2018 Draft Thoughts/Summary/Poster Picks

[BertCorbeau]

I actually like this draft as well.

From an organizational standpoint, they've put some depth at key positions (D and C). There does seem to be the key theme of high IQ players that can skate well with some skill, and nothing particular on size. Certainly seems like there are some analytics at play in these decisions too. Gives me a better impression going forward than the last couple of drafts.

Sidenote - the Leafs have now drafted a goalie in 3 straight years. I like that idea. Keep a stockpile of goalie prospects in the system in case one hits. It comes with the advantage of having a lot of picks in the draft.

 

[Brolaf]

• Very strong emphasis on selecting for hockey IQ this draft.
• All defencemen drafted had high point production, obviously less emphasis placed on size.
• From reading their draft profiles, it was interesting that both Sandin and Kral were highly praised for being adept neutral zone defenders and preventing controlled entries by the opposition. This might be a clue as to the type of team and play style that Dubas advocates.
• Interesting that several of the drafted players were noted for having good skating agility but lacking in explosiveness and power. This leads me to believe that the Leafs Org has confidence in their development system to fix these issues (i.e. Barb Underhill).
• Drafting three overagers (Durzi, Hollowell, Holmberg) suggests that the Leafs still see this as an area where market inefficiencies can be exploited.
• Semyon Der-Arguchintsev was one of the more interesting prospects to me simply because of his age, being the youngest player in the draft. When you adjust for age, his rate of production isn't that far off from guys like Serron Noel and Ty Dellandrea. The skill is definitely there so it will be interesting to see where he ends up once he become more physically mature. Those who advocate the boom/bust approach to later picks should be happy with this selection.
• All players drafted had decent offensive upside and respectable point production. This is a departure from 2016 and 2017 where a number of players were drafted for their physical tools with the hope that the offensive skill could be developed later. In a sense, I think the team has returned to the draft philosophy that we witnessed in 2015 (not surprisingly).

 

[aingefan]

Nice observations brolaf.
Very much agree on points three and four. Lots of trust in the development system, find targets that are trending in good ways, and, get ‘em in the system.

 

[blueberrie]

A very small draft. I wonder if Dubas thinks he can win with a 5'11 team or if these were all clear BPA to them and the lightweight collection was just a coincidence? The Leafs are a soft club with a small soft pipeline of talent. If you don't solve that in the draft you do it by trade and that is costly. Maybe KD thinks they are not too soft, who knows. I don't think taking Veleno and Olofsson would have been a reach "for need". Its a C draft for me until those top two picks prove me wrong. Their two 3rds could be the ones to watch though. Hard to be a stud on a doormat team.

Didnt our small soft pipeline just win it all in the wild west AHL?

 

[4thline]

From the locked thread:
Disappointed at no Wise or Hallander in the 2nd, but Durzi is a fine substitute. It was a fine draft that will be exciting to follow. It be nice to have non-AHL prospects turning heads again. The forward group seems to have tremendous upside for their draft positions.

Side note- if given these names without their draft slots and left to assume where we got them I think the board would be much more receptive to this group of players. That is to say- it's a nice crop, now that they're in the system the order doesn't matter

eg-
29- Sandin
52-Durzi
76-Kral
83-Stotts
118-SDA
149-Kizimov - (Russian darkhorse with 3 in 3 at the U18's, only 4 less points than Denisenko)
156- Holmberg- Bergman special
209- Hollowell overage undersized offensive Dman hail mary
2011- Bouthillier

 

[Brobust]

Rasmus Sandin - The more I hear about Sandin, the more I'm liking him. He's an actual defenceman rather than just being a point machine like Bouchard/Hughes. I feel like there's a very good chance that he could be a matchup defenceman for the leafs. I wouldn't have minded if they traded up a few spots for K'Andre, but Sandin is basically almost at his level. Here's a bold take: in 5 years the three best defencemen from this draft will be Rasmus, K'Andre and Rasmus.

Sean Durzi/SDA/Riley Stotts - There's something about all three of these guys that hampered their development or kept them behind the development curve. Sean Durzi had an extra bone in his ankle and needed surgery and it probably affected his skating. Riley Stotts career was in jeopardy after losing toes in a skate injury. He probably had to completely change the way he skates. SDA is just the youngest guy in the draft. This kind of reminds me of the 'growth spurt' player. Skilled guys that fall down in the rankings because they had a growth spurt and had to relearn and adjust to their size which led to dips in production.

 

[Judas Tavares]

As for comparison to 2017 in terms of how I feel right after.

2017 is was thrilled with Lilly dropping and that kind of sums that draft up. At least we got a Lilly. Was not thrilled at all with day 2.

This year I was less thrilled in the 1st with Sandin. And while Day 2 wasn't earth shattering, I'll take it way over last year's.

While Lilly was the prize between these 2 classes, I have more hope this class will produce more than one player.

 

[Stephen]

I like Kyle Dubas' approach and whatever I'm saying is just a critique of a work in progress, snapshot in time kind of thing.

The draft has some similarities to the 2015 draft.

The trade down to get Sandin looks like the Dermott playbook, which in 2015 yielded Dzierkals and Bracco. In 2018, it brought SDA. As time goes on, it's worth revisiting if the sum of the trade downs equal or surpasses the guys they traded away from: Konecny, Carlsson, Bokk. Reason I say this is, it's good to operate with historical percentages in mind, but you also have to balance that out with a team hungry enough to trade up. So are we giving up the chance to pick special players?

Overage players. So the thought process is you get an extra year of development for free, a bit more understanding of what the player is, etc. but also means you have to hand them a contract faster and have to bring them up earlier after the draft.

 

[DavePoulin4PM]

So let’s sum up the first 4 rounds:

- Dubas trades down and gets fleeced.
- Dubas selects undersized, soft, low ceiling dman from (of course) SSM.
- In round 2 Dubas selects a 98’ born defenseman, who they could’ve signed last season, without burning a 2nd round draft pick.
- Round 3 Dubas selects another mini mite, who can’t even score goals at the junior level. Stotts is an OK pick.
- Round 4 he selects another undersized, 19 year old, dman from you guessed it SSM. He has no chance of being an NHL player and probably would have went undrafted.

So we know this about Dubas:

1) He loves undersized players.
2) He just can’t stop himself from drafting players from SSM.
3) He was unable to find any value whatsoever with these draft picks.
4) He can’t find value in a trade.

This draft is nothing short of embarrassing. If Dubas goal is to make this team as small and soft as possible, then he is doing a tremendous job.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Pronman gives us a B- for the draft, with B- being the average grade.

Given where we place in the standings now (lately), I think this something we need to get used to.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

i'd give the draft a 7/10. it wasn't perfect, or even great, but I'm happy with it. If you didn't notice yet, Dubas wants what he wants. this draft he wanted smart and talented players. That doesn't mean it will always be like that, though. if you listen to his interview he says that the league is cyclical and right now it's trending towards skill and intelligence. that doesn't mean he hates size, but that he recognizes that it's not very important right now. Once he feels that changes, he'll go for size. I can't say enough how happy I am with his approach to building a team, and I think he got some interesting players who are talented at hockey. We'll see what happens

 

[Daisy Jane]

I know there are people who complain that people focus on height etc, but I don't think it's fair that gets dismissed. Just as, I think it's kind of shortsighted that people just dismiss shorter players (or wingers, or whatever) because they have old-fashioned ideologies how to build a team.

I'm pretty sure there are very tall, great skating, high skilled smart players. It would be nice if we could find them (and some meanness etc) into the line up. I think it would help. some of these people will have a growth spurt so we'll see.

I am also quite confident there are small dumb players. not every 'small player' is a 'oooooh yay!!' and not every tall player is 'ewwww, why?"

per usual i have zero thoughts on the draft. i just hope they all develop well and we get a few nuts from the tree to help our team down the line. 2-3 would be great.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I know there are people who complain that people focus on height etc, but I don't think it's fair that gets dismissed. Just as, I think it's kind of shortsighted that people just dismiss shorter players (or wingers, or whatever) because they have old-fashioned ideologies how to build a team.

I'm pretty sure there are very tall, great skating, high skilled smart players. It would be nice if we could find them (and some meanness etc) into the line up. I think it would help. some of these people will have a growth spurt so we'll see.

I am also quite confident there are small dumb players. not every 'small player' is a 'oooooh yay!!' and not every tall player is 'ewwww, why?"

per usual i have zero thoughts on the draft. i just hope they all develop well and we get a few nuts from the tree to help our team down the line. 2-3 would be great.

well there were two tall, extremely skilled, extremely hard working, and extremely smart players in the draft, but they went 1 and 2 overall. If Sandin, Durzi, or Hollowell were 6'4 they'd all have gone much higher. When you pick later on in a draft, you have to be more willing to accept flaws, because there will assuredly be some. The flaws Hunter were willing to accept were being unable to skate or make any plays. The flaws Dubas was willing to accept in this draft was not being tall or being overage (although Hunter was okay with that one too). It sure looks like Dubas had the better approach, but a lot remains to be seen of course.

 

[Daisy Jane]

well there were two tall, extremely skilled, extremely hard working, and extremely smart players in the draft, but they went 1 and 2 overall. If Sandin, Durzi, or Hollowell were 6'4 they'd all have gone much higher. When you pick later on in a draft, you have to be more willing to accept flaws, because there will assuredly be some. The flaws Hunter were willing to accept were being unable to skate or make any plays. The flaws Dubas was willing to accept in this draft was not being tall or being overage (although Hunter was okay with that one too). It sure looks like Dubas had the better approach, but a lot remains to be seen of course.

well of course. it's just general thing, like we go through this every year. with every pick. i'm just saying i dont think people are wrong to want taller players and not every smaller player is the answer. (but not all small players are wrong either). like if we got wingers people would complain, etc or vice versa.

we'll just have to see.

 

[DavePoulin4PM]

There was one sub 6’ dman in the finals this year and that was Orlov. You need size on the backend. Maybe Dubas doesn’t realize this is the NHL.

 

[4thline]

Sandin/Durzi/Kral all between 5'11 and 6'1, all will play likely play above 190 when NHL ready.

The only people dumb enough to care about the difference between 5'11 and 6'1 as if 6' is some sort of meaningful threshold are basic bitches on tinder and uneducated dinosaurs

signed- a healthy 6'1

 

[nuck]

Didnt our small soft pipeline just win it all in the wild west AHL?

That plus two bucks gets them a cup of coffee. AHL lineups full of tweeners who will never be in the NHL full time can impose their will on teams with fewer of said tweeners but that doesn't translate to the NHL. The Leafs don't have the advantage of calling down players from a higher league to juice them in the playoffs either. Love the Marlies but the Leafs will never achieve that top heavy talent level in the NHL.

 

[Menzinger]

A very small draft. I wonder if Dubas thinks he can win with a 5'11 team or if these were all clear BPA to them and the lightweight collection was just a coincidence? The Leafs are a soft club with a small soft pipeline of talent. If you don't solve that in the draft you do it by trade and that is costly. Maybe KD thinks they are not too soft, who knows. I don't think taking Veleno and Olofsson would have been a reach "for need". Its a C draft for me until those top two picks prove me wrong. Their two 3rds could be the ones to watch though. Hard to be a stud on a doormat team.

The Leafs 2016 and 2017 draft cycles definitely placed size as a major consideration in who they selected and I don’t that will deliver any better results or more players than this draft.

Just select players you think have. A legitimate chance of becoming an NHLer and then worry about the makeup of your NHL roster later

 

[biotk]

There was one sub 6’ dman in the finals this year and that was Orlov. You need size on the backend. Maybe Dubas doesn’t realize this is the NHL.

Certainly if either Kempny or Djoos (who eliteprospects actually lists as 5'11" - and who weighs less than 170 lbs) were an inch shorter the Caps would have washed out early on.

 

[blueberrie]

OHL GA Leaders

Soo 186
Kingston 202
Hamilton 207
London 212


I was a bit uneasy about Dubas seemingly drafting because of team familiarity. Thats not great. Drafting because of team defensive dominance is a lot greater. Leafs drafted 2 of the best dmen from the best defensive team in the OHL.

 

[Funk21]

This is how I feel!

 

[cannucky]

He did a great job if we are forming a dwarf league ffs , 5'11" 185 lbs , 5'9" 170 lbs these are our next gen D ? what a joke we just got beat up and run out of the arena in the first round , the 4 teams that went to the conference finals all had serious bangers anchoring the back end and we go peewee hockey .

 

[Walshy7]

So let’s sum up the first 4 rounds:

- Dubas trades down and gets fleeced.
- Dubas selects undersized, soft, low ceiling dman from (of course) SSM.
- In round 2 Dubas selects a 98’ born defenseman, who they could’ve signed last season, without burning a 2nd round draft pick.
- Round 3 Dubas selects another mini mite, who can’t even score goals at the junior level. Stotts is an OK pick.
- Round 4 he selects another undersized, 19 year old, dman from you guessed it SSM. He has no chance of being an NHL player and probably would have went undrafted.

So we know this about Dubas:

1) He loves undersized players.
2) He just can’t stop himself from drafting players from SSM.
3) He was unable to find any value whatsoever with these draft picks.
4) He can’t find value in a trade.

This draft is nothing short of embarrassing. If Dubas goal is to make this team as small and soft as possible, then he is doing a tremendous job.

So lets sum up your 258 posts
- whinging

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

OHL GA Leaders

Soo 186
Kingston 202
Hamilton 207
London 212


I was a bit uneasy about Dubas seemingly drafting because of team familiarity. Thats not great. Drafting because of team defensive dominance is a lot greater. Leafs drafted the 2 of the best dmen from the best defensive team in the OHL.

i'm not worried about Dubas drafting Soo players for a couple of reasons, but that's definitely a good one. First of all, he wouldn't have traded back and risk losing him if he was really as dependent on drafting him as people want to claim.

Secondly, it's likely that he's even harder on Soo players and that they have to actually do more to impress him than an average player would. I know this isn't iron-clad, but there was a lot of speculation that Kekalainen passed on Puljujarvi because he was Finnish and that he didn't want to appear biased in that way. There's also talk of how scouts will often be more reluctant to talk up players with their same nationality in order to overcompensate to not appearing biased. I'm sure Dubas doesn't want to look biased by picking one of his guys, and having him not pan out. he wouldn't pick a Soo player if he wasn't sure.

I rambled a bit more than I usually like to, but I feel pretty confidence that Dubas wouldn't shoot himself or the team in the foot.

 

[Havoc]

He did a great job if we are forming a dwarf league ffs , 5'11" 185 lbs , 5'9" 170 lbs these are our next gen D ? what a joke we just got beat up and run out of the arena in the first round , the 4 teams that went to the conference finals all had serious bangers anchoring the back end and we go peewee hockey .

Even if one person pans out from this draft it won't be for another 2 years minimum. Most likely it will take between 3-6 years for most.

Please tell me how this draft means we're going peewee hockey.

Realistically only 1 player from this draft is on the roster in 3 years and that player will have high IQ and skill. High IQ players >>>>> "Serious bangers"

Serious bangers with high IQ and high skill go top 10 in round 1. Don't know where people expect Leafs to find these guys where we pick.

All other teams have to dress 18 skaters as well and they're not getting top 10 value on their late picks either. Sure every season a 3-7th round pick emerges as an impact player but that's usually players none of us even thought would be the breakout star. A team dressing players who read the game well will win majority of their games. Serious bangers will get walked around.