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NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

Wth the 4th OA, who do we pick

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aligator

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Jan 3, 2008
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Micklebot said:
What does this even mean? Are you trying to suggest the return for Karlsson/Hoffman might include picks that could become lottery picks next draft? That doesn't really change the value of swapping 4th OA this year for our 1st round pick next year. It just gives us another chance at a pick that could very well be better than our current pick.
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The Sens are not going to give up the 2018 pick. It would make no sense whatsoever.
 
BondraTime

BondraTime

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Nov 20, 2005
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Sensung said:
And where did you have Vegas projected last year?

How about the Sens?

When was the last time this franchise played to the projections?

If history teaches us anything, the Sens will unexpectedly squeak into a playoff spot next season. Still feel like it's a good idea to bet against your team?

How will the move affect fan morale?
How will the move affect ticket sales?
How will the move affect team morale?

Sorry, no sale.
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well yeah, that's why they can't give it up. It's a PR disaster. Not because it's best for the team.
 
Micklebot

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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Sensung said:
I don't care about your projections. They can change rapidly in a year.

To mitigate risk, the Sens should take the sure top level prospect this season.
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Teams know how deep drafts are well ahead. Yes, rankings change, but seldom does what is expected to be a very deep draft become a poor or average draft.

There is without a doubt merit to the option of swapping 4th OA for next years 1st. There's risk to doing it, just as there is risk to staying put with 4th OA, but there's the potential for a very big payoff as well.

The thing is, to get out of the hole we're in if we trade off Karlsson, Zadina (if he's even available) simply isn't going to move the needle. Nice player, but we'll be able to get a nice player next year too.

The reality is we're probably finishing next year as a bottom 10 team in the league. the downgrade from Zadina, or whomever we pick, to whoever gets picked 10OA next year won't be insurmountable. But, the difference between the guys expected to go top 3 next season and Zadina this year is massive.

If we can flip 4OA plus something for 2nd OA, I'd do that, but I don't think it is happening. Actually, before the news broke, Hoffman + 4OA might have been an enticing deal for the Canes who need help up front.
 
BondraTime

BondraTime

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Sensung said:
The point is obvious and context was provide. The NHL is highly unpredictable.
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Of course it is. That doesn't mean you throw all signs of regression to the side and say "look at Vegas!! Anything can happen!!!"

No. We are taking into account we were the worst team in the NHL for the last 70 games of the season, and are about to trade our top goal scorer for a diminished return, possibly losing Karlsson, adding salary onto the contracts of Ceci and Sone to the account of ~6 million, another year with an older Anderson. No Brassard. Etc.

No, I'm not going to take the simplistic easy way out of saying the league is unpredictable. I'm going to look at the context and facts heading into the year.
 
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Sensung

Sensung

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Oct 3, 2017
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BondraTime said:
Of course it is. That doesn't mean you throw all signs of regression to the side and say "look at Vegas!! Anything can happen!!!"

No. We are taking into account we were the worst team in the NHL for the last 70 games of the season, and are about to trade our top goal scorer for a diminished return, possibly losing Karlsson, adding salary onto the contracts of Ceci and Sone to the account of ~6 million, another year with an older Anderson. No Brassard. Etc.

No, I'm not going to take the simplistic easy way out of saying the league is unpredictable. I'm going to look at the context and facts heading into the year.
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Where did you have the Sens finishing this past season at the start of the year?
Where did you have the Sens finishing after the Duchene trade?

I'm assuming you looked at the context and facts before making those predictions, right?

So how accurate do you believe you will be this time around?
 
BondraTime

BondraTime

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Sensung said:
Where did you have the Sens finishing this past season at the start of the year?
Where did you have the Sens finishing after the Duchene trade?

I'm assuming you looked at the context and facts before making those predictions, right?

So how accurate do you believe you will be this time around?
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Go look. I had them as at best a bubble playoff team before the year started. How about you? I've been predicting this downfall for nearly two years....

I believe I will be quite accurate this time. Especially with losing guys like Brassard and Hoffman for sure with the potential for Karlsson as well.
 
Sensung

Sensung

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Oct 3, 2017
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BondraTime said:
Go look. I had them as at best a bubble playoff team before the year started. How about you? I've been precmeicting this downfall for nearly two years....

I believe I will be quite accurate this time. Especially with losing guys like Brassard and Hoffman for sure with the potential for Karlsson as well.
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So you missed by 14 spots...

But you're sure for this coming season even though we have no idea what the roster will look like when this decision needs to be made...
 
BondraTime

BondraTime

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Sensung said:
So you missed by 14 spots...

But you're sure for this coming season even though we have no idea what the roster will look like when this decision needs to be made...
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Playoff Bubble team at best...not playoff team....


How about you? I'm sure you predicted this bad season?
 
BondraTime

BondraTime

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Sensung said:
I'm not the one advocating thowing away a 4th overall based on my prognostic skills...you are!
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What's your point? That you don't have one? You're the one defending the Sens not finishing low next year with zero reasons other than "the league is unpredictable".

Bring something of substance to the table other than trying to discredit me and you might get somewhere.
 
Micklebot

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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Sensung said:
I'm not the one advocating thowing away a 4th overall based on my prognostic skills...you are!
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Nobodies advocating throwing away a 4th OA. What's being suggested is rolling the dice to see if we can get a much better asset by waiting a year, and while the risk in doing so is certainly up for debate, it's nowhere near throwing away the pick. It's more akin to somebody advocating choosing a Tkachuk level player vs Wahlstrom vs Bouchard vs Dobson level player except the with the fringe benefit of maybe we end up with Dahlin should the balls fall in our favour.

It's funny, because tons of people have advocated trading back as far as 8th or 10th OA, just to get an extra 2nd round pick or something. That's the reality of 4th OA this year, it's not separated from 10th OA by all that much this year. If we had a pick in the 8-10th OA slot, there'd be no where near the friction with suggesting we hand it off to Colorado, but in reality, the player we get at 4th may not be all that different than who's available at 8th-10th because of how wide open it is this year.
 
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Sensung

Sensung

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BondraTime said:
What's your point? That you don't have one? You're the one defending the Sens not finishing low next year with zero reasons other than "the league is unpredictable".

Bring something of substance to the table other than trying to discredit me and you might get somewhere.
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My point, is quite simple.

We both agree the NHL is unpredictable, even when we have all the facts in place at the start of a season. The Sens will have to make this decision well before they have all the pertinent data, thus making the situation even more unpredictable.

In a situation with an extremely high degree of unpredictability, the prudent course of action is to mitigate risk, not go for a long shot to get a moderate upgrade on a top level prospect.

Even ignoring the PR nightmare created by betting against your own team, the decision to take this year's top 4 selection is a slam dunk.
 
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