2018-19 Roster Speculation Pt. 3: Started from the bottom now we're here

[GellMann]

Which one do you want?

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Either one is exactly what I was looking for, thanks much.

 

[Chainshot]

Watching Veronneau and Kuffner... wondering what it will take to get one or the other (or happily both).

 

[Gabrielor]

Casey Mittelstadt is becoming a problem.

Botts put his chips in that this guy was ready, and he's not. There's also no fix to this without spending assets.

Tough situation.

 

[Chainshot]

Casey Mittelstadt is becoming a problem.

Botts put his chips in that this guy was ready, and he's not. There's also no fix to this without spending assets.

Tough situation.

The only thing to do is roll with the struggle and work to make him better. They spent time working on building up Thompson's confidence, I don't see that being done with Mitts.

 

[Gabrielor]

The only thing to do is roll with the struggle and work to make him better. They spent time working on building up Thompson's confidence, I don't see that being done with Mitts.

Yeah, the big problem is that it’s way easier to pull Thompson from the lineup right now. They’d have to run eichel erod Sobotka larsson.

 

[Fezzy126]

Casey Mittelstadt is becoming a problem.

Botts put his chips in that this guy was ready, and he's not. There's also no fix to this without spending assets.

Tough situation.

There's no reason we can't send him down to the Amerks and give Sam a run at center. Roll with a center spine of 9-23-71-22 in the mean time.

If he's not ready let him figure it out at a lower level, Kyle Conner got the same treatment at the same age.

 

[Gabrielor]

There's no reason we can't send him down to the Amerks and give Sam a run at center. Roll with a center spine of 9-23-71-22 in the mean time.

If he's not ready let him figure it out at a lower level, Kyle Conner got the same treatment at the same age.

I'd love that, but they seem convinced that they can't ever try Sam at center again for some reason.

 

[GellMann]

I took advantage of the lull before finals week. Here are the projected point totals for every team's second-highest-scoring center.

The Sabres are getting less than half of the mean/median 2C production. Less than a quarter of that of the league-leading 2C.

 

[GellMann]

I also spent 3 hours going through every GDT to get the line combos and then Natural Stat Trick's slow game reports to bring you this:

Since we discovered the "shutdown line" in LA, Berglund-Larsson-Girgensons, here are how the splits play out:

With the shutdown line intact we've played 13 games. The Sabres post a 52.14 CF%, the non-Eichel lines post a 51.25% CF%, and our non-Eichel lines score 1.62 goals per game.

Without the shutdown line, ie, shoving Thompson or Vlad places they shouldn't be, or sitting one of those guys for funzies, or Berglund being hurt for a couple games there, the Sabres post a 43.6 CF%, the non-Eichel lines post a 41.75 CF%, and the non-Eichel lines score 0.9 goals per game.

ie, with the shutdown line providing a backbone of play and tiring out the other team so that, instead of having to get to the d-zone, fight the puck back, and then transition and try to create, our best lines can hit the ice with the puck already, our non-Eichel-line goal scoring increases EIGHTY PERCENT and our shot attempt splits increase TEN PERCENT, which is a gap that separates the best in this league from the worst.

 

[Zip15]

I took advantage of the lull before finals week. Here are the projected point totals for every team's second-highest-scoring center.

View attachment 163125

The Sabres are getting less than half of the mean/median 2C production. Less than a quarter of that of the league-leading 2C.

Where could we ever find one of those "2C's" about which you speak?

 

[GellMann]

Where could we ever find one of those "2C's" about which you speak?

I know what you're ribbing at there.

It's now a valid question though, looking forward in the spirit of this thread as opposed to another thread on these boards.

There's a lot riding on CM.

 

[ZZamboni]

I am in no way worried about just turned 20 year old Mitts 30 games into his NHL career

He’s developing nicely.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I hope Botts is sniffing the trade market for another center on the cheap who can play above Mittlestadt.

Reinhart could be that guy, but for some reason that bridge was burned quickly.

 

[joshjull]

Where could we ever find one of those "2C's" about which you speak?

On Jack’s right wing.

 

[joshjull]

Would love to have someone in the press ask Botts if he still views Sam as part of our depth at center. Because he mentioned that several times in the offseason and I don’t see any evidence the coach feels the same.

 

[Zip15]

On Jack’s right wing.

I'd like to see it tried, but I'm resigned to the fact it isn't going to happen. I'm not sure Casey is going to be a capable 2C this year or next - though I think he will grow into such a role eventually - and we don't have another top-6 center in the organization (who will be tried there). If we are going to fill that role this year or next, I think it's coming from outside the organization, and that will cost assets or a UFA contract, which are usually awful.

 

[joshjull]

I'd like to see it tried, but I'm resigned to the fact it isn't going to happen. I'm not sure Casey is going to be a capable 2C this year or next - though I think he will grow into such a role eventually - and we don't have another top-6 center in the organization (who will be tried there). If we are going to fill that role this year or next, I think it's coming from outside the organization, and that will cost assets.

Are we talking about our top defensive center or our secondary offensive center. Because we don’t have a “2nd line center” in the way some of you are speaking.

I’m more worried about top defensive center getting addressed. A role Mitts is not in nor ever will be.

 

[joshjull]

@Zip15

I hear what you’re saying about Mitts. We definitely need him to develop for success in the long term.

But I’m more concerned about the top defensive center, at least in terms of how Housley uses the lines and distributes minutes. Long term we badly need an upgrade to Sobtoka or Erod in that role.

 

[Djp]

Skinner-Eichel-xxx
Sheary-xxx-Reinhart
xxx-Mitts-Okposo
Berglund+Larson-Girgs

xxx= Poms, Thompson, ERod, Sobs, Wilson, Elie


Other option

Skinner-Eichel-Poms
Sherry-Mitts-Reinhart
Thompson-Girgs/ERod-Okposo
Berglund-Larsson-ERod/Girgs

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

@Zip15

I hear what you’re saying about Mitts. We definitely need him to develop for success in the long term.

But I’m more concerned about the top defensive center, at least in terms of how Housley uses the lines and distributes minutes. Long term we badly need an upgrade to Sobtoka or Erod in that role.

They actually have tough minutes pretty well spoken for when Phil can be bothered to dress the checking line. Between GLB in the defensive zone and the amount of resources most teams dedicate to the Eichel unit, the middle 6 typically sees other secondary scorers and bottom pairings.

While your two-way guy adds the most flexibility, improving the secondary shooting talent also does a fair bit. Especially if Reinhart stays on the top line, vacating 10-15 productive minutes.

 

[hizzoner]

When I went to the Leafs game I really did not notice Casey much from where I sat. But I watched the game again and to my surprise saw a lot of nifty moves--some good chances for him and some he created for his line mates. So I am going to cut him some slack. As for today's game - Just not a masochist so I deleted it unwatched. Lots more games to go. Enjoyed the Leafs/Bruins game instead!

 

[Sabres]

I also spent 3 hours going through every GDT to get the line combos and then Natural Stat Trick's slow game reports to bring you this:

Since we discovered the "shutdown line" in LA, Berglund-Larsson-Girgensons, here are how the splits play out:

With the shutdown line intact we've played 13 games. The Sabres post a 52.14 CF%, the non-Eichel lines post a 51.25% CF%, and our non-Eichel lines score 1.62 goals per game.

Without the shutdown line, ie, shoving Thompson or Vlad places they shouldn't be, or sitting one of those guys for funzies, or Berglund being hurt for a couple games there, the Sabres post a 43.6 CF%, the non-Eichel lines post a 41.75 CF%, and the non-Eichel lines score 0.9 goals per game.

ie, with the shutdown line providing a backbone of play and tiring out the other team so that, instead of having to get to the d-zone, fight the puck back, and then transition and try to create, our best lines can hit the ice with the puck already, our non-Eichel-line goal scoring increases EIGHTY PERCENT and our shot attempt splits increase TEN PERCENT, which is a gap that separates the best in this league from the worst.

It's almost as if our coach is... an idiot.

 

[Aladyyn]

@Zip15

I hear what you’re saying about Mitts. We definitely need him to develop for success in the long term.

But I’m more concerned about the top defensive center, at least in terms of how Housley uses the lines and distributes minutes. Long term we badly need an upgrade to Sobtoka or Erod in that role.

I don't think we should be too concerned with filling Housley's vision long term.

 

[Aladyyn]

One interesting name that popped up is Danault from MTL. Young, riding an extremely low sh%, and his GM is Marc Bergevin. We could get a steal there.

 

[Hasek]

Why not swap Mitts and Reinhart. Get Casey on the scoresheet and boost his confidence.