2017 Offseason Thread 3.0

[KingsFan7824]

i think people are over the top re Brown - last year he was one of our best. His points were ok but he still is near the top in hits etc. Yes he is likely 1 - 1.5 overpaid but it isn't as bad as people make out. Kopitar and Gaborik were more of a problem last year. Ok with moving him as part of a trade which sees us bring in a player we need, bt wouldn't give away assets just to get the cap room.

As is usually the case, the bigger issue is the years rather than the cap hit. Accounting for an extra $1.5m next year isn't that difficult, but accounting for $6m until 2022 is more complicated.

If trading assets to get rid of the contract meant being able to bring in a younger guy somehow, that's worth looking at it. If it's just to sign another 30 year old to $6m for 5 years, that's more complicated.

 

[deeshamrock]

As much as it'd be nice to move Brown's contract, I'm hoping that, should it happen, the Kings use that cap space wisely. A lot of people are married to the idea of trading Brown, and forget that this move on its own simply rids the Kings of a great third-line winger (and a leader) at a high cost.

and that's part of the problem, he's being paid as a top 6 forward. Nobody would complain if he was in the 4M range. I don't think they should trade I'm now, given that his problems, downward spirial (I think) are tied to Sutter. I think Luc and Blake are willing to give him a year with Stevens and if he has a really good year and they need the $$ for DD or other big name contract (say they do trade AM or JM for a top forward who has an expiring contract) Brown's trade value would be a bit higher and if they had to eat 1.5 or so, it's one less year.
But I think Brown deserves this year Sutter free.

 

[Herby]

As is usually the case, the bigger issue is the years rather than the cap hit.

Exactly!

This is something Dean Lombardi just never figured out (the Lucic offer showed it).

Having guys in their late 20's and early 30's signed to contracts like Gaborik, Richards, Brown had is not a positive thing. I hope that Blake has learned from the poor decisions of Dean when it comes to contract length.

 

[bland]

I've yet to see anyone who wants Brown gone come up with a suitable replacement for him.

He is a top-6 winger who has consistently played his way into the bottom 6. Looking at him as a third liner is a misnomer, and it cannot be separated from his contract.

Brown is poor defensively​ and useless along the boards. He still approaches the game as though he is a top six forward whose scoring ability excuses his lack of detail work in other aspects of his game.

He has no value. His contract is ridiculous. Losing him is totally inconsequential, he is a net negative player whose minutes should be given to a younger player as the team's best chances are in the future, not the present.

The team would be better off giving Dowd, Shore, Kempe and Brodzinski third line time. Brown won't make a lick of difference next year.

I don't advocate giving up a first round pick to move him, the value of that pick is greater than the value of that cap space over the next five years. The Kings won't be contenders again until they can develop an asset list that would allow them to not only build from within, but give them a basis for making quality deals at the right time as they get closer. Simply adding that space now won't make enough of a difference..

 

[The Tikkanen]

With the cap staying the same now is the time to trade Brown to Vegas. The only reason you keep Brown is if you believe 100% his decline in play was due to his dislike of Sutter. If you're Blake though you look to put your stamp on the team and if the same roster returns, which many fans shockingly think should happen, nothing will change. This was an incredibly boring team to watch night in and night out, maybe with the time between the last game and now many of those fans have forgotten. You're an injury away from seeing Brown, Lewis or Shore toil away in the top 6 with their inability to put up better numbers with more ice time. The Kings absolutely cannot return the same roster-the talent and desire to create offense just isn't there.

 

[johnjm22]

With the cap staying the same now is the time to trade Brown to Vegas.

How does that help the team?

We're not going to get some game changing UFA with the freed up cap space. And if we try to acquire a player via trade, we won't have our main bargaining chip (a first round pick) because we had to give it to Vegas to get them to take Brown.

 

[Reaper45]

He is a top-6 winger who has consistently played his way into the bottom 6. Looking at him as a third liner is a misnomer, and it cannot be separated from his contract.

Brown is poor defensively​ and useless along the boards. He still approaches the game as though he is a top six forward whose scoring ability excuses his lack of detail work in other aspects of his game.

He has no value. His contract is ridiculous. Losing him is totally inconsequential, he is a net negative player whose minutes should be given to a younger player as the team's best chances are in the future, not the present.

The team would be better off giving Dowd, Shore, Kempe and Brodzinski third line time. Brown won't make a lick of difference next year.

I don't advocate giving up a first round pick to move him, the value of that pick is greater than the value of that cap space over the next five years. The Kings won't be contenders again until they can develop an asset list that would allow them to not only build from within, but give them a basis for making quality deals at the right time as they get closer. Simply adding that space now won't make enough of a difference..

Again I'm not arguing with you on any of that, I'm simply saying, who could come in and replace the production Brown provides and at a price that makes sense, considering to move Brown the Kings will have to retain salary.

If it costs the Kings 2 million in retention to move Brown, you still have to pay his replacement x number of dollars. So what forward out there can provide what he does for a price that makes sense to actually move Brown out?

 

[lumbergh]

and that's part of the problem, he's being paid as a top 6 forward. Nobody would complain if he was in the 4M range. I don't think they should trade I'm now, given that his problems, downward spirial (I think) are tied to Sutter. I think Luc and Blake are willing to give him a year with Stevens and if he has a really good year and they need the $$ for DD or other big name contract (say they do trade AM or JM for a top forward who has an expiring contract) Brown's trade value would be a bit higher and if they had to eat 1.5 or so, it's one less year.
But I think Brown deserves this year Sutter free.

Imma gonna let you all guess which six Kings forwards had the most 5 vs. 5 points in 16-17. That's a pretty good indication as to who your top six forwards are right?

Extra points if you put them in order.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Exactly!

This is something Dean Lombardi just never figured out (the Lucic offer showed it).

Having guys in their late 20's and early 30's signed to contracts like Gaborik, Richards, Brown had is not a positive thing. I hope that Blake has learned from the poor decisions of Dean when it comes to contract length.

I doubt he didn't figure that out. I doubt he actually thought he could sign Lucic either. He just wanted to keep it going after 2014. I think he figured on a couple decent seasons out of Brown's new contract, but his production went down on the last year of his previous deal. We know the story with Richards. Gaborik was needed because Brown stopped scoring.

Lombardi believed in certain ways of doing things. After winning, he felt the best road to go down, the one he gave the benefit of the doubt to, was keeping as many guys together from a winner as possible. That philosophy worked until it didn't. Here we are today saying how much we think the Kings miss the attitude of Stoll, and Mitchell, and Regehr, and Greene, and Richards, and Williams, and Scuderi. He tried to keep that. Then everything went wrong in 14-15, other than Gaborik.

Maybe Lombardi knew that Kopitar, Doughty, Brown, and Carter weren't up to the task of leading this team anywhere without that base of underlying support. Maybe they are, who knows. The future isn't written yet. We'll find out for sure.

 

[USE Fi]

Important dates.

 

[LAKings88]

With/if Brown being traded to Vegas.
Gaborik on disabled list.
Muzzin traded.

(Drouin/???) Kopitar Kempe
Pearson Carter Toffoli
Mersch Dowd Brodzinski
Clifford Shore Lewis
Nolan

Forbort DD
Amart Ladue
Gravel McNabb
McDermid

I think LA would rather keep Muzzin but I think he has the best trade value.
Still could use a third line center upgrade.
Not sure Kempe or Brodz can fill in on Kopi's wing.

 

[KINGS17]

Gaborik isn't staying on the DL forever.

 

[LAKings88]

Gaborik isn't staying on the DL forever.

They call him Mr. Glass.

 

[fsanford]

How does that help the team?

We're not going to get some game changing UFA with the freed up cap space. And if we try to acquire a player via trade, we won't have our main bargaining chip (a first round pick) because we had to give it to Vegas to get them to take Brown.

in 2019-2020 the Kings already have tied up 53,000,000 in 11 guys (Richards Cap hit is included in this number.)

This does not include Doughty who will probably should at least maintain his $7,000,000 salary.

So 60,000,000 for 12 guys. Hard to say where cap will be but lets say 78,000,000 million. Given what's happen with ESPN, and how people are cutting the cable hard to imagine cable networks shelling out bigger bucks.

So 18 million for 10 or 11 guys. And by then Forbort, Kempe (if he performs), Dowd if Vegas does not take him him, will have pretty good raises, so we are down to maybe 8 guys, but we probably are down to 11 million to sign 8.


There was an opportunity to buyout Richards, Kings chose not to and are paying dearly.

Brown had a good season, but this is not about his play today, its about 2-3 years down the road and Doughty's deal, and what happen if Pearson and Toffoli, average 30 goals per year.

Better to give up Brown and the 1st, and a guarantee, that Vegas will not take a couple of unprotected players than, than hope the number 11 pick actually turns into something.

Long Term Cap>11th pick, especially if the CAP remains flat.

Assume this trading of pick and Brown would be a 1 year opportunity, if you don't take advantage you probably are resigned to wearing the millstone around your neck for the next 3-4 years

 

[KINGS17]

in 2019-2020 the Kings already have tied up 53,000,000 in 11 guys (Richards Cap hit is included in this number.)

This does not include Doughty who will probably should at least maintain his $7,000,000 salary.

So 60,000,000 for 12 guys. Hard to say where cap will be but lets say 78,000,000 million. Given what's happen with ESPN, and how people are cutting the cable hard to imagine cable networks shelling out bigger bucks.

So 18 million for 10 or 11 guys. And by then Forbort, Kempe (if he performs), Dowd if Vegas does not take him him, will have pretty good raises, so we are down to maybe 8 guys, but we probably are down to 11 million to sign 8.


There was an opportunity to buyout Richards, Kings chose not to and are paying dearly.

Brown had a good season, but this is not about his play today, its about 2-3 years down the road and Doughty's deal, and what happen if Pearson and Toffoli, average 30 goals per year.

Better to give up Brown and the 1st, and a guarantee, that Vegas will not take a couple of unprotected players than, than hope the number 11 pick actually turns into something.

Long Term Cap>11th pick, especially if the CAP remains flat.

Assume this trading of pick and Brown would be a 1 year opportunity, if you don't take advantage you probably are resigned to wearing the millstone around your neck for the next 3-4 years

You make some good points here, but I think Doughty is going to get a contract with at least $10.5M cap hit. If he doesn't, he will be moving on.

 

[Bandit]

in 2019-2020 the Kings already have tied up 53,000,000 in 11 guys (Richards Cap hit is included in this number.)

This does not include Doughty who will probably should at least maintain his $7,000,000 salary.

So 60,000,000 for 12 guys. Hard to say where cap will be but lets say 78,000,000 million. Given what's happen with ESPN, and how people are cutting the cable hard to imagine cable networks shelling out bigger bucks.

So 18 million for 10 or 11 guys. And by then Forbort, Kempe (if he performs), Dowd if Vegas does not take him him, will have pretty good raises, so we are down to maybe 8 guys, but we probably are down to 11 million to sign 8.


There was an opportunity to buyout Richards, Kings chose not to and are paying dearly.

Brown had a good season, but this is not about his play today, its about 2-3 years down the road and Doughty's deal, and what happen if Pearson and Toffoli, average 30 goals per year.

Better to give up Brown and the 1st, and a guarantee, that Vegas will not take a couple of unprotected players than, than hope the number 11 pick actually turns into something.

Long Term Cap>11th pick, especially if the CAP remains flat.

Assume this trading of pick and Brown would be a 1 year opportunity, if you don't take advantage you probably are resigned to wearing the millstone around your neck for the next 3-4 years

Are they really paying dearly for it? Richards is costing us 1.575 for the next three years. Sure, it's not great but I don't think that's what's currently screwing the Kings. Kopitar, Brown and Gaborik's cap hits are really what's handcuffing them.

- Greene comes off the books after this year, that's 2.5 million back.
- If Lewis is taken in the expansion draft, that's 2 more million, McNabb 1.8 (He's also a UFA at season's end so if he blows he's gone regardless)

The real problem is getting quality players to fill the holes. They're not coming from within, and we don't have much to trade. This team is likely just going to tread water for a few years and be pretty mediocre. It will take some crazy luck like signing someone like Panarin out of the KHL or wherever (basically get a great talent for free) for this thing to turn around.

 

[johnjm22]

in 2019-2020 the Kings already have tied up 53,000,000 in 11 guys (Richards Cap hit is included in this number.)

This does not include Doughty who will probably should at least maintain his $7,000,000 salary.

So 60,000,000 for 12 guys. Hard to say where cap will be but lets say 78,000,000 million. Given what's happen with ESPN, and how people are cutting the cable hard to imagine cable networks shelling out bigger bucks.

So 18 million for 10 or 11 guys. And by then Forbort, Kempe (if he performs), Dowd if Vegas does not take him him, will have pretty good raises, so we are down to maybe 8 guys, but we probably are down to 11 million to sign 8.


There was an opportunity to buyout Richards, Kings chose not to and are paying dearly.

Brown had a good season, but this is not about his play today, its about 2-3 years down the road and Doughty's deal, and what happen if Pearson and Toffoli, average 30 goals per year.

Better to give up Brown and the 1st, and a guarantee, that Vegas will not take a couple of unprotected players than, than hope the number 11 pick actually turns into something.

Long Term Cap>11th pick, especially if the CAP remains flat.

Assume this trading of pick and Brown would be a 1 year opportunity, if you don't take advantage you probably are resigned to wearing the millstone around your neck for the next 3-4 years

In order to be competitive and stay under the cap long term, you need good young players coming up through your system on cheap contracts. Trading away a first round pick makes it harder to do that.

 

[LAKings88]

in 2019-2020 the Kings already have tied up 53,000,000 in 11 guys (Richards Cap hit is included in this number.)

This does not include Doughty who will probably should at least maintain his $7,000,000 salary.

So 60,000,000 for 12 guys. Hard to say where cap will be but lets say 78,000,000 million. Given what's happen with ESPN, and how people are cutting the cable hard to imagine cable networks shelling out bigger bucks.

So 18 million for 10 or 11 guys. And by then Forbort, Kempe (if he performs), Dowd if Vegas does not take him him, will have pretty good raises, so we are down to maybe 8 guys, but we probably are down to 11 million to sign 8.


There was an opportunity to buyout Richards, Kings chose not to and are paying dearly.

Brown had a good season, but this is not about his play today, its about 2-3 years down the road and Doughty's deal, and what happen if Pearson and Toffoli, average 30 goals per year.

Better to give up Brown and the 1st, and a guarantee, that Vegas will not take a couple of unprotected players than, than hope the number 11 pick actually turns into something.

Long Term Cap>11th pick, especially if the CAP remains flat.

Assume this trading of pick and Brown would be a 1 year opportunity, if you don't take advantage you probably are resigned to wearing the millstone around your neck for the next 3-4 years

Nice write up. My thoughts as well.

They need to shake loose of Brown and Gaborik. I still hope Gaborik retires but that is wishful thinking. It seems like every year a team is willing to take on dead space but I wonder for how much longer. Vegas already seems like the have made a deal for Clarkson, will they take another?

Just praying Kopi rebounds. That contract is becoming LA's worst. If you are gonna have fat contracts you need to keep draft picks. This year tho, I really want Brown off the books. He should not be paid like a number one winger.

 

[KingsFan7824]

They need to shake loose of Brown and Gaborik. I still hope Gaborik retires but that is wishful thinking. It seems like every year a team is willing to take on dead space but I wonder for how much longer. Vegas already seems like the have made a deal for Clarkson, will they take another?

There will always be teams willing and able to do that, but you have to have the right contract, or be willing to pay a steep enough price. If Brown/Gaborik had 1 year left on their deals, you could easily trade both of them today. Since it's 4 and 5 years though, teams don't want to deal with that. They have their own players they need to sign in the future. They don't want to have to account for $5m or $6m in 3 years. If a guy is so hurt he'll never play again, that's different. Then you don't have to worry about their cap hit. There's no indication Brown or Gaborik aren't planning on being on the ice for the next few years. Or, of course, in Gaborik's case, somewhere in the building trying to get back to playing because he's never badly hurt, just injured in various ways.

 

[LAKings88]

Maybe LA could entice Vegas without moving the #1 round pick. Maybe a guy like Clague if they are looking to take a forward such as Tippett.

Either way, Brown to Vegas will sting.

 

[fsanford]

Are they really paying dearly for it? Richards is costing us 1.575 for the next three years. Sure, it's not great but I don't think that's what's currently screwing the Kings. Kopitar, Brown and Gaborik's cap hits are really what's handcuffing them.

- Greene comes off the books after this year, that's 2.5 million back.
- If Lewis is taken in the expansion draft, that's 2 more million, McNabb 1.8 (He's also a UFA at season's end so if he blows he's gone regardless)

The real problem is getting quality players to fill the holes. They're not coming from within, and we don't have much to trade. This team is likely just going to tread water for a few years and be pretty mediocre. It will take some crazy luck like signing someone like Panarin out of the KHL or wherever (basically get a great talent for free) for this thing to turn around.

That is 1.5 million down a rat hole, yes they are paying dearly imho. Kings are already working with even less of a cap than many other teams in the NHL

The numbers I gave you took into account Greene already gone, McNab number gone too..

I am looking 2 years down the road. Not next year

Just like there is a cup window, we might be looking at shed yourself of the Brown contract window, it might only be this year.

Ladue is gonna get an increase, Forbort is gonna get an increase. If Kempe produces he is gonna get an increase. Rid yourself of Brown you got that part covered probably with cash left over.

You can pick up prospects in many ways. Imama deal is an example You look to Europe. Look for the late bloomer from college.

Guess Blake has to weigh does the 11th pick provide more benefit to the team than keeping a guy 5 more years til age 38, at 5.8 million.

Would you trade Kopi to Vegas to get rid of Brown, nope
Would you trade Colten Teubert (now of the Thomas Sabo Ice Tigers) and Brown to Vegas, yep.

Either decision is not wrong, but I think there are more avenues to restock than there are to correct what is almost an uncorrectable situation.

 

[Johnny Utah]

Nashville went deep with 4 solid D. Now thinking about it, I don't like the idea of trading Muzzin or Martinez.

Who are the Kings top 4 really? Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez, and Forbort? I wouldn't really call Forbort a top 4, he's a 5, 6 playing top pairing minutes and Doughty is making him look good. He is not Subban, Ellis, Josi, or Ekholm.

LaDue is unproven. Same with Gravel. McNabb had two decent years and one bad year.

In my mind, the Kings have only three top 4 D, Doughty, Martinez and Muzzin. Forbort, LaDue, Gravel, and McNabb are all on the outside for now. Greene is def a #6 guy and who knows where he stands.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

The Penguins won a Cup with a defense of Schultz, Maatta, Daley, Cole, Dumoulin, Hainsey, with Streit and Ruhwedel as their spares. No All-Stars on that blueline. Being smart and consistent seemed to overcome the lack of high end talent on defense. That blueline combined for 10 goals during their Cup run.

The Kings don't need a bunch of flashy names, but what they need is a smarter and more physical defense that can protect the blueline and the front of the net. The Penguins don't have any crushers on their blueline, but those guys knew how to use their sticks effectively and were always in great position and defended superbly. Things the Kings used to be good at.

Speaking of the Penguins, how much of a dumbass does Dean Lombardi appear to be now after he called the Penguins the "flavor of the month" last year? That's something I'd expect to read from your typical HF poster, not a GM who should realize how tough it is to assemble multi-time Cup champions.

 

[lumbergh]

Dustin Brown was not a problem this year. If Blake moves someone for cap purposes, it should be Marion Gaborik.

If left unprotected, I wouldn't be surprised if Vegas took Brown.

 

[LAKings88]

DL should have known when a Sharks team that spanked LA was in turn spanked in the finals.