with the initial pick (and probably the exact same player he would have picked) and on top of that he got another 3rd rounder. It boggles the mind that people complain about that.

4) Dubas burning a 2nd round pick on a player they could've signed last season is not on him. If anything it shows how incompetent those who preceded him were. Hunter could have easily drafted him with a 6th or 7th round pick, but instead wasted picks on players who not only seem inferior today, but appear to have been inferior a year ago. Dubas couldn't have signed him last summer, but Lou could have. I would be interested in seeing who pushed for him to be at the development camp last year.

5) Small players. So what? I was supportive of the drafting of the giants last year, only because I was hoping that one of those giants drafted in 2016 or 2017 might turn into a Josh Manson type player. I still think that Josh Manson is astronomically valuable, but have come to terms that while D like Spurgeon and Krug might be rare - there is only Josh Manson. So the odds are far worse trying for him.

6) The SDA is not only small but he can't score complaint. He scored 3 times as many goals as Brooks during his D year (and is much younger).

7) Did Dubas find value in his picks? How the hell could anyone know at this point? If it is was known, or obvious, that the players Dubas picked had more value they would have been picked earlier. Five - ten years down the road we will know. I would assume that Dubas and Shanahan feel that the additional information they have on these prospects tilts the ice in their favour. I would assume that the Leafs have looked at the flaws of prospects who were available, and determined which flaws the Leafs can correct or reduce. I would assume that the Leafs have looked at the prospects who were available and determined which ones have the attributes that the Leafs value highly, but which other teams perhaps don't value as much when making picks (such as hockey IQ) and therefore were the best fit for the Leafs going forward.

It is a very inexact science, but I certainly trust the organization to do a better job of it than hfboard posters. Of course, I agree with the direction Dubas appears to be taking the team (and has taken his previous teams), so if you don't agree with that direction then your position should be the opposite. Only time will tell.

For what it is worth: Points per game during their D+1 year, among D drafted by the Leafs in the last 5 years who played in the CHL:

Durzi 1.23
Nielsen 0.99
Hollowell 0.89
Sandin 0.88 (note - D year - and young for his draft class)
Dermott 0.84
Kral 0.65
Rasanen 0.54
Valiyev 0.51
Gordeev 0.37
Desrocher 0.35
Middleton 0.28
Mattinen 0.12

We have seen what Dermott can do. Nielsen has run into a wall with his skating and I don't see a future for him with the organization, but can likely be traded as part of a package for an asset. I don't see the bottom 4 ever returning anything. Durzi, Hollowell, Sandin and Kral look beyond damn good in comparison unless what you value is size. I understand people thinking that size is really valuable. That is my bias too, and I work to overcome it. None of the giants took a real step forward during their D+1.
 
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embracedbias

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People on this website just read the rankings and then profile information written by scouts. People think players they are most familiar with are probably the best ones to pick. Then, when a familiar player drops from where the rankings had him, they assume it's a hugely fortunate thing that they are available. When these players aren't picked, people criticize the team (who employ scouts whose literal profession is to watch hockey and who have actually watched the players in action).

A team that fired their scouts and simply took whichever player was the highest on an aggregate of whatever rankings are out there would "win" the draft on hfboards every single year.
 
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Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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And how many of the small players that we drafted outside of MM and Nypander have panned out ?

And my point wasn't that I don't want to draft small players but that there's only so many you can dress .

Think about how radically different the Leafs roster of today is compared to four years ago. There is a high amount of change over that period of time.

You don’t draft today especially with late round picks in the late first and mid to late round picks the draft for current needs, youre just hoping to get NHLers.

Being concerned about having too many small players, is really worried about a problem that quite frankly doesn’t exist yet.
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

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Sep 28, 2015
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i'd honestly be pissed if Dubas just followed public draft lists. I want him to get the players he wants, not the players that the general public can figure out are good by doing a few minutes of research. And yes, I'm including myself in that. I know I don't know shit about 99.99% of prospects in the draft, even though I looked into it a couple of days in advance. Dubas has incredibly in depth data acquired by a huge well-funded staff over the course of several months. I know it's fun to share your own opinion, but come on. He got the players he wanted, and that should be good enough for us
 
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SeaOfBlue

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Aug 1, 2013
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I hope the Leafs invite Kotkov. He must have some sort of unknown issue because I have no idea how this guy got out of the 2nd or 3rd round, never mind went undrafted. He would have probably been the second most talented player we drafted. He's exactly the type of bigger players the Leafs should be looking at picking up.

I'd also look at bringing in Anderson MacDonald, Chase Wouters and Luka Burzan. MacDonald needs work, but he has major offensive skill and potential. The other two are like Stotts.
 

SeaOfBlue

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I hope the Leafs invite Kotkov. He must have some sort of unknown issue because I have no idea how this guy got out of the 2nd or 3rd round, never mind went undrafted. He would have probably been the second most talented player we drafted. He's exactly the type of bigger players the Leafs should be looking at picking up.

I'd also look at bringing in Anderson MacDonald, Chase Wouters and Luka Burzan. MacDonald needs work, but he has major offensive skill and potential. The other two are like Stotts.

NVM Kotkov already went to Colorado.

Moskal is going to CBJ camp.

Wouters is going to TBL camp. Figures, they make their bread and butter off of guys like him.

Burzan and MacDonald are still out there for now.
 

TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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i'd honestly be pissed if Dubas just followed public draft lists. I want him to get the players he wants, not the players that the general public can figure out are good by doing a few minutes of research. And yes, I'm including myself in that. I know I don't know **** about 99.99% of prospects in the draft, even though I looked into it a couple of days in advance. Dubas has incredibly in depth data acquired by a huge well-funded staff over the course of several months. I know it's fun to share your own opinion, but come on. He got the players he wanted, and that should be good enough for us

Shouldn't he be taking the players his scouts recommend, not just the players he wants? That is their job. According to 93Leafs (who has contacts) they were not exactly working in sync, in fact a number of scouts were fired right after the draft (as reported by Mirtle), and there's a chance of a lot more turnover as well.
 

TheMadHatTrick

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NVM Kotkov already went to Colorado.

Moskal is going to CBJ camp.

Wouters is going to TBL camp. Figures, they make their bread and butter off of guys like him.

Burzan and MacDonald are still out there for now.

Are European guys in Europe eligible to be signed? I'd love to add Grachyov.

If not I'd see if Bucek can be given a camp invite.
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

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Sep 28, 2015
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Shouldn't he be taking the players his scouts recommend, not just the players he wants? That is their job. According to 93Leafs (who has contacts) they were not exactly working in sync, in fact a number of scouts were fired right after the draft (as reported by Mirtle), and there's a chance of a lot more turnover as well.
it depends really. All I expect scouts to do is accumulate data and give their opinions. Dubas should be the one deciding what to look for in players and whatnot. I definitely expect him to listen to the scouts and take their opinions seriously, but ultimately the direction that the team goes in is up to him
 

TheMadHatTrick

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it depends really. All I expect scouts to do is accumulate data and give their opinions. Dubas should be the one deciding what to look for in players and whatnot. I definitely expect him to listen to the scouts and take their opinions seriously, but ultimately the direction that the team goes in is up to him

I'd be fine with that if Dubas had a long track record in scouting like Hunter did, but he's more of a stats guy, and hasn't had as much experience at his age scouting players. I'd expect him to lean on more experienced guys and augment their info with his, rather than the other way around. I doubt he's seen the prospects this year as much as some of the guys on his staff.
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

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I'd be fine with that if Dubas had a long track record in scouting like Hunter did, but he's more of a stats guy, and hasn't had as much experience at his age scouting players. I'd expect him to lean on more experienced guys and augment their info with his, rather than the other way around. I doubt he's seen the prospects this year as much as some of the guys on his staff.
well for all I know, that could be all that happened. he could have just said to find the guys who fit his criteria and they did that, which is fine with me. Whatever his involvement in the draft is, I would much rather it involves his personal approach rather than telling his scouts to go by McKenzie's lists or whatever
 

TheMadHatTrick

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well for all I know, that could be all that happened. he could have just said to find the guys who fit his criteria and they did that, which is fine with me. Whatever his involvement in the draft is, I would much rather it involves his personal approach rather than telling his scouts to go by McKenzie's lists or whatever

I'm sure more will come out at a later date, but from what someone told me that's not what happened at all. It will be interesting to see if there are more firings or resignations in the scouting department in the next little while. That would constitute a bit of smoke.
 

SeaOfBlue

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Aug 1, 2013
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Are European guys in Europe eligible to be signed? I'd love to add Grachyov.

If not I'd see if Bucek can be given a camp invite.

No. At least since that one time the Oilers tried to sign some guy and were not allowed. I think the Islanders now own him.

If the European guy is not on loan to a CHL team, I think he is though. Bucek, for example, would be allowed to be signed and has yet to been invited.

I know nothing about Grachyov. Production is intriguing, but if he does not have the IQ then I doubt the Leafs will add him. He too has yet to be invited.
 
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SeaOfBlue

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What is this about the Leafs firing scouts? I just went on the Management page and found a bunch of guys missing? Both Russian scouts (Namestnikov and Ladygin), two pro scouts (Stewart and Albelin; makes sense since Albelin was a Lou guy and Stewart I believe was a Hunter guy) and Mike Gerritts, but he left on his own well before the Leafs knew what they were going to do with the front office. So is it something about the Russian scouts he did not like or something? Nobody else seems to be missing.
 

SeaOfBlue

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According to Mirtle, Leafs let go of Albelin, Lemaire, Caron, Ladygrin, Namestnikov from their various pro/European/advisory positions.

This is what I was looking for. Stewart also let go it seems, but that may have happened earlier.

Albelin, Lemaire and Caron were all Lou's friends. I fully expected that since they had no ties to the organization anymore and expect all of them to go to the Islanders. Namestnikov was a recent addition so maybe he was attached to Hunter or Lou. Ladygin is an interesting one since he's been here for like 15 years now. I guess Dubas was not happy with the Russian scouting, even though they did pick up some good gems over the years (at least on the pro side of things; amateur is a little bit more questionable).

I mean most of the Russian guys were selected in the late rounds, but Korshkov was questionable and so was Kara. The Leafs have not draft many Russians since Ladygin has been here and the only one who turned into anything (at least so far) was Kulemin in the 2nd round. I can see them being at the end of their rope with him after saving him from the initial purge. Namestnikov is a little bit more weird though because he seems to be more successful and responsible for the recent picks and signings, and even if they were iffy, it seems odd to axe him so soon. Especially since Zaitsev and Soshnikov have already turned out well in a short period of time.

Does this really look bad on Dubas, or is it just trying to improve the scouting staff that has kind of gone stale or no longer has ties to the organization? I expect a lot more cuts to be made. A lot of these guys are old regime and maybe are not the right fit for the direction Dubas is going, which I believe is the right direction (high emphasis on hockey IQ).
 

Kiwi

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I'm sure more will come out at a later date, but from what someone told me that's not what happened at all. It will be interesting to see if there are more firings or resignations in the scouting department in the next little while. That would constitute a bit of smoke.

That's not going to tell us much

No matter what happened the scouting side was going to get a major shakeup, Hunter had a strong hand in putting it together so i'd expect a fair number of them to go no matter what happened at the draft

It's Dubas team now so it's his staff to put together and build with guys that follow his drafting philosophy
 

93LEAFS

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That's not going to tell us much

No matter what happened the scouting side was going to get a major shakeup, Hunter had a strong hand in putting it together so i'd expect a fair number of them to go no matter what happened at the draft

It's Dubas team now so it's his staff to put together and build with guys that follow his drafting philosophy
I expect most of our Ontario scouts to be replaced or already gone. Ontario was pretty much covered by Hunter, Hofford, and Tony Martino yet we drafted primarily from Ontario. I would be surprised if Hofford and Martino still have jobs in September with the Maple Leafs, as they are both solidly Hunter guys.

If Dubas didn't trust or think highly of the Ontario guys, it seems to be a fair belief he just went on his own instinct or beliefs. I would have thought he would have leaned more on his Euro or Western Canada guys who are likely to stay due to this.
 

SeaOfBlue

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Aug 1, 2013
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Shouldn't he be taking the players his scouts recommend, not just the players he wants? That is their job. According to 93Leafs (who has contacts) they were not exactly working in sync, in fact a number of scouts were fired right after the draft (as reported by Mirtle), and there's a chance of a lot more turnover as well.

I will say, only 2 of those guys were considered amateur scouts. One of them was a pro scout who was attached to Lou at the hip, and the other two were consultants (nothing really to do with scouting) who pretty much just did it for fun and to join Lou's old boy's club. Those three were 100% going to leave as soon as Lou announced he was leaving. The only surprises on that list are Ladygin and Namestnikov, and there are a few other guys who kind of just disappeared (Gerrits and Stewart) as well.

Hardly any sort of disaster. We knew that there could have been some guys who were probably going to follow Hunter. Ladygin is interesting since he's been here so long, but maybe there was a performance issue with him.
 

93LEAFS

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If true, letting go of Namestnikov is dumb. He is one of our main channels in Russia/KHL (which is underscouted) and helped orchestrate Zaitsev and Ozhiganov from CSKA Moscow.
Namestinkov was a Hunter loyalist. They are very close. Not a shock at all he is gone. He was one of the names I mentioned when Hunter left in May (alongside Paliafito and Hofford) as key guys in Amateur scouting who are absolutely Hunter guys.
 

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