NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

[BonkTastic]

Pro Ukraine, anti-Russia. His stance isn't exactly hidden.

Like I said, it's not the be all end all factor. But we don't even have a single Russian in the entire organization, that doesn't happen by accident.

I don't think it's much of a secret that we don't scout within Russia, but I would bet it's more due to the fact that
1) we have a smaller than usual scouting budget and have obviously decided to cut Russia off entirely rather than weaken our scouting depth by spreading our already too-few European scouts too thin over too large of an area to cover, and
2) due to uncertainty over Russian prospects committing to North America and the cost of convincing them to do so in some cases.

Also: point #2 makes deciding to commit to point #1 easier to justify.

I mean, maybe some of Melnyk's obvious anti-Russia personal worldview has something to do with it, but we did sign Gonchar and Kovalev, and traded for a guy like Filatov. We don't like DRAFTING Russians, but we seem at the very least amenable to having them in the organization.

 

[stempniaksen]

I don't think it's much of a secret that we don't scout within Russia, but I would bet it's more due to the fact that
1) we have a smaller than usual scouting budget and have obviously decided to cut Russia off entirely rather than weaken our scouting depth by spreading our already too-few European scouts too thin over too large of an area to cover, and
2) due to uncertainty over Russian prospects committing to North America and the cost of convincing them to do so in some cases.

Also: point #2 makes deciding to commit to point #1 easier to justify.

I mean, maybe some of Melnyk's obvious anti-Russia personal worldview has something to do with it, but we did sign Gonchar and Kovalev, and traded for a guy like Filatov. We don't like DRAFTING Russians, but we seem at the very least amenable to having them in the organization.

Do we though? Those examples are all from 5+ years ago. Serious question, has there been a Russian in the Sens organization since then?

I totally get that we don't draft out of Russia, and that there is significant difference between drafting a potential flight risk out of the KHL and drafting a kid who has played in North America. I just think all things being equal the organization won't take a Russian. That may not have anything to do with EM's world views (I think it's part of it, but that's an opinion not a fact) but it's consistent with the fact we don't have a single one in the organization.

 

[BonkTastic]

Do we though? Those examples are all from 5+ years ago. Serious question, has there been a Russian in the Sens organization since then?

I totally get that we don't draft out of Russia, and that there is significant difference between drafting a potential flight risk out of the KHL and drafting a kid who has played in North America. I just think all things being equal the organization won't take a Russian. That may not have anything to do with EM's world views (I think it's part of it, but that's an opinion not a fact) but it's consistent with the fact we don't have a single one in the organization.

Russians rarely take home-town discounts as UFAs, or sign for under-market values. Russians who find themselves on the bubble of making NHL teams know that they can get better deals in Russia, so they usually opt to play at home.

Based on our finances over the past half-decade, our UFA signing trends, and our available room "within the internal budget", that's all you really have to know to understand why we haven't signed any Russians in that timeframe.

 

[Xspyrit]

Gonchar and Kovalev were pre-Crimea (I think, someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) so they wouldn't factor in.

I must have missed something but... how is it related to Melnyk?

Again, I'm not saying that a player being Russian automatically means they won't play for the Ottawa Senators. I'm very (fairly) sure the Senators would take Svech at #2 all things considered, and I'm sure the organization had varying levels of interest in all the players BondraTime listed. What I am saying, is that if everything is equal the organization will never take the Russian player, and I think the proof is in the pudding there, when you look at our roster.

It doesn't prove much, most teams don't have a Russian. You know how many Russians actually play in the NHL?

Active Russian NHL Players ‑ All-Time Stats

Not many regulars on that list, some goalies, some star players and some rookies trying to make it. If they don't succeed or just get marginal contracts, they won't stay in the NHL very long. They'd rather play at home for more money. Only 25 of the players listed played more than 100 NHL games.

Even in those "regular players", some of them did jet at some point (Radulov, Burmistrov, etc); some took a lot of time before coming over (Panarin, Dadonov, Tarasenko, Zaitsev, Emelin, etc) and it was far from being a sure thing.

Just looking at that list tells me that if you're not drafting a future star that will make make big bucks, drafting a Russian rarely works.

EDIT : if you have the time, check where those guys were drafted. I would guess that most were picked high, not leaving the Sens a lot of chances to draft them as we don't usually draft very high.

 

[topshelf15]

I must have missed something but... how is it related to Melnyk?



It doesn't prove much, most teams don't have a Russian. You know how many Russians actually play in the NHL?

Active Russian NHL Players ‑ All-Time Stats

Not many regulars on that list, some goalies, some star players and some rookies trying to make it. If they don't succeed or just get marginal contracts, they won't stay in the NHL very long. They'd rather play at home for more money. Only 25 of the players listed played more than 100 NHL games.

Even in those "regular players", some of them did jet at some point (Radulov, Burmistrov, etc); some took a lot of time before coming over (Panarin, Dadonov, Tarasenko, Zaitsev, Emelin, etc) and it was far from being a sure thing.

Just looking at that list tells me that if you're not drafting a future star that will make make big bucks, drafting a Russian rarely works.

Yep agreed the KHL while it doesnt pay as much as it used too..Pays a hell of a lot more than the AHL

 

[stempniaksen]

I must have missed something but... how is it related to Melnyk?



It doesn't prove much, most teams don't have a Russian. You know how many Russians actually play in the NHL?

Active Russian NHL Players ‑ All-Time Stats

Not many regulars on that list, some goalies, some star players and some rookies trying to make it. If they don't succeed or just get marginal contracts, they won't stay in the NHL very long. They'd rather play at home for more money. Only 25 of the players listed played more than 100 NHL games.

Even in those "regular players", some of them did jet at some point (Radulov, Burmistrov, etc); some took a lot of time before coming over (Panarin, Dadonov, Tarasenko, Zaitsev, Emelin, etc) and it was far from being a sure thing.

Just looking at that list tells me that if you're not drafting a future star that will make make big bucks, drafting a Russian rarely works.

EDIT : if you have the time, check where those guys were drafted. I would guess that most were picked high, not leaving the Sens a lot of chances to draft them as we don't usually draft very high.

That's not counting Russians in the AHL though, granted that's still a smaller number than I thought. I'd be interested in seeing how many other organizations have zero Russians (NHL, AHL and drafted), if their are a handful it certainly gives my theory less credence. I'm not really one to believe in chance, so when I see that there hasn't been a Russian in the entire organization in over years there's gotta be something bigger at play (although Bonktastic's theory makes a lot of sense and obviously not having an amateur scout in Russia plays into it as well).

Just to clarify, I don't think Russians are completely blacklisted from the Senators organization, I just think they have to be THAT much better than their counterparts (like how I view Svechnikov in the upcoming draft) for all of the reasons brought up in this thread.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

If we end up with the 4th pick, it would be cool if another team was in love with someone like Tkachuk or Dobson and took them over Zadina and we snagged him at 4.

 

[18Hossa]

I must have missed something but... how is it related to Melnyk?

Melnyk is Ukrainian and is proud if it so the Russia Crimea stuff made him more anti-russian supposedly. Idk if this claim has merit but it would make some sense, but don't think it would have that big an impact on drafting/signing russians.
The Sens even did a Ukrainian Heritage Night or something similar last year or two years ago iirc.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Pretty good company

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I must have missed something but... how is it related to Melnyk?
.

Melynk has been active in supporting Ukraine efforts against Russia/rebels.

I don't remember all the details off the top of my head, but there was a lot of joking around when he sent shipments of hockey helmets to protestors to protect them from attacks and things of that sort.

 

[Cosmix]

My worry is we end up at 2, the scouts clearly have Svechnikov as their 2nd best player and they don't/aren't allowed to take him cause of the Russian factor. I spoke to some guys in hockey ops with the team back in January and basically told me they wouldn't be allowed to take him, also mentioned the team was high on Tkachuk who knows if that's changed though.

The GM has been high on Brassard, high on Burrows, high on Duchene and high on Thompson. Too damn high IMO.

 

[Cosmix]

lol really?

Alexei Kaigorodov
Vitaly Atyushov
Igor Mirnov
Sergei Gimayev
Kirill Lyamin
Alexander Nikulin
Vitali Anikeyenko
Ilya Zubov
Dmitry Megalinsky
Ruslan Bashkirov

There was a time the team was drafting a lot of russians, some with relatively high picks. Many of them had the talent to play in the NHL but just never came. The organization (under Muckler) got burned so many times by this and it was a big reason why the team had a weak prospect pool for a while, which caused them to eventually get out of contention. In the salary cap era you need good cheap rookies to bolster your line-up. You can't come empty in several drafts, look at our drafting from 2002 to 2007

Ever heard about "the Russian Factor"? Just google it and you will find many articles of how it impacted the NHL draft. If some think that the Ottawa Senators is the only team who have taken this in consideration, they are heavily mistaken.

Russian Factor Definition - Sporting Charts
The Russian factor

Today, that "factor" is less than it was but there was a period of time were it was very REAL.

But if you want to think otherwise, fell free to do so.

That list looks like a list of “busts”. Perhaps the Senators should have avoided picking them.

 

[branch]

As long as we don't pick Evan Bouchard in the top 5 I'll be happy.

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Tkachuk
5. Wahlstrom

Is my order

 

[Sensinitis]

Pretty good company

Whoa Matthews is such a beast leading the way at 16.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Whoa Matthews is such a beast leading the way at 16.

Franchise player for sure.. He is excellent

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Whoa Matthews is such a beast leading the way at 16.

If you like Matthews, you'll love Jack Hughes. Catch him in the Colorado avalanche line up in 2019.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

I don't know much about USDP, how come Jack Hughes isn't there? he is sitting at 2.0pts per game as a 16 year old.

 

[Icelevel]

As long as we don't pick Evan Bouchard in the top 5 I'll be happy.

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Tkachuk
5. Wahlstrom

Is my order

Yeah not sure between tkachuk and wahlstrom but safe enough.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Decent comparison article on Dobson, Smith and Bouchard
Prospect Ramblings: Breaking Down Ty Smith, Evan Bouchard & Noah Dobson

 

[branch]

Decent comparison article on Dobson, Smith and Bouchard
Prospect Ramblings: Breaking Down Ty Smith, Evan Bouchard & Noah Dobson

Bouchard is already built like a mature 28 year old man. I think his ceiling is low. Not a lot of room to grow IMO. Those dudes are irrelevant anyways. We're getting one of the top 5 guys.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Bouchard is already built like a mature 28 year old man. I think his ceiling is low. Not a lot of room to grow IMO. Those dudes are irrelevant anyways. We're getting one of the top 5 guys.

Top 5 according to who? I've seen a couple of these guys ranked in the top 5. All it takes is a scout like Mann or Dorion in his viewings to really like one of them.

Always happy to contribute irrelevant content on HF.

 

[BondraTime]

Bouchard is already built like a mature 28 year old man. I think his ceiling is low. Not a lot of room to grow IMO. Those dudes are irrelevant anyways. We're getting one of the top 5 guys.

I mean guessing you don't realize Dobson is one of the top 5 guys?

 

[branch]

I mean guessing you don't realize Dobson is one of the top 5 guys?

My top 5 is Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Wahlstrom

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

My top 5 is Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Wahlstrom

irrelevant

 

[branch]

irrelevant

That's the consensus top 3. And those USNTDP guys are studs. Really high on them. I think their player development is ahead of Canada's at this point IMO, and they can play in the AHL right away instead of that ludicrous 20 years old rule. I don't know why you're being sensitive about the irrelevant thing. I didn't call your input irrelevant, I just meant that those guys are irrelevant given the context.