If there’s no difference in the 3-8 range of this draft wouldn’t it be best to forfeit the 4th to calorado and try and trade up from 22?
NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)
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Depends. Are you trading Karlsson or not. If you're trading Karlsson then you may not want to miss out on the three high end right shot D in this year's draft. I haven't seen much of next year's D-crop but McCagg in his guide said that so far it's not looking like a great year for D.
From a statistical perspective you shouldn't forfeit the 4th this year unless you believe there is a large discrepancy between the two years because in all likelihood even if you finish 2nd last again next year, you're most likely picking 4th.
L'Aveuglette
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Really seems like rankings between 4 and 7-8 are becoming more and more interchangeable. Tkachuk certainly isn't the obvious #4 anymore. I'm seeing all four of Bouchard, Boqvist, Dobson and Hughes being ranked #4 on various lists as well. Seems like teams with those picks will be drafting primarily for need rather than consensus bpa since there isn't really any past the top-3.
DJB
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We need to give up this pick, recoup an asset for doing so and get pur 2019 pick back if we are moving Karlsson and Hoffman
FolignoQuantumLeap
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Alternate strategy for me would be to trade down to pick up another or a few more picks. Still pick up a top 10 prospect then maybe use the acquired assets to move 22 up to a point where they can still get a guy in their top 10-15. Brown, Chabot, White, Chlapik, Formenton + a couple 1sts this year to kick start the rebuild. Use Duchene, Karlsson and Hoffman to stack picks in next years draft despite not having our own plus get a few young prospects ready to play this coming year. With no hope of playoffs next year or a 1st round pick just go for straight up volume for 2019 while giving key prospects ice time in the NHL and AHL.
DJB
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DrunkUncleDenis
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I always laughed when I read people "had a dream last night" about the draft.
But it just happened to me. And I was the lucky guy making the selection.
Dobson was picked third. I struggled between Bouchard and Hughes, but ultimately chose Hugues. Zadina was MIA from this dream entirely.
Oh, and there were two Sandins.
But it just happened to me. And I was the lucky guy making the selection.
Dobson was picked third. I struggled between Bouchard and Hughes, but ultimately chose Hugues. Zadina was MIA from this dream entirely.
Oh, and there were two Sandins.
YouGotAStuGoing
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toxic poster
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toxic poster
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i would also like us to look at dellandrea at 22 if we're not going to be taking a defenseman there(take sandin pls). guy was a near p/g player on the worst team in the OHL as a 17 year old with no help at all on offense really. say you were to switch him and hayton - hayton scores 40 points while dellandrea scores ~75-80 probably.
Anyone think that the Sens scorch earth at the draft, trading Karl and Hoff, and handover the pick to Colorado in the process. Maybe recouping another first in this years draft as part of one of the Karl and Hoff deals (EDM 10th pick perhaps). I mean at this point I can't see Karlsson staying so it might be the best course of action
Micklebot
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If are forced into trading both Karlsson and Hoffman, and we can get multiple 1st round picks in doing so, including a top 10 pick this year, I'd be fine with handing over 4th OA to keep next years pick.
Lets say in trading Karlsson and Hoffman, we land the following;
10 OA (for Hoff, probably dreaming at this point though), Glass, Theodore, conditional 2019 1st (on Karlsson re-signing, I know terrible return)
We draft whoever is left from the top 10 guys in the draft (Wahlstrom, Kotkaniewmi, Kravstov, Bouchard, Hughes, Dobson), along with somebody at 22nd (Miller, Lunderstrom, Bokk, Kaut, Wilde, ect)
We're then left with the following to build on going forward:
NHL core pieces: Duchene, Stone, Chabot,
Blue chip prospects:Glass, Theodore, Brown, 2018 top 10 pick, 2018 22nd OA pick, 2019 1st round pick.
High end prospects: White, Batherson, Formenton, Gustavsson,
That's 13 very promising pieces to start from, and we have some decent filler pieces in Pageau, Ceci, Dzingel, Wolanin, Borowiecki, as well as some tier two prospects like Jaros and Lajoie.
Definitely a step back, and a lot of risk that Stone and Duchene will buy into a full rebuild.
Dzingel-Duchene-Stone
Formenton-Brown-Glass
Ryan-Pageau-Batherson
Paajarvi-Paul-Pyatt
Chabot-Ceci
Theodore-Jaros
Wolanin-Boro
That lineup will struggle next season, securing us a high pick and leaving us with:
2018 top 10 pick, 2018 22nd OA, and 2019 top 10 pick to build on it going forward.
I think that could set us up to be pretty competitive in 2 to 3 years (ie 20-21 or 21-22 season) and that's without UFA deals.
Pretty much what I was thinking, again this is based on the premise Karl has made up his mind (which according to Dreger it doesn't sound like has happened yet)
stempniaksen
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If that's the return for Karlsson can we at least pretend they take Ryan too? Looks about right though.
Micklebot
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I just wanted to be conservative on the return, and frankly, if we are going scorched earth, keeping Ryan isn't a bad idea, as we need warm bodies. I'd rather the better return than trying to move Ryan in the package, but yeah, without Ryan I'd rather get a bit more.
the sens arent giving up the 4th overall to colorado. Its extremely hard to get the top pick in any draft and i doubt the sens will suck to that degree even if karlsson is traded.
I still think he signs if the right contract is given to him
I still think he signs if the right contract is given to him
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They almost assuredly will suck the big one if Karlsson is traded. The team doesn't work at that point. It was structured around him moving the puck for 1/2 the game. People seem to forget that we finished 2nd last with Karlsson and Hoffman producing well. Without them...?
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#GirlBoss #Vibes
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I honestly feel better doing this than picking a guy at 4th who needs a couple years and can't contribute right away, trading Karlsson for futures, Hoff for a pick. Because at that point the team will be finished before they even start next year, and a proper rebuild can take place with our 2019 pick.
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Even then maybe that 1st year is a learning experience where he puts up 20-30 pts. Not really in impact player territory.
Micklebot
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If they trade both Karlsson and Hoffman for futures and not immediate help, odds are good they finish in the bottom 5-8 of the league or worse next season. There's certainly no guarantee that they end up with a higher pick, but next years draft is considered a bit deeper, so picking 8th for example, may not yield any worse a pick. We'd essentially be kicking the can down the road, but with the chance of upgrading. The risk would be if we are much better, and end up with a pick in the ~15 range or, I guess a miracle happens and we make the playoffs.
The assumption isn't that we will be a worse team, it's that the expected difference in the quality of the pick will be worth the potential off winning the lottery and getting into the top 3.
Zadina could easily get 20-30 goals next year alone, let alone 20-30 points 2 years from now.
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Wo knows, honestly. And what if he is picked already? There's no one else that is NHL ready in that spot.
Sensung
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The odds of drafting in the top 4 again next season are low.
There is no rational case for giving up this year's pick.
There is no rational case for giving up this year's pick.
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#GirlBoss #Vibes
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Mitigation. The changes on the horizon for the team are incredibly obvious. We look to essentially be heading into a rebuild. Who rebuilds without your 1st round pick in a very deep draft?
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