Most first round top 20 picks take 2 years not 5 A 5 year projection is a project fyi Forbort took 5 to play his first game and i believe he was the last one of his draft year to make his nhl debut. If this team is to improve there going to need forwards to step in every year on elcs. Its the best way to counter balance all the long term contracts imo Yes we need some d as well in the future however we need forwards a lot more
I did not say play their first game. I said and you even highlighted "Most of these guys take 4 to 5 years before they're actually on the team contributing in any positive manner." Maybe we have different ideas of what contributing in a positive matter means. To me to throw a rookie in there for a limited amount of games, for limited minutes, who ends up being unproductive or underproductive at that position I don't count. I also said 4 to five years. In most cases
year 1 post draft - back to CHL, or their jr leagues
year 2 post draft - graduate to AHL or stay in jr league
year 3 post draft - figure out the AHL get taste of NHL, rookie season
year 4 post draft -
courtesy of HOCKEYDB.com
2016 draft
- 3 players played over 28 games in
year 1. Matthews, Laine, and Tkachuk.
2015 draft
1 Edmonton Connor McDavid C Erie Otters [OHL] 127 46 102 148 44 2016-17
2 Buffalo Jack Eichel C Boston University [H-East] 142 48 65 113 44 2016-17
4 Toronto Mitch Marner C London Knights [OHL] 77 19 42 61 38 2016-17
5 Carolina Noah Hanifin D Boston College [H-East] 160 8 43 51 48 2016-17
6 New Jersey Pavel Zacha L Sarnia Sting [OHL] 71 8 18 26 19 2016-17
7 Philadelphia Ivan Provorov D Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL] 82 6 24 30 34 2016-17
8 Columbus Zach Werenski D U. of Michigan [Big-10] 78 11 36 47 14 2016-17
10 Colorado Mikko Rantanen R TPS Turku [SM-liiga] 84 20 19 39 24 2016-17
11 Florida Lawson Crouse L Kingston Frontenacs [OHL] 72 5 7 12 48
24 Philadelphia Travis Konecny R Ottawa 67's [OHL] 70 11 17 28 49
this is
2 years now removed from the draft. I highlighted in red the guys I would consider contributing at their position in a positive manner. Kudos to Rantanen and Zacha who are getting close but not yet there.
2014 draft
1 Florida Aaron Ekblad D Barrie Colts [OHL] 227 37 59 96 131 2016-17
2 Buffalo Sam Reinhart C Kootenay Ice [WHL] 167 40 50 90 18 2016-17
3 Edmonton Leon Draisaitl C Prince Albert Raiders 191 50 87 137 44 2016-17
4 Calgary Sam Bennett C Kingston Frontenacs [OHL] 159 31 32 63 112 2016-17
8 Toronto William Nylander C MODO Hockey[SweHL] 103 28 46 74 36 2016-17
9 Winnipeg Nikolaj Ehlers L Halifax Mooseheads 154 40 62 102 59 2016-17
10 Anaheim Nick Ritchie L Peterborough Petes [OHL] 110 16 16 32 99 2016-17
11 Nashville Kevin Fiala L HV71 Jonkoping [SweHL] 60 12 5 17 18 2016-17
12 Arizona Brendan Perlini L Niagara IceDogs [OHL] 57 14 7 21 20 2016-17
15 Detroit Dylan Larkin C U.S. National [USHL] 160 40 37 77 71 2016-17
20 Chicago Nick Schmaltz C Green Bay Gamblers [USHL] 61 6 22 28 6 2016-17
21 St. Louis Robby Fabbri C Guelph Storm [OHL] 123 29 37 66 52 2016-17
24 Vancouver Jared McCann C Sault Ste. Marie [OHL] 98 10 15 25 36 2016-17
25 Boston David Pastrnak L Sodertalje SK [Swe-1] 172 59 64 123 62 2016-17
so about a dozen guys in
year 3 that are playing a good grouping of games but under half of those actually putting up great numbers.
2013 draft
1 Colorado Nathan MacKinnon C Halifax[QMJHL] 300 75 131 206 96 2016-17
2 Florida Aleksander Barkov C Tampere [SM-liiga] 252 73 98 171 44 2016-17
3 Tampa Bay Jonathan Drouin L Halifax [QMJHL] 164 29 66 95 54 2016-17
4 Nashville Seth Jones D Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 315 29 96 125 90 2016-17
5 Carolina Elias Lindholm C Brynas IF Gavle [SEL] 293 48 96 144 58 2016-17
6 Calgary Sean Monahan C Ottawa 67's [OHL] 319 107 110 217 58 2016-17
7 Edmonton Darnell Nurse D Sault Ste. Marie [OHL] 115 8 13 21 93 2016-17
8 Buffalo Rasmus Ristolainen D TPS Turku [SM-liiga] 273 25 85 110 123 2016-17
9 Vancouver Bo Horvat C London Knights [OHL] 231 49 68 117 61 2016-17
12 Phoenix Max Domi C London Knights [OHL] 140 27 63 90 112 2016-17
13 Winnipeg Josh Morrissey D Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 83 6 14 20 38 2016-17
14 Columbus Alexander Wennberg C Stockholm [Swe-1] 217 25 94 119 45 2016-17
16 Buffalo Nikita Zadorov D London Knights [OHL] 145 4 24 28 140 2016-17
17 Ottawa Curtis Lazar C Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] 180 13 26 39 36 2016-17
20 Detroit Anthony Mantha R Val d'Or Foreurs [QMJHL] 70 19 20 39 55 2016-17
23 Washington Andre Burakovsky L Malmo [Swe-1] 196 38 57 95 36 2016-17
27 Columbus Marko Dano C Bratislava Slovan [KHL] 107 17 25 42 34 2016-17
Year 4 over and yes we have a solid group starting to contribute at a higher level. Approximately 1/3 of the first round picks are contributing at a good level. Guys like Dano, Mantha, Lazar, Morrisey, Zadorov, Nurse are still bottom pairing forward and defence production wise but getting there.
All I am saying is after 2 years unless you are a wonderkid like McDavid, Matthews, Laine, Eckblad, Eichel you are not having these prospects step in and considered a productive member on a cup contender. We have to temper our expectations on these prospects. This is a weak draft, we have an outside 10 pick, and I hope I am really wrong but we wont see any great production out of him for 4 to 5 years. In 4 to 5 years we don't know what our team will look like.
5 years ago we had Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Stoll down the middle. We were loaded with Center prospects.
2012 Los Angeles Kings Top 10 Prospects
1. Tyler Toffoli, Right Wing
2. Derek Forbort, Defense
3. Nikolai Prokhorkin, Center
4. Jordan Weal, Center
5. Tanner Pearson, Left Wing
6. Jake Muzin, Defense
7. Linden Vey, Center
8. Nick Shore, Center
9. Thomas Hickey, Defense
10. Tomas Hyka, Right Wing
You wouldn't think we would need to draft a center but 5 years later we have Kopitar and Carter as our top 2, and we relied on Dowd and Shore on the bottom 2 who are not world beaters by any means. It is a position we are weak throughout the organization.
All I am saying is you take the BPA as you never know what your organization looks like when the prospects are actually ready to contribute at a higher level.